MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bounce in Bund Futures Deemed Corrective

Price Signal Summary – Bounce in Bund Futures Deemed Corrective

• S&P E-Minis trend conditions are bearish, however, the strong bounce late last week has eased bearish pressure. Note that the contract has traded above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. An ability to hold on to the latest gains would signal scope for a recovery towards 4100.20, a Fibonacci retracement. Eurostoxx 50 futures have recovered from recent lows and importantly, this has left a key support intact - the base of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 13 low. The line intersects 4211.90.
• EURUSD is consolidating and recent activity appears to be a bear flag. Resistance is at 1.0658, the 50-day EMA. The average was pierced last week, however, a clear break is required to suggest scope for a stronger recovery. This would open 1.0803, the Feb 14 high and a key short-term level. EURGBP short-term conditions appear bullish following last week’s bounce. The cross tested resistance at a trendline drawn from the early February highs - the line intersects at 0.8874 today. AUDUSD’s February downtrend remains intact with price trading closer to its recent lows. The recent consolidation still appears to be a bear flag - if correct, it reinforces the downtrend.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bearish, however, the metal traded higher last week and traded through resistance at $1846.4, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen short-term bullish conditions and signal scope for an extension. WTI futures remain bullish following last week’s appreciation. The contract cleared resistance at the 50-day EMA which intersects at $77.99 today. The breach reinforces short-term bullish conditions and paves the way for a climb towards $80.78, the Feb 13 high.
• Bund futures gains are considered corrective and a short-term recovery would allow the oversold trend condition to unwind. Last week’s move down once again confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Gilt futures remain above last Tuesday’s intraday low of 99.20. Despite the recent bounce, trend conditions remain bearish and last week’s lows reinforce current conditions. The move down confirmed a resumption of the trend and note that the 100.00 handle has been cleared.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.0915 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - 27 downleg.
• RES 3: 1.0803 High Feb 14 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 1.0724/27 38.2% of the Feb 2 - 27 downleg / 50-dma
• RES 1: 1.0658/91 50-day EMA / High Mar 1
• PRICE: 1.0646 @ 06:04 GMT Mar 6
• SUP 1: 1.0533 Low Feb 27 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.0484 Low Jan 6 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.0461 38.2% retracement of the Sep 28 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.0410 2.0% 10-dma envelope

EURUSD is consolidating and recent activity appears to be a bear flag. Resistance is at 1.0658, the 50-day EMA. The average was pierced last week, however, a clear break is required to suggest scope for a stronger recovery. This would open 1.0803, the Feb 14 high and a key short-term level. For now, short-term gains are considered corrective. Support to watch is 1.0533, the Feb 27 low. A break would resume the bear cycle.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.2244 61.8% retracement of the Jan 23 - Feb 17 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.2182 High Feb 15
• RES 2: 1.2147 High Feb 21 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 1.2064 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2038 @ 06:09 GMT Mar 6
• SUP 1: 1.1915 Low Feb 17 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 1.1842 Low Jan 6 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1785 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.1764 Low Nov 17

The GBPUSD trend condition is bearish and nearby resistance remains intact. Support to watch is 1.1915, the Feb 17 low. A break would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and expose key support at 1.1842, the Jan 6 low. Clearance of this key price point would highlight a broader medium-term reversal threat and a potential double top pattern on the daily chart. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 1.2147, Feb 21 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Short-Term Trendline Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.8992 61.8% retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8979 High Feb 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8929 High Feb 17
• RES 1: 0.8874/97 Trendline drawn from the Feb 3 high / High Mar 01
• PRICE: 0.8846 @ 06:20 GMT Mar 6
• SUP 1: 0.8818 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8755 Low Feb 28 and key support and 100-dma
• SUP 3: 0.8722 Low Jan 19 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8712 61.8% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg

EURGBP short-term conditions appear bullish following last week’s bounce. The cross tested resistance at a trendline drawn from the early February highs - the line intersects at 0.8874 today. A continuation higher would highlight a potential reversal and expose 0.8929, Feb 17 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position. On the downside, a break of 0.8755, the Feb 28 low is required to reinstate the recent downleg.

