MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bund Pullback Exposes Key Support
Price Signal Summary – Bund Pullback Exposes Key Support
- The uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the pullback Thursday appears to be a correction. The contract also traded to a fresh cycle high yesterday, reinforcing a bullish theme. Recent gains have resulted in a break of a key resistance at 5333.50, the Apr 1 high. A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the recent pullback appears to be a correction - for now. The contract has recently cleared key resistance at 5079.00, the Apr 2 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
- A bullish trend condition in GBPUSD remains intact following recent gains and a short-term pullback would be considered corrective. The recent breach of 1.2634, the May 3 high, confirmed a resumption of the current bull cycle and this opened 1.2754. USDJPY is holding on to this week’s gains. The pair has breached resistance at 156.74, the May 14 high and 157.00, 61.8% of the Apr 29 - May 3 sell-off. A continuation higher would open 157.99, the May 1 high. AUDUSD has traded lower this week. The latest pullback appears to be a correction and a bullish condition remains intact following recent gains. The pair has recently breached a key short-term hurdle at 0.6668, the Mar 8 high.
- Gold traded lower yesterday, extending the pullback from its recent high. The trend structure remains bullish and the move lower appears to be a correction - for now. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and the move lower is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. WTI futures have pulled back from their most recent highs. A bearish theme remains intact. Price has recently traded below the 50-day EMA, strengthening a bearish set-up that highlights potential for a deeper correction.
- Bund futures have continued the pullback from the May 16 high of 132.11. The extension lower has exposed the key support and bear trigger at 129.53, the Apr 25 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started late December last year. Gilt futures remain soft following the recent strong sell-off. The contract has this week breached a former support at 97.23, the May 14 low. The break undermines a recent bullish theme and a continuation lower would signal scope for a move towards key support at 95.36.
EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 1.0981 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.0964 High Mar 13
- RES 2: 1.0933 61.8% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 16 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.0895 High May 16
- PRICE: 1.0810 @ 05:54 BST May 24
- SUP 1: 1.0800 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.0789 50-day EMA and a key near-term support
- SUP 3: 1.0724 Low May 3
- SUP 4: 1.0650 Low May 1
The latest move down in EURUSD is considered corrective and for now, appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern that reinforces the uptrend. A bear channel breakout on May 15 - price cleared the top of a channel drawn from the Dec 28 high - confirms a stronger reversal. Sights are on 1.0933 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.0789, the 50-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 1.2894 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.2823 High Mar 14
- RES 2: 1.2803 High Mar 21
- RES 1: 1.2761 High May 22
- PRICE: 1.2691 @ 06:21 BST May 24
- SUP 1: 1.2643/1.2596 Low May 16 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.2510 Low May 14
- SUP 3: 1.2446 Low May 9 and a key near-term support
- SUP 4: 1.2423 Low Apr 24
A bullish trend condition in GBPUSD remains intact following recent gains and a short-term pullback would be considered corrective. The recent breach of 1.2634, the May 3 high, confirmed a resumption of the current bull cycle and this opened 1.2754, 76.4% of the Mar 8 - Apr 22 bear leg. 1.2754 was pierced Wednesday, a clear break would expose 1.2803, the Mar 21 high. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.2596, the 50-day EMA.
EURGBP TECHS: Testing Key Support
- RES 4: 0.8665 61.8% retracement of the Nov 20 - Feb 14 bear cycle
- RES 3: 0.8656 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 0.8645 High Apr 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.8561/8621 20-day EMA / High May 9
- PRICE: 0.8518 @ 06:39 BST May 24
- SUP 1: 0.8500 Key pivot support level
- SUP 2: 0.8498/93 Low Feb 14 / Low Aug 23 2023 and key support
- SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
- SUP 4: 0.8408 Low Aug 24 2023
EURGBP remains soft and the cross is trading closer to its recent lows. The latest impulsive bear leg has exposed a key pivot support at the 0.8500 handle, a level tested numerous times over the past twelve months. Note too that an important support zone also lies between 0.8498, Feb 14 low, and 0.8493, Aug 23 ‘23 low. A clear break of these price points would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance is at 0.8561, the 20-day EMA.
