MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD/USD Maintains Softer Tone

Price Signal Summary – AUD/USD Maintains Softer Tone

• The S&P E-minis trend needle continues to point north. The contract traded higher last week and breached key short-term resistance and the bull trigger at 4206.25, the May 1 high. Clearance of this level confirms an extension of the bull trend from Mar 13. Eurostoxx 50 futures outlook remains bullish and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Price has recently cleared resistance at 4363.00, the Apr 21 high and a bull trigger. The break confirms a resumption of the bull cycle from Mar 20 and a continuation of the medium-term uptrend.
• EURUSD is unchanged and trend conditions remain bearish following the recent extension of the bear leg that started Apr 26. The 50-day EMA, at 1.0879, has recently been breached. EURGBP is unchanged and remains in consolidation mode just above its recent lows. The trend condition is bearish and the latest pause appears to be a bear flag. The recent breach of 0.8719, Mar 15 low, confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle and this has opened 0.8649. AUDUSD continues to trade closer to its recent lows and maintains a softer tone following the recent pullback from 0.6818, May 10 high. This has exposed key support at 0.6565, the Mar 10 low.
• Gold remains in a bearish cycle and is trading closer to its recent lows. The yellow metal last week cleared support at $1976.1, the 50-day EMA and $1969.3, the Apr 19 low. The clear break of this support zone highlights a stronger bearish threat. A short-term bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and initial resistance at $73.81, the May 10 high, is intact. A resumption of weakness and a break of $69.39, the May 15 low, would strengthen near-term bearish conditions.
• Bund futures remain in bearish mode following last week’s move lower. Support at 134.99, the May 10 low, was breached and this strengthened the bearish theme, paving the way for a continuation near-term. The focus is on key support at 133.10, the Apr 19 low. Gilt futures remain in a bear mode position and last week’s break lower marked an acceleration of the downtrend. The contract has cleared support at 99.73, the Apr 19 low, and 99.20, the Feb 28 low and a key support level.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 1.1127 1.00 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1054/95 High May 8 / High Apr 26 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.1007 High May 10
• RES 1: 1.0879/0899 50- and 20-day EMA values
• PRICE: 1.0810 @ 05:38 BST May 23
• SUP 1: 1.0760 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 1.0737 61.8% retracement of the Mar 15 - Apr 26 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.0713 Low Mar 24
• SUP 4: 1.0653 76.4% retracement of the Mar 15 - Apr 26 bull run

EURUSD is unchanged and trend conditions remain bearish following the recent extension of the bear leg that started Apr 26. The 50-day EMA, at 1.0879, has recently been breached. This has strengthened bearish conditions and signals scope for a continuation lower towards 1.0737 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would open 1.0713, the Mar 24 low. A firm resistance is seen at 1.0899, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Maintains A Softer Tone

• RES 4: 1.2767 61.8% of the Jun 1 ‘21 - Sep 26 ‘22 downtrend
• RES 3: 1.2680 High May 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.2547/2641 High May 16 / 11
• RES 1: 1.2487 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2434 @ 05:49 BST May 23
• SUP 1: 1.2392 Low May 18 / 19
• SUP 2: 1.2353/45 Low Apr 17 / 10 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.2275 Low Apr 3
• SUP 4: 1.2242 50.0% retracement of the Mar 8 - May 10 bull run

GBPUSD is consolidating but maintains a softer tone following last week’s extension lower. The 50-day EMA which intersects at 1.2410, has been pierced. This average represents a key support and a clear break of it would strengthen a bearish threat and expose 1.2345, the Apr 10 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2547, the May 16 high where a break is required to signal a possible reversal.

