MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD Uptrend Intact Despite Monday Weakness

Price Signal Summary – AUD Uptrend Intact Despite Monday Weakness

• S&P E-Minis traded higher once again Monday and the contract maintains a bullish tone. The climb extends the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Recent gains in EUROSTOXX 50 have confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. The move higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and attention is on resistance at 3840.00, the Jun 6 high.
• EURUSD started the week on a bearish note and has extended the move lower from last week’s 1.0368 high (Aug 10). The move down appears to be a short-term reversal and means that the pair has failed to clear channel resistance. EURGBP traded lower Monday and has remained below Friday’s high. The broader outlook is bearish and the recent move higher is likely a correction. Price action since mid-June has established a sequence of lower lows and lower highs. AUDUSD traded lower Monday but despite the pullback, remains closer to its recent highs. The recent breach of 0.7047, Aug 1 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Jul 14 and signals scope for a continuation higher.
• Gold maintains a bullish tone despite Monday’s retracement. Recent gains have resulted in a print above trendline resistance at $1784.7. The trendline is drawn from the Mar 8 high and the break represents an important technical breach. WTI futures traded lower Monday and this resulted in a brief print below support at $87.01, the Aug 5 low. The move lower reinforces bearish conditions and a clear break of $87.01 would confirm a resumption of the trend.
• Bund futures started the week on a firmer note. The recent retracement is still considered corrective and the short-term trend direction is up. Moving average studies are in a bull mode condition. Last week’s extension lower in Gilt futures resulted in a break of trendline support drawn from the Jun 16 low. The pullback this month is still considered corrective and the trend outlook remains bullish.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Reversal Off Channel Resistance

• RES 4: 1.0488 High Jun 30
• RES 3: 1.0449 High Jul 5
• RES 2: 1.0317/68 Channel top from Feb 10 high / High Aug 10
• RES 1: 1.0268 High Aug 15
• PRICE: 1.0157 @ 06:04 BST Aug 16
• SUP 1: 1.0123 Low Aug 3
• SUP 2: 1.0097 Low Jul 27 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 1.0007/0.9952 Low Jul 15 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.9944 1.618 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing

EURUSD started the week on a bearish note and has extended the move lower from last week’s 1.0368 high (Aug 10). The move down appears to be a short-term reversal and means that the pair has failed to clear channel resistance. The bear channel is drawn from the Feb 10 high and intersects at 1.0317. Attention is on support at 1.0123, Aug 3 low. A break would strengthen the bearish theme. Key resistance is at 1.0368.

GBPUSD TECHS: Approaching First Support

• RES 4: 1.2518 High Jun 6
• RES 3: 1.2406 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2332 High Jun 27
• RES 1: 1.2293 High Aug 01
• PRICE: 1.2046 @ 06:19 BST Aug 16
• SUP 1: 1.2004 Low Aug 5
• SUP 2: 1.1961 Low Jul 25
• SUP 3: 1.1890/1760 Low Jul 21 / Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.1673 1.00 proj of the May 27 - Jun 14 - 16 price swing

GBPUSD traded lower again Monday. Recent price action highlights two important short-term directional triggers; resistance at 1.2293, the Aug 1 high and support at 1.2004, the Aug 5 low. The outlook is bullish but a break of 1.2293 is required to signal a resumption of the bull cycle and open 1.2406, the Jun 16 high. For bears, clearance of support at 1.2004 would instead expose 1.1890, the Jul 21 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 0.8627 High Jul 4
• RES 3: 0.8585 High Jul 21 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8525 High Jul 25
• RES 1: 0.8493 High Aug 12
• PRICE: 0.8433 @ 06:27 BST Aug 16
• SUP 1: 0.8410/8340 Low Aug 8 / 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8313 Low Apr 22
• SUP 3: 0.8257 2.0% 10-dma envelope and low Apr 14
• SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 and a key support

EURGBP traded lower Monday and has remained below Friday’s high. The broader outlook is bearish and the recent move higher is likely a correction. Price action since mid-June has established a sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear mode set-up too, reinforcing a bearish theme A resumption of weakness would open 0.8313, Apr 22 low. Friday’s high of 0.8493 is the first resistance.