USDJPY TECHS: Holding On To The Bulk Of Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 139.59 61.8% retracement of the Oct 21 and Jan 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 138.17 High Dec 15 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 137.77 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 1: 137.09 High Mar 02 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 135.73 @ 06:50 GMT Mar 6
• SUP 1: 135.26 Low Mar 1
• SUP 2: 133.81 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 132.55 Low Feb 15
• SUP 4: 131.52 Low Feb 14

The USDJPY trend outlook remains bullish and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Last week, price pierced 136.67, 38.2% of the downleg between Oct 21 and Jan 16. A clear break of this hurdle would set the scene for a climb towards 138.17, the Dec 15 high. On the downside, the support to watch lies at 133.81, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal a possible reversal.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 147.75 High Oct 31
• RES 3: 147.10 High Nov 9 2022
• RES 2: 146.73 High Dec 15 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 145.80 76.4% retracement of the Oct 21 - Jan 3 bear leg
• PRICE: 144.44 @ 06:54 GMT Mar 6
• SUP 1: 143.32 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 142.15 Low Feb 24 and a key support
• SUP 3: 141.52 Low Feb 14
• SUP 4: 140.14 Low Feb 13

EURJPY trend conditions remain bullish and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Fresh gains last week maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The cross has recently cleared 144.19, the 61.8% retracement of the Oct 21 - Jan 3 bear leg. This break opens 145.80 next, the 76.4% retracement and 146.73, the Dec 15 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 142.15, Feb 24 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Trend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 0.6989 High Feb 15
• RES 3: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 2: 0.6864 Former trendline support drawn from Oct 13 2022 low
• RES 1: 0.6784 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 0.6754 @ 08:01 GMT Mar 6
• SUP 1: 0.6695 Low Mar 01 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6664 50% retracement Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 3: 0.6629 Low Dec 20 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6585 Low Nov 21

AUDUSD’s February downtrend remains intact with price trading closer to its recent lows. The recent consolidation still appears to be a bear flag - if correct, it reinforces the downtrend. The recent breach of both the 200-dma and 100-dma, reinforced bearish conditions. Price has also recently breached a trendline support drawn from the Oct 13 2022 low. The focus is on 0.6629, the Dec 20 low and the next key support. Resistance to watch is at 0.6864.

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.3808 High Nov 34
• RES 3: 1.3795 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3705 Dec 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3665 High Feb 24
• PRICE: 1.3589 @ 08:06 GMT Mar 6
• SUP 1: 1.3515 Low Feb 22
• SUP 2: 1.3480 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3400 Round number support
• SUP 4: 1.3358 Low Feb 16

USDCAD bullish conditions remain intact and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. The focus is on the key near-term resistance at 1.3705, the Dec 16 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions and clear the way for a test of the 1.3800 handle. The support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA - it intersects at 1.3480. A clear breach of this average would be seen as a short-term bearish development.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 134.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 133.28 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 132.63 High Feb 28
• RES 1: 132.01 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 131.38 @ 05:12 GMT Mar 6
• SUP 1: 130.35 Low Mar 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 130.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 129.26 2.382 proj of the Jan 18 - Jan 30 - Feb 2 price swing
• SUP 4: 128.79 2.50 proj of the Jan 18 - Jan 30 - Feb 2 price swing

Bund futures gains are considered corrective and a short-term recovery would allow the oversold trend condition to unwind. Last week’s move down once again confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on the 130.00 handle next. Initial firm resistance is seen at 133.28, the 20-day EMA. The bear trigger is 130.35, last week’s low.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Trend Signal Points South