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Flag

• RES 4: 0.8875 High Apr 25 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 0.8835 High May 3
• RES 2: 0.8767 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8729 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8693 @ 06:00 BST May 23
• SUP 1: 0.8661 Low May 11
• SUP 2: 0.8649 76.4% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 0.8593 Low Dec 15 2022
• SUP 4: 0.8562 Low Dec 13 2022

EURGBP is unchanged and remains in consolidation mode just above its recent lows. The trend condition is bearish and the latest pause appears to be a bear flag. The recent breach of 0.8719, Mar 15 low, confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle and this has opened 0.8649, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is at 0.8729 the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA intersects at 0.8767 where a clear break is required to signal a reversal.

USDJPY TECHS: Fresh Trend High

• RES 4: 140.57 Bull channel top drawn from the Jan 16 low
• RES 3: 139.59 50.0% retracement of the Oct - Jan bear cycle
• RES 2: 139.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 138.87 High May 18
• PRICE: 138.48 @ 06:12 BST May 23
• SUP 1: 137.29 Low May 18
• SUP 2: 136.05/134.85 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 133.50 Low May 4
• SUP 4: 133.02 Low Apr 26 and a key near-term support

USDJPY bullish conditions remain intact - a fresh trend high today reinforces current conditions. A key resistance zone between 137.77-91, the May 2 and Mar 8 high respectively, has recently been cleared, confirming a resumption of the uptrend that started on Jan 16. This opens 139.00 and 139.59, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support is seen at 136.28, the 20-day EMA. Key support is far off at 133.50, the May 4 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 152.00 1.382 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 3: 151.61 High May 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 150.32 76.4% retracement of the May 2 - 11 bear leg
• RES 1: 150.06 Intraday high
• PRICE: 149.67 @ 06:42 BST May 23
• SUP 1: 148.26 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 146.69/13 50-day EMA / Low May 11
• SUP 3: 145.67 High Mar 31
• SUP 4: 145.22 2.0% 10-dma envelope

EURJPY maintains a short-term bullish tone. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards 150.32 next, a Fibonacci retracement, ahead of 151.61, the May 2 high and a bull trigger. The 50-day EMA, which intersects at 146.69 today, remains intact and marks a key support. A clear break of this average is required to signal a resumption of bearish activity. Initial support lies at 148.26, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Eyeing Key Support

• RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 3: 0.6861 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 1: 0.6701/6818 50-day EMA / High May 10
• PRICE: 0.6655 @ 07:21 BST May 23
• SUP 1: 0.6605 Low May 18
• SUP 2: 0.6565 Low May 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6547 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.6403 76.4% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle

AUDUSD continues to trade closer to its recent lows and maintains a softer tone following the recent pullback from 0.6818, May 10 high. This has exposed key support at 0.6565, the Mar 10 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started Feb 2 and highlight a range breakout. On the upside, a breach of 0.6818 is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

USDCAD TECHS: Looking for Gains

• RES 4: 1.3695 High Mar 28
• RES 3: 1.3668 High Apr 28 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3640 High May 3
• RES 1: 1.3568 High May 15
• PRICE: 1.3498 @ 07:59 BST May 23
• SUP 1: 1.3404 Low May 16
• SUP 2: 1.3363/15 Low May 11 / 8
• SUP 3: 1.3302 Low Apr 14 and a key near-term support
• SUP 4: 1.3275 Low Feb 14

USDCAD is in consolidation mode and remains above the May 16 low. The recovery from the May 8 low has eased recent bearish pressure and the pair has traded through the 50-day EMA, currently at 1.3513. A clear breach of this average would strengthen the case for bulls and signal scope for a climb towards resistance at 1.3668, the Apr 28 high. Key support lies at 1.3302, the Apr 14 low. A break would reinstate a bearish theme.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 138.09 High Apr 6
• RES 3: 137.55 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 2: 137.29 High May 11
• RES 1: 135.19/136.38 20-day EMA / High May 16
• PRICE: 134.09 @ 05:13 BST May 23
• SUP 1: 133.50 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 133.10 Low Apr 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 132.71 76.4%retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 132.37 Low Mar 10

