MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bullish AUD Condition Intact
Price Signal Summary – Bullish AUD Condition Intact
- S&P E-Minis traded lower again, on Monday. The move down appears corrective, however, price has breached support at 6014.00, the Feb 10 low. This signals scope for a deeper retracement and has exposed a key support at 5935.50. The trend condition in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains up and last week’s climb to a new alltime high on the continuation contract, reinforces a bull theme. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up.
- A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Fresh short-term gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the current sequence of higher highs and higher lows. USDJPY bears remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is trading just above its recent lows. Recent weakness has exposed the next key support at 148.65, the Dec 3 ‘24 low. A bullish condition in AUDUSD remains intact and recent gains reinforce the current bullish set-up. Sights are on key resistance at 0.6406/14 - the 100-dma and the 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg respectively.
- A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal continues to trade at its latest highs. Fresh cycle highs once again confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the move lower last week, and Monday’s fresh short-term cycle low, reinforces a bear condition. Support at $70.20, the Feb 6 low, has been pierced.
- Recent gains in Bund futures appear corrective - for now. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and attention turns to key short-term resistance at 132.97, the Feb 13 high. A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains the underlying theme, meaning recent weakness still appears corrective for now. Initial resistance to watch is 93.50, the Feb 13 high. A break of this level would highlight an early bullish reversal signal.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Monitoring Key Short-Term Resistance
- RES 4: 1.0677 50.0% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.0630 High Dec 6 ‘24
- RES 2: 1.0594 High Dec 9 ‘24
- RES 1: 1.0533 High Jan 27 and a reversal trigger
- PRICE: 1.0478 @ 05:55 GMT Feb 25
- SUP 1: 1.0437/01 50-day EMA / Low Feb 19
- SUP 2: 1.0373 Low Feb 13
- SUP 3: 1.0317 Low Feb 12
- SUP 4: 1.0280 Low Feb 10 and a key support
EURUSD is unchanged. A bull cycle remains intact and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Sights are on resistance at 1.0533, the Jan 27 high and a reversal trigger. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish condition and pave the way for a climb towards 1.0630, the Dec 6 high. For bears, initial firm support to watch lies at 1.0401, the Feb 19 low. Clearance of this support would signal a potential reversal threat.
GBPUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 1.2811 High Dec 6 ‘24
- RES 3: 1.2831 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 1.2767 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.2691 High Feb 24
- PRICE: 1.2637 @ 06:05 GMT Feb 25
- SUP 1: 1.2563 Low Feb 19
- SUP 2: 1.2522 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.2440 Low Feb 13
- SUP 4: 1.2333 Low Feb 11 and a key support
A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Fresh short-term gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the current sequence of higher highs and higher lows. An extension would strengthen the bullish condition and open 1.2767, the 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2522, the 50-day EMA.
EURGBP TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows
- RES 4: 0.8378 High Feb 6 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.8361 50.0% retracement of the Jan 20 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.8335 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.8321 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8292 @ 06:30 GMT Feb 25
- SUP 1: 0.8265/8248 Low Feb 21 / 3 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range
- SUP 4: 0.8163 123.6% retracement of the Dec 19 - Jan 20 bull leg
EURGBP continues to trade closer to its recent lows. A resumption of weakness would expose the key short-term support at 0.8248, the Feb 3 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a short-term bearish condition. Note that the early February bounce does highlight a possible bullish reversal theme. Clearance of 0.8378, the Jan 6 high and a key short-term pivot resistance, would be a positive development for bulls.
USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 154.80 High Dec 12 ‘24 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 153.54 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 152.34 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 150.74 High Feb 21
- PRICE: 149.79 @ 06:54 GMT Feb 25
- SUP 1: 148.85 Low Feb 24
- SUP 2: 148.65 Low Dec 3 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 3: 148.01 Low Oct 9 ‘24
- SUP 4: 146.95 61.8% retracement of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg
USDJPY bears remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is trading just above its recent lows. Recent weakness has exposed the next key support at 148.65, the Dec 3 ‘24 low. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish condition and pave the way for an extension towards 146.95, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is 152.34, the 20-day EMA.
EURJPY TECHS: Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 161.35 61.8% retracement of the Dec 30 - Feb 10 bear leg
- RES 3: 161.19 High Feb 13
- RES 2: 160.23 50-day EMA and key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 158.82 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 156.71 @ 07:06 GMT Feb 25
- SUP 1: 155.82/155.61 Low Feb 21 / 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 155.15 Low Sep 16 ‘24
- SUP 3: 154.42 Low Aug 5 ‘24 and key medium-term support
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
EURJPY maintains a softer tone, for now. Attention is on key short-term support at 155.61, the Feb 10 low. Clearance of this level would highlight an important bearish break and set the scene for an extension towards 155.15, the Sep 16 ‘24 low, and 154.42, the Aug 5 ‘24 low and a key medium-term bear trigger. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at 158.82, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance is 160.23, the 50-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.6409 High Feb 21
- PRICE: 0.6338 @ 07:59 GMT Feb 25
- SUP 1: 0.6315/6231 50-day EMA / Low Feb 10
- SUP 3: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.6000 Round number support
A bullish condition in AUDUSD remains intact and recent gains reinforce the current bullish set-up. Sights are on key resistance at 0.6406/14 - the 100-dma and the 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg respectively. A clear break of both levels would set the scene for the next leg higher for the pair, making 0.6429 the next target, the Dec 12 ‘24 high. The 50-day EMA undercuts as support, crossing at 0.6315.
USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Theme Remains Intact
- RES 4: 1.4948 High Mar 2003
- RES 3: 1.4814 High Apr 2003
- RES 2: 1.4503/1.4793 High Fb 4 / 3 and key resistance
- RES 1: 1.4380 High Feb 10
- PRICE: 1.4266 @ 08:06 GMT Feb 25
- SUP 1: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 2: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 3: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.3894 Low Nov 11 ‘24
A bear theme in USDCAD remains intact. The pair has cleared key support at 1.4261, the Jan 20 low. This strengthens a bearish set-up and signals scope for an extension of the current downtrend - a correction. Sights are on 1.4107, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.4380, the Feb 10 high. A move above this hurdle would highlight an early reversal signal.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (H5) Bounce Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 134.54 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
- RES 3: 133.71 High Feb 5 and a reversal trigger
- RES 2: 132.97 High Feb 13 and a key near-term resistance
- RES 1: 132.60 High Feb 21
- PRICE: 132.06 @ 05:37 GMT Feb 25
- SUP 1: 131.26 Low Feb 19 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 131.00 Low Jan 24 and a key short-term support
- SUP 3: 130.28 Low Jan 15 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 130.11 1.236 proj of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 - Dec 2 ‘24 price swing
Recent gains in Bund futures appear corrective - for now. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and attention turns to key short-term resistance at 132.97, the Feb 13 high. Clearance of this level would signal a reversal. On the downside, the short-term bear trigger has been defined at 131.26, the Feb 19 low. A break of this level would resume the bear cycle that started Feb 5.
BOBL TECHS: (H5) Corrective Bounce
- RES 4: 118.258 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
- RES 3: 117.980 High Feb 3 / 5 and a reversal trigger
- RES 2: 117.600 High Feb 13 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 117.530 High Feb 21
- PRICE: 117.340 @ 05:44 GMT Feb 25
- SUP 1: 116.870 Low Feb 19
- SUP 2: 116.700 Low Jan 30
- SUP 3: 116.550 Low Jan 24
- SUP 4: 116.280 Low Jan 14 / 15 and key support
A bear threat in Bobl futures remains present despite a recent recovery - a correction. The contract has traded above the 20-day EMA and attention is on key short-term resistance at 117.600, the Feb 13 high. Clearance of this level would undermine the bearish theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery. On the downside, the short-term bear trigger has been defined at 116.870, the Feb 19 low.
SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Resistance Is Intact For Now
- RES 4: 107.081 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 ‘24 - Jan 15 bear leg
- RES 3: 107.045 High Feb 3 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 106.975 High Feb 10
- RES 1: 106.855 High Feb 12 / 21 and a key near-term resistance
- PRICE: 106.805 @ 05:57 GMT Feb 25
- SUP 1: 106.630 Low Feb 20 and a key near term support
- SUP 2: 106.600 Low Jan 31
- SUP 3: 106.515 Low Jan 30
- SUP 4: 106.435 Low Jan 15 and a bear trigger
A bull cycle that began Jan 15 in Schatz futures remains in play, marking the pullback from the early February highs as corrective - for now. However, recent weakness also highlights a bear threat and support to watch lies at 106.630, the Feb 20 low. Clearance of this level would resume a bear cycle and signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, initial firm resistance to watch is 106.855, the Feb 12 and 21 high. A break would be bullish.
GILT TECHS: (H5) Trading Below Resistance
- RES 4: 94.75 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 3: 94.35 High Feb 6 and key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 93.50 High Feb 13
- RES 1: 92.83 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 92.65 @ Close Feb 24
- SUP 1: 91.78 Low Feb 20
- SUP 2: 91.52 Low Jan 24 and a key near-term support
- SUP 3: 91.10 Low Jan 20
- SUP 4: 89.68/88.96 Low Jan 15 / 13 and the bear trigger
A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains the underlying theme, meaning recent weakness still appears corrective for now. Initial resistance to watch is 93.50, the Feb 13 high. A break of this level would highlight an early bullish reversal signal and refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $94.35, the Feb 6 high. On the downside a continuation lower would instead expose the next important support at 91.52, the Jan 24 low.
