MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD S/T Pullback Looks Corrective

Price Signal Summary – AUD S/T Pullback Looks Corrective

• A bull theme in S&P E-minis remains intact and this week’s pullback appears to be a correction. This is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Initial key support lies at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 4348.95. A break of this average would strengthen a short-term bearish theme. The Eurostoxx 50 futures uptrend remains intact, however, a bearish corrective cycle this week has resulted in a move lower and the contract is approaching support at 4301.00, the Jun 8 low. This is a key short-term support and a break would signal scope for a deeper retracement
• GBPUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and this week’s pullback appears to be a correction. The break last week of 1.2680, the May 10 high and a bull trigger, strengthens bullish conditions - 1.2680 was a key medium-term hurdle for bulls and opens 1.2849. USDJPY is consolidating at its recent highs and the trend outlook remains bullish. Price has breached 141.65, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Jan 16 high. This reinforces bullish conditions and confirms a resumption of the uptrend. A strong rally last Thursday in AUDUSD reinforced bullish conditions and confirmed an extension of the bull cycle from May 31. This week’s move lower appears to be a correction and attention is on support at 0.6735, the 20-day EMA.
• The bear cycle in Gold remains intact and the yellow metal is trading closer to recent lows. Trendline support was breached last week - the line is drawn from the Nov 3 2022 low and intersects at $1975.7. The break reinforces a bearish condition and marks a resumption of the downtrend. WTI futures continue to appreciate and the contract is trading at this week’s highs. Despite recent gains, the outlook remains bearish and the contract is trading below resistance at $75.70, the Jun 5 high. Support at $67.21, May 31 low, has recently been pierced.
• Bund futures are trading closer to their recent highs. For now, recent gains are considered corrective. Resistance at 134.77, the Jun 12 high, is intact. A break of this level is required to expose key short-term resistance at 135.85, the Jun 1 high. A strong bounce in Gilt futures Tuesday has eased short-term bearish pressure. Gains - for now - would be considered corrective and the trend direction remains down. This week’s bearish start to the week confirmed a resumption of the downtrend.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
• RES 3: 1.1095 High Apr 26 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.1054 High May 8
• RES 1: 1.0995 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.0990 @ 05:23 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 1.0893 Low Jun 20
• SUP 2: 1.0842/0804 20-day EMA / Low Jun 15
• SUP 3: 1.0733 Low Jun 12
• SUP 4: 1.0667/35 Low Jun 6 / Low May 31 and the bear trigger

A bullish theme in EURUSD remains intact and the pair traded higher yesterday. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and price has arrived at 1.0986, 61.8% of the Apr 26 - May 31 downleg. A clear break of this level would signal scope for 1.1054, the May 8 high, ahead of key resistance at 1.1095, the Apr 26 high. Firm short-term support has been defined at 1.0893, the Jun 20 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.3000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 1.2977 0.764 proj of the Mar 8 - May 10 - May 25 price swing
• RES 2: 1.2877 High Apr 25 2022
• RES 1: 1.2849 0.618 proj of the Mar 8 - May 10 - May 25 price swing
• PRICE: 1.2761 @ 05:35 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 1.2680/30 High May 10 / Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: 1.2611/2505 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 1.2369 Low Jun 5 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.2308 Low May 25 and the bear trigger

GBPUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and this week’s pullback appears to be a correction. The break last week of 1.2680, the May 10 high and a bull trigger, strengthens bullish conditions - 1.2680 was a key medium-term hurdle for bulls and opens 1.2849, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition reflecting current conditions. Initial firm support is at 1.2630, the Jun 15 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Unwinding An Oversold Trend Condition

• RES 4: 0.8768 High May 5
• RES 3: 0.8719 High May 23
• RES 2: 0.8666 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8636 High Jun 5
• PRICE: 0.8611 @ 05:53 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 0.8518 Low Jun 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8477 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.8408 Low Aug 24 2023

The primary trend direction in EURGBP remains down, however, a corrective cycle has resulted in a recovery from recent lows. This is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. Resistance at the 20-day EMA has been breached. A continuation higher would expose the 50-day EMA at 0.8666. The medium-term trend outlook remains bearish and a break of 0.8518, the Jun 19 low, would confirm a resumption of the trend.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 144.40 1.382 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 3: 142.84 1.236 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 2: 142.51 61.8% of the Oct 16 2022 - Jan 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 142.36 High Jun 21
• PRICE: 14179 @ 05:58 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 140.03/139.29 20-day EMA / Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: 138.45 Low Jun 1
• SUP 3: 138.02 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 137.43 Low May 19

USDJPY is consolidating at its recent highs and the trend outlook remains bullish. Price has breached 141.65, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Jan 16 high. This reinforces bullish conditions and confirms a resumption of the uptrend, maintaining the bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 142.51 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Support to watch is at 140.03 the 20-day EMA. A break would signal a short-term top.

EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Extension

• RES 4: 157.53 1.764 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 156.79 1.618 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 156.23 2.00 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 1: 155.94 Intraday high
• PRICE: 155.75 @ 06:37 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 154.05 Low Jun 20
• SUP 2: 153.09 Low Jun 16
• SUP 3: 151.84 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 150.92 Low Jun 14

EURJPY traded higher yesterday to confirm a resumption of the current uptrend. The move strengthens bullish conditions and extends last week’s impulsive rally. Price has recently cleared key resistance at 151.61, the May 2 high and an important bull trigger. This confirmed a resumption of the longer-term uptrend and the focus on 156.23 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is seen at 151.84, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal a short-term top.

AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 0.7029 High Feb 14
• RES 3: 0.6993 76.4% retracement of the Feb - May downleg
• RES 2: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 1: 0.6857/6900 High Jun 20 / 16
• PRICE: 0.6768 @ 08:02 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 0.6735 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6701 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6679 50.0% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 16 rally
• SUP 4: 0.6642 Low Jun 7

A strong rally last Thursday in AUDUSD reinforced bullish conditions and confirmed an extension of the bull cycle from May 31. This week’s move lower appears to be a correction and attention is on support at 0.6735, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would expose the 50-day EMA, at 0.6701. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.6900, the Jun 16 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

USDCAD TECHS: Southbound

• RES 4: 1.3430 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.3384 High Jun 12
• RES 2: 1.3343 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3270 High Jun 20
• PRICE: 1.3157 @ 08:11 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 1.3139 Low Sep 14 2022
• SUP 2: 1.2992 50.0% retracement of the Jun - Oct 2022 bull rally
• SUP 3: 1.2954 Low Sep 13 2022
• SUP 4: 1.2895 Low Aug 25

USDCAD traded lower yesterday to confirm a resumption of the downtrend. This strengthens bearish conditions and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting current sentiment. Scope is seen for a move towards 1.2992, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, firm resistance is seen at 1.3343, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 136.50 High May 11
• RES 3: 135.85 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 134.77/95 / High Jun 12 / 6
• RES 1: 133.88 High Jun 20
• PRICE: 133.68 @ 04:58 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 132.54/18 Low Jun 20 / 16
• SUP 2: 132.12 Low May 26 and key support
• SUP 3: 131.89 1.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 131.21 1.236 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Bund futures are trading closer to their recent highs. For now, recent gains are considered corrective. Resistance at 134.77, the Jun 12 high, is intact. A break of this level is required to expose key short-term resistance at 135.85, the Jun 1 high. Support at 132.97, the Jun 8 low, was cleared last week and the break opens 132.12, the May 26 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would strengthen bearish conditions.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 117.700 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 117.200 High Jun 6
• RES 2: 116.990/117.010 High Jun 12 / 7
• RES 1: 116.080/342 High Jun 20 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 115.900 @ 05:05 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 115.380 Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: 115.198 1.236 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 115.986 1.382 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 114.815 1.50 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Bobl futures maintain a bearish tone and last week’s extension lower reinforces bearish conditions. Short-term gains are considered corrective. Price has recently breached 116.250, the Jun 8 low and cleared key support at 115.870, the May 26 low. The break of this latter level strengthens bearish conditions and opens 115.198, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance to watch is 116.990, the Jun 12 high. A break would ease bearish pressure.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Heads South

• RES 4: 105.550 High Jun 12 and key near-term resistance
• RES 3: 105.495 High Jun 13
• RES 2: 105.327 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 105.120/185 High Jun 19 / 15
• PRICE: 105.005 @ 05:16 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 104.900 Low Jun 20
• SUP 2: 104.883 1.236 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 104.740 1.50 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.695 Low Mar 10 (cont)

Schatz futures remain in a bearish mode. The recent break of 105.330, the May 26 low and bear trigger, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 104.883 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note that moving average studies are in a bear mode condition, highlighting a downtrend. Firm resistance is at 105.550, the Jun 12 high.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Bounce Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 97.64 High Jun 1 and the reversal trigger
• RES 3: 96.63/97.06 High Jun 9 / 6
• RES 2: 96.31 High Jun 12
• RES 1: 95.92 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 94.93 @ Close Jun 21
• SUP 1: 93.88 Low Jun 20
• SUP 2: 93.45 1.618 proj of the Feb 2 - 28 - Mar 20 price swing (cont)
• SUP 3: 93.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 92.66 Low Oct 14 2022 (cont)

A strong bounce in Gilt futures Tuesday has eased short-term bearish pressure. Gains - for now - would be considered corrective and the trend direction remains down. This week’s bearish start to the week confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. The contract has breached support at 94.21, the May 26 low and bear trigger. A continuation lower would open 93.45, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 95.92, the 20-day EMA.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 118.41 1.00 projection of May 26 - Jun 2 - Jun 8 price swing
• RES 3: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 2: 117.33 0.764 projection of May 26 - Jun 2 - Jun 8 price swing
• RES 1: 117.16 High Jun 16
• PRICE: 116.39 @ Close Jun 21
• SUP 1: 115.44/114.61 20-day EMA / Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: 113.83 Low Jun 8 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 112.48 Low May 29
• SUP 4: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support

