MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bonds Remain in Bullish S/T Cycle

Price Signal Summary - Bond Futures Remain in Bullish S/T Cycle

• S&P E-Minis maintain a softer tone following last week’s bearish cycle and reversal from 3950.00, the Jun 28 high . The next support lies at 3735.00, the Jun 23 low. A breach of this level would expose key support at 3639.00, the Jun 17 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures maintain a short-term bearish theme following the recent reversal from 3584.00, the Jun 27 high The move lower has exposed the key support and bear trigger at 3384.00, Jun 16 low.
• In FX, EURUSD is unchanged and continues to consolidate. The pair remains vulnerable and is also still trading inside its bear channel, drawn from the Feb 10 high. The channel top intersects at 1.0583 where a break is still required to reverse the short-term direction. EURGBP is unchanged. The cross has recently traded in a choppy manner but trend conditions remain bullish. Price remains above important support levels and moving average studies are in a bull mode condition, highlighting an uptrend. Last week, AUDUSD traded below its key short-term support at 0.6829, the May 12 low. The break strengthens bearish conditions and confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started February 2021.
• Gold is unchanged, The yellow metals weakened Friday but did recover from the session low. Last week’s move lower reinforces bearish conditions and attention is on the key support and bear trigger at $1787.00, May 16 low. WTI futures found resistance last week at $114.05, the Jun 29 high. This peak marks initial resistance and a break is required to confirm a resumption of the recent recovery that would open $116.58, the Jun 17 high.
• Bund futures maintain a short-term bullish tone following last week’s gains. The contract has traded above resistance at 149.00 and this has established a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart, reinforcing the current uptrend. Gilt futures rallied last Friday to confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started Jun 16 - price cleared resistance at 114.55, Jun 24 high. Friday’s gains also signal an acceleration of the current uptrend and the contract has crossed the 116.00 handle.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Inside Its Channel

• RES 4: 1.0787 High May 30 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 1.0612/0774 50-day EMA / High Jun 9
• RES 2: 1.0583/1.0615 Channel top from Feb 10 high / High Jun 27
• RES 1: 1.0522 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0441 @ 06:05 BST Jul 5
• SUP 1: 1.0366/0359 Low Jul 1 / Jun 15
• SUP 2: 1.0350 Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0341 Low Jan 3 2017 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0233 1.382 proj of Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 31 Price swing

EURUSD is unchanged and continues to consolidate. The pair remains vulnerable and is also still trading inside its bear channel, drawn from the Feb 10 high. The channel top intersects at 1.0583 where a break is still required to reverse the short-term direction. Attention is on weakness towards support at 1.0350, May 13 low and the bear trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary downtrend and open 1.0233.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Trigger Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.2495 76.4% retracement of the May 27 - Jun 14 downleg
• RES 3: 1.2406 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2332 High Jun 27
• RES 1: 1.2256 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2115 @ 06:20 BST Jul 5
• SUP 1: 1.1976 Low Jul 1
• SUP 2: 1.1934 Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1795 0.764 proj of the Mar 23 - May 13 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1777 Low Mar 26 2020

The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bearish and last week’s move lower reinforces bearish conditions. The focus is on the key support at 1.1934, the Jun 14 low and bear trigger. The primary trend direction is down and a break of 1.1934 would confirm a resumption of the trend. This would open 1.1795, a Fibonacci projection. Initial key resistance to watch is unchanged at 1.2406, Jun 16 high. First resistance is at 1.2256, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Still Looking For Gains

• RES 4: 0.8852 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Mar ‘22 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8762 1.00 proj of the Apr 14 - May 12 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: 0.8721 High May 26 2021 and Jun 15 / bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8679 High Jul 1
• PRICE: 0.8619 @ 06:26 BST Jul 5
• SUP 1: 0.8551 Low Jun 30
• SUP 2: 0.8533 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8486 Low Jun 9
• SUP 4: 0.8433 Low May 23

EURGBP is unchanged. The cross has recently traded in a choppy manner but trend conditions remain bullish. Price remains above important support levels and moving average studies are in a bull mode condition, highlighting an uptrend. Sights are on 0.8721, the Jun 15 high and bull trigger. A break of 0.8721 would resume the bull trend. Firm support is at the 50-day EMA - it intersects at 0.8533.

