MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bund Upside Break Threatens Bearish Theme

Price Signal Summary – Bund Upside Break Threatens Bearish Theme

• The latest recovery in the E-mini S&P contract has resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMA values. This signals potential for a stronger short-term recovery. Attention is on resistance at 4493.98, the base of a bull channel that was breached last week. A bearish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains present, however, for now a corrective cycle remains in play and the contract is trading higher. Resistance to watch is 4338.70, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would highlight a stronger bullish theme and signal scope for a climb.
• GBPUSD traded lower Wednesday and showed at a new pullback low of 1.2615. The pair has pierced support at 1.2621, the Aug 14 low and the short-term bear trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.2591. The uptrend in USDJPY remains intact despite Wednesday’s weakness - a short-term pullback is considered corrective. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of 145.07, the Jun 30 high. The AUDUSD trend remains bearish and the latest recovery appears to be a correction. Firm resistance is seen at the 20-day EMA - at 0.6518. The 50-day EMA is at 0.6604. The pair has recently breached support at 0.6458, May 31 low and a bear trigger.
• The outlook in Gold remains bearish, however, a short-term correction has resulted in a recovery this week. The yellow metal is through resistance at the 20-day EMA and attention turns to the 50-day EMA, at $1932.0. A clear break of this average would strengthen the current bull cycle. The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact, however, a corrective cycle is in play for now. Yesterday’s move lower resulted in a print below support at $78.33, the Aug 3 low.
• A strong bounce in Bund futures Wednesday resulted in a break of resistance at the 20- and 50-day EMA values. The break higher threatens the recent bearish theme and instead signals scope for a stronger recovery, potentially towards 133.45. A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact, however, a strong rally yesterday suggests the contract remains in a short-term corrective cycle. Price has traded through the 20-day EMA. A continuation higher would signal scope for a stronger recovery and open 94.86.

EURUSD TECHS: Approaching The Channel Base

• RES 4: 1.1150 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 1.1065 High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.1005 High AUg 11
• RES 1: 1.0933 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0868 @ 05:52 BST Aug 24
• SUP 1: 1.0803 Low Aug 23
• SUP 2: 1.0788 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 1.0767 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 15 low
• SUP 4: 1.0733 Low Jun 12

The trend needle in EURUSD continues to point south and Wednesday’s move lower reinforces the current bearish condition. The pair has traded to fresh cycle low this week and has cleared support at 1.0834, the Aug 22 low. Price continues to weaken inside a bull channel drawn from the Mar 15 low. The base lies at 1.0767 and represents the next objective and a key support. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.0933, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Pierces Support

• RES 4: 1.3045 High Jul 19
• RES 3: 1.2996 High Jul 27 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2887 High Jul 28
• RES 1: 1.2819 High Aug 10 and a reversal trigger
• PRICE: 1.2723 @ 06:19 BST Aug 24
• SUP 1: 1.2615 Low Aug 23
• SUP 2: 1.2591 Low Jun 29 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.2480 1.50 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.2439 1.618 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing

GBPUSD traded lower Wednesday and showed at a new pullback low of 1.2615. The pair has pierced support at 1.2621, the Aug 14 low and the short-term bear trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.2591, the Jun 29 low and an important support. On the upside, key short-term resistance is unchanged at 1.2819, the Aug 19 high. Clearance of this level would signal a possible reversal.