Bund futures remain in bearish mode following last week’s move lower. Support at 134.99, the May 10 low, was breached and this strengthened the bearish theme, paving the way for a continuation near-term. The focus is on key support at 133.10, the Apr 19 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 137.29, the May 11 high. Initial resistance is 135.19, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Short-Term Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 119.120 High May 4 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 118.610/119.020 High May 16 / 11
• RES 2: 118.240 High May 17
• RES 1: 117.861 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 117.280 @ 05:19 BST May 23
• SUP 1: 117.020 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 116.890 Low Apr 28
• SUP 3: 116.720 Low Apr 25
• SUP 4: 116.420 Low Apr19 and the bear trigger

The short-term outlook in Bobl futures remains bearish. The contract last week breached support at 117.930, the May 10 low. The break signals scope for an extension lower and opens 116.890, the Apr 28 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 119.120, the May 4 high where a break is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme. Initial firm resistance is seen at 117.861, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 106.190 High Apr 6
• RES 3: 106.020/106.120 High May 11 / 4
• RES 2: 105.910 High May 16
• RES 1: 105.663 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 105.465 @ 05:19 BST May 23
• SUP 1: 105.390 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 105.350 Low Apr 28
• SUP 3: 105.235 Low Apr 25
• SUP 4: 105.165 Low Apr 19 / 24 and bear trigger

A short-term bearish cycle in Schatz futures remains in play and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Price last week breached support at 105.705, May 10 low. This strengthens near-term bearish conditions and signals scope for a deeper retracement towards 105.350, the Apr 28 low. On the upside, the bull trigger has been defined at 106.120, the May 4 high. Initial resistance is seen at 105.663, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Southbound

• RES 4: 101.15 High May 16
• RES 3: 100.48 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 99.73/100.11 Low Apr 19 / High May 18
• RES 1: 99.21 High May 19
• PRICE: 98.08 @ Close May 22
• SUP 1: 97.60 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 97.46 61.8% retracement of the Oct 12 - Nov 24 2022 rally
• SUP 3: 97.00 2.00 projection of the May 3 - 10 - 11 price swing
• SUP 4: 96.41 2.236 projection of the May 3 - 10 - 11 price swing

Gilt futures remain in a bear mode position and last week’s break lower marked an acceleration of the downtrend. The contract has cleared support at 99.73, the Apr 19 low, and 99.20, the Feb 28 low and a key support level. Note that price has also traded through the late Dec 2022 lows. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and signals scope for weakness towards 97.00, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is 99.73.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Bearish Threat

• RES 4: 116.97 High Apr 6
• RES 3: 116.17 76.4% retracement of the Mar 24 - Apr 24 downleg
• RES 2: 115.48/89 High May 16 / 11
• RES 1: 114.95 High May 18
• PRICE: 113.87 @ Close May 22
• SUP 1: 113.46 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 112.93/89 Low Apr 24 / 61.8% of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 3: 111.88 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 4: 111.05 Low Mar 8

A bearish threat in BTP futures remains present. The contract traded sharply lower last Thursday and price moved below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Furthermore, support at 113.91, the May 10 low, has been breached. This signals scope for an extension lower towards key support at 112.93, the Apr 24 low. A breach of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. Key short-term resistance is at 115.89, the May 11 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Trading AT Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 4510.50 0.618 proj of the Mar 20 - Apr 21 - May 4 price swing
• RES 3: 4457.50 0.5 proj of the Mar 20 - Apr 21 - May 4 price swing
• RES 2: 4448.00 High Jan 2008 (cont)
• RES 1: 4409.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• PRICE: 4391.00 @ 05:38 BST May 23
• SUP 1: 4321.00/4263.00 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 4233.00 Low May 4
• SUP 3: 4175.00 Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: 4164.00 High Mar 22

