MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bunds Approach Key Short-Term Resistance

Price Signal Summary - Bunds Approach Key Short-Term Resistance

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis traded higher again yesterday and are approaching the next objective of 4650.60, 1.236 projection of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - Aug 19 price swing. EUROSTOXX 50 futures started the week on a firm note and have maintained this tone. Attention is on 4600.00 and a near-term breach of this resistance handle.
• In FX, EURUSD remains below recent highs. The move lower on Oct 29 highlights a failure to clear the 50-day EMA and means the bear channel top - a key resistance - at 1.1691 today, remains intact. The channel is drawn off the Jun 1 high. The focus is on 1.1524, Oct 12 low and bear trigger. GBPUSD is softer. A deeper pullback would open 1.3544, the Oct 6 low and highlight a potential resumption of the downtrend. USDJPY remains below recent highs but above support at 113.35-00, the 20-day EMA and Oct 12 low respectively. A break would signal scope for a deeper pullback.
• On the commodity front, Gold is consolidating but maintains a positive short-term tone. Scope is seen for a climb towards $1834.0, the Sep 3 high. Initial support is at $1772.0, Oct 29 low. WTI broader trend conditions are unchanged and remain bullish, although futures remain below last week's high. Support to watch is at $80.58, Oct 28 low.
• In the FI space, Bund futures are firmer. Short-term gains are considered corrective, however watch resistance at 169.83, Oct 27 high. A break would alter the short-term picture and suggest scope for a stronger recovery. Gilts breached resistance at 152.57 last week. This confirmed a double bottom reversal on the daily chart and if correct, signals scope for a climb towards 126.39, 50.0% retracement of the Aug - Oct downleg. Support is at 124.25, Nov 1 low. Key support though has been defined at 123.43, Oct 21 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 1.1821 High Sep 16
• RES 3: 1.17155 / High Sep 22
• RES 2: 1.1691 Bear channel top drawn from the Jun 1 high
• RES 1: 1.1616/92 20-day EMA / High Oct 28
• PRICE: 1.1585 @ 06:03 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 1.1535/24 Low Oct 29 / Low Oct 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1493 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Jan '21 bull phase
• SUP 3: 1.1469 1.236 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1351 Bear channel base drawn from the Jun 1 high

EURUSD is unchanged. The pair remains vulnerable following Friday's sharp sell-off that highlights a failure to clear the 50-day EMA and more importantly, means the bear channel top - a key resistance - at 1.1691 today, remains intact. A channel breakout is required to signal a trend reversal. The focus is on 1.1524, Oct 12 low and the bear trigger. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

GBPUSD TECHS: Retracement Mode

• RES 4: 1.3983 High Jul 30
• RES 3: 1.3958 High Aug 4
• RES 2: 1.3913 High Sep 14 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3720/3835 50-day EMA / High Oct 20
• PRICE: 1.3631 @ 06:09 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 1.3574 61.8% retracement of the Sep 29 - Oct 20 rally
• SUP 2: 1.3544 Low Oct 6
• SUP 3: 1.3465 2.0% 10-dma env
• SUP 4: 1.3412 / Low Sep 29 and bear trigger

GBPUSD traded lower again Tuesday. This week's weakness has resulted in a move back below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A continued pullback would open 1.3544, Oct 16 low and highlight a likely resumption of the broader downtrend. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.3835, Oct 20 high where a break would instead confirm a resumption of the recent upleg and open 1.3913 once again, Sep 14 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Probes The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.8624/58 High Oct 1 / High Sep 29
• RES 3: 0.8599 76.4% retracement of the Sep 29 - Oct 26 sell-off
• RES 2: 0.8561 61.8% retracement of the Sep 29 - Oct 26 sell-off
• RES 1: 0.8514 High Nov 2
• PRICE: 0.8498 @ 06:13 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 0.8441/8403 Low Nov 1 / Low Oct 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8370/56 1.0% 10-dma envelope / Low Feb 26, 2020
• SUP 3: 0.8339 Low Feb 25, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.8282 Feb 2020 low and a major support

EURGBP traded higherTuesday. The pair has moved above the 20-day EMA and attention is on the 50-day EMA at 0.8508 that has this week been probed. Clearance of this average would improve short-term conditions for bulls and signal scope for a stronger near-term recovery. This would open 0.8561, 61.8% of the Sep 29 - Oct 26 sell-off. The trigger for a resumption of weakness is unchanged at 0.8403.