EURGBP TECHS: Watching Resistance At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.8701 High Jul 19 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8651/8669 100-dma / High Aug 11
• RES 2: 0.8596 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8573 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8547 @ 06:33 BST Aug 24
• SUP 1: 0.8493 Low Aug 23
• SUP 2: 0.8482 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8471 Low Aug 29 2022
• SUP 4: 0.8454 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 2022 bull leg

EURGBP traded lower Wednesday, breaching support at 0.8504, the Jull 11 low, before rebounding. The break lower reinforces a bearish theme and a resumption of weakness would confirm a continuation of the medium-term downtrend and signal scope for weakness towards 0.8454, a Fibonacci retracement point. For now, gains are considered corrective. Resistance to watch is 0.8573, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 148.40 High Nov 4 2022
• RES 3: 147.49 2.00 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 146.93 High Nov 8 2022
• RES 1: 146.56 High Aug 17 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 145.17 @ 06:47 BST Aug 24
• SUP 1: 144.54 Low Aug 23
• SUP 2: 144.24 20 EMA
• SUP 3: 143.00 Low Aug 9
• SUP 4: 142.44 50-day EMA

The uptrend in USDJPY remains intact despite Wednesday’s weakness - a short-term pullback is considered corrective. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of 145.07, the Jun 30 high. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. MA studies are in a bull mode condition, highlighting an uptrend. The focus is on 147.49, a Fibonacci projection. Support is at 144.24, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Medium-Term Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 160.66 2.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 160.00 Psychological handle
• RES 2: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 159.49 High Aug 22
• PRICE: 157.63 @ 07:21 BST Aug 24
• SUP 1: 156.87 Low Aug 23
• SUP 2: 155.95 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 154.50 61.8% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 22 rally
• SUP 4: 151.42 Low Jul 28 and key support

The current EURJPY uptrend remains intact and this week’s pullback is considered corrective. Key resistance at 158.05, Jul 21 high, has recently been cleared, confirming a resumption of the M/T uptrend. Sights are on 159.92, a Fibonacci projection ahead of the 160.00 psychological handle. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition, reflecting a rising trend. On the downside, the next support to watch is 155.95, the 50-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 0.6723 High Aug 1
• RES 3: 0.6604 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.6518 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.6480 High Aug 16
• PRICE: 0.6467 @ 08:02 BST Aug 24
• SUP 1: 0.6365 Low Aug 17 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6285 Low Nov 4 2022
• SUP 3: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing

The AUDUSD trend remains bearish and the latest recovery appears to be a correction. Firm resistance is seen at the 20-day EMA - at 0.6518. The 50-day EMA is at 0.6604. The pair has recently breached support at 0.6458, May 31 low and a bear trigger. This strengthens the downtrend and paves the way for weakness towards 0.6285 next, the Nov 4 2022 low. On the upside, clearance of the 20-day EMA would suggest scope for a stronger correction.

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.3805 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 1.3733 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 2022 high
• RES 2: 1.3655 High May 26 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3604 High Aug 23
• PRICE: 1.3529 @ 08:08 BST Aug 24
• SUP 1: 1.3496 Low Aug 21
• SUP 2: 1.3437 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3373 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.3266 Low Aug 2

USDCAD traded higher Wednesday, before reversing into the close. The fresh cycle high yesterday reinforces the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A clear break of 1.3600 would expose 1.3655, May 26 high. Note that a trendline resistance, drawn from the Oct 13 2022 high, is at 1.3733 and represents an objective further out. Support to watch is 1.3446, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Clears The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 134.88 High Jul 19 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 134.01 High Jul 24
• RES 2: 133.92 High Jul 27
• RES 1: 133.45 High Aug 8 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 132.73 @ 05:19 BST Aug 24
• SUP 1: 131.85/20 20-day EMA / Low Aug 23
• SUP 2: 130.14 Low Aug 15
• SUP 3: 130.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 129.69 1.00 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing

A strong bounce in Bund futures Wednesday resulted in a break of resistance at the 20- and 50-day EMA values. The break higher threatens the recent bearish theme and instead signals scope for a stronger recovery, potentially towards 133.45, the Aug 8 high and a key resistance. Initial firm support lies at yesterday’s low of 131.20. A reversal lower and a break of this level would be seen as a bearish development.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Strong Rally

