MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bearish WTI Conditions Intact

Price Signal Summary – Bearish WTI Conditions Intact

• A bullish theme in S&P e-minis remains intact and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Since the October 27 reversal, corrections have been shallow - this is a bullish signal. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract has traded higher this week. Resistance at 4387.00, Nov 24 high, was breached on Nov 30 . The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• The trend direction in GBPUSD remains up and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a rising trend. Initial firm support is seen at 1.2534, the 20-day EMA. USDJPY maintains a softer tone and the pair traded sharply lower Thursday. The latest sell-off highlights a clear break of the trendline drawn from the Mar 24 low. This strengthens a bearish threat and signals scope for a continuation lower with sights on 140.71 next. The uptrend in AUDUSD remains intact and the pullback from Monday’s high appears to be a correction. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 0.6553, has been pierced. A clear break of the average would open 0.6495, the 50-day EMA.
• Gold traded in a volatile manner Monday. The trend condition is bullish and Monday’s initial gains reinforce this theme. The precious metal touched a fresh all-time high of $2135.4 and this signals potential for a climb towards $2177.6 next, a Fibonacci projection. Bearish conditions in WTI futures remain intact and Wednesday’s sell-off reinforces this condition. The contract has cleared support at $72.37, the Nov 16 low. The break lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend and note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position.
• Bund futures maintain a firmer short-term tone following this week’s continuation higher. On Nov 29, the contract traded above 132.09 the Nov 17 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. That break higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Gilt futures rallied sharply higher this week. The latest gains resulted in a break of resistance at 98.05, the Nov 17 high, reinforcing bullish conditions and confirming a resumption of the current uptrend. The break higher paves the way for a climb towards 99.41.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Testing Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.1081 76.4% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 downleg
• RES 3: 1.1065 High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.0913/1017 High Dec 1 / High Nov 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.0837 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0785 @ 05:53 GMT Dec 8
• SUP 1: 1.0755/33 Low Dec 7 / 50.0% of the Oct 3 - Nov 29 rally
• SUP 2: 1.0693 Low Nov 14
• SUP 3: 1.0665 61.8% retracement of the Oct 3 - Nov 29 rally
• SUP 4: 1.0582 76.4% retracement of the Oct 3 - Nov 29 rally

EURUSD maintains a softer tone following this week’s extension lower. Price has pierced support at the 50-day EMA - at 1.0774. A clear break of this average would strengthen the current bearish theme and open 1.0733 next, a Fibonacci retracement, ahead of 1.0693, the Nov 14 low. On the upside, a strong reversal higher is required to refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.1017.

GBPUSD TECHS: Watching Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.2996 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.2800 High May 5 / High Aug 22
• RES 1: 1.2651/1.2733 High Nov 29 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2588 @ 06:06 GMT Dec 8
• SUP 1: 1.2534 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2442 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2374 Low Nov 17
• SUP 4: 1.2266 Low Nov 14

The trend direction in GBPUSD remains up and the recent pullback is considered corrective. MOving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a rising trend. Initial firm support is seen at 1.2534, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would signal scope for a deeper pullback and open 1.2442, the 50-day EMA. For bulls, the trigger for a resumption of the uptrend is at 1.2733, the Nov 29 high. A break would open 1.2800.

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Flag Formation

• RES 4: 0.8725 High Nov 22
• RES 3: 0.8690 High Nov 27
• RES 2: 0.8643 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8616 Low Oct 11
• PRICE: 0.8568 @ 06:20 GMT Dec 8
• SUP 1: 0.8553 Low Dec 6
• SUP 2: 0.8524 Low Sep 5
• SUP 3: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8441 2.0% 10-dma envelope

EURGBP maintains a softer tone and this week’s consolidation is seen as a pause in the downtrend and appears to be a bear flag formation - a bearish continuation signal. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and this also highlights a downtrend. Sights are on 0.8558, the 76.4% retracement point. It has been pierced, a clear break would open 0.8524, the Sep 5 low. Initial resistance is seen 0.8616, Oct 11 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Bears Remains In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 148.51 High Nov 30
• RES 3: 148.13 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 147.32 High Dec 8
• RES 1: 146.23 Low Dec 4
• PRICE: 143.97 @ 06:51 GMT Dec 8
• SUP 1: 141.71 Low Dec 7
• SUP 2: 140.71 76.4% of the Jul 14 - Nov 13 bull run
• SUP 3: 139.11 1.764 proj of the Nov 13 - 21 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 142.41 Low Aug 8

USDJPY maintains a softer tone and the pair traded sharply lower Thursday. The latest sell-off highlights a clear break of the trendline drawn from the Mar 24 low. This strengthens a bearish threat and signals scope for a continuation lower with sights on 140.71 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. The pair is - for now - trading above this week’s low of 141.71. Short-term gains are considered corrective. Initial firm resistance is at 146.23, Dec 4 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Impulsive Sell-Off