BTP TECHS: (H5) Structure Appears Bullish
- RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 121.88 76.4% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 120.98/121.00 61.8% of Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg / High Feb 7
- RES 1: 120.47 High Feb 13
- PRICE: 119.88 @ Close Feb 24
- SUP 1: 118.95 Low Feb 19
- SUP 2: 118.65/117.16 Low Jan 24 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
- SUP 4: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
A bullish cycle in BTP futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective - for now. A stronger reversal higher would refocus attention on 120.98 (recently pierced) and 121.88, Fibonacci retracement points. On the downside, initial key support to watch lies at 118.65, the Jan 24 low. Clearance of this price point would instead highlight a reversal and the end of the corrective bull cycle. First support lies at 118.95, the Feb 19 low.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 5606.00 3.000 proj of the Dec 20 ‘24 - Jan 8 - 13 price swing
- RES 3: 5588.38 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 5574.57 2.382 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 ‘24 price swing
- RES 1: 5555.00 Alltime high (cont), Feb 18
- PRICE: 5457.00 @ 06:09 GMT Feb 25
- SUP 1: 5387.59 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5295.00 Low Feb 6
- SUP 3: 5229.26 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 5112.00 Low Feb 3 and a key support
The trend condition in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains up and last week’s climb to a new alltime high on the continuation contract, reinforces a bull theme. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Sights are on 5574.57 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch is 5387.59, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
E-MINI S&P: (H5) Corrective Pullback Extends
- RES 4: 6205.38 0.764 proj of the Jan 13 - 24 - Feb 3 price swing
- RES 3: 6200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 1: 6079.87/6166.50 20-day EMA / High Jan 24
- PRICE: 6001.50 @ 07:23 GMT Feb 25
- SUP 1: 5994.50 Low Feb 24
- SUP 2: 5935.50 Low Feb 3
- SUP 3: 5892.37 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
- SUP 4: 5842.50 Low Jan 14
S&P E-Minis traded lower again, on Monday. The move down appears corrective, however, price has breached support at 6014.00, the Feb 10 low. This signals scope for a deeper retracement and has exposed a key support at 5935.50, the Feb 3 low. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode condition that suggests the trend direction remains up. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 ‘24 high.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (J5) Bear Threat Still Present
- RES 4: $85.20 - 1.382 proj of the Sep 9 - Oct 7 - 29 price swing
- RES 3: $83.97 - High Apr 12 ‘24 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 2: $83.28 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $77.34/81.20 - High Feb 3 / 15 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $75.05 @ 07:01 GMT Feb 25
- SUP 1: $74.06 - Low Feb 13 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: $71.25 - Low Dec 20
- SUP 3: $70.26 - Low Dec 6
- SUP 4: $69.65 - Low Oct 29 and a key support
Brent futures are trading inside a range. A bear theme remains intact for now. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $77.34, the Feb 3 high. A clear break of this level is required to highlight a bullish development. Attention is on support at $74.10, the Feb 6 low (pierced). Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started Jan 15, and signal scope for a deeper pullback, towards $71.25, the Dec 20 low.
WTI TECHS: (J5) Bearish Theme
- RES 4: $83.40 - 76.4% retrace of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg (cont)
- RES 3: $80.07 - 3.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- RES 2: $79.07 - 3.000 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- RES 1: $74.06/77.86 - High Feb 3 / High Jan 15 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $70.96 @ 07:14 GMT Feb 25
- SUP 1: $70.20/69.80 - Low Feb 6 and bear trigger / Low Feb 24
- SUP 2: $67.75 - Low Dec 20 ‘24
- SUP 3: $66.41 - Low Dec 6 ‘24
- SUP 4: $65.41 - Low Oct 29 ‘24 and a key support
A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the move lower last week, and Monday’s fresh short-term cycle low, reinforces a bear condition. Support at $70.20, the Feb 6 low, has been pierced. A clear break of it would strengthen the downtrend and confirm a breach of the 50-day EMA. This would open $67.75, the Dec 20 ‘24 low. Key S/T resistance has been defined at $74.06, Feb 3 high. A move above this level would reinstate a bull theme.
GOLD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: $3000.0 - Psychological round number
- RES 3: $2974.5 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: $2962.2 - 2.00 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 1: $2956.2 - High Feb 24
- PRICE: $2938.2 @ 07:16 GMT Feb 25
- SUP 1: $2916.9 - Low Feb 21
- SUP 2: $2875.2 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2834.3 - Low Feb 6
- SUP 4: $2789.7 - 50-day EMA
A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal continues to trade at its latest highs. Fresh cycle highs once again confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. The first key support to watch is $2875.2, the 20-day EMA.
SILVER TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 14 - Apr 12 - May 2 ‘24 swing
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $33.450 - 76.4% of the Oct 23 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg
- PRICE: $32.149 @ 08:10 GMT Feb 25
- SUP 1: $32.014/31.382 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: $29.704 - Low Jan 27
- SUP 3: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
- SUP 4: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
A bull theme in Silver remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started Dec 19 and sights are on $33.450, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would further strengthen a bull theme. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at 31.382, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this level would highlight a potential reversal.