USDJPY TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: 116.08 1.764 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 price swing
• RES 3: 115.51 High Mar 10, 2017
• RES 2: 114.99 1.50 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 price swing
• RES 1: 114.70/73 High Oct 20 / High Nov 6, 2017
• PRICE: 113.85 @ 06:17 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 113.35/00 20-day EMA / Low Oct 12
• SUP 2: 112.08 High Sep 30 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 111.51 Low Oct 8
• SUP 4: 110.82/80 Low Oct 4 / High Aug 11

USDJPY remains in a corrective cycle and recent highs are intact. Attention is on 113.35, the 20-day EMA and 113.00, the Oct 12 low. A break of this support zone would signal scope for a deeper pullback and open 112.08, Sep 30 high and a recent breakout level. Any deeper short-term sell-off though would be considered corrective. Trend conditions remain bullish and the trigger for a resumption of the uptrend is 114.70, Oct 20 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Testing Support

• RES 4: 134.40 2.382 proj of the Sep 22 - 29 - Oct 6 price swing
• RES 3: 134.13 High Jun 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 133.76 High Jun 10
• RES 1: 132.92/133.48 High Oct 29 / High Oct 20
• PRICE: 131.87 @ 06:20 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 131.48 Low Nov 2
• SUP 2: 130.86/75 50-day EMA / Sep 3 high
• SUP 3: 129.28 Low Oct 11
• SUP 4: 128.94 Low Oct 8

EURJPY continues to trade just above its 20-day EMA. Attention is on this EMA that intersects at 131.67 and was probed Tuesday. A clear break lower would suggest scope for a deeper corrective pullback and expose 130.75, Sep3 high and a recent key breakout level. Note that 130.86 is where the 50-day EMA intersects - a key short-term support. Broader trend signals continue to point north, the trigger for a resumption of gains is 133.48.

AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Sell-Off

• RES 4: 0.7716 High Jun 16
• RES 3: 0.7630 1.236 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 - Sep 29 price swing
• RES 2: 0.7599 High Jul 6
• RES 1: 0.7556/57 200-dma / 50.0% of the Feb - Aug sell-off
• PRICE: 0.7445 @ 06:26 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 0.7420 Low Nov 2
• SUP 2: 0.7324/7395 Low Oct 13 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.7288 Low Oct 8
• SUP 4: 0.7226/7170 Low Oct 6 / Low Sep 29

AUDUSD traded lower yesterday. Dips however are considered corrective. Last week's breach of 0.7546, Oct 21 high confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The focus is on the 200-dma at 0.7556. Clearance of this average would strengthen bullish conditions and extend the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are set on 0.7599, the Jul 6 high. Firm support to watch is seen at 0.7395, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Bear Flag Formation

• RES 4: 1.2648 High Oct 6
• RES 3: 1.2562 High Oct 8
• RES 2: 1.2494/98 Low Sep 3 and recent breakout level / 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2432 High Oct 27
• PRICE: 1.2414 @ 06:31 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 1.2288 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2253 Low Jun 23
• SUP 3: 1.2229 76.4% retracement of the Jun - Aug rally
• SUP 4: 1.2157 Low Jun 16

USDCAD remains in a range and continues to consolidate. Recent activity still appears to be a bear flag. If correct, this pattern reinforces current bearish conditions and signals scope for a break lower near-term. A bearish theme follows the recent break of the Jul 30 low of 1.2422 that has opened 1.2253 next, the Jun 23 low. Moving Average conditions remain in a bear mode. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2494, Sep 3 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z1) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 170.55 High Oct 4
• RES 3: 170.11 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 169.83 High Oct 27 and key resistance
• RES 1: 169.36 High Nov 2
• PRICE: 169.17 @ 05:22 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 167.69 Low Nov 1
• SUP 2: 167.52 Low Mar 19 2020 (cont)
• SUP 3: 166.33 Low May 21 2019 (cont)
• SUP 4: 166.16 2.50 proj of the Oct 14 - 22 - 27 price swing

Bund futures traded higher yesterday. Short-term gains are likely corrective and the trend condition remains bearish. The contract registered a fresh trend low of 167.69 Monday. This maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. With momentum and moving average signals in a bear mode, scope is seen for weakness towards 167.52 next, Mar 19 2020 low (cont). Key short-term resistance has been defined at 169.83, Oct 27 high.

