MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bund S/T Trend Remains Higher

Price Signal Summary – Bund S/T Trend Remains Higher

• S&P E-Minis are consolidating and remain below recent highs. Short-term trend conditions are bullish. Continued gains would confirm a resumption of the current bull cycle and maintain the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. EUROSTOXX 50 futures trend conditions remain bullish and yesterday’s pullback is considered corrective. Price has recently cleared the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 6 - Jul 5 downleg, at 3722.40.
• EURUSD is broadly unchanged and continues to consolidate just above 1.0200. Price action remains in a range. The S/T outlook is bullish though and the key near-term support is unchanged at 1.0097, Jul 27 low. EURGBP traded higher Tuesday and is holding on to its latest gains since bouncing off 0.8340, the Aug 2 low. The broader outlook is bearish and gains are considered corrective. AUDUSD remains below the Aug 1 high of 0.7047. The short-term outlook is bullish and for now, the latest pullback is considered corrective. A resumption of strength and a break of resistance at 0.7047, Aug 1 high, would strengthen bullish conditions.
• Gold maintains a firmer tone and is trading at its recent highs. The yellow metal has breached the 50-day EMA and attention is on trendline resistance at $1794.6. WTI futures remain vulnerable, and a doji candle pattern Tuesday highlights the possible end of the recent 3-day bounce. A resumption of weakness would expose $87.01, the Aug 5 low and the short-term bear trigger.
• The Bund futures outlook is unchanged and the S/T trend direction is up. The latest pullback is considered corrective. A fresh high last week reinforced the bull theme and confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. MA studies are in a bull mode condition. Gilt futures remain above last week’s 116.44 low. The short-term outlook is bullish. Moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up and gains since Jun 16 have established a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: 1.0449 High Jul 5
• RES 3: 1.0352 Bull channel resistance drawn from the Feb 10 high
• RES 2: 1.0331 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.0294 High Aug 2
• PRICE: 1.0214@ 06:15 BST Aug 10
• SUP 1: 1.0097 Low Aug 27 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 1.0064/0.9952 Low Jul 18 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.9944 1.618 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.9883 1.764 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing

EURUSD is broadly unchanged and continues to consolidate just above 1.0200. Price action remains in a range. The S/T outlook is bullish though and the key near-term support is unchanged at 1.0097, Jul 27 low. A resumption of gains would signal scope for an extension higher within the bull channel - the top is at 1.0352 and marks a key resistance. Weakness below 1.0097 would alter the picture and expose parity and 0.9952, Jul 14 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Remains Below Recent Highs

• RES 4: 1.2518 High Jun 6
• RES 3: 1.2406 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2332 High Jun 27
• RES 1: 1.2194/2293 50-day EMA / High Aug 01
• PRICE: 1.2081 @ 06:21 BST Aug 10
• SUP 1: 1.2004 Low Aug 5
• SUP 2: 1.1961 Low Jul 25
• SUP 3: 1.1890/1760 Low Jul 21 / Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.1673 1.00 proj of the May 27 - Jun 14 - 16 price swing

GBPUSD is consolidating and price remains below its recent highs. A bullish short-term theme remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Price has recently traded above the 50-day EMA. This reinforced short-term bullish conditions and has opened 1.2332, the Jun 27 high. Potential is also seen for a climb towards 1.2406, the Jun 16 high and the next key key resistance. Initial support to watch is 1.2004, Aug 5 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Holding On To Recent Gains

• RES 4: 0.8627 High Jul 4
• RES 3: 0.8585 High Jul 21 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8476 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8462 High Aug 9
• PRICE: 0.8455 @ 06:32 BST Aug 10
• SUP 1: 0.8340 Low Aug 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8313 Low Apr 22
• SUP 3: 0.8233 2.0% 10-dma envelope and low Apr 14
• SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 and a key support