USDJPY TECHS: Bear Trigger Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 137.27 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Aug 2 downleg
• RES 3: 136.58 High Jul 28
• RES 2: 135.96 61.8% retracement of the Jul 14 - Aug 2 downleg
• RES 1: 133.99/35.58 50-day EMA / High Aug 8
• PRICE: 133.32 @ 06:34 BST Aug 16
• SUP 1: 131.74 Low Aug 11
• SUP 2: 130.41/130.00 Low Aug 2 / Round number support
• SUP 3: 129.51 Low Jun 2
• SUP 4: 128.64 Low Jun 1

USDJPY is unchanged. Firm short-term resistance has been defined at 135.58, the Aug 8 high. The Aug 10 sell-off highlights a reversal of the recent correction between Aug 2 - 8. A bearish theme remains in place following the Jul 28 bull channel breakout. The channel is drawn from the Mar 4 low and the break confirmed a bear cycle. Attention is on 130.41, the Aug 2 low and the bear trigger.

EURJPY TECHS: Bearish Price Action

• RES 4: 140.07/24 High Jul 25 / Trendline drawn from the Jun 28 high
• RES 3: 139.41 High Jul 28
• RES 2: 138.22/ 50-day EMA / High Aug 10
• RES 1: 137.50 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 135.55 @ 06:44 BST Aug 16
• SUP 1: 134.84 Low Aug 3
• SUP 2: 133.40 Low Aug 2 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 132.66 Low May 12 and a key support
• SUP 4: 131.99 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - Jun 28 bull leg

EURJPY started the week on a bearish note, extending the pullback from last Wednesday’s high of 138.40. The cross also remains below the 50-day EMA. The recovery from 133.40, Aug 2 low, is considered corrective. Moving average studies still highlight a downtrend and the 50-day EMA, at 138.22, marks a firm resistance. Attention on the 133.40 bear trigger. Clearance of resistance at the 50-day EMA would alter the picture.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Conditions Intact Despite Pullback

• RES 4: 0.7283 High Jun 3 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.7246 High Jun 7
• RES 2: 0.7173 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 1: 0.7141 76.4% retracement of the Jun 3 - Jul 14 downleg
• PRICE: 0.7037 @ 06:52 BST Aug 16
• SUP 1: 0.6984/6870 20-day EMA / Low Aug 5 and a key support
• SUP 2: 0.6786 Low Jul 18
• SUP 3: 0.6682 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing

AUDUSD traded lower Monday but despite the pullback, remains closer to its recent highs. The recent breach of 0.7047, Aug 1 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Jul 14 and signals scope for a continuation higher. The break has also established a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart and has opened 0.7141, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support to watch is at 0.6870, Aug 5 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Rally

• RES 4: 1.3224 High Jul 14 and key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3135 High Jul 15
• RES 2: 1.2991/3038 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band / High Jul 18
• RES 1: 1.2985 High Aug 5
• PRICE: 1.2925 @ 08:08 BST Aug 16
• SUP 1: 1.2862/2748 50-day EMA / 200-dma
• SUP 2: 1.2728 Low Aug 11
• SUP 3: 1.2685 76.4% retracement of the Jun 8 - Jul 14 upleg
• SUP 4: 1.2592 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD has reversed course and yesterday’s rally highlights a possible reversal of the recent bearish cycle. A continuation higher would expose resistance at 1.2985, the Aug 5 high and the next key short-term resistance. Clearance of this level would strengthen bullish conditions. On the downside, a key support has been defined at 1.2728, the Aug 11 low where a break would reinstate a bearish threat and also highlight a breach of the 200-dma.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 160.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 159.79 High Apr 4 (cont)
• RES 2: 158.33/159.70 High Aug 3 / 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 157.74 High Aug 10
• PRICE: 156.63 @ 05:06 BST Aug 16
• SUP 1: 154.75 Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: 153.77 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 149.69 Low Jul 21 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 148.24 Low Jul 1