• RES 4: 116.890 High Feb 24 and key resistance
• RES 3: 116.390 High Feb 27
• RES 2: 116.060 High Feb 28
• RES 1: 115.770 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 115.280 @ 05:18 GMT Mar 6
• SUP 1: 114.860 Low Mar 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 114.730 3.00 proj of the Feb 20 - 22 - 24 recent price swing
• SUP 3: 114.560 3.236 proj of the Feb 20 - 22 - 24 recent price swing
• SUP 4: 114.455 3.382 proj of the Feb 20 - 22 - 24 recent price swing

Bobl futures traded lower last week. This maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and reinforces the current downtrend. Note that the trend is oversold - any short-term gains would be considered corrective and would allow the oversold reading to unwind. For now, the focus is on 114.730, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is seen at 115.770, the Mar 1 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 105.260 High Feb 24 and key resistance
• RES 3: 105.060 High Feb 27
• RES 2: 104.935 High Feb 28
• RES 1: 104.840 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 104.665 @ 05:32 GMT Mar 6
• SUP 1: 104.525 Low Mar 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 104.507 3.764 proj of the Feb 20 - 22 - 24 recent price swing
• SUP 3: 104.460 4.00 proj of the Jan 18 - Feb 1 - Feb 2 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.413 4.236 proj of the Feb 20 - 22 - 24 recent price swing

Schatz futures remain in a clear downtrend and last week’s move lower confirmed a resumption of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs, reinforcing the current bearish theme. The focus is on a move towards 104.507 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 104.840, the Mar 1 high. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Trend Direction Remains Down

• RES 4: 103.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 102.20 High Feb 20
• RES 2: 101.92 High Feb 24
• RES 1: 100.69/100.98 High Mar 1 / High Feb 27
• PRICE: 99.62 @ Close Mar 3
• SUP 1: 99.20 Low Feb 28
• SUP 2: 99.17 1.382 projection of the Feb 20 - 23 - 24 price swing
• SUP 3: 98.94 1.50 projection of the Feb 20 - 23 - 24 price swing
• SUP 4: 98.70 1.618 projection of the Feb 20 - 23 - 24 price swing

Gilt futures remain above last Tuesday’s intraday low of 99.20. Despite the recent bounce, trend conditions remain bearish and last week’s lows reinforce current conditions. The move down confirmed a resumption of the trend and note that the 100.00 handle has been cleared. A continuation lower would open 99.17, the 1.382 projection of the Feb 20 - 23 - 24 price swing. On the upside, resistance is seen at 100.98, the Feb 27 high.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 113.72 High Feb 20
• RES 3: 113.43 High Feb 24 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 112.35 High Feb 28
• RES 1: 111.96 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 111.23 @ Close Mar 3
• SUP 1: 110.25 Low Mar 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 110.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 109.55 1.618 proj of the Feb 20 - 22 - 24 price swing
• SUP 4: 109.20 1.764 proj of the Feb 20 - 22 - 24 price swing

BTP futures traded to a fresh short-term trend low of 110.25 on Mar 2. Fresh lows maintain the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and this reinforces the current downtrend. The focus is on the 110.00 handle and 109.55, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 111.96, the Mar 1 high. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Pierces The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 4446.00 3.00 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rally from Dec 20 low
• RES 3: 4409.50 High Nov 18 2021 and a major resistance
• RES 2: 4381.50 High Jan 5 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4326.00 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4319.00 @ 06:11 GMT Mar 6
• SUP 1: 4211.90 Bull channel base drawn from the Oct 13 low
• SUP 2: 4175.00/4145.30 Low Feb 24 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3955.00 Low Jan 5
• SUP 4: 3753.00 Low Dec 20 and a key support

Eurostoxx 50 futures have recovered from recent lows and importantly, this has left a key support intact - the base of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 13 low. The line intersects 4211.90. While channel support holds, the broader uptrend remains intact. Today’s gains have resulted in a test of 4323.00, the Feb 16 high and bull trigger. A clear would resume the uptrend. On the downside, a breach of the channel base would alter the picture.

