MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bear Cycle Remains At Play in EuroStoxx50

Price Signal Summary – Bear Cycle Remains At Play in EuroStoxx50

• The E-mini S&P contract traded higher Monday. For now, gains are considered corrective and a bear cycle remains in play. Key resistance has been defined at 4597.50, the Sep 1 high. A break is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme. Despite the latest recovery, a bear cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play. Price has recently pierced key support at 4187.00, the Aug 18 low and a bear trigger. A clear break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and open 4177.40 next.
• The trend needle in GBPUSD continues to point south. Last week’s breach of 1.2548, the Aug 25 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The USDJPY trend condition remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Resistance at 147.37, the Aug 29 high and a bull trigger, was breached last week. The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Key support and the bear trigger at 0.6365, the Aug 17 low, was pierced last week. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.
• Gold is consolidating and trading closer to last week’s lows. Key support to watch lies at $1903.9, the Aug 25 low. A break of this level would be viewed as a bearish development and highlight the fact that the recovery between Aug 21 - Sep 1 has been a correction. The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and price is trading closer to its latest highs. The recent break of resistance at $84.16, the Aug 10 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and this maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• Bund futures continue to trade closer to their recent lows and remain vulnerable. Last week’s move lower resulted in a break of 131.18, the Aug 28 low. The move down undermines the recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bearish, despite the latest recovery. A move lower earlier last week resulted in a break of support at 94.14, the Aug 29 low. The breach undermines the recent bullish theme and highlights potential for a deeper retracement.

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Flag

• RES 4: 1.1005 High Aug 11
• RES 3: 1.0945 High Aug 30 and reversal trigger
• RES 2: 1.0814/1.0880 20- and 50-day EMA values
• RES 1: 1.0795 Former channel support-now-resistance
• PRICE: 1.0740 @ 05:39 BST Sep 14
• SUP 1: 1.0686 Low Sep 7
• SUP 2: 1.0668 Low Jun 7
• SUP 3: 1.0635 Low May 31 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0611 38.2% Fib retracement Sep’22 - Jul’23 upleg

EURUSD conditions remain bearish and the recent consolidation appears to be a bear flag formation. The bull channel breakout last week reinforced the current bearish condition and opens 1.0668 next, the Jun 7 low. The channel is drawn from the Mar 15 low. Note that moving average studies are in a bear mode set-up, highlighting the market's current sentiment. Key short-term resistance is at 1.0945, the Aug 30 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.2819 High Aug 10 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 1.2746 High Aug 30 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2613/2671 20- and 50-day EMA values
• RES 1: 1.2548 High Sep 11 / Low Aug 25 and a recent breakout point
• PRICE: 1.2511 @ 05:52 BST Sep 12
• SUP 1: 1.2446 Low Sep 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2433 Low Jun 8
• SUP 3: 1.2369 Low Jun 5
• SUP 4: 1.2308 1.764projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing

The trend needle in GBPUSD continues to point south. Last week’s breach of 1.2548, the Aug 25 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position too, highlighting a downtrend. The focus is on 1.2433, Jun 8 low. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2613, the 20-day EMA. First resistance is 1.2548.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 0.8701 High Jul 19 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8669 High Aug 11
• RES 2: 0.8620 100-dma
• RES 1: 0.8611 High Aug 30
• PRICE: 0.8484 @ 06:06 BST Sep 12
• SUP 1: 0.8524 Low Sep 06
• SUP 2: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8486 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8454 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 2022 bull leg

A bear threat in EURGBP remains present and the price continues to trade below resistance at 0.8611, the Aug 30 high. Note that the 50-day EMA - at 0.8587 - is also providing resistance. A clear break of this average and 0.8611 is required to strengthen a short-term bullish theme. For now, moving average studies highlight a medium-term downtrend, the bear trigger lies at 0.8493, Aug 23 low. First key support lies at 0.8524, the Sep 5 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Direction Remains Up

• RES 4: 148.85 High Oct 31 2022
• RES 3: 148.60 2.236 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 148.40 High Nov 4 2022
• RES 1: 147.87 High Sep 7 / 8
• PRICE: 146.75 @ 06:15 BST Sep 12
• SUP 1: 145.91/07 Low Sep 11 / High Jun 30
• SUP 2: 144.45 Low Sep 1 and key support
• SUP 3: 144.17 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 142.41 Low Aug 8

The USDJPY trend condition remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Resistance at 147.37, the Aug 29 high and a bull trigger, was breached last week. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 148.40 next, the Nov 4 2022 high. On the downside, 144.45 represents the key short-term support, the Sep 1 low. A break of this level is required to highlight a short-term top.

