MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bearish Pressure Resumes

Price Signal Summary - Bearish Pressure Resumes

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis have started this week on a softer note as bearish pressure resumes. Today's key technical development has been the break below the 50-day EMA at 4412.88. This average is an important support. EUROSTOXX 50 futures have started the week on a soft. The contract has probed support at 4060.50, Aug 19 low strengthening a S/T bearish cycle.
• In FX, EURUSD remains soft and is trading lower today, confirming a resumption of bearish pressure. The pair last week cleared 1.1770, Sep 13 low and 1.1758, 61.8% of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally. GBPUSD weakened Friday and has started this week's session on a soft note. The pair has traded below an important short-term support at 1.3727, Sep 8 low, signalling scope for an extension lower. The USD Index (DXY) has established a short-term support at 92.32, Sep 14 low. Technical conditions suggest scope for gains near-term.
• On the commodity front, Gold traded sharply lower on Sep 16. The move resulted in a break of support at $1774.5, Aug 19 low and a test of $1745.4, 61.8% retracement of the Aug 9 - Sep 3 rally. The retracement remains under pressure. WTI futures maintain a bullish outlook following last week's gains. The climb resulted in a break of $71.30, the bear channel top drawn off the Jul 6 high. The move higher strengthens the current bullish theme and signals scope for further short-term gains.
• In FI, Bund futures continued their slide Friday. A bearish theme remains intact and follows the recent move through 172.00. The break lower last week confirmed a resumption of the downtrend from Aug 5 and paves the way for a deeper retracement. Gilt futures traded sharply lower again Friday confirming a resumption of the current bear cycle.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Approaching Key Support

• RES 4: 1.1927 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.1909 High Jul 30 / Sep 03 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.1846 High Sep 14
• RES 1: 1.1798 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.1714@ 06:06 BST Sep 20
• SUP 1: 1.1693 Low Aug 23
• SUP 2: 1.1664 Low Aug 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1621 1.00 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1603 Low Nov 4, 2020

EURUSD remains soft and is trading lower today, confirming a resumption of bearish pressure. The pair last week cleared 1.1770, Sep 13 low and 1.1758, 61.8% of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally. Today's weakness has resulted in a breach of 1.1722, the 76.4 retracement. This opens the key support at 1.1664, Aug 20 low and an important bear trigger. A break would strengthen a M/T bearish case. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 1.1846, Sep 14 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Key Short-Term Support Cleared

• RES 4: 1.3983/90 High Jul 30 / 61.8% of the Jun 1 - Jul 20 sell-off
• RES 3: 1.3958 High Aug 4
• RES 2: 1.3913 High Sep 14 and the intraday bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3799 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3707 @ 06:15 BST Sep 20
• SUP 1: 1.3680 Low Aug 27
• SUP 2: 1.3602 Low Aug 20
• SUP 3: 1.3572 Low Jul 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.3520 Low Jan 18

GBPUSD weakened Friday and has started this week's session on a soft note. The pair has traded below an important short-term support at 1.3727, Sep 8 low, signalling scope for an extension lower. The sell-off has opened 1.3680, Aug 27 low and a deeper retracement would expose the important 1.3602/3572 support zone. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 1.3799, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Consolidating

• RES 4: 0.8670 High Jul 20 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8659 High Jul 21
• RES 2: 0.8614/18 High Sep 7 / 76.4% of the Jul 20 - Aug 10 sell-off
• RES 1: 0.8563 High Sep 15
• PRICE: 0.8546 @ 06:21 BST Sep 20
• SUP 1: 0.8502/01 76.4% of the Aug 10 - Sep 7 rally / Low Sep 16
• SUP 2: 0.8484 Low Aug 16
• SUP 3: 0.8466 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8450 Low Aug 10 and the bear trigger

EURGBP is consolidating but conditions remain bearish. A key short-term support at 0.8543, Aug 24 low was cleared on Sep 9 and the cross probed 0.8506 last week, Aug 19 low. A continuation lower would open 0.8484, Aug 16 low ahead of 0.8450, Aug 10 low and the bear trigger. A break of 0.8450 would confirm a resumption of the primary downtrend. The key short-term resistance is at 0.8614, Sep 7 high. Initial resistance is at 0.8563.