BTP futures are consolidating. The contract traded to a fresh cycle high once again last Friday. Price has recently cleared resistance at 116.36, the Jun 2 high and a short-term bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and signals scope for a climb towards 117.33, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 113.83, the Jun 8 low. A break would be bearish. Pullbacks for now, appear to be a correction.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 4489.00 1.50 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 4474.40 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 4448.00 High Jan 2008 (cont)
• RES 1: 4392.00/4438.00 High Jun 20 / 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4324.00 @ 06:41 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 4303.00 Low Jun 7
• SUP 2: 4242.00 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4200.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4150.00 Low Mar 29

The Eurostoxx 50 futures uptrend remains intact, however, a bearish corrective cycle this week has resulted in a move lower and the contract is approaching support at 4301.00, the Jun 8 low. This is a key short-term support and a break would signal scope for a deeper retracement, exposing 4241.00, the May 31 low and a key support. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 4438.00, the Jun 16 high.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 4556.71 2.382 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 4532.08 2.236 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 4497.21 Bull channel top drawn from the Oct 2022 low (cont)
• RES 1: 4493.75 High Jun 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4402.25 @ 06:56 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 4381.75/4348.95 Low Jun 13 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4263.30 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4154.75 Low May 24
• SUP 4: 4098.25 Low May 4 and a key support

A bull theme in S&P E-minis remains intact and this week’s pullback appears to be a correction. This is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Initial key support lies at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 4348.95. A break of this average would strengthen a short-term bearish theme and signal scope for a deeper pullback. On the upside, the bull trigger is 4493.75, the Jun 16 high. A break would open 4500.21, the top of a bull channel.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q3) Recent Gains Still Appear To Be A Correction

• RES 4: $84.56 - High Apr 18
• RES 3: $82.47 - High Apr 25
• RES 2: $80.08 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $77.68/78.73 - High Jun 8 / 5 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: $76.75 @ 07:02 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: $74.51/71.50 - Low May 31
• SUP 2: $71.20 - Low Jun 20 / Low May 4
• SUP 3: $70.06 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 4: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)

Brent futures are holding on to their recent highs. However, despite the latest gains, a bear threat remains present and the contract continues to trade below $78.73, the Jun 5 high. Scope is seen for a move towards $71.20, the May 4 low, ahead of $70.06, the Mar 20 low. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode position and this highlights a downtrend. On the upside, clearance of $78.73 would alter the picture.

WTI TECHS: (Q3) Holding On To This Week’s Gains

• RES 4: $80.39 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $78.62 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $76.35 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $73.37/75.70 - High Jun 8 / High Jun 5 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $72.20 @ 07:13 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: $69.76/66.96 - Low Jun 20 / 12
• SUP 2: $64.41 - Low May 4 and key support
• SUP 3: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number

WTI futures continue to appreciate and the contract is trading at this week’s highs. Despite recent gains, the outlook remains bearish and the contract is trading below resistance at $75.70, the Jun 5 high. Support at $67.21, May 31 low, has recently been pierced, a clear break would open $64.41, the May 4 low. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position highlighting a downtrend. A break of $75.70 would signal a reversal.

GOLD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $2063.0 - High May 4
• RES 2: $2022.6 - High May 12
• RES 1: $1955.7/85.3 - 20-day EMA / High May 24 and key resistance
• PRICE: $1930.6 @ 07:18 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: $1919.3 - Low Jun 21
• SUP 2: $1903.5 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle
• SUP 3: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle

The bear cycle in Gold remains intact and the yellow metal is trading closer to recent lows. Trendline support was breached last week - the line is drawn from the Nov 3 2022 low and intersects at $1975.7. The break reinforces a bearish condition and marks a resumption of the downtrend. The focus is on $1903.5, 61.8% of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle. Initial firm resistance is $1985.3, the May 24 high and a reversal trigger.

SILVER TECHS: Clears Key Support

• RES 4: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.477/26.135 - High May 11 / 5 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $23.697/24.530 - 20-day EMA / High Jun 12
• PRICE: $22.545 @ 08:19 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: $22.284 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally
• SUP 2: $22.157 - Low Mar 21
• SUP 3: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally
• SUP 4: $20.591 - Low Mar 13

A sharp sell-off in Silver yesterday reinforces a bearish theme. The metal has cleared support at $22.682, the May 26 low and bear trigger, to confirm resumption of the downtrend. This paves the way for a move towards $22.284, a Fibonacci retracement point. A break of this level would further strengthen bearish conditions. Key resistance has been refined at $24.530, the Jun 12 high.