MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD/USD Remains Vulnerable

Price Signal Summary – AUD/USD Remains Vulnerable

• The short-term trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bearish. Today’s extension reinforces current short-term conditions. The contract has this week cleared support at the 50-day EMA, signalling scope for a continuation lower near-term. Eurostoxx 50 futures have traded to a fresh S/T cycle low today. A bearish corrective cycle remains in play and the move down this month has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. The contract has breached support at 4858.80, the 50-day EMA.
• The current downtrend in EURUSD remains intact and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. The break on Apr 12 of key support at 1.0695, the Feb 14 low and bear trigger, confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle. The trend condition in EURJPY remains bullish and this is reinforced by the fact that the cross - for now - remains above key support at 163.57 - a trendline drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low. This line has again been pierced today. AUDUSD remains vulnerable and the pair has traded to a fresh trend low today. Key support at 0.6443, the Feb 13 low, has recently been cleared highlighting an important technical breach that has confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started late December last year.
• The trend condition in Gold is unchanged and the outlook remains bullish with price continuing to trade closer to its recent highs. The latest rally maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition. A bull theme in WTI futures remains intact, however, this week’s move lower signals the start of a short-term bearish corrective cycle. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and this signals scope for an extension towards the 50-day EMA.
• The trend outlook in Bund futures remains bearish and this week’s move lower reinforces current conditions. The contract has recently pierced key support at 131.23, Feb 29 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact and the contract has traded lower this week, delivering a fresh cycle low of 96.01 on Wednesday. The move down maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 1.0943 High Mar 21
• RES 3: 1.0885 High Apr 09
• RES 2: 1.0749/0801 20- and 50-day EMA values
• RES 1: 1.0725 Low Apr 2
• PRICE: 1.0634 @ 05:55 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 1.0601 Low Apr 16
• SUP 2: 1.0568 Low Nov 2 ‘23
• SUP 3: 1.0549 Base of a bear channel drawn from the Dec 28 high
• SUP 4: 1.0517 Low Nov 1 ‘23

The current downtrend in EURUSD remains intact and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows.The break on Apr 12 of key support at 1.0695, the Feb 14 low and bear trigger, confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle. This signals scope for a move towards 1.0568 next, the Nov 2 2023 low, and 1.0549, the base of a bear channel drawn from the Dec 28 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.0749, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Fresh Trend Low

• RES 4: 1.2865 High Mar 11
• RES 3: 1.2803 High Mar 21
• RES 2: 1.2709 High Apr 09
• RES 1: 1.2561/1.2617 20-and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: 1.2420 @ 06:13 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 1.2389 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.2364 61.8% retracement of the Oct 4 - Mar 8 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.2266 Low Nov 14 ‘23
• SUP 4: 1.2239 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 - Mar 8 bull leg

The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and the pair has traded to a fresh cycle low today. The recent breach of 1.2519, the Feb 5 low, strengthens a downtrend and highlights a stronger reversal. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up, reinforcing a bearish theme. Scope is seen for an extension towards 1.2364, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2561, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 0.8678 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 bear cycle
• RES 3: 0.8620 High Jan 20
• RES 2: 0.8607 23.6% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 bear cycle
• RES 1: 0.8586/8602 High Apr 05 / High Mar 22 and key resistance
• PRICE: 0.8564 @ 06:39 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 0.8521/8504 Low Apr 17 / Low Mar 8
• SUP 2: 0.8498/93 Low Feb 14 / Low Aug 23 2023 and key support
• SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
• SUP 4: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2023

EURGBP remains above Wednesday’s low and continues to trade inside a broad range. A continuation higher would refocus attention on key resistance at 0.8602, the Mar 22 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the recovery that started Feb 14 and open 0.8678, a Fibonacci retracement. Support to watch is 0.8521, the Apr 15 low. A clear break of this level would expose key support at 0.8498/93, Feb 14 and Aug 23 2023 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bullish

• RES 4: 156.47 2.00 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 3: 155.29 1.764 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 2: 155.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 154.79 High Apr 16
• PRICE: 154.32 @ 06:56 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 152.98 Low Apr 15
• SUP 2: 152.55/150.88 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 149.03 Low Mar 19
• SUP 4: 147.44 Low Mar 14

USDJPY bulls have paused for breath. The break higher last week confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The trend is overbought, however, this is clearly not a concern for bulls at this stage. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too. Sights are on the 155.00 handle next. Support lies at 152.55, 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Pierces Trendline Support