BOBL TECHS: (Z1) Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 135.200 Low Sep 17, high Oct 4 and recent breakout level
• RES 3: 135.060 High Oct 7
• RES 2: 134.860 High Oct 14
• RES 1: 134.530/610 20-day EMA / High Oct 28 and key resistance
• PRICE: 134.380 @ 05:16 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 133.690 Low Oct 29
• SUP 2: 133.340 Low Mar 19 and key medium-term support (cont)
• SUP 3: 133.308 1.764 proj of the Oct 4 - 13 - 14 price swing
• SUP 4: 133.100 2.00 proj of the Oct 4 - 13 - 14 price swing

Bobl futures rallied sharply higher yesterday. The bounce though is considered corrective. A bearish tone remains intact following last week's move lower and fresh trend low prints. This maintains the current price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Key short-term trend resistance is at 134.610, Oct 28 high and a break is required to signal scope for a reversal. With trend signals still pointing south, the focus is on 133.340 next.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z1) Monitoring Key Resistance

• RES 4: 112.290 High Sep 20
• RES 3: 112.255 High Sep 23 and Oct 5
• RES 2: 112.220 High Oct 14
• RES 1: 112.160/170 High Oct 26/Nov 2 / Intraday high
• PRICE: 112.155 @ 09:25 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 112.050/111.945 Low Nov 2 / Low Oct 28
• SUP 2: 111.925 1.236 proj of the Oct 14 - 19 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 111.897 1.382 proj of the Oct 14 - 19 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 111.865 Low Jun 5/8 2020 low (cont)

From a trend perspective, Schatz futures remain bearish and this week's bounce is considered corrective. The recent break of 112.030, Oct 19 low confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This signals scope for weakness towards 111.865, the Jun 5 / 8, 2020 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 112.160, Oct 26 high. A clear break would alter the S/T picture.

GILT TECHS: (Z1) Double Bottom Still In Play

• RES 4: 127.09 61.8% retracement of the Aug - Oct downleg
• RES 3: 126.84 Low Sep 17
• RES 2: 126.39 50.0% retracement of the Aug - Oct downleg
• RES 1: 125.87 High Oct 27
• PRICE: 125.14 @ Close Nov 2
• SUP 1: 124.25 Low Nov 1
• SUP 2: 123.43 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 123.16 Low Feb 27, 2019 (cont)
• SUP 4: 122.75 2.236 proj of the Aug 31 - Sep 17 - 21 price swing

Gilt futures have recovered from Monday's low of 124.25. Last week's breach of 125.27, Oct 14 high, highlights a double bottom reversal. The close above 125.27 confirmed this pattern and if correct, sets the scene for an extension higher near-term above 126.00 towards 126.39, a retracement level. Key trend support has been defined at 123.43, Oct 21 low. A break would resume the recent downtrend.

BTP TECHS: (Z1) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 154.64 High Sep 22 / 23
• RES 3: 153.59 High Sep 24
• RES 2: 152.54/87 High Oct 14 / High Oct 1
• RES 1: 150.38/151.89 Low Oct 22 / High Oct 27 and key resistance
• PRICE: 149.92 @ Close Nov 2
• SUP 1: 148.14/147.12 Low Nov 2 / Low Nov 1 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 146.65 1.618 proj of the Sep 23 - Oct 6 - 14 price swing
• SUP 3: 146.12 1.764 proj of the Sep 23 - Oct 6 - 14 price swing
• SUP 4: 145.26 2.00 proj of the Sep 23 - Oct 6 - 14 price swing

BTP futures have found some support and traded higher yesterday. Gains are likely a correction and trend conditions continue to highlight a bearish theme. Lows earlier this week maintain and extend the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. With MA studies pointing south, the focus is on 146.65 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key resistance has been defined at 151.89, Oct 27 high. A break would signal a potential S/T base.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (Z1) Defying Gravity

• RES 4: 4448.00 High Jan 2, 2008 (cont)
• RES 3: 4400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4385.00 1.236 proj of Mar 19- Jul 21-Oct 30 2020 swing (cont)
• RES 1: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• PRICE: 4284.00 @ 05:59 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 4223.50 High Sep 6 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 4178.00/4131.70 Low Oct 29 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4004.00 / 3949.50 Low Oct 12 / Low Oct 6 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3902.50 Low Jul 20

EUROSTOXX 50 futures continue to trade higher and bullish conditions remain firmly in place. The contract has recently cleared former key resistance at 4223.00, the Sep 6 high and a key bull trigger. The break of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the underlying uptrend and attention is on 4300.00 next. On the downside, the 50-day EMA, at 4137.80 today, remains a key support. A break would signal a potential short-term top.