• RES 4: 116.860 High Jun 13
• RES 3: 116.600 High Jul 19 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 116.340 High Aug 8
• RES 1: 116.260 Intraday high
• PRICE: 116.150 @ 08:16 BST Aug 24
• SUP 1: 115.498/210 20-day EMA / Low Aug 23
• SUP 2: 114.960 Low Aug 21
• SUP 3: 114.710 Low Aug 15
• SUP 4: 114.550 Low Jul 6 and a key support

Bobl futures rallied sharply higher yesterday. The climb resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMA values. This highlights a stronger short-term reversal and a continuation higher would signal scope for gains towards 116.340, the Aug 8 high. Moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant downtrend and suggest that current gains are a correction. A break below yesterday’s low of 115.210, would be a bearish development.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Corrective Bounce Extends

• RES 4: 105.325 High Jun 14
• RES 3: 105.295 High Aug 8 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 105.255 High Aug 9
• RES 1: 105.230 Intraday high
• PRICE: 105.190 @ 08:17 BST Aug 24
• SUP 1: 104.905/760 Low Aug 23 / 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 104.741 76.4% retracement of the Jul 6 - Aug 8 bull leg
• SUP 3: 104.620/104.570 Low Jul 11 / 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 104.470 2.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Schatz futures rallied Wednesday resulting in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The break higher signals scope for a stronger short-term recovery and an extension would expose the next key resistance at 105.295, the Aug 8 high. Moving average studies continue to highlight a downtrend and this suggests current gains are part of a correction. Support to watch lies at 104.905, yesterday’s low. A break would be bearish.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 96.81 High Juul 27
• RES 3: 96.27 76.4% retracement of the Jul 19 - Aug 17 bear leg
• RES 2: 95.82 High Aug 10 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 94.86 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 94.02 @ Close Aug 24
• SUP 1: 92.38/91.19 Low Aug 23 / Low Aug 17 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 90.70 1.236 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 90.38 Low Oct 12 2022 (cont) and a major support
• SUP 4: 90.10 1.382 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 10 price swing

A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact, however, a strong rally yesterday suggests the contract remains in a short-term corrective cycle. Price has traded through the 20-day EMA. A continuation higher would signal scope for a stronger recovery and open 94.86, the 50-day EMA. Moving average studies continue to highlight a downtrend, the bear trigger has been defined at 91.19, the Aug 17 low.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Strong Reversal

• RES 4: 118.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 117.48/60 High Jul 19 / Jun 26 and key resistance
• RES 2: 116.86 High Jul 24
• RES 1: 116.02 High Aug 9
• PRICE: 115.35 @ Close Aug 23
• SUP 1: 114.11/112.95 Low Aug 23 / Low Jul 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 112.48 Low May 29
• SUP 3: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support
• SUP 4: 111.05 1.382 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - Jul 19 price swing

A strong rally in BTP futures yesterday resulted in a break above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This highlights a stronger short-term bull cycle and a continuation higher would signal scope for gains towards 116.02, the Aug 9 high. Yesterday’s low of 114.11 marks the first key short-term support. A reversal and a break of this level would be a bearish development and would expose 112.95, the Jul 11 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 4539.20 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jul 3 - 7 price swing (cont)
• RES 3: 4515.00 High Nov / Dec 2007 (cont)
• RES 2: 4513.00 High Jul 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 1:4338.70/4420.00 50-day EMA / High Aug 10
• PRICE: 4312.00 @ 06:45 BST Aug 24
• SUP 1: 4247.00/4187.00 Low Aug 22 / 18 and key support
• SUP 2: 4177.40 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull leg
• SUP 3: 4122.00 Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: 4098.10 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull leg

A bearish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains present, however, for now a corrective cycle remains in play and the contract is trading higher. Resistance to watch is 4338.70, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would highlight a stronger bullish theme and signal scope for a climb, potentially towards 4420.00, the Aug 10 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 4187.00, the Aug 8 low.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Approaching The Former Bull Channel Base