USDJPY TECHS: Holding On To This Week’s Gains
- RES 4: 160.17 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 158.12 76.4% retracement of the Apr 29 - May 3 sell-off
- RES 2: 157.99 High May 1
- RES 1: 157.20 High May 23
- PRICE: 157.09 @ 07:06 BST May 24
- SUP 1: 155.56/153.91 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 152.97 Trendline support drawn from the Dec 28 low
- SUP 3: 151.86 Low May 3
- SUP 4: 150.81 Low Apr 5
USDJPY is holding on to this week’s gains. The pair has breached resistance at 156.74, the May 14 high and 157.00, 61.8% of the Apr 29 - May 3 sell-off. A continuation higher would open 157.99, the May 1 high. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on 153.91, the 50-day EMA, and 152.97, trendline support drawn from the Dec 28 low. Clearance of these two price points would strengthen a bearish threat.
EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 172.46 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 171.56 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 170.65 0.618 proj of the May 3 - 15 - 16 price swing
- RES 1: 170.32 High May 23
- PRICE: 169.78 @ 07:15 BST May 24
- SUP 1: 168.01 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 166.29 Trendline support drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low
- SUP 3: 166.04 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 164.02 Low May 3
EURJPY maintains a firmer short-term tone and is holding on to its latest gains. The medium-term trend structure is bullish and sights are on 171.56, the Apr 29 high and key resistance. Initial supportlies at the 20-day EMA, at 168.01, and remains intact. Key trendline support drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low, is at 166.29. A clear breach of this line would instead highlight a stronger reversal and initially expose support at the 50-day EMA, at 166.04.
AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends
- RES 4: 0.6771 High Jan 3
- RES 3: 0.6751 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6729 High Jan 12
- RES 1: 0.6714 High May 16 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.6599 @ 07:59 BST May 24
- SUP 1: 0.6592 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 0.6576 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.6465/6407 Low May 1 / Low Apr 22
- SUP 4: 0.6363 Low Apr 19 and the bear trigger
AUDUSD has traded lower this week. The latest pullback appears to be a correction and a bullish condition remains intact following recent gains. The pair has recently breached a key short-term hurdle at 0.6668, the Mar 8 high. The break strengthens a bullish theme and a resumption of gains would open 0.6751, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch lies at 0.6576, the 50-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Continues To Find Support
- RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
- RES 1: 1.3748/85 61.8% of the Apr 16 - Mar 16 bear leg / High Apr 30
- PRICE: 1.3733 @ 08:08 BST May 24
- SUP 1: 1.3669/1.3590 20-day EMA / Low May 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
- SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4
USDCAD has recovered from its recent lows and the pair traded higher again yesterday. A bullish trend condition remains intact. Recently, key supports at 1.3642, the 50-day EMA, and 1.3610, the May 3 low, have been pierced. A clear break of both levels would threaten the bullish theme and instead signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (M4) Approaching The Bear Trigger
- RES 4: 132.89 38.2% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 25 bear cycle
- RES 3: 132.55 High Apr 15
- RES 2: 131.47132.11 50-day EMA / High May 16 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 130.88 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 130.05 @ 05:25 BST May 24
- SUP 1: 129.71 Low May 23
- SUP 2: 129.53 Low Apr 25 and a bear trigger
- SUP 3: 129.26 1.618 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
- SUP 4: 128.42 Low Nov 1 ‘23 (cont)
Bund futures have continued the pullback from the May 16 high of 132.11. The extension lower has exposed the key support and bear trigger at 129.53, the Apr 25 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started late December last year. This would open 129.26, a Fibonacci projection. For bulls, clearance of 132.11, is required to reinstate a bullish theme and signal a possible reversal.