USDJPY TECHS: Path Of Least Resistance Remains Up

• RES 4: 140.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 138.56 1.618 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 137.30 1.50 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 137.00 High Jun 29 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 136.24 @ 06:33 BST Jul 5
• SUP 1: 134.27 Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: 132.17/132.09 Low Jun 17 / Bull channel base from Mar 4 low
• SUP 3: 131.50 Low Jun 16 and a key support
• SUP 4: 130.00 Round number support

USDJPY remains inside its recent range. Trend conditions are unchanged though and the uptrend remains firmly intact. A fresh cycle high last week confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and this maintains the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 137.30, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch is 134.27, the Jun 23 low. A break would signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 146.74 High Dec 30, 2014
• RES 3: 145.00/58 Round number resistance / High Dec 31 2014
• RES 2: 144.58 0.764 proj of Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 5 swing
• RES 1: 142.86/144.28 High Jun 30/28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 142.37 @ 06:43 BST Jul 5
• SUP 1: 139.79 Low Jul 1
• SUP 2: 139.39 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 137.85 Low Jun 16 and key support
• SUP 4: 136.25 Low May 30

EURJPY traded lower last week following a reversal from 144.28, the Jun 28 high. Friday's weakness resulted in a clear break of the 20-day EMA. Although this strengthens short-term bearish conditions, the cross has found support at 139.79, the Jul 1 low and just ahead of the 50-day EMA at 139.79. A break of the 50-day EMA would signal scope for a deeper pullback. On the upside, an extension higher would refocus attention on the 144.28 bull trigger.

AUDUSD TECHS: Resumes Its Downtrend

• RES 4: 0.7202 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 0.7138 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 0.7069 High Jun 16 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.6964 High Jun 28
• PRICE: 0.6872 @ 06:47 BST Jul 5
• SUP 1: 0.6764 Low Jul 1
• SUP 2: 0.6759, 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Feb ‘ 21 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 0.6685 High Mar 9 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing

Last week, AUDUSD traded below its key short-term support at 0.6829, the May 12 low. The break strengthens bearish conditions and confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started February 2021. The move lower also maintains a broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 0.6759 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is seen at 0.6964, high Jun 28.

USDCAD TECHS: Support Lies At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.3192 1.00 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 8 price swing
• RES 3: 1.3113 High Nov 23 2020
• RES 2: 1.3079 High May 17 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2966/3017 High Jul 1 / High Jun 23
• PRICE: 1.2846 @ 06:56 BST Jul 5
• SUP 1: 1.2819/13 Low Jun 28 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2732 61.8% retracement of the Jun 8 - 17 rally
• SUP 3: 1.2681 Low Jun 10
• SUP 4: 1.2518 Low Jun 8 and key support

The USDCAD outlook remains bullish and the pair is trading above last week’s low - for now. Price action on Jun 28 highlights a potential bullish reversal signal - a Japanese candle pattern known as a doji reversal is still valid. A stronger recovery would refocus attention on resistance at 1.3079 the Jun 17 and a bull trigger. A break would strengthen bullish conditions. Firm support lies at 1.2813, the 50-day EMA. A clear break would alter the picture.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Bull Cycle Remains Intact

• RES 4: 154.65 High May 27
• RES 3: 153.36 High May 31
• RES 2: 152.28 76.4% retracement of the May 12 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 151.65 High Jul 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 149.07 @ 05:03 BST Jul 5
• SUP 1: 147.78/144.72 20-day EMA/ Low Jun 28 and a key support
• SUP 2: 142.56 Low Jun 17
• SUP 3: 140.67 Low Jun 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 140.00 Psychological round number

