MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bund Bears Remain In The Driver's Seat

Price Signal Summary - Trend Direction In Bunds Remains Down

• In the equity space, the short-term trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish and the latest recovery appears to be a correction. A resumption of the bear leg would open 4907.57, 50.0% of the Oct 27 ‘23 - Apr 1 bull leg. Firm resistance at 5139.03, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced, a clear break would instead signal a reversal and expose key resistance at 5333.50, the Apr 1 high. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are holding on to their recent gains from 4762.00, the Apr 19 low. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA and resistance at 4990.00, the Apr 15 high. This continues to highlight a potentially stronger reversal and the end of the correction between Apr 2 - 19. An extension higher would expose the bull trigger at 5079.00, the Apr 2 high. Initial support to watch is 4877.40, the 50-day EMA.
• In FX, EURUSD is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The pair has pierced resistance at 1.0723, the 20-day EMA. The recent move higher appears to be a correction, a resumption of the downtrend would open 1.0568, the Nov 2 2023 low, and 1.0528, the base of a bear channel drawn from the Dec 28 high. A clear break of the 20-day EMA would instead signal a stronger recovery. The 50-day EMA is at 1.0775. The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish, however, a corrective cycle is in play for now. The recent recovery is allowing an oversold condition to unwind. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode set-up and the recent break lower, maintains the downward price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A resumption of the trend would open 1.2266, the Nov 14 2023 low. Resistance to watch is 1.2579, the 50-day EMA. The USDJPY trend condition remains bullish. Monday’s volatile session highlights the start of a possible corrective cycle. An early rally Monday stopped short of resistance at 160.20, the Apr 1990 high, before reversing lower. Note that the trend condition is overbought and a deeper retracement would allow the overbought set-up to unwind. Initial key support to watch lies at 154.24, the 20-day EMA.
• On the commodity front, Gold remains in consolidation mode and is trading closer to its recent lows. The precious metal is testing the 20-day EMA and this highlights the start of a possible corrective cycle. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards $2237.6, the 50-day EMA. Note that a short-term bear cycle would allow a significant overbought condition to unwind. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $2431.5, the recent Apr 12 high. In the oil space, WTI futures are trading lower but for now remain above key short-term support at $81.20, the 50-day EMA. The recent move down between Apr 12 - 22, highlights a corrective phase and a clear break of the 50-day average would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards $76.07, the Mar 11 low. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $86.97, the Apr 12 high. A breach of this level would resume the uptrend.
• In the FI space, the trend outlook in Bund futures is unchanged and remains bearish. The latest recovery is considered corrective. The contract traded to fresh cycle lows last week, confirming once again a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 129.26, the 1.618 projection of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing. First resistance to watch is at 131.32, the 20-day EMA. A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact. Last Wednesday’s breach of support at 96.01, the Apr 17 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. Furthermore, moving average studies have recently crossed, highlighting a bear-mode set-up. Scope is seen for a move towards the 95.00 handle next. Initial firm resistance to watch is 97.16, the 20-day EMA.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 1.0943 High Mar 21
• RES 3: 1.0885 High Apr 09
• RES 2: 1.0775 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.0723/53 20-day EMA / High Apr 26
• PRICE: 1.0704 @ 05:28 BST Apr 30
• SUP 1: 1.0601 Low Apr 16
• SUP 2: 1.0568 Low Nov 2 ‘23
• SUP 3: 1.0528 Base of a bear channel drawn from the Dec 28 high
• SUP 4: 1.0517 Low Nov 1 ‘23

EURUSD is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The pair has pierced resistance at 1.0723, the 20-day EMA. The recent move higher appears to be a correction that is allowing an oversold condition to unwind. A resumption of the downtrend would open 1.0568, the Nov 2 2023 low, and 1.0528, the base of a bear channel drawn from the Dec 28 high. A clear break of the 20-day EMA would instead signal a stronger recovery. The 50-day EMA is at 1.0775.

