MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bund Downtrend Persistst

Price Signal Summary – Bund Downtrend Persists

• Further slippage Friday put the S&P E-Minis to fresh February lows, with weakness extending through the close. Last week’s price action put prices below first support at the 50-day EMA at 4024.94 and tilts the near-term view lower. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher Monday and price remains above Friday’s low of 4175.00. Key support to watch is 4174.50, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 13 low. While channel support holds, the broader uptrend remains intact.
• GBPUSD maintains a bearish tone despite yesterday’s bounce and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. A break of 1.1915, the Feb 17 low would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and expose key support at 1.1842, the Jan 6 low. USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and price is trading at recent highs. Sights are on 136.67, the 38.2% retracement of the downleg between Oct 21 and Jan 16. A break of this level would set the scene for a climb towards 138.17, the Dec 15 high. USDCAD rallied last week and bulls remain in the driver’s seat for now. Sights are on the bull trigger at 1.3705, the Dec 16 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions and pave the way for a test and break of the 1.3800 handle.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bearish and price is trading below the 50-day EMA, at $1847.6. The break of this EMA, in mid-February, strengthened the case for bears. Sights are set on the $1800.0 handle and $1787.3, the 50.0% retracement of the uptrend between Sep 28 and Feb 2. WTI futures remain above last week’s lows and key short-term support has been defined at $73.80, the Feb 22 low. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and for now, this suggests potential for a continuation lower near-term. A break of the $73.80, would open $72.64, the Feb 6 low.
• Bund futures remain in a downtrend and attention is on initial support at 133.63, the Feb 22 low. This level was pierced Monday, a clear break would confirm a resumption of the current bear leg and pave the way for a move towards 132.60, the Jan 2 low. Gilt futures traded lower Monday and in the process breached last week’s 100.20 low (Feb 24). The move down confirms a resumption of the current bearish cycle and not that the 100.00 handle has been pierced.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 1.0803 High Feb 14 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 1.0745 High Feb 15
• RES 2: 1.0665 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.0620 High Feb 27
• PRICE: 1.0585 @ 05:34 GMT Feb 28
• SUP 1: 1.0533 Low Feb 27
• SUP 2: 1.0484 Low Jan 6 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.0461 38.2% retracement of the Sep 28 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.0436 2.0% 10-dma envelope

EURUSD is trading closer to its recent lows despite yesterday’s gains and remains in downtrend. The recent break of the 50-day EMA, at 1.0665, reinforces bearish conditions and attention is on 1.0484, the Jan 6 low. A break of this level would expose 1.0461, the 38.2% retracement of the Sep 28 - Feb 2 bull cycle. Clearance of the 1.0484/61 support zone would strengthen the bearish theme. Initial resistance to watch is 1.0665.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.2269 High Feb 14
• RES 3: 1.2182 High Feb 15
• RES 2: 1.2147 High Feb 21
• RES 1: 1.2101 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2042 @ 05:52 GMT Feb 28
• SUP 1: 1.1923/15 Low Feb 27/17
• SUP 2: 1.1842 Low Jan 6 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1804 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.1764 Low Nov 17

GBPUSD maintains a bearish tone despite yesterday’s bounce and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. A break of 1.1915, the Feb 17 low would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and expose key support at 1.1842, the Jan 6 low. Clearance of this important price level would highlight a broader reversal threat and a potential double top reversal pattern. Key short-term resistance is seen at 1.2101, the 50-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 0.8979 High Feb 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.8929 High Feb 17
• RES 2: 0.8887 High Feb 21
• RES 1: 0.8839 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8788 @ 06:55 GMT Feb 28
• SUP 1: 0.8783 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.8762 Low Jan 30
• SUP 3: 0.8752 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8722 Low Jan 19 and a key support

EURGBP remains vulnerable and the cross is trading at its recent lows. Price has recently cleared both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, reinforcing a bearish threat. A continuation lower would open 0.8762, the Jan 30 low ahead of key support at 0.8722, the Jan 19 low. On the upside, initial resistance is at 0.8839, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this level would ease the current bearish threat.

