MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bullish Conditions Intact for Bunds

Price Signal Summary – Bullish Conditions Intact for Bunds

• S&P E-minis traded lower Thursday. This week’s move lower has resulted in a breach of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Furthermore, the contract has pierced a key support at 4068.75, the Apr 26 low. This highlights a bearish threat and a continuation lower would open 4022.75. A key short-term support in Eurostoxx 50 futures at 4282.60 has been breached this week - the 20-day EMA. The recent move down is considered corrective for now.
• The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and a fresh cycle high today reinforces current conditions. The pair has traded through 1.2599, the Jun 7 2022 high and this signals scope for 1.2667, the May 27 high from last year. USDJPY maintains this week’s bearish theme and traded lower Thursday, extending the pullback from 137.77, the May 2 high. Price has breached the 20-day EMA and pierced support at the 50-day EMA which intersects at 133.86. USDCAD is trading lower and has resumed the bear leg that started Apr 28. Note too that price has breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and this suggests scope for a deeper retracement.
• Gold traded higher Thursday to cancel a recent short-term bearish threat. The yellow metal has breached resistance at $2048.7, the Apr 13 high and confirmed a resumption of the broader uptrend. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. WTI futures remain bearish despite the strong recovery from Thursday’s intraday low of $63.64. The print below $64.58 yesterday, the Mar 20 low and a key support, reinforces a bearish theme. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend.
• Bund futures pushed higher again Thursday. Bullish conditions remain intact and the focus is on 137.55, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would open 138.09, the Apr 6 high. Gilt futures maintain a short-term bullish tone. Resistance at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 101.94, has been breached. This opens 102.63, 38.2% of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg. A break of this retracement would strengthen bullish conditions.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 1.1225 1.236 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
• RES 2: 1.1127 1.00 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 1.1095 High Apr 26 and key resistance
• PRICE: 1.1043 @ 05:42 BST May 5
• SUP 1: 1.0986/42 Low May 4 / 2 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: 1.0909 Low Apr 17
• SUP 3: 1.0877/31 50-day EMA / Low Apr 10
• SUP 4: 1.0788 Low Apr 3

EURUSD continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Attention is on 1.1095, the Apr 26 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.1127, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode condition highlighting bullish sentiment. Key S/T support has been defined at 1.0942, May 2 low. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper correction.

GBPUSD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High

• RES 4: 1.2759 61.8% of the Jun 1 ‘21 - Sep 26 ‘22 downtrend
• RES 3: 1.2733 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.2667 High May 27 2022
• RES 1: 1.2614 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.2566 @ 16:31 BST May 4
• SUP 1: 1.2461 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2436 Low May 2
• SUP 3: 1.2353/45 Low Apr 17 / 10
• SUP 4: 1.2347 50-day EMA

The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and a fresh cycle high today reinforces current conditions. The pair has traded through 1.2599, the Jun 7 2022 high and this signals scope for 1.2667, the May 27 high from last year. A bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows remains intact and moving average studies are in a bull mode position. Support to watch is at the 20-day EMA, which intersects at 1.2461.

EURGBP TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.8918 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8880 61.8 retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8875 High Apr 25 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.8835 High May 3
• PRICE: 0.8759 @ 06:14 BST May 5
• SUP 1: 0.8746 Low May 4
• SUP 2: 0.8729 Low Apr 4
• SUP 3: 0.8719 Low Mar 15 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.8691 Low Dec 19

EURGBP traded lower Thursday and breached support at 0.8760, the May 1 low. This reinforces a bearish theme and attention turns to key support at 0.8719, the Mar 15 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started on Feb 3. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 0.8835, the May 3 high. A break would ease a bearish threat. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.8875, the Apr 25 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Maintains This Week’s Bearish Theme

• RES 4: 139.59 50.0% retracement of the Oct - Jan bear cycle
• RES 3: 138.17 High Dec 15
• RES 2: 136.63/137.91 High May 3 / High Mar 8 and key resistance
• RES 1: 134.88 High May 4
• PRICE: 133.93 @ 06:26 BST May 5
• SUP 1: 133.50 Low May 5
• SUP 2: 133.02 Low Apr 26 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 132.75 61.8% retracement of the Mar 24 - May 2 bull leg
• SUP 4: 132.02 Low Apr 13

USDJPY maintains this week’s bearish theme and traded lower Thursday, extending the pullback from 137.77, the May 2 high. Price has breached the 20-day EMA and pierced support at the 50-day EMA which intersects at 133.86. A clear breach of this EMA would undermine the recent bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper pullback. Key resistance is unchanged at 137.91, the Mar 8 high. Initial resistance is at 134.88, Thursday’s high.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 152.81 1.50 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 3: 152.00 1.382 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 2: 151.61 High May 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 149.25/150.39 High May 4 / 3
• PRICE: 147.85 @ 06:45 BST May 5
• SUP 1: 147.12 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 2: 146.92 Low Apr 28
• SUP 3: 146.29 Low Apr 25 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 145.60 50-day EMA

