MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bear Cycle Remains Intact

Price Signal Summary – Bear Cycle Remains Intact

• S&P E-minis trend conditions remain bullish. Last week’s bounce from 4114.00, May 24 low, means that support around the 50-day EMA remains intact. The average intersects at 4129.2 and a clear break of it is required to signal a reversal. Eurostoxx 50 futures managed to find support last week at 4252.00, the May 25 low. This means that for now, support around the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 4271.40, remains intact for now.
• The EURUSD trend needle continues to point south. Last week’s extension lower reinforces bearish conditions, and the 1.0713 objective has been breached, the Mar 24 low. This paves the way for a move towards 1.0653 next. The EURGBP short-term trend needle continues to point south and a clear break of 0.8661, the May 11 low, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Attention is on 0.8649, a Fibonacci retracement and last Wednesday’s low. AUDUSD is consolidating closer to its recent lows and remains bearish. Last week’s sell-off resulted in a break of 0.6565, the Mar 10 low, confirming a resumption of the bear cycle that started Feb 2 and highlights a range breakout.
• The bear cycle in Gold remains intact and the yellow metal is trading lower today. Price is through a key level at $1938.0, trendline support drawn from Nov 3 2022. A clear breach of this trendline would reinforce bearish conditions and pave the way for a move towards $1903.5. The latest pullback in WTI futures means that - for now - the contract has failed to overcome resistance at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $74.24. Recent short-term gains are considered corrective, however, a clear breach of the 50-day EMA would highlight a stronger bullish theme.
• Bund futures started the week on a firmer note, trading higher Monday. Despite these gains, the outlook remains bearish. Price last week pierced key support at 133.10, the Apr 19 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and open 132.71. Gilt futures remain in a bear mode position and last week’s extension lower reinforces current conditions. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a downtrend and recently, on the continuation chart, price has cleared a number of key support levels.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 1.1007 High May 10
• RES 3: 1.0905 High May 16
• RES 2: 1.0833/52 20- and 50-day EMA values
• RES 1: 1.0759 High May 26
• PRICE: 1.0686 @ 08:20 BST May 30
• SUP 1: 1.0682 Intraday Low
• SUP 2: 1.0653 76.4% retracement of the Mar 15 - Apr 26 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.0631 Low Mar 20
• SUP 4: 1.0608 Low Mar 17

The EURUSD trend needle continues to point south. Last week’s extension lower reinforces bearish conditions and the 1.0713 objective has been breached, the Mar 24 low. This paves the way for a move towards 1.0653 next, a Fibonacci retracement point and the next key support. A firm resistance is seen at 1.0833, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this average is required to ease current bearish pressure.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 1.2680 High May 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.2547/2641 High May 16 / 11
• RES 2: 1.2493 High May 18
• RES 1: 1.2401/36 50- and 20-day EMA values
• PRICE: 1.2357 @ 05:59 BST May 30
• SUP 1: 1.2308 Low May 25
• SUP 2: 1.2275 Low Apr 3
• SUP 3: 1.2242 50.0% retracement of the Mar 8 - May 10 bull run
• SUP 4: 1.2213 Low Mar 27

GBPUSD bears remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. Price has recently cleared support at the 50-day EMA and breached 1.2345, the Apr 10 low. This paves the way for a move towards 1.2242 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 1.2436, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal a possible reversal.

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains Intact

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3
• RES 3: 0.8814 High May 4
• RES 2: 0.8752 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8712 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8664 @ 06:19 BST May 30
• SUP 1: 0.8661/49 Low May 11 / 76.4% of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 2: 0.8593 Low Dec 15 2022
• SUP 3: 0.8562 Low Dec 13 2022
• SUP 4: 0.8547 Low Dec 1 2022 and key support

The EURGBP short-term trend needle continues to point south and a clear break of 0.8661, the May 11 low, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Attention is on 0.8649, a Fibonacci retracement and last Wednesday’s low. A breach of this level would open 0.8593, the Dec 15 2022 low. Initial firm resistance is at 0.8712 the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA intersects at 0.8752 where a break would signal a reversal.

USDJPY TECHS: Approaching Channel Resistance

• RES 4: 142.25 High Nov 21 2022
• RES 3: 141.61 High Nov 23 2022
• RES 2: 141.24 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 140.81/92 Bull channel top from the Jan 16 low / High May 29
• PRICE: 140.63 @ 06:48 BST May 30
• SUP 1: g
• SUP 2: 138.23 Low May 24
• SUP 3: 137.58 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 137.43 Low May 19

USDJPY bullish conditions remain intact and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. Price has arrived at the top of the bull channel drawn from the Jan 16 low which intersects at 140.81. This represents a key resistance and a clear break of it would reinforce bullish conditions and open 141.61, the Nov 23 2022 high. For bears, a reversal lower would instead highlight a potential short-term top. Initial key support to watch is 137.58, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 152.81 1.50 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 3: 152.00 1.382 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 2: 151.61 High May 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 151.07 High May 29
• PRICE: 149.85 @ 08:06 BST May 30
• SUP 1: 149.02 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 147.32/146.64 13 50-day EMA / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 146.13 Low May 11 and a key support
• SUP 4: 145.67 High Mar 31