E-MINI S&P (Z1): Bulls Firmly In Control

• RES 4: 4700.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4687.32 1.382 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - Aug 19 price swing
• RES 3: 4650.60 1.236 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - Aug 19 price swing
• RES 1: 4627.00 High Nov 2
• PRICE: 4617.75 @ 06:49 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 4543.75/4472.00 Low Oct 27 / High Sep 27
• SUP 2: 4455.737 50-day EMA and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 4317.25/4260.00 Low Oct 12 / Low Oct 1 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 4243.50 Low Jul 20

S&P E-minis maintain a bullish tone. The contract traded higher once again yesterday and remains above the 4600.00 handle. Fresh highs confirm a resumption of the uptrend and the focus is on 4650.60 next, a Fibonacci projection. Trend signals such as moving average studies remain in a bull mode, reinforcing current conditions and market sentiment. The 50-day EMA at 4455.73 represents a firm support handle.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F2) Remains Below Recent Highs

• RES 4: $91.20 - 2.382 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 3: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $87.73 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 1: $85.77/87.00 - High Oct 25 / Round number resistance
• PRICE: $83.80 @ 06:42 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: $81.61/57 - Low Oct 28 / Low Oct 13
• SUP 2: $80.00 - Round number support
• SUP 3: $78.74/42 - 50-day EMA / Low Oct 7
• SUP 4: $75.80 - Low Sep 30

Brent futures remain below the Oct 25 high of $85.77. The contract has recently traded through $83.36, Oct 21 low and probed the 20-day EMA. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback and expose $80.00, with the 50-day EMA at $78.98. Watch initial support at $81.61, Oct 28 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $86.70, Oct 25 high. A break would resume the uptrend.

WTI TECHS: (Z1) Remains Below Recent Highs

• RES 4: $88.96 - 1.382 proj of the Sep 21 - Oct 6 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: $87.45 - 1.236 proj of the Sep 21 - Oct 6 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: $86.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $85.41 - High Oct 25 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $82.71 @ 06:56 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: $81.43/80.58 - 20-day EMA / Low Oct 28
• SUP 2: $78.78 - Low Oct 13
• SUP 3: $76.95 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $74.67 - Low Oct 7 and key near-term support

WTI futures remain below recent highs. Attention is on the 20-day EMA that intersects at $81.43 and support at $80.58, Oct 28 low. A clear breach of this $81.43 - $80.58 support zone would signal scope for a deeper pullback and open $78.78, Oct 13 low. The 50-day EMA lies at $76.95. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $85.41, Oct 25 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

GOLD TECHS: Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: $1863.3 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun - Aug sell-off
• RES 3: $1844.9 - Low Jun 14
• RES 2: $1834.0 - High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $1813.8 - High Oct 22 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $1780.8 @ 07:12 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: $1772.0/1760.4 - Low Oct 29 / Low Oct 18
• SUP 2: $1746.0 - Low Oct 6 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $1721.7 - Low Sep 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1717.8 - Low Aug 10

Gold remains below recent highs. A short-term uptrend remains intact though. Price recently cleared resistance at $1800.6, Oct 14 high and this highlighted a short-term bullish theme. A resumption of gains would open $1834.0, Sep 3 high. On the downside, a key short-term support has been defined at $1760.4, Oct 18 low. A break would instead suggest scope for a deeper pullback.

SILVER TECHS: Correction Lower Extends

• RES 4: $26.002 - High Aug 4
• RES 3: $25.206 - High Jun 8
• RES 2: $24.867 - High Sep 3 and the reversal trigger
• RES 1: $24.828 - High Oct 22
• PRICE: $23.477 @ 07:17 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: $23.015 - Low Oct 18
• SUP 2: $22.213 - Low Oct 6
• SUP 3: $21.423 - Low Sep 29 and key support
• SUP 4: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb '21 rally

Silver remains below recent highs and recent weakness is considered corrective. The current bull cycle remains intact. Scope is seen for $24.867, Sep 3 high and a key near-term resistance. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen the case for bulls and open $26.00. Initial firm support to watch is $23.015, Oct 18 low. A break would threaten the current bullish price structure.