USDJPY TECHS: Support Still Intact

• RES 4: 110.82 High Jul 7
• RES 3: 110.80 High Aug 11 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 110.45/46 High Sep 8 / High Aug 13
• RES 1: 110.16 High Sep 13 / 14
• PRICE: 109.91 @ 06:23 BST Sep 20
• SUP 1: 109.11 Low Aug 16 / Sep 15
• SUP 2: 108.72 Low Aug 04 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 108.56 Low May 25
• SUP 4: 108.47 76.4% of the Apr 23 - Jul 2 rally

USDJPY traded higher Friday, but remains fragile after a recent sell-off. Support at 109.11, Aug 16 / Sep 15 low needs to give way though to reinforce a bearish theme. A breach of this level would expose 108.72, Aug 4 low. Clearance of 108.72l would open 108.47, a Fibonacci retracement and below. For bulls, the level to breaks remains 110.80, Aug 11 high. Initial firm resistance is at 110.45/46.

EURJPY TECHS: Needle Points South

• RES 4: 131.05/09 1.0% 10-dma envelope / High Jul 13
• RES 3: 130.75 High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 130.20 High Sep 14 high
• RES 1: 129.67 High Sep 17
• PRICE: 128.76 @ 06:27 BST Sep 20
• SUP 1: 128.60 Low Aug 24 and 76.4% of the Aug 19 - Sep 3 rally
• SUP 2: 128.16 Low Aug 23
• SUP 3: 127.94 Low Aug 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 127.88 50.0% retracement of the Oct '20 - Jan rally

EURJPY traded lower last week to maintain a softer tone as the cross extends the sell-off that started Sep 3. 129.01, 61.8% retracement of the Aug 19 - Sep 3 rally has been breached. The focus is on 128.60, the 76.4% retracement and recent weakness signals scope for a test of key support at 127.94, Aug 19 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 130.20, Sep 14 high. Key resistance is at 130.75, Sep 3 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 0.7499/7503 50.0% of the May - Aug sell-off / High Jul 13
• RES 3: 0.7478 High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.7410 High Sep 10
• RES 1: 0.7333 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.7240 @ 06:36 BST Sep 20
• SUP 1: 0.7222 Low Aug 27
• SUP 2: 0.7194 76.4% retracement of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally
• SUP 3: 0.7106 Low Aug 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.7053 38.2% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb uptrend

AUDUSD has started the week on a soft note as the pair extends the pullback from 0.7478, Sep 3 high. The 20-day EMA and a number of retracement levels were breached last week. The focus is on 0.7194, 76.4% of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally. A break of this level would expose the key support at 0.7106. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 0.7333, the 20-day EMA ahead of 0.7410, the Sep 10 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Heads North

• RES 4: 1.2976 1.00 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 19 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2957 High Dec 21, 2020
• RES 2: 1.2949 High Aug 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2834 High Aug 23
• PRICE: 1.2787 @ 06:47 BST Sep 20
• SUP 1: 1.2646 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2583 Low Sep 10
• SUP 3: 1.2494 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.2422 Jul 30 low and a key support

USDCAD maintains a firmer tone and continues to display a stronger bullish short-term condition following the recent recovery from 1.2494, Sep 3 low. Friday's gains reinforce this theme and today, initial resistance at 1.2762, Sep 8 high has been breached. This opens 1.2834, Aug 23 high and the 1.2949 bull trigger, Aug 20 high. MA conditions are in bull mode highlighting a bullish theme. For bears, clearance of 1.2494 would alter the picture.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z1) Bearish Price Sequence Intact

• RES 4: 172.76 High Sep 2 and 3
• RES 3: 172.48 High Sep 9
• RES 2: 172.12 High Sep 14 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 171.53 High Sep 16
• PRICE: 171.17 @ 05:02 BST Sep 20
• SUP 1: 170.81 Low Sep 17
• SUP 2: 170.52 3.00 proj of the Aug 5 - 11 - 17 price swing
• SUP 3: 170.22 3.236 proj of the Aug 5 - 11 - 17 price swing
• SUP 4: 170.00 Round number support

Bund futures continued their slide Friday. A bearish theme remains intact and follows the recent move through 172.00. The break lower last week confirmed a resumption of the downtrend from Aug 5 and paves the way for a deeper retracement. Attention is on 170.52 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 172.12, Sep 14 high. A break would ease the current bearish sentiment.