Bund futures started the week on a firmer note. The recent retracement is still considered corrective and the short-term trend direction is up. Moving average studies are in a bull mode condition and the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows is intact. A resumption of gains would open 159.79, Apr 4 high (cont). Key trend support has been defined at 149.69, Jul 21 low. A break is required to signal a potential top. Initial support is 154.75.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Remains Above First Support

• RES 4: 129.950 2.00 projection of the Jun 16 -24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 129.001 1.764 projection of the Jun 16 -24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 128.060/128.760 High Aug 3 / 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 127.580 High Aug 10
• PRICE: 127.170 @ 05:09 BST Aug 16
• SUP 1: 126.450 Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: 126.073 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 125.150 Low Jul 22
• SUP 4: 124.030 Low Jul 21 and a reversal trigger

Bobl futures found support Monday.The short-term trend is up and the move lower since Aug 2 is still considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull mode and the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows remains intact. A resumption of gains would open 129.001 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is 124.030, the Jul 21 low. Initial firm support is 126.450, the Jul 28 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Short-Term Trend Remains Up

• RES 4: 110.855 High Apr 4 (cont)
• RES 3: 110.500 High May 26 (cont)
• RES 2: 110.412 1.50 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 110.100/380 High Aug 3 / Aug 2 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 109.865 @ 05:17 BST Aug 16
• SUP 1: 109.670 Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: 109.634 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 109.350 Low Jul 22
• SUP 4: 108.950 Low Jul 21 and a key support

Schatz futures remain below the early August highs. The retracement lower this month is likely a correction and short-term trend conditions still appear bullish. A fresh high on Aug 2, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 110.412 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is unchanged at 108.950, Jul 21 low. Initial firm support is at 109.670, the Jul 28 low.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 121.07 High May 12 (cont)
• RES 3: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 118.88/119.84 High Aug 4 / 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 118.10 High Aug 10
• PRICE: 116.96 @ Close Aug 15
• SUP 1: 115.71 Low Aug 12
• SUP 2: 114.86 50.0% retracement of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 upleg
• SUP 3: 114.08 Low Jul 8 and a key support
• SUP 4: 113.69 61.8% retracement of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 upleg

Last week’s extension lower in Gilt futures resulted in a break of trendline support drawn from the Jun 16 low. The pullback this month is still considered corrective and the trend outlook remains bullish. An extension lower however would expose 114.86 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at 118.10, the Aug 10 high. A break would be a bullish development.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Still In A Range

• RES 4: 131.61 High Apr 29 (cont)
• RES 3: 131.24 High May 12 (cont)
• RES 2: 130.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 129.36 High Aug 11
• PRICE: 128.51 @ Close Aug 15
• SUP 1: 126.83/125.45 Low Aug 3 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 122.81 Low Jul 28
• SUP 3: 119.57 Low Jul 21 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 118.60 Low Jun 22

BTP futures remain inside the current range - a bull flag formation. The trend direction is up. The break on Jul 29 of key resistance at 126.41, Jul 1 high, established a broader bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows - the definition of an uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up too. Attention is on the 130.00 handle next. Initial firm support lies at 125.57, the 50-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 3902.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 3855.00 High Apr 21
• RES 2: 3840.00 High Jun 6 and key resistance
• RES 1: 3806.00 High Jun 8
• PRICE: 3799.00 @ 05:32 BST Aug 16
• SUP 1: 3691.00 Low Aug 10
• SUP 2: 3631.40/3553.00 50-day EMA / Low Jul 26
• SUP 3: 3467.00 Low Jul 18 / 19
• SUP 4: 3343.00 Low Jul 5 and the bear trigger

Recent gains in EUROSTOXX 50 have confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. The move higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and attention is on resistance at 3840.00, the Jun 6 high. A break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions. On the downside, key support is seen at the 50-day EMA which intersects at 3631.40. A break would signal a possible reversal.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Bullish Extension