EURGBP traded higher Tuesday and is holding on to its latest gains since bouncing off 0.8340, the Aug 2 low. The broader outlook is bearish and gains are considered corrective. Recent weakness reinforced a bearish theme and established a price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in bear mode too. A continuation lower would open 0.8313, Apr 22 low. Initial firm resistance is 0.8476, the 50-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Consolidating At Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 137.46 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 137.31 Former channel support drawn from the Mar 4 low
• RES 2: 136.58 High Jul 28
• RES 1: 135.96 61.8% retracement of the Jul 14 - Aug 2 downleg
• PRICE: 134.95 @ 06:43 BST Aug 10
• SUP 1: 132.52 Low Aug 5
• SUP 2: 130.41/130.00 Low Aug 2 / Round number support
• SUP 3: 129.51 Low Jun 2
• SUP 4: 128.64 Low Jun 1

USDJPY is consolidating and the pair remains above 130.41, Aug 2 low. Recent gains are considered corrective. A bearish theme remains in place following recent weakness that resulted in the break of a number of important technical chart points. On Jul 28, a bull channel breakout, drawn from the Mar 4 low, signalled a reversal. Support at 131.50, Jun 16 low has also been cleared. The next resistance to watch is 135.96, a Fibonacci retracement.

EURJPY TECHS: Monitoring Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 140.07 High Jul 25
• RES 3: 139.41 High Jul 28
• RES 2: 138.50 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 138.32 High Aug 9
• PRICE: 137.91 @ 06:53 BST Aug 10
• SUP 1: 135.81 Low Aug 5
• SUP 2: 134.84/133.40 Low Aug 3 / 2 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 132.66 Low May 12 and a key support
• SUP 4: 131.99 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - Jun 28 bull leg

EURJPY traded higher again Tuesday and the cross is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The recovery from 133.40, Aug 2 low, is likely a correction if moving average studies are correct in highlighting a downtrend. The next resistance to watch is 138.50, the 50-day EMA. A reversal lower and a breach of 133.40 would resume the bear cycle and open 132.66, May 12 low. Clearance of the 50-day EMA would suggest scope for a stronger recovery.

AUDUSD TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.7141 76.4% retracement of the Jun 3 - Jul 14 downleg
• RES 3: 0.7069 High Jun 16
• RES 2: 0.7047/53 High Aug 1 / 61.8% of the Jun 3 - Jul 14 downleg
• RES 1: 0.7009 High Aug 8
• PRICE: 0.6956 @ 06:59 BST Aug 10
• SUP 1: 0.6870 Low Aug 5
• SUP 2: 0.6786 Low Jul 18
• SUP 3: 0.6682 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing

AUDUSD remains below the Aug 1 high of 0.7047. The short-term outlook is bullish and for now, the latest pullback is considered corrective. A resumption of strength and a break of resistance at 0.7047, Aug 1 high, would strengthen bullish conditions. This would open the Jun 16 high at 0.7069. Further out there is scope for a climb towards 0.7141, a Fibonacci retracement. Support to watch is at 0.6870, Aug 5 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 1.3224 High Jul 14 and key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3126/35 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band / High Jul 15
• RES 2: 1.3038 High Jul 18
• RES 1: 1.2985 High Aug 5
• PRICE: 1.2879 @ 08:06 BST Aug 10
• SUP 1: 1.2818 Low Aug 4
• SUP 2: 1.2767/63 Low Aug 01 / Low Jun 13
• SUP 3: 1.2685 76.4% retracement of the Jun 8 - Jul 14 upleg
• SUP 4: 1.2596 2.0% 10-dma envelope

The USDCAD outlook remains bearish, despite the recent recovery from 1.2767, Aug 1 low. The Jun 28 low, at 1.2819, has recently been pierced. A resumption of weakness and a clear break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and open 1.2763, Jun 13 low and 1.2685, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, a breach of last Friday’s 1.2985 high is required to strengthen the case for bulls.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 161.38 2.00 projection of the Jun 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 160.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 159.79 High Apr 4 (cont)
• RES 1: 158.33/159.70 High Aug 3 / 2 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 156.36 @ 05:25 BST Aug 10
• SUP 1: 155.72/155.16 Low Aug 5 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 153.36 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 149.69 Low Jul 21 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 148.24 Low Jul 1