BOBL TECHS: (Z1) Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 136.030 High Aug 30 , 31
• RES 4: 135.870 High Sep 3
• RES 3: 135.660 High Sep 7 and 9 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 135.550 High Sep 14
• PRICE: 135.300 @ 05:05 BST Sep 20
• SUP 1: 135.200 Low Sep 17
• SUP 2: 135.136 2.236 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 135.077 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 135.030 2.50 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing

Bobl futures outlook remains bearish and the contract traded lower again Friday. This once again confirms an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs, signalling scope for a continuation lower. The focus is on 135.136 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 135.550, Sep 14 high where a break is required to ease current bearish pressure.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z1) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 112.350 High Aug 24
• RES 3: 112.340 High Aug 31
• RES 2: 112.305 High Sep 3
• RES 1: 112.270 High Sep 9 and 10 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 112.255 @ 05:08 BST Sep 20
• SUP 1: 112.215 Low Sep 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 112.206 2.236 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 112.200 Round number support
• SUP 4: 112.197 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing

Schatz futures are firmer however the near-term outlook remains bearish and gains are considered corrective. The recent move lower to 112.215, on Sep 9 confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the bear cycle that started Aug 5. Further downside is likely with the focus on 112.206 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is unchanged at 112.270, Sep 9 and 10 high. The bear trigger is 112.215.

GILT TECHS: (Z1) Sharp Slide Extends

• RES 4: 128.77 High Sep 3
• RES 3: 128.42 High Sep 7
• RES 2: 128.18 High Sep 10, 14 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 127.68 High sep 16
• PRICE: 126.94 @ Close Sep 17
• SUP 1: 126.83 2.00 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• SUP 2: 126.70 Low Jun 3 and a key support
• SUP 3: 126.57 2.236 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 126.41 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing

Gilt futures traded sharply lower again Friday confirming a resumption of the current bear cycle. The outlook remains bearish with a price sequence of lower lows and lower highs intact. The focus is on 126.83 next, a Fibonacci projection ahead of 126.70, the Jun 3 low (cont) and a key support Key near-term resistance has been defined at 128.18, Sep 10 and 14 high. A break of this level is required to ease the current bearish pressure.

BTP TECHS: (Z1) Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 155.71 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger (cont)
• RES 3: 155.68 High Aug 25
• RES 2: 155.14 High Aug 31
• RES 1: 154.63 High Sep 14 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 153.66 @ Close Sep 17
• SUP 1: 153.36 Low Sep 17
• SUP 2: 152.94/84 Low Sep 9 / 50.0% of Jun 25 - Aug 5 rally (cont)
• SUP 3: 152.66 Low Jul 15 (cont)
• SUP 4: 152.16 61.8% retracement of the Jun 25 - Aug 5 rally (cont)

BTP futures trend conditions remain bearish and recent gains are considered corrective. A bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that highlights a bearish theme remains intact. The focus is on 152.84 next, a Fibonacci retracement and below. On the upside, a resumption of gains would open resistance at 155.14, Aug 31 high. The bear trigger is unchanged at 152.94, Sep 7 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (Z1) Trades Through Support

• RES 4: 4334.22 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 4223.00 High Sep and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 4184.00 High Sep 17
• RES 1: 4112.50 Low Sep 15
• PRICE: 4057.00 @ 05:40 BST Sep 20
• SUP 1: 4051.00 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 4032.00 Low Jul 27
• SUP 3: 4012.30 61.8% retracement of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 rally
• SUP 4: 3962.50 76.4% retracement of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 rally

EUROSTOXX 50 futures have started the week on a soft. The contract has probed support at 4060.50, Aug 19 low strengthening a S/T bearish cycle. This follows Friday's move below 4104.50, Sep 9 low that confirmed a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs on the daily chart. Scope is seen for weakness towards 4032.00, Jul 27 low and 4012.30, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is seen at 4112.50, the Sep 15 low.

