MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUDUSD Extends Downside Reversal

Price Signal Summary – AUDUSD Extends Downside Reversal

• A bull theme in S&P E-minis remains intact and the recent pullback appears to be a correction. The latest move lower has allowed a recent overbought condition to unwind. Initial key support lies at the 20-day EMA, at 4365.83. A break of this average would strengthen a short-term bearish theme. The Eurostoxx 50 futures uptrend remains intact and the pair has recovered from Monday’s low. A bearish cycle since Jun 16 resulted in a correction. The contract breached support at 4301.00, the Jun 8 low. This level represented a key short-term support and an extension lower would expose 4241.00
• The primary uptrend in GBPUSD remains intact, however, a corrective cycle remains in play. The recent move lower is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. Support to watch lies at 1.2651, the 20-day EMA. Another bullish session in USDJPY yesterday and the pair touched a new multi-month high. The pair is approaching 144.40 - the 1.382 projection of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing and 145.04 further out, resistance at the 2.0% 10-dma envelope. AUDUSD has traded lower today, extending the reversal that started Jun 16. The recent move lower has resulted in a break of the 20- and 50-day EMA values, suggesting scope for a deeper retracement. 0.6627, 61.8% of the May 31 - Jun 16 rally, has been pierced.
• Trend conditions in Gold are unchanged and the outlook remains bearish following last week’s move lower. Trendline support has been breached - the line is drawn from the Nov 3 2022 low and the break reinforces a bearish condition. WTI futures remain in a bear mode condition and the sharp sell-off late last week reinforces this condition. Support at $67.21, the May 31 low, has recently been pierced, a clear break would open $64.41, the May 4 low.
• Bund futures have pulled back from yesterday’s high. The contract has this week breached resistance at 134.77, the Jun 12 high. The latest gains have eased recent bearish pressure and the breach of 134.77 signals scope for a stronger recovery towards 135.85. A strong bounce in Gilt futures last Friday resulted in a clear break of resistance at the 20-day EMA. The contract has since pulled back. Short-term gains are considered corrective and a continuation higher would expose key resistance at 97.64, the Jun 1 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
• RES 3: 1.1095 High Apr 26 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.1054 High May 8
• RES 1: 1.0977/1012 High Jun 27 / 22 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.0948 @ 05:38 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 1.0849/04 50-day EMA / Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: 1.0733 Low Jun 12
• SUP 3: 1.0667 Low Jun 6
• SUP 4: 1.0635 Low May 31 and the bear trigger

EURUSD is firmer this week but remains below last week’s high of 1.1012 (Jun 22). The latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. Key support to watch is at 1.0849, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper pullback, opening 1.0804, the Jun 15 low and 1.0733, the Jun 12 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 1.1012. A break would resume the recent bull cycle.

GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 1.3000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 1.2977 0.764 proj of the Mar 8 - May 10 - May 25 price swing
• RES 2: 1.2877 High Apr 25 2022
• RES 1: 1.2849 0.618 proj of the Mar 8 - May 10 - May 25 price swing
• PRICE: 1.2726 @ 05:52 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 1.2680 High May 10
• SUP 2: 1.2651/2539 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 1.2433 Low Jun 8
• SUP 4: 1.2369 Low Jun 5 and a key support

The primary uptrend in GBPUSD remains intact, however, a corrective cycle remains in play. The recent move lower is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. Support to watch lies at 1.2651, the 20-day EMA. The recent break of 1.2680, the May 10 high and a bull trigger, strengthens a bullish condition and opens 1.2849 next, a Fibonacci projection. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

EURGBP TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 0.8768 High May 5
• RES 3: 0.8719 High May 23
• RES 2: 0.8654 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8636 High Jun 5
• PRICE: 0.8603 @ 06:06 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 0.8518 Low Jun 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8482 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.8408 Low Aug 24 2023

The primary trend direction in EURGBP remains down and short-term gains are considered corrective. The pullback from Friday’s high of 0.8636 confirms recent gains as corrective and resistance at the 50-day EMA at 0.8654, remains intact. A clear break of this average would highlight a stronger reversal. For bears, clearance of 0.8518, the Jun 19 low, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

USDJPY TECHS: RSI Highlights Overbought Condition

• RES 4: 146.12 76.4% Oct-Jan Downleg
• RES 3: 145.04 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 144.40 1.382 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 1: 144.17 High Jun 27
• PRICE: 143.92 @ 06:23 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 141.84 Former bull channel top drawn from the Jan 16 high
• SUP 2: 141.21/22 Low Jun 20 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 139.85 Low Jun 16
• SUP 4: 138.85 50-day EMA

Another bullish session in USDJPY yesterday and the pair touched a new multi-month high. The pair is approaching 144.40 - the 1.382 projection of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing and 145.04 further out, resistance at the 2.0% 10-dma envelope. Technically, USDJPY is now the most overbought (as per the 14-day RSI) since mid-October. Key short-term support is at 141.22 the 20-day EMA. A break would suggest scope for a deeper correction.

