MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bearish Shooting Star in AUD

Price Signal Summary – Bearish Shooting Star in AUD/USD

• E-Mini S&P futures are weaker and remain under pressure. The contract traded above the 20-day EMA at 4368.94 last Thursday. The failure to hold above this EMA however is a bearish development. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain soft. The contract traded sharply lower again Monday to confirm a resumption of this year’s downtrend. Price has moved through the 50.0% retracement of the bull cycle between Mar ‘20 - Nov ‘21 and yesterday breached the 61.8% handle, at 3468.60.
• The downtrend in EURUSD remains intact. The pair traded lower again Monday, delivering a fresh cycle low of 1.0806. The break lower confirms a resumption of the underlying downtrend with moving averages also pointing south. USDJPY has recovered from Friday’s low. The USD remains inside its range but importantly for bulls, continues to trade above the Feb 24 low of 114.41 and more importantly above its key support at 114.16, Feb 2 low. While the latter support holds, the trend condition remains bullish. AUDUSD initially strengthened Monday, before slipping into the close. Yesterday’s price pattern is a bearish shooting star candle, highlighting a short-term top. Short-term weakness is likely a correction though and opens support at 0.7236/08, the 20- and 50-day EMA values.
• Gold is trading higher once again this morning, reinforcing bullish conditions. The metal has cleared the Feb 24 high of $1974.3. This confirms a resumption of the underlying uptrend and also highlights the fact that prices have breached the top of the recent bull channel. WTI futures remain in a clear uptrend despite the pullback from yesterday’s session high. Fresh cycle highs reinforce the current trend direction and mark an extension of the underlying bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• Bund futures remain in a short-term uptrend and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high Monday before pulling back. The break higher confirms a resumption of the underlying uptrend and maintains a bullish price sequence. Gilt futures remain in a short-term uptrend. Futures rallied on Mar 1 resulting in a breakout of its recent range. The move higher highlights a S/T bullish theme.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 1.1190 20-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.1121 Low Jan 28 and a recent breakout level
• RES 2: 1.1068 High Mar 4
• RES 1: 1.0961 High Mar 7
• PRICE: 1.0860 @ 06:00 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: 1.0806 Low Mar 7
• SUP 2: 1.0767 Low May 7 2020
• SUP 3: 1.0727 Low Apr 24, 2020
• SUP 4: 1.0654 2.50 proj of the Jan - Mar - May 2021 price swing

The downtrend in EURUSD remains intact. The pair traded lower again Monday, delivering a fresh cycle low of 1.0806. The break lower confirms a resumption of the underlying downtrend with moving averages also pointing south and marks an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 1.0767, a low dating back to May 2020. Monday’s intraday high of 1.0961 marks initial resistance.

GBPUSD TECHS: Soft Following Monday’s Break Lower

• RES 4: 1.3486 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.3430 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.3358 Low Jan 27
• RES 1: 1.3259 High Mar 7
• PRICE: 1.3115 @ 06:06 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: 1.3102 Low Mar 7
• SUP 2: 1.3058 1.50 proj of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2933 Low Nov 5 2020
• SUP 4: 1.2855 Low Nov 2 2020 and a key support

GBPUSD is bearish and traded sharply lower Monday. The pair has convincingly cleared a key support at 1.3163, Dec 8 low. The break reinforces current bearish conditions and confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started early January 2021. This opens 1.3058 next, a 1.50 projection of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at Monday’s 1.3259 intraday high.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 0.8432/78 High Feb 11 / High Feb 7
• RES 3: 0.8406 High Feb 25 and key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8339 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8306 Low Feb 24
• PRICE: 0.8284 @ 06:14 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: 0.8203 Low Mar 7
• SUP 2: 0.8193 1.236 proj of the Feb 7 - 24 - 25 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.8169 1.382 proj of the Feb 7 - 24 - 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.8131 Low Jun 27, 2016

EURGBP traded lower Monday before bouncing off the session low. Bearish conditions are likely to continue dominating near-term. Last week’s move lower resulted in a clear break of 0.8285, Feb 3 low and a move through key support at 0.8282/77, the Feb ’20 and Dec’19 lows. Note that prices remain below 0.8300 highlighting a break of the base of a multi-year range - a key bearish development. Initial resistance is seen at 0.8306, the Feb 24 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Range Bound But Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 118.07 2.236 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 2021 price swing
• RES 3: 117.08 2.00 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 2021 price swing
• RES 2: 116.34/35 High Feb 10 / High Jan 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 115.87 High Feb 15
• PRICE: 115.52 @ 06:17 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: 114.41 Low Feb 24
• SUP 2: 114.16 Low Feb 02 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 113.47 Low Jan 24 and a key support
• SUP 4: 113.14 Low Dec 17

