MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD Trend Signals Remain Bearish

Price Signal Summary – AUD Trend Signals Remain Bearish

• A bearish threat in S&P E-Minis remains present despite this week’s recovery and short-term gains are considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bear mode condition and recent fresh cycle lows point to a continuation of the trend. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are consolidating. The trend direction though, remains down. The breach last week of key support at 3456.00, May 10 low, reinforces bearish conditions and signals potential for weakness towards 3300.00 next.
• USDJPY remains in an uptrend. The pair broke to new cycle highs this week, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. The move higher also maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and has opened 136.88 next, the Oct 30 1998 high. AUDUSD is still trading above 0.6851, the Jun 14 low. This support remains exposed and trend signals are bearish. A stronger resumption of weakness would signal scope for a test of key support and the bear trigger at 0.6829, the May 12 low. The USDCAD outlook is bullish and price continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The pair cleared 1.3000 on Jun 17 and the rally also resulted in a print above key resistance at 1.3077, the May 16 high and a bull trigger.
• Gold remains vulnerable near-term and support appears exposed. Price has recently failed to remain above the 50-day EMA and this highlights a bearish threat that also signals the potential end of the recent correction between May 16 - Jun 13. WTI futures are trading closer to this week’s lows. The contract has cleared support at the 50-day EMA and this strengthens the current bearish theme, signalling scope for a continuation lower.
• Bund futures traded higher Thursday and in the process cleared initial resistance at 145.72. The contract also breached resistance at 147.34, the 20-day EMA. The break of this average strengthens short-term bullish conditions. Gilt futures rallied sharply higher Thursday. The recovery resulted in a breach of resistance at 113.25, the Jun 15 high and price has also traded through the 20-day EMA.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Channel Top Is Key Resistance

• RES 4: 1.0852 High Apr 22
• RES 3: 1.0787 High May 30 and a reversal trigger
• RES 2: 1.0645/0774 Bear channel top from Feb 10 high / High Jun 9
• RES 1: 1.0606 High Jun 22
• PRICE: 1.0540 @ 06:11 BST Jun 24
• SUP 1: 1.0445/0359 Low Jun 17 and 15
• SUP 2: 1.0350 Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0341 Low Jan 3 2017 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0233 1.382 proj of Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 31 Price swing

EURUSD is unchanged and is trading closer to its recent highs. Trend signals are unchanged too and continue to highlight a downtrend with short-term gains considered corrective. The recent reversal lower from the top of a bear channel, drawn from the Feb 10 high, also highlights a bearish theme. The channel top intersects at 1.0645 and is a key short-term resistance. A resumption of weakness would open 1.0350, May 13 low and the bear trigger.

GBPUSD TECHS: Consolidating

• RES 4: 1.2667 High May 27 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 1.2527 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.2518 High Jun 10
• RES 1: 1.2406 High Jun 16
• PRICE: 1.2276 @ 06:18 BST Jun 24
• SUP 1: 1.2161/2042 Low Jun 22 and 16
• SUP 2: 1.1934 Low Jun 14 and High Mar 20 2020
• SUP 3: 1.1795 0.764 proj of the Mar 23 - May 13 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1777 Low Mar 26 2020

GBPUSD is consolidating in a tight range and remains above 1.1934, the Jun 14 low and bear trigger. The recent move higher is likely a correction. The primary trend direction is down and a move lower would refocus attention on 1.1934. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.1795, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2406, Jun 16 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 0.8852 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Mar ‘22 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8762 1.00 proj of the Apr 14 - May 12 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: 0.8721 High May 26 2021 and Jun 15 / bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8641 High Jun 23
• PRICE: 0.8585 @ 06:36 BST Jun 24
• SUP 1: 0.8559 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8507 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8433 Low May 23
• SUP 4: 0.8393 Low May 17 and a key support

