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MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bearish Gilt Theme Persists

Price Signal Summary – Bearish Gilt Theme Persists

  • A bearish theme in the E-mini S&P contract remains intact and this week’s move lower has reinforced current conditions. The contract has cleared the 50-day EMA and breached channel support drawn from the Mar 13 low - the base is at 4467.06 today. A bearish threat in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains present and this week’s sell-off reinforces current conditions. The contract has breached support at 4276.00, the Aug 8 and 15 low.
  • The uptrend in USDJPY remains intact and the pair continues to climb. Recent gains resulted in the break of 145.07, Jun 30 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish and Wednesday’s move lower reinforces the current bearish theme. The pair has this week breached support at 0.6458, the May 31 low and bear trigger. The trend needle in EURUSD continues to point south and the pair is trading lower today, extending the current bear cycle. Support at 1.0912, the Aug 3 low, has recently been cleared.
  • Gold remains bearish and the yellow metal is trading lower. Price has pierced key support at $1893.1, the Jun 29 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and signal scope for $1885.8, the Mar 15 low ahead of $1871.6 The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Initial firm support lies at $78.69, the Aug 3 low. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper short-term retracement.
  • Bund futures maintain a bearish tone and the contract traded sharply lower Tuesday, before finding some support. 131.12, the Aug 4 low and 130.60, the Jul 10 low, have been cleared. A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact. The contract has started off today’s session on a weaker note, clearing support 92.09, the Jul 7 low. This represents an important break and confirms a resumption of the medium-term downtrend.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Heads South

  • RES 4: 1.1229 High Jul 20
  • RES 3: 1.1150 High Jul 27
  • RES 2: 1.1065 High Aug 10
  • RES 1: 1.0974 20-day EMA
  • PRICE: 1.0868 @ 06:14 BST Aug 17
  • SUP 1: 1.0862 Intraday low
  • SUP 2: 1.0834 Low Jul 6 and a key support
  • SUP 3: 1.0804 Low Jun 151
  • SUP 4: 1.0756 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 15 low

The trend needle in EURUSD continues to point south and the pair is trading lower today, extending the current bear cycle. Support at 1.0912, the Aug 3 low, has recently been cleared. This confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle that started Jul 18 and opens 1.0834 next, the Jul 6 low and a key level. Price is also trading lower inside a bull channel drawn from Mar 15. The base lies at 1.0756. Key short-term resistance is 1.1065, the Aug 10 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: In A Range But Outlook Remains Bearish

  • RES 4: 1.3045 High Jul 19
  • RES 3: 1.2996 High Jul 27 and a key resistance
  • RES 2: 1.2887 High Jul 28
  • RES 1: 1.2762/2819 20-day EMA / High Aug 10 and a reversal trigger
  • PRICE: 1.2725@ 06:20 BST Aug 17
  • SUP 1: 1.2617 Low Aug 14
  • SUP 2: 1.2591 Low Jun 29 and a key support
  • SUP 3: 1.2480 1.50 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing
  • SUP 4: 1.2439 1.618 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing

GBPUSD is trading in a range for now. The trend condition remains bearish and the Aug 14 low of 1.2621 marks the short-term bear trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and pave the way for a test of the next objective at 1.2591, the Jun 29 low and the next important support. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.2819, the Aug 19 high. A break would signal a possible reversal.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Extension

  • RES 4: 0.8719 High May 23 and a congestion high
  • RES 3: 0.8701 High Jul 19
  • RES 2: 0.8663/8669 100-dma / High Aug 11
  • RES 1: 0.8610 50-day EMA
  • PRICE: 0.8542 @ 06:40 BST Aug 17
  • SUP 1: 0.8523 1.0% 10-dma envelope
  • SUP 2: 0.8504 Low Jul 11 and key support
  • SUP 3: 0.8471 Low Aug 29 2022
  • SUP 4: 0.8424 Low Aug 25 2022

EURGBP has failed to hold on to its recent highs and traded lower again Wednesday to extend the reversal from 0.8669, the Aug 11 high. The cross is testing support 0.8544, the Jul 27 low and a key short-term level. A clear break would strengthen current bearish conditions and signal scope for weakness towards 0.8504, the Jul 11 low and a bear trigger. The key short-term hurdle for bulls is 0.8669.