USDJPY TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 138.17 High Dec 15 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 137.37.38 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 137.18 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 1: 136.67 38.2% retracement of the Oct 21 - Jan 16 bear leg
• PRICE: 136.29 @ 06:21 GMT Feb 28
• SUP 1: 134.06 Low Feb 24
• SUP 2: 133.39 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 133.25 Trendline drawn from the Feb 2 Low
• SUP 4: 131.52 Low Feb 14

USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and price is trading at recent highs. Sights are on 136.67, the 38.2% retracement of the downleg between Oct 21 and Jan 16. A break of this level would set the scene for a climb towards 138.17, the Dec 15 high. On the downside, the support top watch lies at 133.27, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA is required to signal a possible reversal.

EURJPY TECHS: Strong Start

• RES 4: 145.83 High Dec 20
• RES 3: 145.69 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 144.53 76.4% retracement of the Dec 15 - Jan 3 bear leg
• RES 1: 144.46 High Feb 27
• PRICE: 144.32 @ 08:04 GMT Feb 27
• SUP 1: 140.44 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 2: 139.56/06 Low Feb 10 and a key support / Low Jan 20
• SUP 3: 137.92 Low Jan 19
• SUP 4: 137.39 Low Jan 3 and the bear trigger

EURJPY traded stronger to start the week, showing above last week’s highs at 144.16. This further firms the outlook for the cross, and extends the winning streak posted last week. The recent break of 142.99 confirms a continuation of the recovery that started on Jan 3. The next upside level sits at 144.53, ahead of vol-band resistance at 2.0% 10-dma envelope. Firmer support is expected at 139.94, the Feb 3 low and the outlook remains bullish.

AUDUSD TECHS: Flips Bearish

• RES 4: 0.7245 2.00 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
• RES 3: 0.7202 High Jun 9
• RES 2: 0.7172 1.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
• RES 1: 0.7082/0.7158 High Feb 3 / 2 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6726 @ 16:17 GMT Feb 27
• SUP 1: 0.6698 Low Feb 27
• SUP 2: 0.6688 Low Jan 3
• SUP 3: 0.6664 50% retracement Oct - Feb Upleg
• SUP 4: 0.6629 Low Dec 20

AUDUSD’s February downtrend accelerated early Monday, with the pair hitting a new pullback low at 0.6698. This makes for a clean break of the 200-dma and 100-dma at 0.6799 and 0.6730 respectively. The break below the DMAs opens fresh losses toward Dec lows at 0.6629. Technical conditions are yet to hit oversold, leaving a lower likelihood of a corrective recovery at this stage.

USDCAD TECHS: Building Base for Recovery

• RES 4: 1.3751 High Nov 4
• RES 3: 1.3742 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3705 Dec 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3665 High Feb 24
• PRICE: 1.3568 @ 16:18 GMT Feb 27
• SUP 1: 1.3275/3262 Low Feb 14 / 2
• SUP 2: 1.3226 Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
• SUP 4: 1.3131 0.764 proj of the Oct 13 - Nov 15 - Dec 16 price swing

USDCAD rallied solidly Friday, topping the recent high of 1.3537. This defies the view that the recent bounce was corrective, as the pair builds a base for further gains. The bull trigger is still someway off at 1.3705, but a weekly close above the 1.3500 would prove constructive. A break of 1.3262, Feb 2 low, would strengthen bearish conditions and open 1.3226, the Nov 15 low and the bear trigger.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H3) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 137.38 High Feb 9
• RES 3: 136.54 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 136.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 134.36/135.38 High Feb 27 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 132.82@ 08:57 GMT Feb 28
• SUP 1: 132.51 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 132.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 131.80 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 131.16 2.00 proj of the Jan 19 - Jan 30 - Feb 2 price swing