EURGBP Short-term pullbacks are still considered corrective and the trend outlook is bullish. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode and this clearly highlights a positive trend condition. The recent breach of resistance at 0.8619, May 12 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and the focus is on a retest of 0.8721, Jun 15 high and the bull trigger. A break would resume the trend. Firm support is seen at 0.8507, the 50-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 139.07 Bull channel top drawn from the Mar 4 low
• RES 3: 138.56 1.618 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 137.30 1.50 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 136.71/88 High Jun 22 / High Oct 30 1998
• PRICE: 134.73 @ 06:43 BST Jun 24
• SUP 1: 134.27 Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: 133.22/131.50 20-day EMA / Low Jun 16 and key support
• SUP 3: 130.69 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 4 low
• SUP 4: 130.00 Round number support

USDJPY remains in an uptrend. The pair broke to new cycle highs this week, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. The move higher also maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and has opened 136.88 next, the Oct 30 1998 high. Price is also trading inside a bull channel - drawn from the Mar 4 low. The top at 139.49 is a near-term objective too. Key short-term support has been defined at 131.50.

EURJPY TECHS: Evening Star Candle Reversal?

• RES 4: 146.74 High Dec 30, 2014
• RES 3: 145.00/58 Round number resistance / High Dec 31 2014
• RES 2: 144.58 0.764 proj of Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 5 swing
• RES 1: 144.25 High Jun 8 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 141.90 @ 06:58 BST Jun 24
• SUP 1: 140.75 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 139.45 Low Jun 17
• SUP 3: 138.44/37.85 50-day EMA and key support / Low Jun 16
• SUP 4: 136.25 Low May 30

EURJPY maintains a bullish outlook, however, price action over the past 3-sessions is a concern for bulls. A 3-day candle pattern - evening star reversal - was confirmed at yesterday’s close. This is a strong reversal and warns of a deeper pullback near-term. The next support to watch is 140.75, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance at 144.25 remains intact, a break to confirm a resumption of the uptrend and remove any developing bearish threats.

AUDUSD TECHS: Key Support Still Exposed

• RES 4: 0.7283 High Jun 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.7202 High Jun 9
• RES 2: 0.7103 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.7069 High Jun 16
• PRICE: 0.6909 @ 07:04 BST Jun 24
• SUP 1: 0.6869/51 Low Jun 23/14
• SUP 2: 0.6829 Low May 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6805 Low Jun 22 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing

AUDUSD is still trading above 0.6851, the Jun 14 low. This support remains exposed and trend signals are bearish. A stronger resumption of weakness would signal scope for a test of key support and the bear trigger at 0.6829, the May 12 low. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 0.6805, the Jun 22 2020 low. On the upside, 0.7069, Jun 16 high marks a key short-term resistance.

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.3338 38.2% of the 2020 - 2021 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.3192 1.00 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 8 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3113 High Nov 23 2020
• RES 1: 1.3079 High May 17 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2980 @ 07:26 BST Jun 24
• SUP 1: 1.2906 Low Jun 21
• SUP 2: 1.2861/53 Low Jun 16 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2791 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.2681 Low Jun 10

The USDCAD outlook is bullish and price continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The pair cleared 1.3000 on Jun 17 and the rally also resulted in a print above key resistance at 1.3077, the May 16 high and a bull trigger. A clear breach of 1.3077 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and signal scope for strength towards 1.3113, the Nov 23 2020 high. Initial firm support is at 1.2853, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Corrective Bounce Extends

• RES 4: 151.37 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 150.06 61.8% retracement of the May 12 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 2: 148.51 High Jun 10
• RES 1: 148.45 High Jun 23
• PRICE: 147.56 @ 05:07 BST Jun 24
• SUP 1: 144.81 Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: 142.56/140.67 Low Jun 17 / Low Jun 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 140.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 138.68 Low Jan 2 2014 (cont)