EURJPY maintains a short-term bullish tone. Last week’s move higher resulted in a breach of 150.32, 76.4% of the May 2 - 11 sell-off. The break of this level opens 151.61, the May 2 high and a bull trigger. The 50-day EMA, which intersects at 147.32, remains intact and is a key support. A clear break of this EMA is required to signal a reversal. Initial support lies at 149.02, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 0.6818 High May 10 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.6710 High May 16
• RES 2: 0.6624/72 20- and 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.6574 Low Apr 28
• PRICE: 0.6526@ 08:10 BST May 30
• SUP 1: 0.6491 Low May 29
• SUP 2: 0.6403 76.4% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 3: 0.6387 Low Nov 10 2022
• SUP 4: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022

AUDUSD is consolidating closer to its recent lows and remains bearish. Last week’s sell-off resulted in a break of 0.6565, the Mar 10 low, confirming a resumption of the bear cycle that started Feb 2 and highlights a range breakout. The focus is on the 0.6403 Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, a breach of 0.6818 is required to reinstate a bullish theme. Initial firm resistance is seen at 0.6672, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Key Short-Term Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.3805 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 1.3730 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - Apr 14 low
• RES 2: 1.3695 High Mar 28
• RES 1: 1.3668 High Apr 28 and key resistance
• PRICE: 1.3600 @ 08:15 BST May 30
• SUP 1: 1.3532 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3485.3404 Low May 23 / 16
• SUP 3: 1.3363/15 Low May 11 / 8
• SUP 4: 1.3302 Low Apr 14 and a key near-term support

USDCAD rallied last week, retaining the bullish underlying theme. The latest pullback is considered corrective. Sights are set on resistance at 1.3668, the Apr 28 high and a key level. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen the case for bulls and pave the way for a move towards 1.3695, the Apr 28 high. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 1.3485, the May 23 low. A break of this level would signal a potential short-term reversal.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Watching Resistance At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 137.29 High May 11
• RES 3: 136.38 High May 16
• RES 2: 135.44 High May 18
• RES 1: 134.62 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 134.30 @ 05:08 BST May 30
• SUP 1: 132.83 Low May 26
• SUP 2: 132.71 76.4%retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 132.37 Low Mar 10
• SUP 4: 131.07 Low Mar 9

Bund futures started the week on a firmer note, trading higher Monday. Despite these gains, the outlook remains bearish. Price last week pierced key support at 133.10, the Apr 19 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and open 132.71, a Fibonacci retracement ahead of 132.37, the Mar 10 low. Initial firm resistance is at 134.62, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to ease bearish pressure.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 119.020 High May 11
• RES 3: 118.610 High May 11
• RES 2: 117.880/118.240 High May 18 / 17
• RES 1: 117.661 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 117.160 @ 05:13 BST May 30
• SUP 1: 116.550 Low May 26
• SUP 2: 116.420 Low Apr 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 116.170 Low Mar 13
• SUP 4: 115.700 Low Mar 10

The short-term outlook in Bobl futures remains bearish despite Monday’s bounce. The recent extension lower has exposed 116.420, the Apr 19 low and bear trigger. A break would strengthen bearish conditions and signal scope for a move towards 116.170, the Mar 13 low. On the upside, a firm resistance is seen at 117.513, the 20-day EMA. A breach of this average would ease bearish pressure.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Pierces Key Support

• RES 4: 105.910 High May 16
• RES 3: 105.775 High May 17
• RES 2: 105.595 High May 22
• RES 1: 105.527 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 105.325 @ 05:35 BST May 30
• SUP 1: 105.360 Low May 29
• SUP 2: 105.030 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 104.953 76.4% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 104.695 Low Mar 10

A bearish cycle in Schatz futures remains in play and the contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle low yesterday, piercing support at 105.165. This reinforces bearish conditions and a clear breach of 105.165, would signal scope for a continuation lower towards the 105.00 handle. Initial firm resistance is seen at 105.527, the 20-day EMA. A break of this EMA would ease the current bearish threat.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Southbound

• RES 4: 98.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 97.78 High May 23
• RES 2: 96.62 High May 24
• RES 1: 96.14 High May 25
• PRICE: 94.78 @ Close May 29
• SUP 1: 94.21 Low May 26
• SUP 2: 94.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 93.45 1.618 projection of the Feb 2 - 28 - Mar 20 swing (cont)
• SUP 4: 92.66 Low Oct 14 2022 (cont)

Gilt futures remain in a bear mode position and last week’s extension lower reinforces current conditions. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a downtrend and recently, on the continuation chart, price has cleared a number of key support levels. The focus is on the 94.00 handle next. Initial resistance is seen at 96.14, the May 25 high. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Bounce Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 116.97 High Apr 6
• RES 3: 116.17 76.4% retracement of the Mar 24 - Apr 24 downleg
• RES 2: 115.48/89 High May 16 / 11
• RES 1: 114.65 High May 22
• PRICE: 114.17 @ Close May 29
• SUP 1: 112.60 Low May 26
• SUP 2: 111.88 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 3: 111.05 Low Mar 8
• SUP 4: 110.79 Low Mar 7