USDJPY TECHS: Fresh Cycle High

  • RES 4: 148.40 High Nov 4 2022
  • RES 3: 147.49 2.00 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
  • RES 2: 146.93 High Nov 8 2022
  • RES 1: 146.56 Intraday high
  • PRICE: 146.36 @ 06:54 BST Aug 17
  • SUP 1: 145.11/143.89 Low Aug 15 / High Aug 3
  • SUP 2: 143.35 20- and EMA
  • SUP 3: 141.74 50-day EMA
  • SUP 4: 138.07 Low Jul 28

The uptrend in USDJPY remains intact and the pair continues to climb. Recent gains resulted in the break of 145.07, Jun 30 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode condition, highlighting current positive sentiment. The focus is on 147.49 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch is 143.35, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Bulls Remains In The Driver’s Seat

  • RES 4: 160.66 2.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
  • RES 3: 160.00 Psychological handle
  • RES 2: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
  • RES 1: 159.36 Intraday high
  • PRICE: 159.06 @ 06:58 BST Aug 17
  • SUP 1: 157.30/156.35 20-day EMA / Low Aug 8
  • SUP 2: 155.42 50-day EMA
  • SUP 3: 151.42 Low Jul 28 and key support
  • SUP 4: 150.16 38.2% retracement of the Jan 3 - Jul 21 bull cycle

EURJPY continues to trade at its recent highs. Key resistance at 158.05, the Jul 21 high, has recently been breached. This confirms a continuation of the medium-term uptrend and opens 159.92, a Fibonacci projection ahead of the 160.00 psychological handle. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition, reflecting a rising trend. Initial firm support is 157.30, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Fresh Trend Low

  • RES 4: 0.6723 High Aug 1
  • RES 3: 0.6643 50-day EMA
  • RES 2: 0.6577 20-day EMA
  • RES 1: 0.6480 High Aug 16
  • PRICE: 0.6402 @ 07:58 BST Aug 17
  • SUP 1: 0.6365 Intraday low
  • SUP 2: 0.6285 Low Nov 4 2022
  • SUP 3: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022 and a key support
  • SUP 4: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing

The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish and Wednesday’s move lower reinforces the current bearish theme. The pair has this week breached support at 0.6458, the May 31 low and bear trigger. This strengthens the downtrend and paves the way for weakness towards 0.6285 next, the Nov 4 2022 low. On the upside, firm resistance is seen at the 20-day EMA - at 0.6577. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Price Sequence

  • RES 4: 1.3837 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 2022 high
  • RES 3: 1.3655 High May 26 and a key resistance
  • RES 2: 1.3585 High Jun 1
  • RES 1: 1.3553 Intraday high
  • PRICE: 1.3522 @ 08:06 BST Aug 17
  • SUP 1: 1.3440 Low Aug 15
  • SUP 2: 1.3368 20-day EMA
  • SUP 3: 1.3320 Low Aug 4
  • SUP 4: 1.3266 Low Aug 2

USDCAD short-term conditions remain bullish and the pair has traded higher today. This reinforces current bullish conditions and maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The pair has breached 1.3523, 76.4% of the May 26 - Jul 14 downleg. This signals scope for a climb towards 1.3655 key resistance, the May 26 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at 1.3368, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Trend Needle Points South

  • RES 4: 134.01 High Jul 24
  • RES 3: 133.45 High Aug 8
  • RES 2: 132.20 20-day EMA
  • RES 1: 131.29/67 High Aug 16 / 14
  • PRICE: 130.65 @ 05:44 BST Aug 17
  • SUP 1: 130.14 Low Aug 15
  • SUP 2: 130.00 Psychological round number
  • SUP 3: 129.69 1.00 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing
  • SUP 4: 128.80 1.236 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing

Bund futures maintain a bearish tone and the contract traded sharply lower Tuesday, before finding some support. 131.12, the Aug 4 low and 130.60, the Jul 10 low, have been cleared. This strengthens the current bearish theme and marks a resumption of the long-term downtrend. Attention Is on Psychological 130.00 handle next. A break would open 129.69, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is seen at 131.26.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Bearish Theme Remains Intact