Bund futures traded higher Thursday and in the process cleared initial resistance at 145.72. The contract also breached resistance at 147.34, the 20-day EMA. The break of this average strengthens short-term bullish conditions and signals scope for a stronger corrective recovery. The focus is on 148.51, the Jun 10 high. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is 142.56, Jun 17 low. Note that short-term gains are still considered corrective.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Clears The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 125.112 76.4% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 16 sell-off
• RES 3: 124.490 High Jun 3
• RES 2: 124.124 61.8% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 16 sell-off
• RES 1: 123.730 High Jun 23
• PRICE: 123.220 @ 05:16 BST Jun 24
• SUP 1: 121.820 Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: 120.760/119.940 Low Jun 17 / Low Jun 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 119.590 4.00 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 119.050 Low Jul 29 2011 (cont)

Bobl futures rallied Thursday confirming an extension of the current bullish corrective cycle. The move higher has resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA and this has strengthened short-term bullish conditions. The focus is on a climb towards 124.124, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that short-term gains are still considered corrective. A reversal lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 119.940, the Jun 16 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 109.334 61.8% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 16 sell-off
• RES 3: 109.180 High Jun 3 and 9
• RES 2: 109.031 61.8% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 16 sell-off
• RES 1: 108.925 High Jun 24
• PRICE: 108.755 @ 05:19 BST Jun 24
• SUP 1: 108.290 Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: 108.025/107.705 Low Jun 21 / Low Jun 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 107.662 3.50 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 107.589 3.618 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing

Schatz futures rallied Thursday and cleared the 20-day EMA at 108.644. The break of this hurdle has strengthened short-term bullish conditions and suggests scope for an extension of the current corrective cycle. Scope is seen for a climb towards 109.031, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, the initial support to watch is at 108.025, Jun 21 low. A break would signal a bearish reversal and expose the bear trigger at 107.705, Jun 16 low.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Corrective Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 116.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 115.55 High Jun 6
• RES 2: 115.02 High Jun 8
• RES 1: 114.28 High Jun 10
• PRICE: 114.14 @ Close Jun 23
• SUP 1: 111.93 Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: 110.57 Low Jun 21
• SUP 3: 109.89/60 Low Jun 16 / 4.50 proj of May 19 - 24 - 26 swing
• SUP 4: 109.33 Low Jul 8 2014 (cont)

Gilt futures rallied sharply higher Thursday. The recovery resulted in a breach of resistance at 113.25, the Jun 15 high and price has also traded through the 20-day EMA. This signals scope for an extension higher and has opened; 114.28, the Jun 10 high, and 155.55, the Jun 6 high. Gains are still considered corrective and the primary trend direction is down. A return lower would refocus attention on 109.89, the Jun 16 low and bear trigger.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Extends Gains

• RES 4: 125.11 High Jun 1
• RES 3: 124.48 76.4% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 14 downleg
• RES 2: 123.88 Low May 9 and a recent breakout level
• RES 1: 122.70/123.15 High Jun 23 and Jun 9
• PRICE: 122.40 @ Close Jun 23
• SUP 1: 118.60 Low Jun 22
• SUP 2: 115.72/113.78 Low Jun 16 / Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 113.22 3.764 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 112.31 4.00 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing

BTP futures traded higher Thursday and cleared initial resistance at 120.96, the 20-day EMA. The breach of this average suggests potential for a stronger short-term correction and attention shifts to 123.88, the May 9 low plus a recent breakout level. Initial support to watch is at 118.60, the Jun 22 low. A break of this support would signal a short-term bear reversal and the end of the current correction.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: 3774.00 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 3689.00 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 3642.29 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 3567.00 High Jun 16
• PRICE: 3462.00 @ 05:46 BST Jun 24
• SUP 1: 3384.00 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3300.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 3241.70 1.382 proj of the Mar 29 - May 10 - Jun 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 3189.10 1.50 proj of the Mar 29 - May 10 - Jun 6 price swing