Bund futures remain in a downtrend and the contract has traded lower today. This has resulted in a test of the 132.60 key support. the Jan 2 low. A clear breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend and open the 132.00 handle next ahead of 131.80, support based on a MA envelope study. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 135.38, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

BOBL TECHS: (H3) Pierces The 115.00 Handle

• RES 4: 117.100 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 116.760 Low Feb 8
• RES 2: 116.475 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 115.850 High Feb 27
• PRICE: 115.040 @ 09:10 GMT Feb 28
• SUP 1: 114.950 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 114.843 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 114.511 2.236 proj of the Jan 19 - Jan 30 - Feb 2 price swing
• SUP 4: 114.239 2.382 proj of the Jan 19 - Jan 30 - Feb 2 price swin

Bobl futures extended recent weakness on Monday to hit fresh YTD lows at 115.390. The contract has followed through this morning and a sharp sell-off has resulted in a test of 155.00. The break lower confirms a resumption of the current bear cycle and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 114.843, support based on a MA envelope study. Initial firm resistance to watch is 116.475, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H3) Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 105.723 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 105.580 High Feb 13
• RES 2: 105.447 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 105.195 High Feb 27
• PRICE: 105.075 @ 05:12 GMT Feb 28
• SUP 1: 105.045 Low Feb 27
• SUP 2: 104.978 2.236 proj of the Jan 18 - Feb 1 - Feb 2 price swing
• SUP 3: 104.714 Lower 3.0% Bollinger Band
• SUP 4: 104.230 1.0% 10-dma Envelope

Schatz futures remain in a clear downtrend and yesterday’s fresh YTD low reinforces bearish conditions. The move maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on the 105.000 handle and 104.978, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, firm resistance is seen at 105.447, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this resistance would signal a short-term reversal.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Pierces The 100.00 Handle

• RES 4: 103.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 102.20 High Feb 20
• RES 2: 101.92 High Feb 24
• RES 1: 100.98 High Feb 27
• PRICE: 100.06 @ Close Feb 27
• SUP 1: 99.78 Low Feb 27
• SUP 2: 99.46 1.236 projection of the Feb 20 - 23 - 24 price swing
• SUP 3: 99.17 1.382 projection of the Feb 20 - 23 - 24 price swing
• SUP 4: 98.94 1.50 projection of the Feb 20 - 23 - 24 price swing

Gilt futures traded lower Monday and in the process breached last week’s 100.20 low (Feb 24). The move down confirms a resumption of the current bearish cycle and not that the 100.00 handle has been pierced. A continuation lower would open 99.46, the 1.236 projection of the recent Feb 20 - 23 - 24 price swing. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at Monday’s 100.98 intraday high.

BTP TECHS: (H3) Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 116.33 High Feb 9
• RES 3: 116.11 High Feb 14
• RES 2: 115.30 High Feb 15
• RES 1: 114.20 50-day EMA and a key resistance
• PRICE: 113.21 @ Close Feb 24
• SUP 1: 112.08 Low Feb 27
• SUP 2: 111.30 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 110.77 Low Jan 4 and 76.4% of the Dec 30 - Jan 19 rally
• SUP 4: 109.29 Low Jan 3

BTP futures remain above last week’s low of 112.08 on Feb 22. While prices have stabilised somewhat, the near-term picture remains bearish for now. The next downside levels to watch cross at 111.30, the 2.0% 10-dma envelope and 110.77, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, resistance to watch is at 114.20, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this average is required to signal a potential base.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Channel Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 4446.00 3.00 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rally from Dec 20 low
• RES 3: 4409.50 High Nov 18 2021 and a major resistance
• RES 2: 4381.50 High Jan 5 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4323.00 High Feb 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4253.00 @ 05:31 GMT Feb 28
• SUP 1: 4174.50 Bull channel base drawn from the Oct 13 low
• SUP 2: 4126.90 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3955.00 Low Jan 5
• SUP 4: 3753.00 Low Dec 20 and a key support

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher Monday and price remains above Friday’s low of 4175.00. Key support to watch is 4174.50, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 13 low. While channel support holds, the broader uptrend remains intact and a continuation higher near-term would expose the bull trigger at 4323.00, Feb 16 high. A break of this hurdle would resume the broader uptrend. A breach of the channel base would alter the picture.