• RES 4: 167.59 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 166.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 165.35 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 165.17 High Apr 09
• PRICE: 164.20 @ 07:12 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 163.57/162.28 Trendline from Dec 7 ‘23 low / Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 161.07 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 160.72 38.2% retracement of the Dec 7 ‘23 - Mar 20 rally
• SUP 4: 160.22 Low Mar 11

The trend condition in EURJPY remains bullish and this is reinforced by the fact that the cross - for now - remains above key support at 163.57 - a trendline drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low. This line has again been pierced today. A clear break of it is required to signal a short-term reversal and this would also highlight a break of the 50-day EMA, at 162.95. For bulls, key resistance is unchanged at 165.35, the Mar 20 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Southbound

• RES 4: 0.6644 High Apr 9
• RES 3: 0.6537 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.6507 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.6481 Low Apr 1 and a recent breakout level
• PRICE: 0.6411 @ 08:01 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 0.6363 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.6315 Low Oct 31 ‘23
• SUP 4: 0.6270 Low Oct 26 ‘23 and a key support

AUDUSD remains vulnerable and the pair has traded to a fresh trend low today. Key support at 0.6443, the Feb 13 low, has recently been cleared highlighting an important technical breach that has confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started late December last year. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6339, the Nov 10 ‘23 low. Firm resistance is seen at 0.6537, the 50-day EMA. Short-term gains are considered corrective.

USDCAD TECHS: Pullback Appears To Be A Correction

• RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘22 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3855 High Nov 10 2023
• RES 1: 1.3846 High Apr 16
• PRICE: 1.3760 @ 08:06 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 1.3682 Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 1.3659 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3584 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4

A bullish trend condition in USDCAD remains intact. The pair has recently cleared resistance and congestion at 1.3614, the Mar 19, 22, 25 and 29 high. This opens 1.3855 next, the Nov 10 ‘23 high. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear rising trend. The pullback from Tuesday’s high is considered corrective and is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. Initial firm support lies at 1.3659, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M4) Trend Structure Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 134.15 High Mar 8 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 133.48 High Mar 27
• RES 2: 133.05 High Apr 12
• RES 1: 132.16 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 131.64 @ 05:36 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 130.97 Low Apr 16
• SUP 2: 130.87 1.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 130.25 1.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 130.00 Round number support

The trend outlook in Bund futures remains bearish and this week’s move lower reinforces current conditions. The contract has recently pierced key support at 131.23, Feb 29 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Attention is on 130.87 and 130.25, Fibonacci projections. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 133.05, the Apr 12 high. Short-term gains are - for now - considered corrective.

BOBL TECHS: (M4) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 118.790 High Feb 15 and Mar 8 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 118.460 High Mar 12
• RES 3: 118.100/118.310 High Apr 12 / High Mar 27
• RES 1: 117.685 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 117.360 @ 05:42 BST Apr 18
• SUP 1: 117.200/020 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger / Low Apr 17
• SUP 2: 117.000 Round number support
• SUP 3: 116.740 High Mar 5 (cont)
• SUP 4: 116.518 1.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing

A bearish threat in Bobl futures remains present and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent lows. Key support lies at 117.200, the Feb 29 low. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would confirm a continuation of the downtrend that started early December last year and open 116.740, the Mar 5 high (cont). For bulls, a break of resistance at 118.310, the Mar 27 high, would instead highlight a reversal. First resistance is 117.627, 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M4) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 106.040 Low Feb 15
• RES 3: 106.010 High Mar 8
• RES 2: 105.790/875 High Mar 25 and key resistance / High Mar 12
• RES 1: 105.680 High Apr 12
• PRICE: 105.425 @ 06:19 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 105.340 Low Apr 18
• SUP 2: 105.310 High Feb 26 (cont)
• SUP 3: 105.295 1.236 proj of the Aug 8 - Mar 18 - Mar 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 105.106 1.382 proj of the Aug 8 - Mar 18 - Mar 25 price swing

The trend condition in Schatz futures is unchanged and remains bearish. The recent break of support at 105.490, the Feb 29 low and bear trigger, confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started late December last year. The focus is on 105.295, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 105.790, the Mar 25 high. Short-term gains are - for now - considered corrective.

GILT TECHS: (M4) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 100.05 High Mar 22
• RES 3: 99.37 High Apr 4
• RES 2: 99.10 High Apr 10
• RES 1: 97.51/98.23 High Apr 15 / High Apr 12
• PRICE: 96.75 @ Close Apr 18
• SUP 1: 96.01 Low Apr 17
• SUP 2: 95.96 1.764 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing
• SUP 3: 95.41 2.00 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 95.00 Round number support

A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact and the contract has traded lower this week, delivering a fresh cycle low of 96.01 on Wednesday. The move down maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies have crossed and highlight a bear-mode set-up. Scope is seen for an extension towards 95.96 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is 98.23, the Apr 12 high.