Bund futures maintain a short-term bullish tone following last week’s gains. The contract has traded above resistance at 149.00 and this has established a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart, reinforcing the current uptrend. The contract has also cleared the 50-day EMA. 151.65, the Jul 1 high, is the bull trigger. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 144.72, the Jun 28 low.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Short-Term Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 126.710 High May 26
• RES 3: 126.410 High May 27
• RES 2: 126.090 High May 30
• RES 1: 125.790 High Jul 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 124.430 @ 05:16 BST Jul 5
• SUP 1: 123.406 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 121.910 Low Jun 28
• SUP 3: 120.990 Low Jun 21
• SUP 4: 119.940 Low Jun 16 and bear trigger

Bobl futures ended last week on a firm note and a bull cycle remains intact. The contract has cleared resistance at 123.960, the Jun 24 high. This confirms a resumption of the current bullish corrective cycle and price has established a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for a climb towards 126.090, the May 30 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 121.190, Jun 28 low. A break would highlight a reversal.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Bullish Short-Term Focus

• RES 4: 110.063 1.236 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 110.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 109.850 High May 26 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 109.715 HIgh Jul 1
• PRICE: 109.240 @ 05:25 BST Jul 5
• SUP 1: 108.844 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 108.425 Low Jun 28
• SUP 3: 108.025 Low Jun 21
• SUP 4: 107.705 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger

A bullish short-term recovery in Schatz futures resumed last week and conditions remain positive. The contract has cleared resistance at 109.030, the Jun 24 high. This marks an extension of a corrective cycle and price has established a bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for a climb towards 109.850, the May 26 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 108.425, the Jun 28 low.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Corrective Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 118.63 High May 24
• RES 3: 118.16 1.382 proj of the Jun 16 - 24- 29 price swing
• RES 2: 117.48 1.236 proj of the Jun 16 - 24- 29 price swing
• RES 1: 116.58 High Jul 1
• PRICE: 114.71 @ Close Jul 4
• SUP 1: 113.89/111.72 20-day EMA / Low Jun 29
• SUP 2: 110.57 Low Jun 21
• SUP 3: 109.89/60 Low Jun 16 / 4.50 proj of May 19 - 24 - 26 swing
• SUP 4: 109.33 Low Jul 8 2014 (cont)

Gilt futures rallied last Friday to confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started Jun 16 - price cleared resistance at 114.55, Jun 24 high. Friday’s gains also signal an acceleration of the current uptrend and the contract has crossed the 116.00 handle. A break of this level would open 117.48, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 111.72, the Jun 29 low.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Remains Above Support

• RES 4: 130.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 129.00 High May 12
• RES 2: 127.79 High May 26
• RES 1: 126.41 High Jul 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 123.76 @ Close Jul 4
• SUP 1: 121.92/119.81 20-day EMA / Low Jun 28 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 118.60 Low Jun 22
• SUP 3: 115.72 Low Jun 16
• SUP 4: 113.78 Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger

BTP futures maintain a bullish short-term tone and last week’s gains reinforce this theme - price breached resistance at 122.80, the Jun 24 high. The break suggests potential for a stronger short-term correction and attention is on 127.79 the May 26 high. Initial support to watch is at 119.81, the Jun 28 low. A break of this level would instead signal a potential short-term top and the end of the current corrective cycle.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 3774.00 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 3689.00 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 3604.30 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 3584.00 High Jun 27
• PRICE: 3444.00 @ 05:45 BST Jul 4
• SUP 1: 3384.00 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3300.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 3241.70 1.382 proj of the Mar 29 - May 10 - Jun 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 3189.10 1.50 proj of the Mar 29 - May 10 - Jun 6 price swing

EUROSTOXX 50 futures maintain a short-term bearish theme following the recent reversal from 3584.00, the Jun 27 high The move lower has exposed the key support and bear trigger at 3384.00, Jun 16 low. A break would resume the primary downtrend and open the 3300.00 handle. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 3584.00. Clearance of this hurdle is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Still Trading Below Last Week’s High

• RES 4: 4308.50 High Apr 28
• RES 3: 4204.75 High May 31 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 4004.48 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 3950.00 High Jun 27
• PRICE: 3844.25 @ 06:50 BST Jul 5
• SUP 1: 3735.00/3639.00 Low Jun 23 / 17 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3578.27 0.618 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 3500.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3384.75 0.764 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing

S&P E-Minis maintain a softer tone following last week’s bearish cycle and reversal from 3950.00, the Jun 28 high . The next support lies at 3735.00, the Jun 23 low. A breach of this level would expose key support at 3639.00, the Jun 17 low. On the upside, clearance of resistance at 3950.00 is required to reinstate a bullish theme. This would open the 50-day EMA, currently at 4004.48.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U2) Resistance Is At $116.24

• RES 4: $122.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $121.68 - High Jun 9 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $118.12 - High Jun 17
• RES 1: $116.24 - High Jun 29
• PRICE: $113.36 @ 06:56 BST Jul 5
• SUP 1: $108.03/104.35 - Low Jul 1/ Low Jun 22
• SUP 2: $101.86 - Low May 19 and a key support
• SUP 3: $98.72 - Low May 11
• SUP 4: $97.25 - Low Apr 25

Recent gains in Brent futures stalled at 116.24, the Jun 29 high. A break of this level is required to resume bullish activity and this would open $118.12, the Jun 17 high. Clearance of this hurdle would expose the bull trigger at $121.68, the Jun 9 high. For bears, a resumption of weakness would expose the $104.35 key support, Jun 22 low. A breach of this support would strengthen bearish conditions.

WTI TECHS: (Q2) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: $122.68- 1.50 proj of the May 11 - 17 -19 price swing
• RES 3: $120.88 - High Jun 14 and key resistance
• RES 2: $116.58 - High Jun 17
• RES 1: $111.45/114.05 - Intraday high / High Jun 29
• PRICE: $110.06 @ 07:13 BST Jul 5
• SUP 1: $104.56/101.53 - Low Jul 1 / Low Jun 22
• SUP 2: $99.36 - Low May 12
• SUP 3: $95.47 - Low May 11
• SUP 4: $93.45 - Low Apr 25

WTI futures found resistance last week at $114.05, the Jun 29 high. This peak marks initial resistance and a break is required to confirm a resumption of the recent recovery that would open $116.58, the Jun 17 high. For bears, a reversal lower from current levels would signal the end of the recent climb and this would refocus attention on the key support at $101.53, the Jun 22 low. A break would confirm a resumption of bearish activity.

GOLD TECHS: Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $1909.8 - High May 5
• RES 3: $1878.4 - High Jun 13
• RES 2: $1859.2 - Trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high
• RES 1: $1828.3/49.1 - 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1810.9 @ 07:11 BST Jul 5
• SUP 1: $1784.6 - Low Jul 1
• SUP 2: $1780.4 - Low Jan 28 and a key support
• SUP 3: $1753.7 - Low Dec 15 2021
• SUP 4: $1721.7 - Low Sep 29 2021

Gold is unchanged, The yellow metals weakened Friday but did recover from the session low. Last week’s move lower reinforces bearish conditions and attention is on the key support and bear trigger at $1787.00, May 16 low. This level was breached, briefly, on Friday. A clear break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open $1780.4 Jan 28 low. Key trendline resistance intersects at $1859.2. The trendline is drawn from the Mar 8 high.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: $22.517 - High Jun 6
• RES 3: $21.884 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $21.088 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $20.464 - Low May 13 and recent breakout level
• PRICE: $20.036 @ 07:56 BST Jul 5
• SUP 1: $19.385 - Low Jul 1
• SUP 2: $19.000 - Round number resistance
• SUP 3: $18.693 - 61.8% retracement of Mar ‘20 - Feb ‘21 bull cycle
• SUP 4: $18.447 - 2.618 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

The Silver outlook remains bearish and the metal resumed its bear leg last week - price breached the bear trigger at 20.4635, May 13 low. The break lower confirms an extension of the downtrend that has been in place since early February 2021. The metal has also cleared the $20.00 handle and sights are on the $19.00 handle next. The 20-day EMA, at $21.088 marks a key short-term resistance.