E-MINI S&P (H3): Resistance Remains Intact For Now

• RES 4: 4168.50 High Feb 16
• RES 3: 4096.00 High Feb 17
• RES 2: 4054.80 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 4025.09 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3979.75 @ 08:53 GMT Feb 28
• SUP 1: 3947.50 Low Feb 24
• SUP 2: 3901.75 Low Jan 19
• SUP 3: 3787.62 76.4% retracement of the Dec 22 - Feb 2 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 3819.00 Low Jan 6

S&P E-Minis trend conditions remain bearish and short-term signals suggest scope for an extension lower near-term. The contract continues to trade below the 50-day EMA, at 4025.09 and sights are set on 3901.75, the Jan 19 low and 3887.62, the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 22 - Feb 2 bull cycle. On the upside, resistance to watch is 4054.80, the 20-day EMA. Note that a clear break of the 50- and 20-day EMAs would signal a possible reversal.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (J3) Watching Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $89.00 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $86.95 - High Feb 13
• RES 2: $86.21 - High Feb 16
• RES 1: $83.97 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $83.00 @ 08:020 GMT Feb 28
• SUP 1: $80.40/79.10 - Low Feb 23 / 6
• SUP 2: $77.77 - Low Jan 5
• SUP 3: $75.89 - Low Dec 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $74.55 - 0.764 proj of the Nov 7 - Dec 12 - Jan 23 price swing

Brent futures remain above last week’s lows and key short-term support has been defined at $80.40, the Feb 22 low. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and for now, this continues to suggest potential for a continuation lower near-term. A break of the $80.40, would open $79.10, the Feb 6 low. Initial resistance to watch is at $83.97, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would be a bullish development.

WTI TECHS: (J3) Remains Below Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $85.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $82.89 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $80.78 - High Feb 13
• RES 1: $77.97 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $76.31 @ 07:03 GMT Feb 28
• SUP 1: $73.80 - Low Feb 22
• SUP 2: $72.64 - Low Feb 6
• SUP 3: $70.86 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $70.00 - Psychological round number

WTI futures remain above last week’s lows and key short-term support has been defined at $73.80, the Feb 22 low. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and for now, this suggests potential for a continuation lower near-term. A break of the $73.80, would open $72.64, the Feb 6 low. Initial resistance to watch is at $78.06, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would be a bullish development.

GOLD TECHS: Heading South

• RES 4: $1900.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $1890.2 - High Feb 9
• RES 2: $1870.5 - High Feb 14
• RES 1: $1847.6 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1812.0 @ 07:21 GMT Feb 28
• SUP 1: $1806.8 - Low Feb 27
• SUP 2: $1795.5- 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: $1787.3 - 50.0% retracement of the Sep 28 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 4: $1774.0 - Low Dec 15

Trend conditions in Gold remain bearish and price is trading below the 50-day EMA, at $1847.6. The break of this EMA, in mid-February, strengthened the case for bears. Sights are set on the $1800.0 handle and $1787.3, the 50.0% retracement of the uptrend between Sep 28 and Feb 2. On the upside, the 50-day EMA marks the first key short-term resistance. A clear breach of the EMA would ease bearish pressure.

SILVER TECHS: Southbound

• RES 4: $23.606 - High Feb 3
• RES 3: $23.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $22.398 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $21.931 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $20.545 @ 08:54 GMT Feb 28
• SUP 1: $20.265 - 61.8% retracement of the Sep 1 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 2: $20.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 3: $19.416 - Low Nov 4
• SUP 4: $19.232 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Feb 2 bull leg

The sharp sell-off in Silver accelerated last week and the metal has started this week on a bearish note. The move lower exposes $20.265 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a test and break of the $20.00 handle. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is at $21.931, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA intersects at $22.398. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.