• RES 4: 160.02 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 158.67 High Dec 8
• RES 2: 157.70 Low Oct 30
• RES 1: 156.98 Low Oct 16
• PRICE: 155.44 @ 07:06 GMT Dec 8
• SUP 1: 153.23 Low Dec 7
• SUP 2: 152.24 3.764 proj of the Nov 16 - 21 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 151.42 Low Jul 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: 150.92 Low Jun 14

EURJPY traded sharply lower Thursday as the bear leg that started mid-November accelerates. The cross has cleared all key short-term retracement points of the Oct - Nov rally. This strengthens the current bearish threat. Key support at 154.46, the Oct 3 low, has been pierced. Clearance of this level would further reinforce current bearish conditions and open 151.42, the Jul 28 low. Initial firm resistance is at 158.67, Thursday’s high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bullish

• RES 4: 0.6821 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 0.6747 76.4% retracement of the Jul 13 - Oct 26 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6738 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.6623/91 High Dec 5 / 4 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6607 @ 08:05 GMT Dec 8
• SUP 1: 0.6553/26 20-day EMA / Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.6495 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6453 Low Nov 17
• SUP 4: 0.6360 Low Nov 14

The uptrend in AUDUSD remains intact and the pullback from Monday’s high appears to be a correction. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 0.6553, has been pierced. A clear break of the average would open 0.6495, the 50-day EMA. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting an uptrend. The bull trigger has been defined at 0.6691, the Dec 4 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

USDCAD TECHS: Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.3855/3899 High Nov 10 / 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.3777 High Nov 16
• RES 2: 1.3712 High Nov 24
• RES 1: 1.3648 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3589 @ 08:08 GMT Dec 8
• SUP 1: 1.3480 Low Dec 4
• SUP 2: 11.3417 Low Sep 29
• SUP 3: 1.3401 61.8% retracement of the Jul 14 - Nov 1 bull phase
• SUP 4: 1.3381 Low Sep 19 and a key support

USDCAD maintains a softer tone following and the latest recovery appears to be a correction. The recent break of trendline support, drawn from the Jul 14 low, strengthens the current downtrend and signals scope for a continuation lower near-term. Sights are on 1.3417 next, the Sep 29 low. Initial firm resistance is at 1.3646, the 50-day EMA. A breach of this hurdle is required to ease the current bearish pressure.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H4) Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 136.39 2.50 proj of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 136.12 2.382 proj of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 136.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 135.81 High Dec 7
• PRICE: 135.40 @ 05:33 GMT Dec 8
• SUP 1: 133.91 Low Dec 4
• SUP 2: 132.61 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 132.09 High Nov 17 and a recent breakout point
• SUP 4: 130.47 Low Nov 24 and key support

Bund futures maintain a firmer short-term tone following this week’s continuation higher. On Nov 29, the contract traded above 132.09 the Nov 17 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. That break higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and sights are on the 136.00 handle next. Initial firm support lies at 132.61, the 20-day EMA. A short-term pullback would be considered corrective.

BOBL TECHS: (H4) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 119.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 118.820 3.00 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 10 - 19 price swing
• RES 2: 118.584 2.764 proj of the Nov 14 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 118.480 High Dec 8
• PRICE: 118.320 @ 05:42 GMT Dec 8
• SUP 1: 117.630 Low Dec 5
• SUP 2: 117.060 Low Dec 1
• SUP 3: 116.650 High Nov 17 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 4: 116.390 Low Nov 28

A bull cycle in Bobl futures remains in play and recent gains have reinforced this theme. On Nov 28, the contract cleared 116.65, the Nov 17 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started on Sep 28. The break paves the way for a move towards 118.584 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support has been defined at 115.820, the Nov 24 low. Initial firm support lies at 117.060, the Dec 1 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H4) Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 106.621 1.382 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 3: 106.527 1.236 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 2: 106.375 1.00 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 1: 106.290 High Dec 6
• PRICE: 106.200 @ 05:59 GMT Dec 8
• SUP 1: 106.005 Low Dec 4
• SUP 2: 105.780 Low Dec 1
• SUP 3: 105.777 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 105.640 Low Nov 29

Trend conditions in Schatz futures remain bullish and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Resistance at 105.660, the Aug 17 high, was breached on Nov 17 , strengthening current bullish conditions. This signals scope for a climb towards 106.375, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at 105.780, the Nov 30 low. A short-term pullback would be considered corrective.

GILT TECHS: (H4) Bull Cycle Intact

• RES 4: 99.80 1.382 proj of the Nov 24 - 29 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 99.41 1.236 proj of the Nov 24 - 29 - 30 price swing
• RES 2: 99.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 98.97 High Dec 6
• PRICE: 98.65 @ Close Dec 7
• SUP 1: 97.66/96.10 Low Dec 6 / Low Nov 30
• SUP 2: 95.25 Low Nov 24 and key support
• SUP 3: 95.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 94.74 2.618 proj of the Nov 17 - 20 - 22 price swing

Gilt futures rallied sharply higher this week. The latest gains resulted in a break of resistance at 98.05, the Nov 17 high, reinforcing bullish conditions and confirming a resumption of the current uptrend. The break higher paves the way for a climb towards 99.41, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 96.10, the Nov 30 low. Key short-term trend support has been defined at 95.25, the Nov 24 low.