BTP TECHS: (M4) Watching Key Support

• RES 4: 121.19 2.382 proj of the Feb 22 - 26 - 29 price swing
• RES 3: 120.65 High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 119.55/120.28 High Mar 27 / 14
• RES 1: 119.10 High Apr 10
• PRICE: 117.43 @ Close Apr 18
• SUP 1: 116.52 Low Feb 29
• SUP 2: 116.15 Low Feb 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 116.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 115.70 Low Dec 8 ‘23 (cont)

A bearish threat in BTP futures remains present and this week’s move lower reinforces this theme. Recent weakness resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA and a breach of 118.33, the Mar 15 low. Attention is on 116.52, the Feb 29 low and 116.15, the Feb 22 low and a key support. A clear break of the latter level would signal a stronger reversal. On the upside, clearance of resistance at 119.10, the Mar 27 high, would instead reinstate a bull cycle.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Has Cleared The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 4990.00/5079.00 High Apr 15 / 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 4933.00 20-day EMA 5100.00
• RES 1: 4861.00 Intraday low
• PRICE: 4820.00 @ 06:36 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 4762.00 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 4711.00 Low Feb 19
• SUP 3: 4700.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4626.00 Low Feb 13

Eurostoxx 50 futures have traded to a fresh S/T cycle low today. A bearish corrective cycle remains in play and the move down this month has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. The contract has breached support at 4858.80, the 50-day EMA and a key pivot price point. The clear break of this average signal scope for a deeper retracement and opens 4711.00, the Feb 19 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 4933.00, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Bear Leg Extends

• RES 4: 5400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 5285.00/5333.50 High Apr 10 / 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 5181.29 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 5095.25/5146.82 High Apr 18 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 5015.75 @ 07:26 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 4963.50 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 4907.57 50.0% retracement of the Oct 27 ‘23 - Apr 1 bull leg
• SUP 3: 4863.75 Low Jan 19
• SUP 4: 4799.50 Low Jan 17

The short-term trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bearish. Today’s extension reinforces current short-term conditions. The contract has this week cleared support at the 50-day EMA, signalling scope for a continuation lower near-term. Sights are on 4907.57 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Firm resistance is seen at 5181.29, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the average would signal a possible reversal.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M4) Retracement Mode

• RES 4: $96.16 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $94.94 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $92.96 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 1: $92.18 - High Apr 12
• PRICE: $8.39 @ 07:17 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: $85.42 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $80.56 - 61.8% retracement of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull cycle
• SUP 3: $76.18 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $72.38 Low Dec 13 and a key support

Brent futures are trading in a volatile manner today. This week’s activity has resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA. The move lower highlights the start of a corrective cycle and suggests potential for an extension towards $85.42, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to suggest scope for a deeper retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $92.18, the Apr 12 high. A break would resume the uptrend.

WTI TECHS: (M4) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: $91.24 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $88.07 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 1: $86.97 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $73.74 @ 07:09 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: $80.64 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $76.07 - Low Mar 11
• SUP 3: $71.47 Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $70.11 - Low Jan 3

A bull theme in WTI futures remains intact, however, this week’s move lower signals the start of a short-term bearish corrective cycle. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and this signals scope for an extension towards the 50-day EMA, at $80.64. A clear break of the 50-day EMA would signal a stronger bearish theme. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $86.97, the Apr 12 high.

GOLD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $2500.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $2481.5 - 1.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $2431.5 High Apr 12
• PRICE: $2382.0 @ 07:25 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: $2301.6 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $2205.6 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: $2088.5 - High Dec 28

The trend condition in Gold is unchanged and the outlook remains bullish with price continuing to trade closer to its recent highs. The latest rally maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition, reflecting positive market sentiment. The next objective is $2452.5, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at $2301.6, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: $30.912 - 3.00 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $30.100 - Feb 2021 high and a key resistance
• RES 2: $30.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $29.797 - High Apr 12
• PRICE: $28.491 @ 08:11 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: $27.037 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $25.516/328 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 27
• SUP 3: $22.277 - Low Feb 28
• SUP 4: $21.928 - Low Jan 22 and a key support

Despite the pullback in Silver from last Friday’s high, the trend outlook remains bullish. Fresh trend gains last week and a bullish moving average set-up, reinforce the current positive outlook. The latest rally signals scope for a climb towards the $30.00 psychological handle. Initial firm support lies at $27.037, the 20-day EMA. A move lower in the metal would be considered corrective.