USDJPY has recovered from Friday’s low. The USD remains inside its range but importantly for bulls, continues to trade above the Feb 24 low of 114.41 and more importantly above its key support at 114.16, Feb 2 low. While the latter support holds, the trend condition remains bullish highlighted by a positive MA set-up. Stronger gains would refocus attention on the 116.34/35 key resistance. A break of 114.16, would instead highlight a bearish threat.

EURJPY TECHS: Southbound

• RES 4: 129.58 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 128.77 High Mar 2
• RES 2: 127.39 Low Dec 3/6
• RES 1: 125.90 High Mar 7
• PRICE: 125.41 @ 06:21 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: 124.28 50.0% of the 2020 - 2021 bulls cycle
• SUP 2: 123.45 1.618 proj of the Jan - Sep - Oct ‘21 price swing
• SUP 3: 123.01 Low Nov 20 2020
• SUP 4: 128.85 Low Nov 19 2020

EURJPY remains bearish. The downtrend accelerated Friday and the cross traded to a fresh cycle low once again on Monday. Last week’s move lower confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and highlights an acceleration of the current bear cycle. The focus is on 124.28 next, 50.0% of the 2020 - 2021 bulls cycle. On the upside, resistance is seen at 127.39, the Dec 3/6 low and a recent key breakout level.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Shooting Star Candle

• RES 4: 0.7599 High Jul 6, 2021
• RES 3: 0.7556 High Oct 28, 2021 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.7532 High Nov 2, 2021
• RES 1: 0.7441 High Mar 7
• PRICE: 0.7281 @ 06:29 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: 0.7236 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.7208 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.7141 Low Feb 25
• SUP 4: 0.7095 Low Feb 24

AUDUSD initially strengthened Monday, before slipping into the close. Yesterday’s price pattern is a bearish shooting star candle, highlighting a short-term top. Short-term weakness is likely a correction though and opens support at 0.7236/08, the 20- and 50-day EMA values. The trend outlook is bullish following recent gains and the break of resistance at 0.7314, Jan 13 high. This has reinforced bullish conditions, exposing 0.7471, the Nov 4 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Resistance Appears Exposed

• RES 4: 1.3024 38.2% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Jan ‘21 bear cycle
• RES 3: 1.2964 High Dec 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2924 High Dec 22
• RES 1: 1.2878 High Feb 24 and a key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 1.2827 @ 06:46 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: 1.2699 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2587 Low Mar 3
• SUP 3: 1.2552 76.4% retracement of the Jan 19 - Feb 24 rally
• SUP 4: 1.2499 Low Jan 21

USDCAD traded higher Monday to extend the recovery from last week’s low of 1.2587 on Mar 3. The climb threatens the recent bearish theme and attention has turned to the key near-term resistance of 1.2878, the Feb 24 high. Clearance of this level would be seen as a bullish development and open 1.2964, the Dec 20 high and a key resistance. Weakness below 1.2587 is required to reinstate a bearish threat.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Bullish Despite Pullback

• RES 4: 170.66 0.764 proj of the Feb 25 - Mar 1 - Mar 3 price swing
• RES 3: 170.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 169.44 0.764 proj of the Feb 25 - Mar 1 - Mar 3 price swing
• RES 1: 168.67 High Mar 7
• PRICE: 166.53 @ 05:02 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: 165.31 Low Mar 3
• SUP 2: 164.39 Low Mar 1
• SUP 3: 163.00 Low Feb 25
• SUP 4: 162.29 Low Feb 22

Bund futures remain in a short-term uptrend and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high Monday before pulling back. The break higher confirms a resumption of the underlying uptrend and maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 169.44, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support has been defined at 165.51, the Mar 3 low. A break of this level is required to signal a possible near-term top.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 135.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 134.660 0.764 proj of the Feb 25 - Mar 1 - Mar 3 price swing
• RES 2: 134.240 0.618 proj of the Feb 25 - Mar 1 - Mar 3 price swing
• RES 1: 134.080 High Mar 7
• PRICE: 132.990 @ 05:09 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: 132.460 Low Mar 3 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: 131.050 Low Feb 25
• SUP 3: 130.780 Low Feb 23
• SUP 4: 130.410 Low Feb 8 and a key support