The Bund futures outlook is unchanged and the S/T trend direction is up. The latest pullback is considered corrective. A fresh high last week reinforced the bull theme and confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. MA studies are in a bull mode condition. The focus is on 159.79 next, Apr 4 high (cont). Key trend support has been defined at 149.69, Jul 21 low. A break is required to signal a potential top. Initial firm support is 155.16, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 130.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 129.950 2.00 projection of the Jun 16 -24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 129.001 1.764 projection of the Jun 16 -24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 128.060/128.760 High Aug 3 / 2 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 127.000 @ 05:30 BST Aug 10
• SUP 1: 126.697/450 20-day EMA / Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: 125.913 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 124.030 Low Jul 21 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 4: 123.010 Low Jun 30

Bobl futures remain in an uptrend and short-term dips are still considered corrective. Last week’s high print reinforced current trend conditions. The move higher confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 129.001 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is 124.030, Jul 21 low. A break would signal a reversal. Initial firm support is 126.450, Jul 28 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Watching Support

• RES 4: 110.855 High Apr 4 (cont)
• RES 3: 110.500 High May 26 (cont)
• RES 2: 110.412 1.50 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 110.100/380 High Aug 3 / Aug 2 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 109.785 @ 05:36 BST Aug 10
• SUP 1: 109.670 Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: 109.604 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 109.350 Low Jul 22
• SUP 4: 108.950 Low Jul 21 and a key support

Schatz futures are unchanged and remain below recent highs. The recent move lower is likely a correction and trend conditions still appear bullish. Fresh highs on Aug 2, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 110.412 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is unchanged at 108.950, the Jul 21 low. Initial firm support is seen at 109.670.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Remains Above Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 121.88 High Apr 5 (cont)
• RES 3: 121.07 High May 12 (cont)
• RES 2: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 118.88/119.84 High Aug 4 / 2 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 117.26 @ Close Aug 9
• SUP 1: 116.61/41 Trendline drawn from the Jun 16 low / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 114.86 50.0% retracement of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 upleg
• SUP 3: 114.08 Low Jul 8 and a key support
• SUP 4: 113.69 61.8% retracement of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 upleg

Gilt futures remain above last week’s 116.44 low. The short-term outlook is bullish. Moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up and gains since Jun 16 have established a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Key trend support is at 114.08, the Jul 8 low. The next firm support zone to watch is 116.41, the 50-day EMA and 116.61, trendline support drawn from the Jun 16 low. A resumption of gains would open 119.84, the bull trigger.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 131.61 High Apr 29 (cont)
• RES 3: 131.24 High May 12 (cont)
• RES 2: 130.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 129.27 High Aug 2
• PRICE: 127.41 @ Close Aug 9
• SUP 1: 126.40/125.15 Low Aug 1 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 122.81/119.57 Low Jul 28 / Low Jul 21 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 118.60 Low Jun 22
• SUP 4: 115.72 Low Jun 16

The BTP futures trend condition remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The break on Jul 29 of key resistance at 126.41, Jul 1 high, reinforces conditions for bulls and highlights a broader bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows - the definition of an uptrend. Attention is on the 130.00 handle next. Initial firm support lies at 125.06, the 50-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 3902.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 3855.00 High Apr 21
• RES 2: 3840.00 High Jun 6 and key resistance
• RES 1: 3811.00 High Jun 8
• PRICE: 3709.00 @ 05:47 BST Aug 10
• SUP 1: 3658.00 Low Aug 2
• SUP 2: 3607.80/3553.00 50-day EMA / Low Jul 26
• SUP 3: 3467.00 Low Jul 18 / 19
• SUP 4: 3343.00 Low Jul 5 and the bear trigger

EUROSTOXX 50 futures trend conditions remain bullish and yesterday’s pullback is considered corrective. Price has recently cleared the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 6 - Jul 5 downleg, at 3722.40. The breach opens 3811.00 next, the Jun 8 high, ahead of 3840.00, the Jun 6 high. Key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at 3343.00, the Jul 5 low. Initial firm support to watch is 3607.80, the 50-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Bullish Outlook Despite Pullback