E-MINI S&P (H3): Bounce Eases Recent Bearish Pressure

• RES 4: 4208.50 High Feb 2 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4141.59 61.8% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 2 bear le
• RES 2: 4100.20 61.8% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 2 bear leg
• RES 1: 4062.50 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4053.50 @ 07:11 GMT Mar 6
• SUP 1: 3974.00 Low Mar 3
• SUP 2: 3925.00/3901.75 Low Mar 2 / Low Jan 19
• SUP 3: 3787.62 76.4% retracement of the Dec 22 - Feb 2 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 3819.00 Low Jan 6

S&P E-Minis trend conditions are bearish, however, the strong bounce late last week has eased bearish pressure. Note that the contract has traded above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. An ability to hold on to the latest gains would signal scope for a recovery towards 4100.20, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key support has been defined at 3925.00, the Mar 2 low. A break of this level would reinstate the recent bearish theme.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K3) Bullish Short-Term Theme

• RES 4: $90.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $88.78 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $86.55 - High Feb 13
• RES 1: $86.00 - High Mar 3
• PRICE: $85.19 @ 06:49 GMT Mar 6
• SUP 1: $82.36 - Low Mar 3
• SUP 2: $80.25/78.84 - Low Feb 23 / 6
• SUP 3: $77.76 - Low Jan 5
• SUP 4: $76.04 - Low Dec 12 and the bear trigger

Brent futures traded higher last week and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Price remains above the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at 83.80. A continuation higher would open $86.55, the Feb 13 high. Key short-term support has been defined at $80.25, the Feb 23 low. A break of this level would reinstate the recent bearish theme and this would open $78.84, the Feb 6 low.

WTI TECHS: (J3) Bullish Theme

• RES 4: $86.05 - High Feb 14
• RES 3: $85.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $82.89 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $80.78 - High Feb 13
• PRICE: $79.09 @ 06:58 GMT Mar 6
• SUP 1: $75.83 - Low Mar 3
• SUP 2: $73.80 - Low Feb 22 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $72.64 - Low Feb 6
• SUP 4: $70.86 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger

WTI futures remain bullish following last week’s appreciation. The contract cleared resistance at the 50-day EMA which intersects at $77.99 today. The breach reinforces short-term bullish conditions and paves the way for a climb towards $80.78, the Feb 13 high and $82.89, the Jan 23 high and a key resistance. On the downside, a breach of support at $73.80 is required to reinstate the recent bearish theme.

GOLD TECHS: Trades Through The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $1900.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $1890.2 - High Feb 9
• RES 2: $1870.5 - High Feb 14
• RES 1: $1856.9 - High Mar 3
• PRICE: $1854.7 @ 07:13 GMT Mar 6
• SUP 1: $1804.9 - Low Feb 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1794.2 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: $1787.3 - 50.0% retracement of the Sep 28 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 4: $1774.0 - Low Dec 15

Trend conditions in Gold remain bearish, however, the metal traded higher last week and traded through resistance at $1846.4, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen short-term bullish conditions and signal scope for an extension - this would open $1870.5, the Feb 14 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $1804.9, the Feb 28 low. A break would resume recent bearish activity.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: $23.606 - High Feb 3
• RES 3: $23.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $22.194 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $21.633 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $21.250 @ 07:24 GMT Mar 6
• SUP 1: $20.265 - 61.8% retracement of the Sep 1 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 2: $20.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 3: $19.416 - Low Nov 4
• SUP 4: $19.232 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Feb 2 bull leg

Silver remains in a downtrend and gains are considered corrective. The recent move lower exposes $20.265 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a test and break of the $20.00 handle. Initial resistance to watch is at $21.633, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA intersects at $22.194. The area between these two averages marks a key resistance zone where a break is required to signal a trend reversal.