EUROSTOXX 50 futures are consolidating. The trend direction though, remains down. The breach last week of key support at 3456.00, May 10 low, reinforces bearish conditions and signals potential for weakness towards 3300.00 next. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode condition, highlighting current trend conditions. Initial firm resistance is seen at 3642.29, the 50-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 4396.75 High Apr 22
• RES 3: 4308.50 High Apr 28
• RES 2: 4047.65/4204.75 50-day EMA / High May 31
• RES 1: 3843.00/3893.38 High Jun 15 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 3828.75 @ 06:58 BST June 24
• SUP 1: 3639.00 Low Jun 17 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3578.27 0.618 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 3500.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3384.75 0.764 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing

A bearish threat in S&P E-Minis remains present despite this week’s recovery and short-term gains are considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bear mode condition and recent fresh cycle lows point to a continuation of the trend. The focus is on 3600.00 next, and below. Initial resistance is at 3843.00, the Jun 15 high. The next firm resistance is seen at 3893.38, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q2) Bearish Focus

• RES 4: $125.04 - 1.618 proj of the May 11 - 17 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: $125.19 - High Jun 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $121.25 - High Jun 17
• RES 1: $116.25 - High Jun 21
• PRICE: $110.44 @ 07:02 BST Jun 24
• SUP 1: $107.03 - Low May 22
• SUP 2: $103.84 - Low May 19 and a key support
• SUP 3: $100.14 - Low May 11
• SUP 4: $98.32 - Low Apr 25

Brent futures traded lower Wednesday and in the process, cleared support at the 50-day EMA. The break lower strengthens the current bearish threat and signals potential for an extension down with the focus on $103.84 next, the May 19 low and a key support. Initial support to watch is Wednesday’s low of $107.03, the intraday bear trigger. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at $116.25, the Jun 21 high.

WTI TECHS: (Q2) Bearish Threat Still Present

• RES 4: $122.68- 1.50 proj of the May 11 - 17 -19 price swing
• RES 3: $120.88 - High Jun 14 and key resistance
• RES 2: $116.58 - High Jun 17
• RES 1: $111.21 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $104.74 @ 07:06 BST Jun 24
• SUP 1: $101.53/100.66 - Low Jun 22 / Low May 19
• SUP 2: $99.36 - Low May 12
• SUP 3: $95.47 - Low May 11
• SUP 4: $93.45 - Low Apr 25

WTI futures are trading closer to this week’s lows. The contract has cleared support at the 50-day EMA and this strengthens the current bearish theme, signalling scope for a continuation lower. The break has opened $100.66, the May 19 low. A breach of this level would pave the way for a move towards $95.47, the May 11 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at $116.58, the Jun 17 high. A break would ease the bearish threat.

GOLD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $1909.8 - High May 5
• RES 3: $1878.4 - High Jun 13
• RES 2: $1876.6 - Trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high
• RES 1: $1859.9 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1824.0 @ 07:20 BST Jun 24
• SUP 1: $1805.2 - Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: $1787.0 - Low May 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1780.4 - Low Jan 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: $1753.7 - Low Dec 15 2021

Gold remains vulnerable near-term and support appears exposed. Price has recently failed to remain above the 50-day EMA and this highlights a bearish threat that also signals the potential end of the recent correction between May 16 - Jun 13. An extension lower would open the key support and bear trigger at $1787.0, May 16 low. A break would resume the downtrend. Key trendline resistance is at $1876.6.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: $24.666 - High Apr 22
• RES 3: $23.974 - Low Mar 29
• RES 2: $23.278 - High May 5
• RES 1: $22.317/517 - 50-day EMA / High Jun 6
• PRICE: $20.889 @ 07:57 BST Jun 24
• SUP 1: $20.797/20.464 - Intraday low / Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $20.282 - 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $20.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $19.581 - 2.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

Silver is trading lower. The metal remains below its recent highs and the short-term outlook is bearish. Price recently tested levels above resistance at $22.446, May 27 high. A clear break of this level is still required to suggest scope for an extension higher and would also highlight a breach of the 50-day EMA, at $22.317. For bears, a continuation lower would signal potential for a move towards key support at $20.464, May 13 low.