BTP TECHS: (H4) Impulsive Bull Rally Extends

• RES 4: 118.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 117.81 1.618 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 117.44 1.50 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 117.22 High Dec 7
• PRICE: 116.95 @ Close Dec 7
• SUP 1: 115.18/114.13 Low Dec 4 / Low Nov 30
• SUP 2: 114.21 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 112.70 Low Nov 24 and a key support
• SUP 4: 111.53 Low Nov 14

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains in play and this week’s gains have reinforced the bullish condition. The recent break of resistance at 114.11, the Nov 17 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 19. Potential is for a climb towards 117.44 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term trend support has been defined at 112.70, the Nov 24 low. Initial support is at 115.18, the Dec 4 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 4610.30 2.236 proj of the Oct 27 - Nov 3 - 8 price swing
• RES 3: 4561.00 2.00 proj of the Oct 27 - Nov 3 - 8 price swing
• RES 2: 4533.00 High Jul 31
• RES 1: 4502.00 High Dec 6
• PRICE: 4490.00 @ 06:10 GMT Dec 8
• SUP 1: 4411.00/4366.90 Low Dec 4 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4293.20 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4238.00 Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 4185.00 Low Nov 9 and 10

A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract has traded higher this week. Resistance at 4387.00, Nov 24 high, was breached on Nov 30 . The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, signalling a rising cycle. The focus is on 4533.00, the Jul 31 high. Support to watch is at 4366.90, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z3) Trend Needle Continues To Point North

• RES 4: 4700.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 4685.25 High Jul 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 4644.75 High Aug 2
• RES 1: 4607.75 High Dec 1
• PRICE: 4584.75 @ 07:20 GMT Dec 8
• SUP 1: 4525.42 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4462.25 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4420.25.25 Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 4354.25 Low Nov 10

A bullish theme in S&P e-minis remains intact and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Since the October 27 reversal, corrections have been shallow - this is a bullish signal. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting positive market sentiment. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards 4644.75, the Aug 2 high. Initial support lies at 4525.42, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G4) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $88.55 - High Oct 27
• RES 3: $87.12 - High Nov 3
• RES 2: $84.61 - High Nov 30 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $79.73/82.20 - 20- and 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $75.57 @ 07:05 GMT Dec 8
• SUP 1: $73.50 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 2: $71.45 - Low Jun 23
• SUP 3: $69.86 - Low May 4 and a key support
• SUP 4: $66.90 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 20 - Nov 16 - 30 price swing

A sharp sell-off in Brent futures this week has reinforced a bearish theme. The contract has cleared support at $76.71, the Nov 16 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower high. Price has traded through the $75.00 handle and sights are set on $73.50, the Jul 6 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at $79.73, the 20-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (F4) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: $85.00 - High Oct 27
• RES 3: $83.20 - High Nov 3
• RES 2: $79.65 - High Nov 14 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $72.37/75.16 - Low Nov 16 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $70.82 @ 07:15 GMT Dec 8
• SUP 1: $68.80 - Low Dec 7
• SUP 2: $67.28 - Jun 23
• SUP 3: $65.00 - Low May 4 and a key support
• SUP 4: $63.32 - 2.236 proj of the Noiv 14 - 16 - 30 price swing

Bearish conditions in WTI futures remain intact and Wednesday’s sell-off reinforces this condition. The contract has cleared support at $72.37, the Nov 16 low. The break lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend and note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a clear downtrend. Sights are on $67.28 next, the Jun 23 low. Resistance is seen at $75.16, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: $2206.6 - 1.382 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2177.6 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2135.4 - High Dec 4 and all-time high
• RES 1: $2072.7 - 50.0% retracement of the Dec 4 - 5 downleg
• PRICE: $2029.6 @ 07:28 GMT Dec 8
• SUP 1: $2007.5 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1975.0 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13 and key support
• SUP 4: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16

Gold traded in a volatile manner Monday. The trend condition is bullish and Monday’s initial gains reinforce this theme. The precious metal touched a fresh all-time high of $2135.4 and this signals potential for a climb towards $2177.6 next, a Fibonacci projection. Price has since retraced and is trading closer to this week’s low. A short-term pullback is considered corrective. Initial support is $2009.5, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: $26.397 - 1.50 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022
• RES 2: $26.135 - High May 5 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $25.761 - High Dec 4 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $23.773 @ 08:13 GMT Dec 8
• SUP 1: $23.534 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $21.883 - Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 3: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

Silver failed to hold on to Monday’s gains and reversed sharply lower. For now, the move down is considered corrective and the pullback is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Key support to watch lies at $23.534, the 50-day EMA. A break of the 50-day average would strengthen a bearish threat and open $21.883, the Nov 13 low and a key support. On the upside, Monday’s $25.761 high is the bull trigger.