GBPUSD TECHS: Watching Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.2803 High Mar 21
• RES 3: 1.2709 High Apr 09
• RES 2: 1.2579 50-day EMA values
• RES 1: 1.2570 High Apr 29
• PRICE: 1.2544 @ 05:38 BST Apr 30
• SUP 1: 1.2423/2300 Low Apr 24 / 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2266 Low Nov 14 ‘23
• SUP 3: 1.2239 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 - Mar 8 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.2187 Low Nov 10

The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish, however, a corrective cycle is in play for now. The recent recovery is allowing an oversold condition to unwind. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode set-up and the recent break lower, maintains the downward price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A resumption of the trend would open 1.2266, the Nov 14 2023 low. Resistance to watch is 1.2579, the 50-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Threat

• RES 4: 0.8704 76.4% retracement of the Nov 20 - Feb 14 bear cycle
• RES 3: 0.8683 High Jan 2
• RES 2: 0.8665 61.8% retracement of the Nov 20 - Feb 14 bear cycle
• RES 1: 0.8600/45 High Apr 24 / 23
• PRICE: 0.8534 @ 05:58 BST Apr 30
• SUP 1: 0.8531 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.8521/8504 Low Apr 17 / Low Mar 8
• SUP 3: 0.8498/93 Low Feb 14 / Low Aug 23 2023 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase

EURGBP traded lower Monday having started the week on a bearish note. The extension down undermines a recent bullish theme and instead highlights potential for a deeper retracement. This has exposed 0.8521, the Apr 17 low. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a move towards the key support at 0.8498/93, the Feb 14 low and Aug 23 2023 low. Key resistance has been defined at 0.8645, the Apr 23 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Retracement Mode

• RES 4: 160.17/20 High Apr 29 / High Apr 1990
• RES 3: 159.55 2.618 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 2: 158.97 2.50 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 1: 158.44 HIgh Apr 26
• PRICE: 156.75 @ 06:16 BST Apr 30
• SUP 1: 154.54 Low Apr 29
• SUP 2: 154.24/152.08 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 150.81 Low Apr 5
• SUP 4: 150.27 Low Mar 21

The USDJPY trend condition remains bullish. Monday’s volatile session highlights the start of a possible corrective cycle. An early rally Monday stopped short of resistance at 160.20, the Apr 1990 high, before reversing lower. Note that the trend condition is overbought and a deeper retracement would allow the overbought set-up to unwind. Initial key support to watch lies at 154.24, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA lies at 152.08.

EURJPY TECHS: Overbought Trend Condition Unwinds

• RES 4: 171.64 2.00 proj of the Jan 1 - 19 - Feb 1 price swing
• RES 3: 171.56 Intraday high
• RES 2: 170.04 1.764 proj of the Jan 1 - 19 - Feb 1 price swing
• RES 1: 169.39 High Apr 26
• PRICE: 167.66 @ 06:29 BST Apr 30
• SUP 1: 167.67 Low Apr 29
• SUP 2: 165.37 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 164.33 Trendline drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low
• SUP 4: 163.84 50-day EMA

The EURJPY trend condition remains bullish however a sharp rally followed by a strong reversal on Monday, signals scope for a deeper retracement near-term. A bear cycle would allow an overbought trend condition to unwind. Initial support to watch lies at 165.37, the 20-day EMA. Key trendline support lies at 164.33 remains intact. The line is drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low and a clear break of it is required to signal a short-term reversal.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 0.6668 High Mar 8
• RES 3: 0.6644 High Apr 9 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.6617 50.0% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.6587 High Apr 29
• PRICE: 0.6523 @ 07:56 BST Apr 30
• SUP 1: 0.6441/6363 Low Apr 23 / 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.6315 Low Oct 31 ‘23
• SUP 4: 0.6270 Low Oct 26 ‘23 and a key support

The current bullish phase in AUDUSD remains intact despite today’s pullback. Resistance at 0.6528, the 50-day EMA, has been breached and the clear break highlights a stronger reversal that signals scope for a climb towards 0.6644, the Apr 9 high. A clear reversal lower would instead refocus attention on 0.6363, the Apr 19 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this support would resume the recent downtrend.

USDCAD TECHS: Remains Above Support

• RES 4: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3855 High Nov 10 2023
• RES 2: 1.3804/46 High Apr 19 / 16
• RES 1: 1.3731 High Apr 25
• PRICE: 1.3692 @ 08:00 BST Apr 30
• SUP 1: 1.3632 Low Apr 29
• SUP 2: 1.3609 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4

USDCAD is trading closer to last week’s low. A bullish trend condition remains intact and the most recent pullback appears to be a correction - for now. The pair has recently cleared 1.3614, the Mar 19, 22, 25 and 29 highs, strengthening a bullish theme. This opens 1.3855 next, the Nov 10 ‘23 high. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear rising trend. Key support to watch 1.3609, the 50-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M4) Bearish Trend Condition