EURJPY TECHS: Bull Trend Extends

• RES 4: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 158.72 2.00 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 158.49 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 157.94 High Jun 27 and intraday high
• PRICE: 157.65 @ 06:55 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 155.06/154.05 Low Jun 23 / 20 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 153.54 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 151.61 Low Jun 15
• SUP 4: 150.65 50-day EMA

EURJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat. The uptrend extended Tuesday to put the cross at a fresh multi-month high. Tuesday’s price action reinforces the current bullish theme after the latest impulsive rally. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting positive market sentiment. The focus is on 158.72, a Fibonacci projection. Initial key support is at 155.06, the Jun 23 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 0.6993 76.4% retracement of the Feb - May downleg
• RES 3: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 2: 0.6857/6900 High Jun 20 / 16 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6722/6806 20-day EMA / High Jun 27
• PRICE: 0.6637 @ 07:57 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 0.6619 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.6610 Low Jun 6
• SUP 3: 0.6562 76.4% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 16 rally
• SUP 4: 0.6485 Low Jun 1

AUDUSD has traded lower today, extending the reversal that started Jun 16. The recent move lower has resulted in a break of the 20- and 50-day EMA values, suggesting scope for a deeper retracement. 0.6627, 61.8% of the May 31 - Jun 16 rally, has been pierced. A clear break would open 0.6562, the 76.4% retracement level. Key resistance is 0.6900, the Jun 16 high. Initial resistance is at 0.6722, the 20-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Bounce Off Trend Lows Is Likely A Correction

• RES 4: 1.3392 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.3355 High Jun 15
• RES 2: 1.3286 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3246 High Jun 21
• PRICE: 1.3224 @ 08:03 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 1.3084 1.618 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing
• SUP 2: 1.2992 50.0% retracement of the Jun - Oct 2022 bull rally
• SUP 3: 1.2954 Low Sep 13 2022
• SUP 4: 1.2895 Low Aug 25

USDCAD initially traded lower Tuesday before bouncing off the day’s lowest levels. Nonetheless, the trend outlook remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting current sentiment. Scope is seen for a move towards 1.2992, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, firm resistance is seen at 1.3286, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Watching SUpport At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 136.50 High May 11
• RES 3: 135.85 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 135.61 High Jun 2
• RES 1: 135.00 High Jun 27
• PRICE: 134.09 @ 06:30 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 133.79/132.47 20-day EMA / Low Jun 22
• SUP 2: 132.12 Low May 26 and key support
• SUP 3: 131.89 1.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 131.21 1.236 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Bund futures have pulled back from yesterday’s high. The contract has this week breached resistance at 134.77, the Jun 12 high. The latest gains have eased recent bearish pressure and the breach of 134.77 signals scope for a stronger recovery towards 135.85, the Jun 1 high. Initial support lies at the 20-day EMA, at 133.79. A break would be a bearish development. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 132.12, the May 26 low.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 117.700 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 117.200 High Jun 6
• RES 2: 116.990/117.010 High Jun 12 / 7
• RES 1: 116.450 High Jun 26
• PRICE: 115.930 @ 05:28 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 115.320 Low Jun 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 115.198 1.236 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 115.986 1.382 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 114.815 1.50 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Bobl futures found resistance yesterday and price has pulled back from Tuesday’s high. The contract has recently pierced the 20-day EMA which intersects at 116.221. However, gains are considered corrective and the outlook remains bearish. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a downtrend. The focus is on 115.198, a Fibonacci projection. A clear break of the 20-day EMA would highlight a bullish threat.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 105.550 High Jun 12 and key near-term resistance
• RES 3: 105.495 High Jun 13
• RES 2: 105.211 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 105.130 High Jun 26
• PRICE: 104.935 @ 05:42 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 104.804 1.382 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 2: 104.740 1.50 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 104.695 Low Mar 10 (cont)
• SUP 4: 104.597 1.764 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Schatz futures remain in a downtrend and recent gains are considered corrective. Last week’s fresh cycle lows confirm a resumption of the downtrend. This extends the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a downtrend. The focus is on 104.804 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance to watch is at 105.211, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Pulls Back From Friday’s High

• RES 4: 98.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 97.64 High Jun 1 and the reversal trigger
• RES 2: 97.43 High Jun 2
• RES 1: 97.00 High Jun 23
• PRICE: 95.42 @ Close Jun 27
• SUP 1: 95.32/93.88 Low Jun 23 / 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 93.45 1.618 proj of the Feb 2 - 28 - Mar 20 price swing (cont)
• SUP 3: 93.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 92.66 Low Oct 14 2022 (cont)