Bobl futures remain bullish and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high Monday, before pulling back. The move higher confirms a resumption of the current uptrend and maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows - the definition of an uptrend. This opens 134.240 next, a Fibonacci projection. A firm short-term support has been defined at 132.460, the Mar 3 low. A break would signal a potential short-term top.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 112.798 1.236 proj of the Feb 23 - Mar 1 - 3 price swing
• RES 3: 112.580 1.000 proj of the Feb 23 - Mar 1 - 3 price swing
• RES 2: 112.362 0.764 proj of the Feb 23 - Mar 1 - 3 price swing
• RES 1: 112.227 0.618 proj of the Feb 23 - Mar 1 - 3 price swing
• PRICE: 111.905 @ 05:17 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: 111.860 Low Mar 4
• SUP 2: 111.655 Low Mar 3 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 111.435 Low Feb 28
• SUP 4: 111.240 Low Feb 23

Schatz futures remain bullish. The contract traded to a fresh trend high Monday before pulling back. The climb marks an extension of the recovery from 111.655, the Mar 3 low and confirms a resumption of the underlying uptrend plus maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Attention is on 112.227 and 112.362, Fibonacci projection levels. On the downside, 111.655 is seen as a firm short-term support.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Remains Above Support

• RES 4: 127.47 2.236 proj of the Feb 16 - 18 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 127.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 126.90 2.00 proj of the Feb 16 - 18 - 23 price swing
• RES 1: 126.81 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 124.66 @ Close Mar 7
• SUP 1: 123.50 Low Mar 1 and a key intraday support
• SUP 2: 122.76 Low Feb 28
• SUP 3: 122.04 Low Feb 23
• SUP 4: 121.10 Low Feb 16 and the bear trigger

Gilt futures remain in a short-term uptrend. Futures rallied on Mar 1 resulting in a break out of its recent range. The move higher highlights a S/T bullish theme and marks an impulsive extension of the current recovery from 121.10, the Feb 16 low. This signals scope for a climb towards 126.90 and 127.47 next, Fibonacci projections based on a recent price swing. Key S/T support is at the Mar 1 low of 123.50. Pullbacks, for now, are considered corrective.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Bullish Theme Intact

• RES 4: 149.22 High Dec 22 2021 (cont)
• RES 3: 148.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 147.93 High Jan 31 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 146.74 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 143.92 @ Close Mar 7
• SUP 1: 142.51 Low Mar 1 and a key near-term support
• SUP 2: 140.54 Low Feb 28
• SUP 3: 138.99 Low Feb 22
• SUP 4: 138.60 Low Feb 16 and the bear trigger

The BTP futures remain below recent highs but the short-term outlook is bullish following strong gains on Mar 3 as the contract extended the retracement of the Jan 31 - Feb 16 downleg. Price has breached 145.73, 76.4% of the Jan 31 - Feb 16 downleg. This has opened 147.93 next, the Jan 31 high. A break of 147.93 would further strengthen the current bullish condition. Firm support is seen at 142.51, the Mar 3 low.

EQUITIES

E-MINI S&P (H2): Approaching The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 4671.75 High Jan 18
• RES 3: 4586.00 High Feb 2 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 4457.46 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 4418.75 High Mar 3
• PRICE: 4157.75 @ 06:56 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: 4101.75 Low Feb 24 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4055.60 Low May 19 2021 (cont)
• SUP 3: 4029.25 Low May 13 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: 3990.50 0.764 proj of the Jan 4 - 24 - Feb 2 price swing

E-Mini S&P futures are weaker and remain under pressure. The contract traded above the 20-day EMA at 4368.94 last Thursday. The failure to hold above this EMA however is a bearish development. Broader trend signals are bearish and the deeper pullback has opened the 4101.75 key support handle and bear trigger. Clearance of the 20-day EMA is required to suggest scope for further short-term gains and a test of the 50-day EMA at 4457.46.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H2) Remains Soft