BOBL TECHS: (M4) Clears Key Support
- RES 4: 117.880 High Apr 15
- RES 2: 117.620 High Apr 19
- RES 3: 117.242/440 High 50-day EMA / High May 16
- RES 1: 116.806 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 116.190 @ 05:57 BST May 24
- SUP 1: 115.990 Low May 23
- SUP 2: 116.710 Low Feb 29 (cont) and a key support
- SUP 3: 115.752 1.764 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
- SUP 4: 115.410 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
Bobl futures traded sharply lower yesterday and in the process cleared key support and the bear trigger at 116.230, the Apr 30 low. This cancels any recent developing bullish theme and instead confirms a resumption of the downtrend, paving the way for a move towards 115.710, the Feb 29 low (cont) and a key support. Initial resistance is seen at 116.806, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance and a reversal trigger is at 117.440, the May 16 high.
SCHATZ TECHS: (M4) Heading South
- RES 4: 105.790 High Mar 25 and key resistance
- RES 3: 105.680 High Apr 12
- RES 2: 105.424 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 105.221/105.395 20-day EMA / High May 3
- PRICE: 104.970 @ 06:13 BST May 24
- SUP 1: 104.910 Low May 23
- SUP 2: 104.800 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 25 price swing
- SUP 3: 104.745 Low Sep 26 2023 (cont) and a key support
- SUP 4: 104.683 2.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 25 price swing
The trend direction in Schatz futures remains down and this was confirmed yesterday following a sharp sell-off that resulted in the break of key support and a bear trigger at 105.045, the Apr 30 low. The move lower paves the way for an extension towards 104.800, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode set-up highlighting a clear downtrend. Initial firm resistance is seen at 105.221, the 20-day EMA.
GILT TECHS: (M4) Remains Soft
- RES 4: 99.37 High Apr 4
- RES 3: 99.19 76.4% of the Mar 12 - Apr 25 bear leg
- RES 2: 99.10 High Apr 10
- RES 1: 97.67/98.76 50-day EMA / High May 16 and bull trigger
- PRICE: 96.69 @ Close May 23
- SUP 1: 96.58 Low May 23
- SUP 2: 96.16 76.4% of the Apr 25 - May 16 rally
- SUP 3: 95.36 Low Apr 25 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 94.86 2.236 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing
Gilt futures remain soft following the recent strong sell-off. The contract has this week breached a former support at 97.23, the May 14 low. The break undermines a recent bullish theme and a continuation lower would signal scope for a move towards key support at 95.36, the Apr 25 low. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 97.67, the 50-day EMA. A break of key resistance at 98.76, the May 16 high, is required to reinstate a bullish theme.
BTP TECHS: (M4) Watching Support
- RES 4: 120.28 High Mar 14 and the bull rally
- RES 3: 119.55 High Mar 27
- RES 2: 119.10 High Apr 10 and a key near-term resistance
- RES 1: 119.00 High May 16
- PRICE: 117.12 @ Close May 23
- SUP 1: 116.94/115.76 Low May 14 / Low Apr 25 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 115.70 Low Dec 8 ‘23 (cont)
- SUP 3: 114.74 1.236 proj of the Dec 27 - Feb 22 - Mar 14 price swing
- SUP 4: 114.09 1.382 proj of the Dec 27 - Feb 22 - Mar 14 price swing
BTP futures rallied on May 15 and traded above 118.61, May 6 high. This exposed a more important resistance at 119.10, the Apr 10 high, that remains intact for now. Clearance of it would strengthen a bullish theme and open the key resistance at 120.28, the Mar 14 high. On the downside, support to watch is 116.94, the May 15 low. A break would be a bearish development.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: 5170.50 1.50 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
- RES 3: 5162.00 High Nov 2000
- RES 2: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
- RES 1: 5110.00 High May 16 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 5016.00 @ 06:28 BST May 24
- SUP 1: 4952.10 50- day EMA
- SUP 2: 4862.00 Low Apr 25
- SUP 3: 4762.00 Low Apr 19 and a reversal trigger
- SUP 4: 4711.00 Low Feb 19
A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the recent pullback appears to be a correction - for now. The contract has recently cleared key resistance at 5079.00, the Apr 2 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. This opens 5127.70 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key trend support is 4762.00, the Apr 19 low. Support at the 20-day EMA has been pierced. The next level to watch is 4952.10, the 50-day EMA.