E-MINI S&P (Z1): Trades Below Its 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4600.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 4591.25 1.000 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - 19 price swing
• RES 2: 4519.75/39.50 High Sep 9 / High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4478.50 High Sep 16 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 4388.75@ 05:55 BST Sep 20
• SUP 1: 4362.75 Low Aug 20
• SUP 2: 4339.75 Low Aug 19 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4299.75 Low Jul 21
• SUP 4: 4243.50 Low Jul 20

S&P E-minis have started this week on a softer note as bearish pressure resumes. Today's key technical development has been the break below the 50-day EMA at 4412.88. This average is an important support. A decisive break would suggest scope for a deeper pullback near-term. Continued weakness would open 4339.75, the Aug 19 low. On the upside, a climb above 4478.50, Sep 16 high is required to ease current bearish pressure.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X1) Bullish Conditions Intact

• RES 4: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $78.13 - 0.764 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 2: $76.74 - 0.618 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 1: $76.13 - High Sep 15
• PRICE: $74.94 @ 07:00 BST Sep 20
• SUP 1: $72.75/70.88 - 20-day EMA / Low Sep 8
• SUP 2: $69.77/$68.13 - Low Aug 26 / Low Aug 24
• SUP 3: $64.20 - Low Aug 23
• SUP 4: $63.54 - Low May 21 and a key support

Brent futures breached the Jul 6 high of $75.87 last week. This confirmed a resumption of the broader uptrend and strengthens a bullish case following the recent bear channel breakout. The channel was drawn off the Jul 6 high. Conditions remain bullish and the focus is on $76.74 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at $70.88, Sep 8 low. Initial support is at $72.75, the 20-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (V1) Bullish Following Recent Bear Channel Breakout

• RES 4: $76.43 - 1.00 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 2 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 3: $75.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $74.77 - High Jul 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $73.14/52 - High Sep 15 / High Jul 30
• PRICE: $71.44@ 07:13 BST Sep 20
• SUP 1: $69.73 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $67.56 - Low Sep 9 and key support
• SUP 3: $65.41 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $61.74 - Low Aug 23 and the bear trigger

WTI futures maintain a bullish outlook following last week's gains. The climb resulted in a break of $71.30, the bear channel top drawn off the Jul 6 high. The move higher strengthens the current bullish theme and signals scope for further short-term gains. The focus is on $73.52 next, Jul 30 high ahead of the primary resistance and bull trigger at $74.77, Jul 7 high. Key support has been defined at $67.56, Sep 9 low.

GOLD TECHS: Bears Hold On

• RES 4: $1844.9 - Low Jun 14
• RES 3: $1834.1 - High Jul 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $1808.7 - High Sep 14
• RES 1: $1781.8 - Low Sep 14
• PRICE: $1751.0 @ 07:14 BST Sep 20
• SUP 1: $1742.25 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $1724.5 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 9 - Sep 3 rally
• SUP 3: $1690.6 - Low Aug 08 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1678.00 Low Mar 31

Gold traded sharply lower on Sep 16. The move resulted in a break of support at $1774.5, Aug 19 low and a test of $1745.4, 61.8% retracement of the Aug 9 - Sep 3 rally. The retracement remains under pressure. Further out, a deeper decline would open the key support at $1690.6, Aug 9 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at $1808.7, Sep 14 high. A break of this level is required to ease bearish pressure.

SILVER TECHS: Resumes Its Downtrend

• RES 4: $25.206 - High Jun 8
• RES 3: $24.867 - High Sep 3 and the reversal trigger
• RES 2: $24.411 - High Sep 8
• RES 1: $23.765 - 20-Day EMA
• PRICE: $22.434 @ 07:28 BST Sep 20
• SUP 1: $22.039 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $21.899 - Low Nov 30, 2020
• SUP 3: $21.677 - Low Sep 24
• SUP 4: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb '21 rally

Silver remains bearish following last week's sharp losses that resulted in a breach of support at $22.626, Aug 9 low. A bearish theme was also recently reinforced following the failure to clear the 50-day EMA that continues to provide resistance. With $22.626 cleared, the focus is on $21.899 next, the Nov 30, 2020 low. Key trend resistance has been defined at $24.867, Sep 3 high.