  • RES 4: 116.600 High Jul 19 and the bull trigger
  • RES 3: 115.868/116.340 50-day EMA / High Aug 8
  • RES 2: 115.602 20-day EMA
  • RES 1: 115.290 High Aug 16
  • PRICE: 115.030 @ 05:49 BST Aug 17
  • SUP 1: 114.710 Low Aug 16
  • SUP 2: 114.550 Low Jul 7 and a key support
  • SUP 3: 114.180 Low Mar 7 (cont)
  • SUP 4: 114.130 Low Mar 6 (cont) and a major support

Bobl futures remain in a bearish mode and Tuesday's sell-off reinforces this theme. Support at 115.230, the Jul 13 and Aug 4 low, has been cleared and this signals scope for weakness towards 114.550, the Jul 7 low and the next key support. Clearance of this level would represent an important technical break. On the upside, firm resistance is seen at 115.602, the 20-day EMA. Initial resistance is at 115.290 yesterday’s high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Remains Vulnerable

  • RES 4: 105.325 High Jun 14
  • RES 3: 105.295 High Aug 8 and a key resistance
  • RES 2: 105.092/165 50-day EMA / High Aug 10
  • RES 1: 105.010 20-day EMA
  • PRICE: 104.890 @ 05:50 BST Aug 17
  • SUP 1: 104.760 Low AUg 15
  • SUP 2: 104.741 76.4% retracement of the Jul 6 - Aug 8 bull leg
  • SUP 3: 104.620/104.570 Low Jul 11 / 6 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 4: 104.470 2.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Schatz futures traded lower Tuesday, extending the current bear cycle. Support at 104.805, the Jul 17 low, has been cleared. This strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for an extension lower. The focus is on 104.741, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would pave the way for weakness towards 104.570, the Jul 6 low and the next key support. Initial firm resistance is seen at 105.010, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Clears Key Support

  • RES 4: 96.19/81 High Jul 31 / 27
  • RES 3: 95.82 High Aug 10 and key short-term resistance
  • RES 2: 94.51 20-day EMA
  • RES 1: 93.05/93.70 High Aug 16 / Low Aug 4
  • PRICE: 91.94 @ 08:13 BST Aug 17
  • SUP 1: 91.61 Intraday low
  • SUP 2: 90.70 1.236 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 10 price swing
  • SUP 3: 90.38 Low Oct 12 2022 (cont) and a major support
  • SUP 4: 90.10 1.382 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 10 price swing

A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact. The contract has started off today’s session on a weaker note, clearing support 92.09, the Jul 7 low. This represents an important break and confirms a resumption of the medium-term downtrend. Scope is seen for a move towards the major support at 90.38, the Oct 12, 2022 low on the continuation chart. On the upside, initial resistance is at 93.05, yesterday’s high.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Approaching Key Support

  • RES 4: 117.60 High Jun 26 and the bull trigger
  • RES 3: 116.86/117.48 High Jul 24 / 19
  • RES 2: 115.10/116.02 50-day EMA High Aug 9
  • RES 1: 114.21 High Aug 15
  • PRICE: 113.80 @ Close Aug 16
  • SUP 1: 113.04 Low Aug 15
  • SUP 2: 112.95 Low Jul 11 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 112.48 Low May 29
  • SUP 4: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support

A bearish condition in BTP futures remains intact following the reversal that started Jul 19. Tuesday’s sell-off, reinforces current bearish conditions. The move lower exposes the next key support at 112.95, the Jul 11 low, A break of this level would strengthen the current bearish theme and open 112.48, the May 29 low. On the upside, resistance to watch is at 115.10, the 50-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Clears Support

  • RES 4: 4539.20 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jul 3 - 7 price swing (cont)
  • RES 3: 4515.00 High Nov / Dec 2007 (cont)
  • RES 2: 4513.00 High Jul 31 and the bull trigger
  • RES 1: 4357.90/4420.00 50-day EMA / High Aug 10
  • PRICE: 4270.00 @ 06:11 BST Aug 17
  • SUP 1: 4253.00 Intraday low
  • SUP 2: 4220.00 Low Jul 7 and a reversal trigger
  • SUP 3: 4177.40 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull leg
  • SUP 4: 4122.00 Low Mar 28

A bearish threat in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains present and this week’s sell-off reinforces current conditions. The contract has breached support at 4276.00, the Aug 8 and 15 low. The break of this level strengthens a bearish threat and exposes 4220.00, the Jul 7 low. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 4420.00, the Aug 10 high. Initial resistance is 4357.9, the 50-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Bearish Price Action