EURJPY corrected lower again Thursday and has pierced support at the 20-day EMA (at 147.53). A continuation lower would expose a key support at 146.29, the Apr 25 low, ahead of the 50-day EMA which intersects at 145.60. The move lower is considered corrective - trend signals continue to highlight an uptrend. Key resistance has been defined at 151.61, the May 2 high. Initial resistance is seen at 149.25, Thursday’s high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Clears Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.6861 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 2: 0.6772/0.6806 High Apr 20 / Apr 14 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6742 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.6735 @ 06:57 BST May 5
• SUP 1: 0.6640/6565 Low May 4 /
• SUP 2: 0.6565 Low Mar 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6547 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.6500 Round number support

AUDUSD is trading higher today and has cleared resistance at the 50-day EMA. A continuation would signal scope for a test of 0.6772, the Apr 20 high and a breach of this level would expose key resistance at 0.6806, Apr 14 high. On the downside, key support to watch lies at 0.6565, Mar 10 low. Clearance of this level would be bearish and would resume the downtrend that started Feb 2.

USDCAD TECHS: Trading Lower

• RES 4: 1.3805 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 1.3695 High Mar 28
• RES 2: 1.3668 High Apr 28 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3542/3640 High May 5 / 3
• PRICE: 1.3493 @ 08:23 BST May 5
• SUP 1: 1.3485 50.0% retracement of the Apr 14 - 28 rally
• SUP 2: 1.3473 Low Apr 21
• SUP 3: 1.3442 61.8% retracement of the Apr 14 - 28 rally
• SUP 4: 1.3385 Low Apr 19

USDCAD is trading lower and has resumed the bear leg that started Apr 28. Note too that price has breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and this suggests scope for a deeper retracement. Sights are on 1.3485, a Fibonacci retracement and 1.3473, the Apr 21 low. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 1.3668, the Apr 28 high. A break of this level is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 140.30 High Mar 20 and key resistance
• RES 3: 138.09 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 137.55 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 1: 137.22 High May 4
• PRICE: 136.57 @ 05:19 BST May 5
• SUP 1: 135.62 Low Apr 4
• SUP 2: 135.28 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 134.35 Low May 2
• SUP 4: 133.64/133.10 Low Apr 28 / 19 and the bear trigger

Bund futures pushed higher again Thursday. Bullish conditions remain intact and the focus is on 137.55, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would open 138.09, the Apr 6 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at the Apr 19 low of 133.10. This is the bear trigger and a break would reinstate the recent bearish theme. Initial firm support is at 135.28, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Bullish

• RES 4: 120.130 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 119.621 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 downleg
• RES 2: 119.190 High Apr 6
• RES 1: 119.120 High May 4
• PRICE: 118.750 @ 05:32 BST May 5
• SUP 1: 118.180 Low May 4
• SUP 2: 117.746 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 117.370 Low May 2
• SUP 4: 116.890/420 Low Apr 28 / 19 and the bear trigger

A continued recovery in Bobl futures this week reinforces a bullish theme. The contract cleared recent resistance at 118.030 earlier in the week, the Apr 26 high, and this confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Apr 19. The focus is on a climb towards 119.190 next, the Apr 6 high and 119.621, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support has been defined at 116.420, the Apr 19 low. Initial firm support is 117.746, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 106.533 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 3: 106.271 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 2: 106.190 High Apr 6
• RES 1: 106.120 High May 4
• PRICE: 105.980 @ 05:50 BST May 5
• SUP 1: 105.622/350 20-day EMA / Low Apr 28
• SUP 2: 105.475/350 Low May 2 / Low Apr 28
• SUP 3: 105.165 Low Apr 19 / 24 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 105.030 Low Mar 15

Schatz futures bullish conditions remain intact and the contract traded higher again Thursday. This signals potential for a climb towards 106.19, the Apr 6 high and 106.271, a Fibonacci retracement. Price has recently cleared resistance at the 20-day EMA, reinforcing bullish conditions. Key support has been defined at 105.165, the Apr 24 / 19 low. Initial firm support lies at 105.622, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 103.53 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 3: 102.99 High Apr 14
• RES 2: 102.63 38.2% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 1: 102.46 High May 3
• PRICE: 101.84 @ Close May 4
• SUP 1: 101.01 Low May 4
• SUP 2: 100.37/99.73 Low May 2 / Low Apr 19
• SUP 3: 99.55 Low Mar 8
• SUP 4: 99.20 Low Feb 28 and key support

Gilt futures maintain a short-term bullish tone. Resistance at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 101.94, has been breached. This opens 102.63, 38.2% of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg. A break of this retracement would strengthen bullish conditions. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 99.73. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend that started Mar 20. Initial firm support is at 100.37, the May 2 low.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Bullish Recovery Extends