Eurostoxx 50 futures outlook remains bullish and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Price has recently cleared resistance at 4363.00, the Apr 21 high and a bull trigger. The break confirms a resumption of the bull cycle from Mar 20 and a continuation of the medium-term uptrend. This opens 4409.50, the Nov 18 2021 high on the continuation chart and a key resistance. Firm support is at 4263.00, the 50-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M3) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 4288.00 High Aug 19 2022
• RES 3: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and a medium-term bull trigger
• RES 2: 4231.00 High Feb 3
• RES 1: 4227.25 High May 19
• PRICE: 4209.50 @ 06:45 BST May 23
• SUP 1: 4123.13/4062.25 50-day EMA / Low May 4 and key support
• SUP 2: 4052.50 Low Mar 30
• SUP 3: 4022.75 50.0% retracement of the Mar 13 - May 1 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4006.00 Low Mar 29

The S&P E-minis trend needle continues to point north. The contract traded higher last week and breached key short-term resistance and the bull trigger at 4206.25, the May 1 high. Clearance of this level confirms an extension of the bull trend from Mar 13. This opens 4244.00, the Feb 2 high and the next important resistance. Key support is at 4062.25, the May 4 low. A move through this level would highlight a bearish threat.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N3) Bear Threat Still Present

• RES 4: $85.08 - High Apr 18
• RES 3: $82.88 - High Apr 25
• RES 2: $78.63 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $77.60 - High May 10
• PRICE: $76.17 @ 06:49 BST May 23
• SUP 1: $73.49/71.28 - Low May 15 / 4
• SUP 2: $70.10 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 3: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $65.72 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)

A bearish threat in Brent futures remains present. The contract is consolidating below the recent high of $77.60 (May 10) and below resistance at the 50-day EMA which intersects at $78.63. A clear break of the average is required to strengthen a bullish threat and signal scope for a stronger recovery. On the downside, a breach of $73.49, the May 15 low, would set the scene for an extension towards $71.28, the May 4 low.

WTI TECHS: (N3) Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $80.93 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $79.00 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $76.74 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $73.81 - High May 10 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $72.30 @ 06:54 BST May 23
• SUP 1: $69.39/63.90 - Low May 15 / 4
• SUP 2: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)
• SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $57.63 - Low Apr 5 2021 (cont)

A short-term bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and initial resistance at $73.81, the May 10 high, is intact. A resumption of weakness and a break of $69.39, the May 15 low, would strengthen near-term bearish conditions. The recent print below $64.67, the Mar 20 low and a key support, is a key bearish development. A clear break of it would resume the broader downtrend.

GOLD TECHS: Approaching Trendline Support

• RES 4: $2075.5 - All-Time High Aug 7 2020
• RES 3: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $2022.6/2063.0 - High May 12 / 4 and key resistance
• RES 1: $1996.4 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $1962.6.9 07:13 BST May 23
• SUP 1: $1952.0 - Low May 18
• SUP 2: $1934.3 - Low Mar 22
• SUP 3: $1926.9 - Trendline support drawn from the Nov 3 2022
• SUP 4: $1900.0 - Round number support

Gold remains in a bearish cycle and is trading closer to its recent lows. The yellow metal last week cleared support at $1976.1, the 50-day EMA and $1969.3, the Apr 19 low. The clear break of this support zone highlights a stronger bearish threat and opens $1934.3, the Mar 22 low and $1926.9, trendline support drawn from Nov 3 2022. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $2063.0, May 4 high. Initial firm resistance is $2022.6, the May 12 high.

SILVER TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $26.135 - High May 5
• RES 1: $24.492 - Apr 25 low and double top mid-point
• PRICE: $23.541 @ 07:17 BST May 23
• SUP 1: $23.327 - Low May 18
• SUP 2: $23.238 - Low Mar 30
• SUP 3: $22.761 - Low Mar 23
• SUP 4: $22.284 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally

Silver bears remain in the driver’s seat. The May 11 sell-off confirmed a double top reversal pattern following the break of $24.492, the Apr 25 low. The metal has also breached the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This signals scope for a move towards $23.238, the Mar 30 low. Initial resistance is seen at $24.492, the double top mid-point. Key resistance has been defined at $26.135, the May 5 high.