• RES 4: 134.15 High Mar 8 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 133.48 High Mar 27
• RES 2: 133.05 High Apr 12
• RES 1: 131.32 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 130.92 @ 04:59 BST Apr 30
• SUP 1: 129.53 Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: 129.26 1.618 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 129.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 128.88 1.764 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing

The trend outlook in Bund futures is unchanged and remains bearish. The latest recovery is considered corrective. The contract traded to fresh cycle lows last week, confirming once again a resumption of the downtrend. Key support at 131.23, the Feb 29 low, has also recently been cleared. Sights are on 129.26, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, firm resistance is at 133.05, the Apr 12 high. First resistance to watch is at 131.32, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (M4) Corrective Gains

• RES 4: 118.460 High Mar 12
• RES 2: 118.100/118.310 High Apr 12 / High Mar 27
• RES 3: 117.620 High APr 19
• RES 1: 117.203 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 116.920 @ 05:17 BST Apr 30
• SUP 1: 116.270 Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: 116.135 1.50 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 115.964 1.618 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 115.752 1.764 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing

The downtrend in Bobl futures remains intact and the latest recovery appears to be a correction. The contract traded to a fresh cycle low last week. Key support at 117.200, the Feb 29 low, has also recently been cleared, strengthening the bearish theme and confirming a continuation of the downtrend. Sights are on 116.135, a Fibonacci projection. First resistance to watch is 117.203, 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M4) Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 105.790 High Mar 25 and key resistance
• RES 3: 105.680 High Apr 12
• RES 2: 105.525 High Apr 19
• RES 1: 105.419/680 20-day EMA / High Apr 12
• PRICE: 105.275 @ 05:13 BST Apr 30
• SUP 1: 105.140 Low Apr 25 and 26
• SUP 2: 105.106 1.382 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 25 price swing
• SUP 3: 105.047 1.50 proj of the Aug 8 - Mar 18 - Mar 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 105.000 Round number support

The trend condition in Schatz futures is unchanged and remains bearish. The recent break of support at 105.490, the Feb 29 low and bear trigger, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started late December last year. Last week’s extension lower reinforces current conditions and sights are on 105.106, a Fibonacci projection. Key resistance has been defined at 105.790, the Mar 25 high. Initial firm resistance is 105.419, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (M4) Bearish Trend Sequence Intact

• RES 4: 100.05 High Mar 22
• RES 3: 99.37 High Apr 4
• RES 2: 99.10 High Apr 10
• RES 1: 97.16/98.23 20-day EMA / High Apr 12
• PRICE: 96.49 @ Close Apr 29
• SUP 1: 95.36 Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: 95.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 94.86 2.236 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 94.52 2.382 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing

A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact. Last Wednesday’s breach of support at 96.01, the Apr 17 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Furthermore, moving average studies have recently crossed, highlighting a bear-mode set-up. Scope is seen for a move towards the 95.00 handle next. Initial firm resistance to watch is 97.16, the 20-day EMA.

BTP TECHS: (M4) Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 120.65 High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 120.28 High Mar 14
• RES 2: 119.55 High Mar 27
• RES 1: 117.95/119.10 High Apr 23 / 10
• PRICE: 117.70 @ Close Apr 29
• SUP 1: 115.76 Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: 115.70 Low Dec 8 ‘23 (cont)
• SUP 3: 114.74 1.236 proj of the Dec 27 - Feb 22 - Mar 14 price swing
• SUP 4: 114.09 1.382 proj of the Dec 27 - Feb 22 - Mar 14 price swing

A bearish threat in BTP futures remains present and the latest recovery appears to be a correction - for now. Last week’s move lower reinforces a bearish theme. The break lower resulted in a breach of 116.15, the Feb 22 low and a bear trigger. A clear break of this level would highlight an important bearish development and open 115.70 initially, the Dec 8 2023 low (cont). Key short-term resistance to watch is 119.10, the Mar 27 high.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M4) Short-Term Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 110-06 High Apr 4
• RES 3: 109-26+ High Apr 10
• RES 2: 109-17 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 108-15+ 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 107-30 @ 19:04 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: 107-04 Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: 106-27 2.764 proj of Dec 27 - Jan 19 - Feb 1 price swing
• SUP 3: 106-16 Base of a bear channel drawn from the Feb 1 low
• SUP 4: 106-08 3.00 proj of Dec 27 - Jan 19 - Feb 1 price swing