• RES 4: 4419.15 2.236 proj of the Jun 17 - 28 - Jul 14 price swing
• RES 3: 4400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4345.75 2.00 proj of the Jun 17 - 28 - Jul 14 price swing
• RES 1: 4306.50 High May 4
• PRICE: 4294.00 @ 06:51 BST Aug 16
• SUP 1: 4111.80 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4044.28/3913.25 50-day EMA / Low Jul 26 and a key support
• SUP 3: 3820.25 Low Jul 18
• SUP 4: 3723.75 Low Jul 14

S&P E-Minis traded higher once again Monday and the contract maintains a bullish tone. The climb extends the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average conditions are in a bull mode set-up too. The focus is on 4306.50 next, the May 4 high and potentially 4400.00 further out. On the downside, initial firm support is at 4111.80, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA intersects at 4044.28 - a key support.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V2) Key Support Appears Exposed

• RES 4: $112.92 - High Jun 29
• RES 3: $110.72 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $106.50 - High Jul 29 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $100.38/101.57 - High Aug 12 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $94.07 @ 07:10 BST Aug 16
• SUP 1: $92.78 - Low Aug 5 /15
• SUP 2: $91.22 - Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $90.00 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $88.31 - Low Mar 9 and a key support

Brent futures started the week on a softer note and traded lower Monday. The move lower has defined a key S/T resistance at $100.38, Aug 12 high ahead of the 50-day EMA which intersects at $101.31. A clear break of support at $92.78, the Aug 5 / 15 low, would expose support at $91.22, the Jul 14 low. A breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. Clearance of $100.38/101.31 is required to highlight a possible reversal.

WTI TECHS: (U2) Pierces The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: $111.14 - High Jun 29
• RES 3: $108.28 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $101.88 - High Jul 29 and key resistance
• RES 1: $95.05/97.41 - High Aug 10 / 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: $88.74 @ 07:00 BST Aug 16
• SUP 1: $86.82 - Low Aug 15
• SUP 2: $85.37 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: $83.51 - 1.50 projection of the Jun 8 - 22 - 29 price swing
• SUP 4: $81.34 - 1.618 projection of the Jun 8 - 22 - 29 price swing

WTI futures traded lower Monday and this resulted in a brief print below support at $87.01, the Aug 5 low. The move lower reinforces bearish conditions and a clear break of $87.01 would confirm a resumption of the trend. This would open $85.37, the Mar 15 low and also expose the $85.00 handle. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at $95.05, the Aug 10 high.

GOLD TECHS: Remains Above Support

• RES 4: $1875 7 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar 8 - Jul 21 bear leg
• RES 3: $1857.6 - High Jun 16
• RES 2: $1829.8 - 38.2% retracement of the Mar 8 - Jul 21 bear leg
• RES 1: $1807.9 - High Aug 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1780.3 @ 07:25 BST Aug 16
• SUP 1: $1772.0/54.4 - 20-day EMA / Low Aug 3 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: $1711.7/1681.0 - Low Jul 27
• SUP 3: $1681.0 - Low Jul 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 2021

Gold maintains a bullish tone despite Monday’s retracement. Recent gains have resulted in a print above trendline resistance at $1784.7. The trendline is drawn from the Mar 8 high and the break represents an important technical breach plus highlights a potential stronger reversal of the 5-month downtrend. A stronger reversal lower though would threaten the bullish theme. Watch support at $1754.4 Aug 3 low. The bull trigger is $1807.9, Aug 10 high.

SILVER TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 3: $21.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 1: $20.876 - High Aug 15
• PRICE: $20.131 @ 08:13 BST Aug 16
• SUP 1: $19.551/062 - Low Aug 5 / Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: $18.146/18.000 - Low Jul 14 / Round number support
• SUP 3: $17.312 - 3.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 4: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020

Silver remains bullish for now, despite yesterday’s move lower. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of resistance at $20.508, the Aug 2 high. This confirmed a resumption of the bull leg that started Jul 14 and the metal has established a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. The focus is on $21.540, Jun 27 high. Initial key support has been defined at $19.551, the Aug 5 low. A break would threaten the bull cycle.