EURJPY TECHS: Monitoring Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 160.66 2.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 160.00 Psychological handle
• RES 2: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 158.52/159.76 High Sep 7 / High Aug 30 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 157.62 @ 06:41 BST Sep 12
• SUP 1: 156.59 Low Sep 11
• SUP 2: 156.57 38.2% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 rally
• SUP 3: 155.54 Low Aug 3
• SUP 4: 154.61 61.8% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 rally

The recent pullback in EURJPY appears to be a correction and the trend outlook remains bullish. Key support to watch is the 50-day EMA - at 156.84. This average was pierced yesterday. A clear breach of it would undermine the uptrend and highlight a possible short-term reversal. On the upside, the next bull trigger is 159.76, the Aug 30 high where a break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. This would open 160.66, a Fibonacci projection.

AUDUSD TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 0.6616 High Aug 16
• RES 3: 0.6535 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.6522 High Aug 30 and Sep 1 and the key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6447 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6428 @ 07:22 BST Sep 12
• SUP 1: 0.6357 Low Sep 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6287 2.00 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing

The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Key support and the bear trigger at 0.6365, the Aug 17 low, was pierced last week. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and pave the way for weakness towards 0.6272, the Nov 3 2022 low. Key short-term resistance to watch has been defined at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 1.3805 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 1.3731 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3719 High Sep 7
• RES 1: 1.3639 High Sep 11
• PRICE: 1.3574 @ 07:58 BST Sep 12
• SUP 1: 1.3558/3490 20-day EMA / Low Sep 1
• SUP 2: 1.3464 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3352 Low Aug 7
• SUP 4: 1.3266 Low Aug 2

The uptrend in USDCAD remains intact and the pullback from last week’s high appears to be a correction. Resistance at 1.3655, the May 26 high, has been cleared. That break exposes 1.3719, a trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 2022 high and the next key resistance. On the downside, key support has been defined at 1.3490, the Sep 1 low. Clearance of this support would signal a short-term top.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z3) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 132.91 High Aug 8
• RES 3: 132.78 High Sep 1
• RES 2: 131.82 High Sep 4
• RES 1: 131.28 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 130.73 @ 05:04 BST Sep 12
• SUP 1: 130.35 Low Sep 7
• SUP 2: 129.93 Low Aug 21
• SUP 3: 129.72 Low Aug 15 and key support
• SUP 4: 129.30 1.00 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing

Bund futures continue to trade closer to their recent lows and remain vulnerable. Last week’s move lower resulted in a break of 131.18, the Aug 28 low. The move down undermines the recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. Furthermore, the contract has breached support at 130.71, the Aug 23 low. A continuation would expose 129.72, the Aug 15 low and a key support. Key resistance is at 132.91, the Aug 8 high.

BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Bearish Outlook Intact

• RES 4: 117.640 High Aug 8
• RES 3: 117.610 High Sep 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 117.230 High Sep 4
• RES 1: 116.960 High Sep 5
• PRICE: 116.550 @ 05:14 BST Sep 12
• SUP 1: 116.320 Low Sep 7
• SUP 2: 116.170 Low Aug 21
• SUP 3: 116.000 Low Aug 15
• SUP 4: 115.620 1.236 retracement of the Aug 15 - Sep 1 climb

Bobl futures have recently pulled back from the Sep 1 high of 117.610. Last week’s extension resulted in a break of support at 116.610, the Aug 28 low. The breach undermines the recent bullish theme. Note that support at 116.500, the Aug 23 low, has also been cleared, strengthening a bearish condition. A continuation would expose 116.00, the Aug 15 low. A move above 117.610 would reinstate a bullish theme.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 105.704 1.236 projection of the Aug 15 - 24 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 105.580 High Aug 24 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 105.440 High Sep 4
• RES 1: 105.395 High Sep 5
• PRICE: 105.220 @ 04:55 BST Sep 12
• SUP 1: 105.130 Low Sep 7
• SUP 2: 105.041 1.236 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 3: 105.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 104.980 1.382 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing

Schatz futures maintain a bearish tone following the recent reversal from the early September high. The contract has cleared support at 105.160, the Aug 30 low and this strengthens the current bearish theme. The move lower signals scope for 105.041, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial resistance is at 105.395, the Sep 5 high. Key resistance has been defined at 105.580, the Aug 24 high.

GILT TECHS: (Z3) Recent Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 96.19 High Jul 31(cont)
• RES 3: 95.82 High Aug 10 (cont)
• RES 2: 95.79 High Sep 1 and key resistance
• RES 1: 94.95 High Sep 8
• PRICE: 94.18 @ Close Sep 11
• SUP 1: 93.36 Low Sep 6
• SUP 2: 93.12 61.8 retracement of the Aug 17 - Sep 1 rally
• SUP 3: 92.56 Low Aug 23
• SUP 4: 91.47 Low Aug 17 and key support

The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bearish, despite the latest recovery. A move lower earlier last week resulted in a break of support at 94.14, the Aug 29 low. The breach undermines the recent bullish theme and highlights potential for a deeper retracement with next key support at 93.12, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key short-term resistance is 95.79, the Sep 1 high. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bullish theme.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 118.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 117.48/60 High Jul 19 / Jun 26 and key resistance (cont)
• RES 2: 116.86 High Jul 24 (cont)
• RES 1: 113.94/115.56 20-day EMA / High Aug 24 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: 112.94 @ Close Sep 11
• SUP 1: 112.60 Low Aug 17 and a key support
• SUP 2: 112.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 111.38 2.618 proj of the Aug 24 - 28 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 110.77 3.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 28 - 31 price swing