• RES 4: 117.17 High Mar 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 116.97 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 116.17 76.4% retracement of the Mar 24 - Apr 24 downleg
• RES 1: 115.84 High May 4
• PRICE: 115.57 @ Close May 4
• SUP 1: 114.12 Low May 4
• SUP 2: 113.70 Low May 2
• SUP 3: 112.93/89 Low Apr 24 / 61.8% of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 4: 111.88 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally

BTP futures traded higher again Thursday, extending the bull cycle that started Apr 24. The recovery signals scope for a climb towards 116.17 next, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of this level would open 116.97, the Apr 6 high ahead of key resistance at 117.17, the Mar 24 high. On the downside, key support has been defined at 112.93, the Apr 24 low. Initial firm support is 114.12, yesterday’s low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Corrective Phase Still In Play

• RES 4: 4520.00 High June 2001 (cont)
• RES 3: 4403.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• RES 2: 4381.50 High Jan 5 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4363.00 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4277.00 @ 06:34 BST May 5
• SUP 1: 4233.00 Low May 4
• SUP 2: 4220.60 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4175.00 Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: 4164.00 High Mar 22

A key short-term support in Eurostoxx 50 futures at 4282.60 has been breached this week - the 20-day EMA. The recent move down is considered corrective for now. A continuation lower would signal scope for a deeper pullback towards 4220.60, the 50-day EMA. On the upside, clearance of 4363.00, the Apr 21 high and bull trigger, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M3) Breaches Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4288.00 High Aug 19 2022
• RES 3: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and a medium-term bull trigger
• RES 2: 4223.00 High Feb 14
• RES 1: 4127.43/4206.25 20-day EMA / High May 1
• PRICE: 4093.75 @ 08:03 BST May 5
• SUP 1: 4062.25 Low May 4
• SUP 2: 4052.50 Low Mar 30
• SUP 3: 4022.75 50.0% retracement of the Mar 13 - May 1 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4006.00 Low Mar 29

S&P E-minis traded lower Thursday. This week’s move lower has resulted in a breach of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Furthermore, the contract has pierced a key support at 4068.75, the Apr 26 low. This highlights a bearish threat and a continuation lower would open 4022.75, the 50.0% retracement of the Mar 13 - May 1 bull leg. Key resistance is far off at 4206.25, the May 1 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N3) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: $82.88 - High Apr 25
• RES 3: $80.53 - High Apr 28 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 2: $77.36 - Low Apr 27 and a recent breakout level
• RES 1: $75.58 - High May 3
• PRICE: $73.10 @ 06:53 BST May 5
• SUP 1: $71.28 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $70.10 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 3: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $65.72 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)

Brent futures remain vulnerable following this week’s impulsive bearish sell-off. The contract has breached $74.66, the 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 12 bull run. Attention is on the next key support at $70.10, the Mar 20 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the longer-term downtrend that started in Mar 2022. Initial resistance is seen at $75.58, Wednesday’s high.

WTI TECHS: (M3) Bearish Theme Intact

• RES 4: $81.24 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $79.18 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $76.92 - High Apr 28 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $71.79/73.93 - High May 3 / Low Apr 28
• PRICE: $69.19 @ 07:02 BST May 5
• SUP 1: $63.64 - Low May 4
• SUP 2: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021
• SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $57.63 - Low Apr 5 2021

WTI futures remain bearish despite the strong recovery from Thursday’s intraday low of $63.64. The print below $64.58 yesterday, the Mar 20 low and a key support, reinforces a bearish theme. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. Short-term gains would be considered corrective and would allow an oversold condition to unwind. Initial resistance is at $71.79, Wednesday’s high.

GOLD TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: $2100.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $2075.5 - All-Time High Aug 7 2020
• RES 2: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $2063.0 - High May 4
• PRICE: $2046.9 @ 07:07 BST May 5
• SUP 1: $2000.4 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1969.3/1962 - Low Apr 19 and key support / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1934.3 - Low Mar 22
• SUP 4: $1900.0 - Round number support

Gold traded higher Thursday to cancel a recent short-term bearish threat. The yellow metal has breached resistance at $2048.7, the Apr 13 high and confirmed a resumption of the broader uptrend. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up. The focus is on $2070.4, the Mar 8 ahead of the all-time high at $2075.5. Key support is 1969.3, the Apr 19 low.

SILVER TECHS: Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: $26.943 - High Mar 8 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 2: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $26.135 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $25.991 @ 08:29 BST May 5
• SUP 1: $24.492 - Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: $24.093 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $23.572 - Low Apr 3
• SUP 4: $22.828 - Low Mar 28

Silver remains in an uptrend and the recent pullback has been a correction. The metal has traded above resistance at $26.088, the Apr 14 high. A continuation higher would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards $26.222, the Apr 18 2022 high. On the downside, a key near-term support to watch is $24.492, the Apr 25 low. A clear breach would signal scope for a deeper (corrective) pullback.