• RES 4: 4043.80 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 3898.10 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 3714.50 High Mar 4
• RES 1: 3596.50 High Mar 7
• PRICE: 3448.00 @ 05:22 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: 3380.00 Low Mar 7
• SUP 2: 3379.00 Low Dec 21 2020 (cont)
• SUP 3: 3318.60 2.382 proj of the Jan 5 - 24 - Feb 2 price swing
• SUP 4: 3246.30 76.4% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Nov ‘21 (cont)

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain soft. The contract traded sharply lower again Monday to confirm a resumption of this year’s downtrend. Price has moved through the 50.0% retracement of the bull cycle between Mar ‘20 - Nov ‘21 and yesterday breached the 61.8% handle, at 3468.60. MA studies remain in a bear mode condition and the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs suggests more weakness lies ahead. The focus is on 3379.00.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K2) Volatile But Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $149.31 - 4.236 proj of the Aug - Oct - Dec ‘21 price swing
• RES 3: $144.62 - 4.00 proj of the Aug - Oct - Dec ‘21 price swing
• RES 2: $140.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $139.13 - High Mar 7
• PRICE: $126.95 @ 07:03 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: $119.04 - Low Mar 7
• SUP 2: $106.83 - Low Mar 2
• SUP 3: $98.30 - Low Mar 1
• SUP 4: $92.75 - Low Fev 25 and a key short-term support

Brent futures spiked higher Monday but failed to hold onto the session high. Despite the pullback, yesterday’s price action highlights an acceleration in the current uptrend, taking price further into overbought territory. Volatile price action is likely to dominate near-term however it is clear that the uptrend remains firmly intact for now. The focus is on the $140.00 handle next. Initial support lies at Monday’s intraday low of $119.04.

WTI TECHS: (J2) Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: $140.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $135.61 - 3.764 proj of the Aug - Oct - Dec ‘21 price swing
• RES 2: $132.75 - 3.618 proj of the Aug - Oct - Dec ‘21 price swing
• RES 1: $130.50 - High MAr 7
• PRICE: $122.70 @ 07:11 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: $115.54 - Low Mar 7
• SUP 2: $105.18 - Low Mar 2
• SUP 3: $95.32 - Low Mar 1
• SUP 4: $90.06 - Low Feb 23 and a key support

WTI futures remain in a clear uptrend despite the pullback from yesterday’s session high. Fresh cycle highs reinforce the current trend direction and mark an extension of the underlying bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies also point north, highlighting current sentiment. The focus is on $132.75, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial support lies at Monday’s intraday low of $115.54.

GOLD TECHS: Extends Gains Above $2000.0

• RES 4: $2004.4 - 2.236 proj of the Dec 15 - Jan 25 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: $2075.5 - High Aug 7 2020 and a major resistance
• RES 2: $2050.0 - High Aug 10 1 2020
• RES 1: $2030.0 - High Aug 11 2020
• PRICE: $2017.5 @ 07:00 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: $1961.2/29.9 - Low Mar 7 / Low Mar 4
• SUP 2: $1878.4 - Low Feb 24 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $1853.9 - High Jan 25
• SUP 4: $1844.7 - Low Feb 15

Gold is trading higher once again this morning, reinforcing bullish conditions. The metal has cleared the Feb 24 high of $1974.3. This confirms a resumption of the underlying uptrend and also highlights the fact that prices have breached the top of the recent bull channel, drawn from the Aug 9 2021 low. With price above the $2000.0 handle, the focus is on $2030.0 next the Aug 11 2020 high. Initial support is seen yesterday’s low of $1961.2.

SILVER TECHS: Heading North

• RES 4: $27.245 - High Jun 17 2021
• RES 3: $26.789 - 61..8% retracement of the Feb - Dec downleg
• RES 2: $26.467 - High Jul 14 2021
• RES 1: $26.310 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $26.042 @ 07:59 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: $24.866 - Low Mar 2
• SUP 2: $23.850 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 3: $23.807 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $22.863/008 - Low Feb 11 / Low Feb 3 and key S/T support

Silver remains in an uptrend and has again today confirmed a resumption of its current bull cycle. The metal has cleared resistance at $25.406, the Nov 16 2021 high and has this week breached the $26.00 handle. An extension higher would pave the way for strength towards $26.467, the Jul 14 2021 high and $26.789, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial support is seen at $24.866, the Mar 2 low.