The trend outlook in Treasuries is unchanged and the direction remains down. The contract traded to a fresh cycle low last Thursday. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up too, highlighting a clear downtrend. Note too that the recent consolidation appears to have been a flag formation - a bearish continuation pattern. Sights are on 106-27 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is 108-15+, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Holding On To The Bulk Of Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 5079.00 High Apr 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 5043.00 High Apr 4
• RES 1: 5006.00 High Apr 30
• PRICE: 4957.00 @ 05:49 BST Apr 30
• SUP 1: 4877.40 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4762.00 Low Apr 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4711.00 Low Feb 19
• SUP 4: 4700.00 Round number support

Eurostoxx 50 futures are holding on to their recent gains from 4762.00, the Apr 19 low. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA and resistance at 4990.00, the Apr 15 high. This continues to highlight a potentially stronger reversal and the end of the correction between Apr 2 - 19. An extension higher would expose the bull trigger at 5079.00, the Apr 2 high. Key support lies at 4762.00. Initial support to watch is 4877.40, the 50-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Has Pierced Resistance At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 5333.50 High Apr 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 5285.00 High Apr 10
• RES 2: 5213.25 High Apr 15
• RES 1: 5139.03/5154.25 20-day EMA / High Apr 29
• PRICE: 4137.25 @ 06:49 BST Apr 30
• SUP 1: 5022.25/4963.50 Low Apr 25 / 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4907.57 50.0% retracement of the Oct 27 ‘23 - Apr 1 bull leg
• SUP 3: 4863.75 Low Jan 19
• SUP 4: 4799.50 Low Jan 17

The S/T trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish and the latest recovery appears to be a correction. The contract has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, signalling scope for a continuation lower. A resumption of the bear leg would open 4907.57, a Fibonacci retracement. Firm resistance at 5139.03, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced, a clear break would instead signal a reversal and expose key resistance at 5333.50, the Apr 1 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N4) Key Short-Term Support Intact For Now

• RES 4: $95.18 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $94.00 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $92.09 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 1: $91.18 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $86.93 @ 07:03 BST Apr 30
• SUP 1: $85.32 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $80.24 - 61.8% retracement of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull cycle
• SUP 3: $75.91 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $73.47 Low Dec 13 and a key support

Brent futures remain above recent lows and key support at $85.32, the 50-day EMA. A bearish corrective cycle remains in play and a clear break of the 50-day EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement that would open $80.24, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $91.18, the Apr 12 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend.

WTI TECHS: (M4) Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $91.24 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $88.07 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 1: $86.97 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $82.39 @ 07:12 BST Apr 30
• SUP 1: $81.20 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $76.07 - Low Mar 11
• SUP 3: $71.47 Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $70.11 - Low Jan 3

WTI futures are trading lower but for now remain above key short-term support at $81.20, the 50-day EMA. The recent move down between Apr 12 - 22, highlights a corrective phase and a clear break of the 50-day average would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards $76.07, the Mar 11 low. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $86.97, the Apr 12 high. A breach of this level would resume the uptrend.

GOLD TECHS: Testing Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: $2500.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $2481.5 - 1.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $2431.5 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $2322.8 @ 07:18 BST Apr 30
• SUP 1: $2291.6 - Low Apr 23
• SUP 2: $2237.6 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: $2088.5 - High Dec 28

Gold remains in consolidation mode and is trading closer to its recent lows. The precious metal is testing the 20-day EMA and this highlights the start of a possible corrective cycle. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards $2237.6, the 50-day EMA. Note that a short-term bear cycle would allow a significant overbought condition to unwind. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $2431.5, the recent Apr 12 high.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Short-Term Cycle

• RES 4: $30.912 - 3.00 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $30.100 - Feb 2021 high and a key resistance
• RES 2: $30.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $28.936/29.797 - High Apr 19 / 12
• PRICE: $26.624 @ 10:19 BST Apr 30
• SUP 1: $26.540 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $25.983/24.328 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 27
• SUP 3: $22.277 - Low Feb 28
• SUP 4: $21.928 - Low Jan 22 and a key support

A sharp sell-off in Silver on Apr 22 highlights the start of a corrective cycle. The metal has traded through the 20-day EMA and an extension lower would signal scope for a move towards $25.983, the 50-day EMA. Note that a pullback is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. A break of the 50-day EMA is required to strengthen a bearish threat. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger is at $29.797, the Apr 12 high.