  • RES 4: 4634.50 High Jul 27 and the bull trigger
  • RES 3: 4593.50/4634.50 High Aug 2 / Jul 27
  • RES 2: 4560.75 High Aug 4
  • RES 1: 4506.36 20-day EMA
  • PRICE: 4419.25 @ 07:14 BST Aug 17
  • SUP 1: 4409.50 Intraday low
  • SUP 2: 4400.00 Round number support
  • SUP 3: 4368.50 Low Jun 26
  • SUP 4: 4344.28 38.2% retracement of the Mar 13 - Jul 27 bull cycle

A bearish theme in the E-mini S&P contract remains intact and this week’s move lower has reinforced current conditions. The contract has cleared the 50-day EMA and breached channel support drawn from the Mar 13 low - the base is at 4467.06 today. The clear breakout signals scope for a continuation lower and opens the 4400.00 next. Initial firm resistance to watch is at the 20-day EMA - at 4506.36.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V3) Corrective Pullback Extends

  • RES 4: $92.10 - 1.50 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 18 price swing
  • RES 3: $90.63 - High Nov 11 2022 (cont)
  • RES 2: $90.00 - Psychological round number
  • RES 1: $88.10 - High Aug 10
  • PRICE: $83.34 @ 06:56 BST Aug 17
  • SUP 1: $82.36/81.15 - Low Aug 3 / 50-day EMA
  • SUP 2: $78.10 - Low Jul 18 and key support
  • SUP 3: $74.78 - Low Jul 6
  • SUP 4: $72.04 - Low Jun 28

Brent futures traded lower again yesterday and the contract remains at its recent lows. The trend outlook is bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The move down is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position reflecting current market sentiment. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on the psychological $90.00 handle. First key support lies at $82.36, the Aug 3 low.

WTI TECHS: (U3) Watching Support

  • RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
  • RES 3: $87.43 - 1.382 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 17 price swing
  • RES 2: $85.94 - High Aug 23 2022
  • RES 1: $84.89 - High Aug 10
  • PRICE: $79.19 @ 07:00 BST Aug 17
  • SUP 1: $78.69/77.26 - Aug 3 low / 50-day EMA
  • SUP 2: $73.78 Low Jul 17
  • SUP 3: $69.82 - Low Jul 3
  • SUP 4: $66.98 - Low Jun 12 and key support

The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Initial firm support lies at $78.69, the Aug 3 low. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper short-term retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the next objective at $87.43, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in bull-mode condition highlighting an uptrend.

GOLD TECHS: Pierces Key Support

  • RES 4: $2022.9 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Jun 29 bear leg
  • RES 3: $1998.1 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Jun 29 bear leg
  • RES 2: $1972.4/1987.5 - High Jul 31 / High Jul 20 and the bull trigger
  • RES 1: $1927.7/39.6 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
  • PRICE: $1905.5 @ 07:17 BST Aug 15
  • SUP 1: $1889.7 - Intraday low
  • SUP 2: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15
  • SUP 3: $1871.6 - Low Mar 13
  • SUP 4: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull leg

Gold remains bearish and the yellow metal is trading lower. Price has pierced key support at $1893.1, the Jun 29 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and signal scope for $1885.8, the Mar 15 low ahead of $1871.6, the Mar 13 low. Moving average studies remain in bear mode condition, highlighting current sentiment. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is $1939.6, the 50-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

  • RES 4: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022
  • RES 3: $26.135 - High May 5 and bull trigger
  • RES 2: $25.920 - High May 10
  • RES 1: $23.586/25.267 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 20
  • PRICE: $22.630 @ 08:09 BST Aug 17
  • SUP 1: $22.227 - Low Jul 6
  • SUP 2: $22.111 - Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger
  • SUP 3: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 bull leg
  • SUP 4: $20.591 - Low Mar 13

A bearish theme in Silver remains intact following last week’s extension lower and this week’s fresh cycle low. The move lower signals scope for $22.111, the Jun 23 low and a key support. A break of this level would strengthen the current bearish theme. Key resistance is at $25.267, the Jul 20 high. Initial resistance to watch is $23.586, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level would signal a possible reversal.

MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com

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