• RES 4: 4593.50/4634.50 High Aug 2 / Jul 27 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4560.75 High Aug 4
• RES 2: 4517.75 High Aug 15
• RES 1: 4493.98 Former bull channel base drawn from Mar 13
• PRICE: 4479.00 @ 05:55 BST Aug 24
• SUP 1: 4399.50/4350.00 Low Aug 23 / 18 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4344.28 38.2% retracement of the Mar 13 - Jul 27 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 4305.75 Low Jun 8
• SUP 4: 4254.62 50.0% retracement of the Mar 13 - Jul 27 bull cycle

The latest recovery in the E-mini S&P contract has resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMA values. This signals potential for a stronger short-term recovery. Attention is on resistance at 4493.98, the base of a bull channel that was breached last week. The channel is drawn from the Mar 13 low. Clearance of this level would open 4517.75, the Aug 15 high. Support to watch lies at 4399.50, yesterday’s low. A break would be bearish.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V3) Watching Support

• RES 4: $92.10 - 1.50 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 18 price swing
• RES 3: $90.63 - High Nov 11 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $85.86/88.10 - High Aug 21 / 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $83.15 @ 06:44 BST Aug 24
• SUP 1: $81.68 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $78.10 - Low Jul 18 and key support
• SUP 3: $74.78 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 4: $72.04 - Low Jun 28

Brent futures traded lower yesterday and pierced support at $82.36, the Aug 3 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a stronger short-term reversal and signal scope for a deeper retracement. Note too that the 50-day EMA lies at $81.68 and represents an important support. For bulls, resistance to watch is $85.86, the Aug 21 high. A break would signal a resumption of bullish activity.

WTI TECHS: (V3) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $86.62 - 1.382 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 17 price swing
• RES 2: $85.24 - 1.236 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 17 price swing
• RES 1: $81.75/84.16 - High Aug 21 / 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $78.73 @ 07:00 BST Aug 24
• SUP 1: $77.42 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $73.60 - Low Jul 17
• SUP 3: $6972 - Low Jul 3
• SUP 4: $66.83 - Low Jun 12 and key support

The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact, however, a corrective cycle is in play for now. Yesterday’s move lower resulted in a print below support at $78.33, the Aug 3 low. A clear break of this support would highlight a stronger bear cycle and pave the way for a deeper retracement. Note that a key support lies at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $77.42. Initial resistance to watch is $81.75, a break would be a bullish development.

GOLD TECHS: Has Breached The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: $1987.5 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $1972.4 - High Jul 31
• RES 2: $1946.8 - High Aug 4
• RES 1: $1932.0 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1921.7 @ 07:16 BST Aug 24
• SUP 1: $1897.7/1884.9 - Low Aug 23 / 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1871.6 - Low Mar 13
• SUP 3: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull leg
• SUP 4: $1827.8 - Low Mar 10

The outlook in Gold remains bearish, however, a short-term correction has resulted in a recovery this week. The yellow metal is through resistance at the 20-day EMA and attention turns to the 50-day EMA, at $1932.0. A clear break of this average would strengthen the current bull cycle. For bears, moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant downtrend. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $1884.9, the Aug 21 low.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Recovery Extends

• RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $26.267 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $24.838 - High Jul 3
• RES 1: $24.550 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 20 - Aug 14 downleg
• PRICE: $24.125 @ 08:17 BST Aug 24
• SUP 1: $23.413 - Low Aug 23
• SUP 2: $22.667/227 - Low Aug 21 / 15
• SUP 3: $22.111 - Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 bull leg

This week’s move higher in Silver suggests potential for a stronger short-term rally. The metal has cleared resistance at the 50-day EMA - at $23.539. The break signals scope for a climb towards $24.550, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would open $25.267, the Jul 20 high and a key resistance. On the downside, initial support to watch is yesterday’s low at $23.413. A break would signal a potential reversal.