A bearish theme in BTP futures remains intact following last week’s move lower. The contract has cleared support at 113.97, the Aug 28 low and the continuation lower exposes 112.60, the Aug 17 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. Short-term gains are considered corrective. Initial resistance is seen at 113.94, the 20-day EMA and key resistance is at 115.56, the Aug 24 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Trend Condition Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 4513.00 High Jul 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 4420.00 High Aug 10
• RES 2: 4358.00 Aug 30 high
• RES 1: 4282.20/4312.30 20- and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: 4265.00 @ 05:43 BST Sep 12
• SUP 1: 4177.40 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull leg
• SUP 2: 4122.00 Low Mar 28
• SUP 3: 4098.10 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4040.00 Low Mar 27

Despite the latest recovery, a bear cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play. Price has recently pierced key support at 4187.00, the Aug 18 low and a bear trigger. A clear break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and open 4177.40 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance has been defined at 4358.00, the Aug 30 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 4282.20 the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z3) Corrective Gains

• RES 4: 4685.25 High Jul 27 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4617.40 61.8% retracement of the Jul 27 - Aug 18 sell-off
• RES 2: 4597.50 High Sep 1 and a near-term bull trigger
• RES 1: 4553.25 High Sep 6
• PRICE: 4534.50 @ 06:41 BST Sep 12
• SUP 1: 4482.00 Low Aug 29
• SUP 2: 4397.75 Low Aug 18 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4378.75 Low Jun 9
• SUP 4: 4352.50 Low Jun 8

The E-mini S&P contract traded higher Monday. For now, gains are considered corrective and a bear cycle remains in play. Key resistance has been defined at 4597.50, the Sep 1 high. A break is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for a move towards the key support and bear trigger at 4397.75, the Aug 18 low. Clearance of this support would highlight a short-term reversal.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X3) Northbound

• RES 4: $96.95 - High Nov 14 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: $94.79 - High Nov 16
• RES 2: $92.91 - High Nov 17 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: $91.45 - High Sep 11
• PRICE: $90.92 @ 06:48 BST Sep 12
• SUP 1: $87.12 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $83.95 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $81.61 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $77.84 - Low Jul 17

Brent futures are consolidating and importantly for bulls, holding on to the bulk of their recent gains. This reinforces a bullish theme. The contract has breached the psychological $90.00 handle. A continuation higher would set the scene for gains towards $92.91, the Nov 17 2022 high (cont). On the downside, initial firm support to watch is at the 20-EMA which intersects at $87.12 today. A pullback in the contract would be considered corrective.

WTI TECHS: (V3) Holding On To Its Gains

• RES 4: $94.66 - 2.236 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 17 price swing
• RES 3: $92.17 - High Nov 8 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $88.15 - High Sep 6
• PRICE: $87.66 @ 06:55 BST Sep 12
• SUP 1: $83.39/80.05 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: $73.60 - Low Jul 17
• SUP 3: $69.72 - Low Jul 3
• SUP 4: $66.83 - Low Jun 12 and key support

The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and price is trading closer to its latest highs. The recent break of resistance at $84.16, the Aug 10 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and this maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that MA studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting positive sentiment. Sights are on the $90.00 handle. Initial firm support to watch lies at $83.39, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: $1999.6 - Low May 5
• RES 3: $1987.5 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $1963.3 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 20 - Aug 21 bear leg
• RES 1: $1930.2/53.0 - 50-day EMA / High Sep 4 and key resistance
• PRICE: $1919.3 @ 07:13 BST Sep 12
• SUP 1: $1903.9 - Low Aug 25
• SUP 2: $1884.9 - Low Aug 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1871.6 - Low Mar 13
• SUP 4: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull leg

Gold is consolidating and trading closer to last week’s lows. Key support to watch lies at $1903.9, the Aug 25 low. A break of this level would be viewed as a bearish development and highlight the fact that the recovery between Aug 21 - Sep 1 has been a correction. This would expose $1884.9, the Aug 21 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at $1930.2, the 50-day EMA. Key resistance is at $1953.0, the Sep 4 high.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Risk

• RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $26.267 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.149 - High Jul 27
• RES 1: $24.020/25.014 - High Sep 5 / High Aug 30
• PRICE: $23.022@ 07:16 BST Sep 12
• SUP 1: $22.667 - Low Aug 21
• SUP 2: $22.227 - Low Aug 15 and key support
• SUP 3: $22.111 - Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally

Silver maintains a softer tone and is trading at its recent lows. The metal has breached $23.413, the Aug 23 low. The break threatens the recent bullish theme and instead signals scope for a deeper pullback, potentially towards $22.227, the Aug 15 low. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on resistance at $25.014 and $26.267, the Aug 30 and Jul 20 highs respectively. The latter is a key resistance.