A strong bounce in Gilt futures last Friday resulted in a clear break of resistance at the 20-day EMA. The contract has since pulled back. Short-term gains are considered corrective and a continuation higher would expose key resistance at 97.64, the Jun 1 high. The medium-term trend condition is bearish - a stronger reversal lower and a break of 93.88, the Jun 20 low, would confirm a resumption of the trend.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 118.41 1.00 projection of May 26 - Jun 2 - Jun 8 price swing
• RES 3: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 2: 118.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 117.60 High Jun 26
• PRICE: 116.97 @ Close Jun 27
• SUP 1: 115.89/114.61 20-day EMA / Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: 113.83 Low Jun 8 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 112.48 Low May 29
• SUP 4: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support

BTP futures traded to a fresh cycle high on Monday. Price has breached resistance at 117.16, the Jun 16 high and a short-term bull trigger. This reinforces a bullish condition and signals scope for a climb towards the 118.00 handle next. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull mode condition. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 114.61, the Jun 15 low. A break would highlight a potential reversal.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Recent Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 4487.00 1.50 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 4472.40 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 4448.00 High Jan 2008 (cont)
• RES 1: 4344.40/4438.00 20-day EMA / High Jun 16 and bull trigger
• PRICE: 4353.00 @ 06:47 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 4262.00 Low Jun 26
• SUP 2: 4241.00 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4200.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4150.00 Low Mar 29

The Eurostoxx 50 futures uptrend remains intact and the pair has recovered from Monday’s low. A bearish cycle since Jun 16 resulted in a correction. The contract breached support at 4301.00, the Jun 8 low. This level represented a key short-term support and an extension lower would expose 4241.00, the May 31 low and an important medium-term support point. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 4438.00, the Jun 16 high.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Support At The 20-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: 4556.71 2.382 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 4532.08 2.236 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 4512.24 Bull channel top drawn from the Oct 2022 low (cont)
• RES 1: 4493.75 High Jun 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4412725 @ 07:12 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 4365.83 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4283.68 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4154.75 Low May 24
• SUP 4: 4098.25 Low May 4 and a key support

A bull theme in S&P E-minis remains intact and the recent pullback appears to be a correction. The latest move lower has allowed a recent overbought condition to unwind. Initial key support lies at the 20-day EMA, at 4365.83. A break of this average would strengthen a short-term bearish theme and signal scope for a deeper pullback. On the upside, the bull trigger is 4493.75, the Jun 16 high. A break would open 4512.24 the top of a bull channel.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q3) Bear Threat Still Present

• RES 4: $84.56 - High Apr 18
• RES 3: $82.47 - High Apr 25
• RES 2: $80.08 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $77.24/78.73 - High Jun 21 / 5 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: $72.74 @ 07:07BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: $71.50 - Low May 31
• SUP 2: $71.20 - Low Jun 20 / Low May 4
• SUP 3: $70.06 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 4: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)

Brent futures traded sharply lower late last week - a bearish development - and yesterday’s move lower reinforces the current bearish threat. Scope is seen for a move towards $71.20, the May 4 low, ahead of $70.06, the Mar 20 low. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode position and this highlights a downtrend. On the upside, clearance of $78.73, the Jun 5 high, would alter the picture. Initial resistance is at $77.24, the Jun 21 high.

WTI TECHS: (Q3) Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: $80.39 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $78.62 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $76.35 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $72.72/75.70 - High Jun 21 / High Jun 5 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $69.95 @ 06:57 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: $66.96 - Low Jun 12
• SUP 2: $64.41 - Low May 4 and key support
• SUP 3: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number

WTI futures remain in a bear mode condition and the sharp sell-off late last week reinforces this condition. Support at $67.21, the May 31 low, has recently been pierced, a clear break would open $64.41, the May 4 low. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position highlighting a downtrend. The contract is trading below resistance at $75.70, the Jun 5 high. A break of this level would signal a reversal.

GOLD TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $2063.0 - High May 4
• RES 2: $2022.6 - High May 12
• RES 1: $1943.2/85.3 - 20-day EMA / High May 24 and key resistance
• PRICE: $1916.3 @ 07:14 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: $1910.3 - Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: $1903.5 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle
• SUP 3: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle

Trend conditions in Gold are unchanged and the outlook remains bearish following last week’s move lower. Trendline support has been breached - the line is drawn from the Nov 3 2022 low and the break reinforces a bearish condition. The focus is on $1903.5, 61.8% of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle. Key resistance is $1985.3, the May 24 high. Initial resistance is at $1943.2, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Recent Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.477/26.135 - High May 11 / 5 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $23.338/24.530 - 20-day EMA / High Jun 12
• PRICE: $22.815 @ 08:06 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: $22.111 - Low Jun 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally
• SUP 3: $20.591 - Low Mar 13
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

A sharp sell-off in Silver last week reinforces a bearish theme and the latest gains are considered corrective. The metal has cleared support at $22.682, the May 26 low and bear trigger, to confirm resumption of the downtrend. This paves the way for a move towards the $22.00 handle and $21.375, a Fibonacci retracement point. Key resistance has been refined at $24.530, the Jun 12 high. A break of this level would highlight a reversal.