• RES 4: 4345.75 2.00 proj of the Jun 17 - 28 - Jul 14 price swing
• RES 3: 4306.50 High May 4
• RES 2: 4204.75 High May 31 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 4188.00 High Aug 8
• PRICE: 4118.75 @ 06:53 BST Aug 10
• SUP 1: 4008.43/3913.25 50-day EMA / Low Jul 26 and a key support
• SUP 2: 3820.25 Low Jul 18
• SUP 3: 3723.75 Low Jul 14
• SUP 4: 3639.00 Low Jun 17 and a bear trigger

S&P E-Minis are consolidating and remain below recent highs. Short-term trend conditions are bullish. Continued gains would confirm a resumption of the current bull cycle and maintain the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 4204.75 next, May 31 high and the next key resistance. On the downside, initial trend support is at 3913.25, the Jul 26 low. The 50-day EMA intersects at 4008.43.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V2) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: $112.92 - High Jun 29
• RES 3: $110.72 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $106.50 - High Jul 29 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $99.30/101.97 - 20- and 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $95.69 @ 07:06 BST Aug 10
• SUP 1: $92.78 - Low Aug 5
• SUP 2: $91.22 - Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $90.00 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $88.31 - Low Mar 9 and a key support

Brent futures remain vulnerable. The contract traded lower last week, extending the pullback from $106.50, the Jul 29 high. The move lower was the result of a failure to hold on to gains above the 50-day EMA - a key pivot resistance. Yesterday’s price pattern is a doji candle and this signals the end of the recent 3-day corrective bounce. A resumption of weakness would open $91.22, Jul 14 low. Key resistance is unchanged at $106.50, Jul 29 high.

WTI TECHS: (U2) Bearish Doji Candle

• RES 4: $111.14 - High Jun 29
• RES 3: $108.28 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $101.88 - High Jul 29 and key resistance
• RES 1: $94.67/98.37 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: $89.78 @ 06:59 BST Aug 10
• SUP 1: $87.01 - Low Aug 5
• SUP 2: $85.37 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: $83.51 - 1.50 projection of the Jun 8 - 22 - 29 price swing
• SUP 4: $81.34 - 1.618 projection of the Jun 8 - 22 - 29 price swing

WTI futures remain vulnerable and a doji candle pattern Tuesday highlights the possible end of the recent 3-day bounce. A resumption of weakness would expose $87.01, the Aug 5 low and the short-term bear trigger. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open $85.37, the Mar 15 low. Key resistance has been defined at $101.88, Jul 29 high. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bullish theme.

GOLD TECHS: Pierces Trendline Resistance

• RES 4: $1847.9 - High Jun 22
• RES 3: $1825.1 - High Jun 30
• RES 2: $1800.5 - High Aug 9
• RES 1: $1794.6 - Trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high
• PRICE: $1788.3 @ 07:25 BST Aug 10
• SUP 1: $1762.8/54.4 - 20-day EMA / Low Aug 3
• SUP 2: $1711.7/1681.0 - Low Jul 27 / 21
• SUP 3: $1680.5 - 1.764 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 4: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 2021

Gold maintains a firmer tone and is trading at its recent highs. The yellow metal has breached the 50-day EMA and attention is on trendline resistance at $1794.6. The line was pierced yesterday, a clear break would represent an important technical breach and highlight a stronger reversal of the 5-month downtrend. On the downside, initial firm support lies at $1754.4 the Aug 3 low. Key support is unchanged at $1681.0.

SILVER TECHS: Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 3: $21.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 1: $20.742 - High Aug 8
• PRICE: $20.424 @ 08:08 BST Aug 10
• SUP 1: $19.551/062 - Low Aug 5 / Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: $18.146/18.000 - Low Jul 14 / Round number support
• SUP 3: $17.312 - 3.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 4: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020

Silver started the week on a firmer note and traded higher Monday. The rally resulted in a break of resistance at $20.508, the Aug 2 high. This confirms a resumption of the bull leg that started Jul 14 and the metal has established a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. The focus is on $21.540, Jun 27 high. On the downside, initial key support has been defined at $19.551, the Aug 5 low.