E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Fresh High Reinforces The Bullish Condition
- RES 4: 5417.75 2.00 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
- RES 3: 5400.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 5372.73 1.764 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
- RES 1: 5368.25 High May 23
- PRICE: 5328.50 @ 14:52 BST May 23
- SUP 1: 5252.44 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5195.19 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 5099.25 Low May 3
- SUP 4: 5036.25 Low May 2
The uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the pullback Thursday appears to be a correction. The contract also traded to a fresh cycle high yesterday, reinforcing a bullish theme. Recent gains have resulted in a break of a key resistance at 5333.50, the Apr 1 high. This confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and has opened 5372.73, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a clear uptrend. Initial support is at 5252.44, the 20-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (N4) Bears Remain In The Driver's Seat
- RES 4: $94.00 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
- RES 3: $92.09 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
- RES 2: $91.18 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $84.21/88.64 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 26
- PRICE: $81.48 @ 07:08 BST May 24
- SUP 1: $80.93 - Low May 23
- SUP 2: $80.24 - 61.8% retracement of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $75.91 - Low Feb 5
- SUP 4: $73.47 - Low Dec 13 and a key support
Brent futures have traded lower this week. The trend condition is unchanged and remains bearish. Price has recently cleared the 50-day EMA and the clear breach of this average signals scope for a deeper correction towards $80.24, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $91.18, the Apr 12 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend. Initial firm resistance is $88.64, Apr 26 high.
WTI TECHS: (N4) Trend Condition Remains Bearish
- RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
- RES 3: $86.93 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
- RES 2: $83.63/86.16 - High Apr 26 / 12 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $80.11 - High May 20
- PRICE: $76.96 @ 07:11 BST May 24
- SUP 1: $76.36 - Low May 15
- SUP 2: $75.64 - Low Mar 11
- SUP 3: $73.24 - 76.4% retracement of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull leg
- SUP 4: $71.33 - Low Feb 5
WTI futures have pulled back from their most recent highs. A bearish theme remains intact. Price has recently traded below the 50-day EMA, strengthening a bearish set-up that highlights potential for a deeper correction. Scope is seen for a move to $75.64, the Mar 11 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $86.16, the Apr 12 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is at $83.63, the Apr 26 high.
GOLD TECHS: Pullback Appears To Be A Correction
- RES 4: $2528.4 - 3.00 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
- RES 3: $2500.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: $2481.5 - 2.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
- RES 1: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
- PRICE: $2333.6 @ 05:48 BST May 24
- SUP 1: $2398.5 - 50- day EMA
- SUP 2: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support
- SUP 3: $2187.4 - Low Mar 28
- SUP 4: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support
Gold traded lower yesterday, extending the pullback from its recent high. The trend structure remains bullish and the move lower appears to be a correction - for now. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and the move lower is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. A resumption of gains would open $2452.5 next, a Fibonacci projection. The 50-day EMA, at $2298.5, represents a key support. A clear break of it would be bearish.
SILVER TECHS: Remains Above Its Key Support Zone
- RES 4: $35.745 - 1.236 proj of Jan 22 - Apr 12 - Nov 13 price swing
- RES 3: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg
- RES 2: $33.887 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - Nov 13 price swing
- RES 1: $32.518 - High May 20
- PRICE: $30.4760 @ 08:11 BST May 24
- SUP 1: $29.797 - High Apr 12 and a recent breakout level
- SUP 2: $29.177 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $27.569/26.018 - 50-day EMA / Low May 2
- SUP 4: $24.328 - Low Mar 27
Silver maintains a bullish theme and the latest pullback appears to be a correction, that is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains resulted in a break of resistance at $29.797, the Apr 12 high. The breach confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and has opened $33.887 next, a Fibonacci projection. A key support zone to watch lies between $29.177-27.569, the 20- and 50-day EMA values.