A bearish threat in BTP futures remains present, despite Monday’s strong bounce. The contract has recently traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Key support at 112.93, the Apr 24 low, has also been breached and a continuation lower would open 111.88, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. Key short-term resistance is at 114.65, the May 22 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Trading Above Last Week’s Low

• RES 4: 4510.50 0.618 proj of the Mar 20 - Apr 21 - May 4 price swing
• RES 3: 4457.50 0.5 proj of the Mar 20 - Apr 21 - May 4 price swing
• RES 2: 4448.00 High Jan 2008 (cont)
• RES 1: 4409.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• PRICE: 4324.00 @ 06:38 BST May 30
• SUP 1: 4252.00 Low May 25
• SUP 2: 4233.00 Low May 4 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 4175.00 Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: 4164.00 High Mar 22

Eurostoxx 50 futures managed to find support last week at 4252.00, the May 25 low. This means that for now, support around the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 4271.40, remains intact for now. A clear break of the average would expose 4233.00, May 4 low and a key short-term support. Clearance of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. On the upside the bull trigger is at 4409.50, the Nov 18 2021 high (cont) and a major resistance.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M3) Key Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 4327.50 High Aug 16 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4288.00 High Aug 19 2022
• RES 1: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and a medium-term bull trigger
• PRICE: 4126.00 @ 07:13 BST May 30
• SUP 1: 4159.93/4114.00 20-day EMA / Low May 24
• SUP 2: 4062.25 Low May 4 and key support
• SUP 3: 4052.50 Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: 4022.75 50.0% retracement of the Mar 13 - May 1 bull leg

S&P E-minis trend conditions remain bullish. Last week’s bounce from 4114.00, May 24 low, means that support around the 50-day EMA remains intact. The average intersects at 4129.2 and a clear break of it is required to signal a reversal. For now, the focus is on key resistance at 4244.00, the Feb 2 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend that started on Mar 13.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N3) Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Still Intact

• RES 4: $85.08 - High Apr 18
• RES 3: $85.08 - High Apr 18
• RES 2: $82.88 - High Apr 25
• RES 1: $78.35/80.53 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 28
• PRICE: $76.35 @ 06:52 BST May 30
• SUP 1: $73.49/71.28 - Low May 15 / 4
• SUP 2: $70.10 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 3: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $65.72 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)

Brent futures remain below last week’s high. The latest pullback means that resistance at the 50-day EMA which intersects at $78.35, remains intact. A clear break of the EMA is required to strengthen a short-term bullish theme and this would open $80.53, the Apr 28 high. On the downside, a breach of $73.49, the May 15 low, would be seen as a bearish development and set the scene for an extension towards $71.28.

WTI TECHS: (N3) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: $80.93 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $79.00 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $76.74 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $74.24/73 - 50-day EMA / High May 24
• PRICE: $72.16 @ 06:507 BST May 30
• SUP 1: $69.39/63.90 - Low May 15 / 4
• SUP 2: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)
• SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $57.63 - Low Apr 5 2021 (cont)

The latest pullback in WTI futures means that - for now - the contract has failed to overcome resistance at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $74.24. Recent short-term gains are considered corrective, however, a clear breach of the 50-day EMA would highlight a stronger bullish theme and expose $76.74, the Apr 28 high. Support to watch lies at $69.39, the May 15 low. A break would be bearish.

GOLD TECHS: Has Breached Trendline Support

• RES 4: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $2022.6/2063.0 - High May 12 / 4 and key resistance
• RES 2: $1985.3 - High May 24
• RES 1: $1971.7. 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1932.7 07:15 BST May 30
• SUP 1: $1918.3 - Low Mar 17
• SUP 2: $1903.5 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle
• SUP 3: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle

The bear cycle in Gold remains intact and the yellow metal is trading lower today. Price is through a key level at $1938.0, trendline support drawn from Nov 3 2022. A clear breach of this trendline would reinforce bearish conditions and pave the way for a move towards $1903.5, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is $1985.3, the May 24 high. A break of this level is required to signal a short-term reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $26.135 - High May 5
• RES 1: $23.920/24.492 - 20-day EMA / Apr 25 low
• PRICE: $23.052 @ 08:19 BST May 30
• SUP 1: $22.682 - Low May 26
• SUP 2: $22.284 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally
• SUP 3: $22.157 - Low Mar 21
• SUP 4: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally

The Silver trend condition remains bearish. The May 11 sell-off confirmed a double top reversal pattern following the break of $24.492, the Apr 25 low. The subsequent bearish extension has reinforced the importance of this reversal signal. Sights are set on $22.284 next, a Fibonacci retracement level. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at $24.492, the double top mid-point.