MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bunds Approach The 50-Day EMA

Price Signal Summary - Bunds Approach The 50-Day EMA

• In equity space, S&P E-minis are drifting off the week's highs, but major supports remain intact and the outlook remains bullish. This keeps nearby resistance at the 4238.25 May 10 high in sight. Key trend support is unchanged at 4029.25, May 13 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are flat on the week. Trend conditions remain bullish and the modest uptrend is still in play with the focus on 4099.00,1.00 projection of the Mar - Jul - Oct 2020 price swing.
• In FX space, EURUSD continues to trade inside the April-May uptrend, maintaining a bullish tone. The pair this week cleared 1.2245 with sights set on 1.2285 next, Jan 8 high. Watch support at 1.2160, May 19 low. The GBPUSD outlook remains bullish. The focus is on 1.4237, Feb 24 high and this year's high print. A break would confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend. USDJPY has traded higher and is holding above initial support at 108.56, May 25 low. Key support lies at 108.34, May 7 low where a break is required to threaten the bullish theme. Attention is on resistance at 109.79, May 13 high and the bull trigger.
• On the commodity front, Gold traded higher this week, cementing the bullish theme. The yellow metal has topped $1,900 this week and this opens the Jan 8 high of $1917.6. Trend conditions remain overbought, with the 14-day RSI at its highest level since August last year. $1872.8/52.3, May 25 low is first support. Oil contracts are trading near recent highs. Brent (N1) key resistance is at $70.24, May 18 high and this marks the bull trigger. WTI (N1) bulls are eyeing $67.02, May 18 high.
• Within FI, Bunds (M1) continue to climb and are through the 20-day EMA. The next resistance is the 170.49, 50-day EMA. Gilts (U1) are firmer too as the correction higher extends. Initial resistance is at 127.74, May 7 and 26 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.2414 High Apr 17, 2018
• RES 3: 1.2349/53 High Jan 6 / High Apr 20, 2018
• RES 2: 1.2285 High Jan 8
• RES 1: 1.2266 High May 25
• PRICE: 1.2186 @ 06:05 BST May 28
• SUP 1: 1.2160/26 Low May 19 / Low May 17
• SUP 2: 1.2052 Low May 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 1.2075 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.1986 Low May 5 and key short-term support

EURUSD is trading closer to the week's lows following Wednesday's move lower. The outlook remains bullish. This follows the recent breach of 1.2245, May 19 high with the focus on 1.2285, Jan 8 high. Further out, the 2021 high of 1.2349, Jan 6 high beckons. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 1.2052, May 13 low while initial support is unchanged at 1.2160, May 19 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: 1.4434 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.4315 High Apr 18, 2018
• RES 2: 1.4237 High Feb 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.4234 High May 21
• PRICE: 1.4197 @ 06:08 BST May 28
• SUP 1: 1.4092 Low May 27
• SUP 2: 1.4006/3972 Low May 13 / Low May 10
• SUP 3: 1.3971 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.3858 Low May 6

GBPUSD bounced well Thursday, reversing the weakness seen earlier in the week. This outlook remains bullish and sights are on 1.4237, Feb 24 high and the key bull trigger. A break would reinforce a bullish case and importantly confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend that started March 2020. On the downside, initial firm support is unchanged at 1.4006, May 13 low where a break would suggest scope for a deeper corrective pullback.

EURGBP TECHS: Support Exposed

• RES 4: 0.87901 2.0% 10-dma envelope / High Feb 12
• RES 3: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 2: 0.8701/21 High May 7 / High Apr 26 and the bull Trigger
• RES 1: 0.8672 High May 25
• PRICE: 0.8584 @ 06:15 BST May 28
• SUP 1: 0.8582/61 Low May 18 and this week's low / Low May 12
• SUP 2: 0.8531 76.4% retracement of the Apr 5 - 26 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8445 2.0% 10-dma envelope

Markets confirmed EURGBP short-term gains were corrective following yesterday's move lower. Attention turns to support at 0.8561, May 12 low where a break would strengthen a bearish theme and open 0.8531, a Fibonacci retracement ahead of the key support and bear trigger at 0.8472, Apr 5 low. On the upside, firm short-term resistance has been defined at 0.8672, May 25 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Bulls Return

• RES 4: 111.30 High Mar 26, 2020
• RES 3: 110.97 High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 110.55 High Apr 6
• RES 1: 110.15 76.4% retracement of the Mar 31 - Apr 23 sell-off
• PRICE: 109.89 @ 06:32 BST May 28
• SUP 1: 109.04 High May 27
• SUP 2: 108.56/34 Low May 25 / Low May 7 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 107.48 Low Apr 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 106.97 Low Mar 4

USDJPY's bullish bias returned Thursday, with prices trading above the May 13 high of 109.79. The break higher confirms a resumption of the recovery that started Apr 23. Attention is on 110.15, a Fibonacci retracement and this year's high print of 110.97 from Mar 31. A break of the latter would confirm a resumption of this year's uptrend. Key short-term support has been defined at 108.56, Low May 25.

EURJPY TECHS: Uptrend Resumes

• RES 4: 134.80 High Feb 8, 2018
• RES 3: 134.43 Bull channel top drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low
• RES 2: 134.19 1.618 proj of Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 swing
• RES 1: 134.06 High May 27
• PRICE: 133.87 @ 06:39 BST May 28
• SUP 1: 132.52 Low May 24
• SUP 2: 131.69 Low May 12
• SUP 3: 130.99 Low May 5 and a key support
• SUP 4: 130.90 Bull channel base drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low

EURJPY traded higher yesterday, rallying into the close to touch 134.06. This resumes the current uptrend and reinforces bullish conditions signalling scope for an extension within the rising channel drawn off the Oct 30 2020 low. The top of the channel intersects at 134.43. Moving average studies remain in bull mode, reinforcing current conditions. Initial firm support lies at 132.52, May 24 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Still Range Bound

• RES 4: 0.8007 High Feb 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.7911 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.7891/95 High May 10 / 76.4% of the Feb 25 - Apr 1 sell-off
• RES 1: 0.7813/46 High May 18 / High May 12
• PRICE: 0.7737 @ 06:41 BST May 28
• SUP 1: 0.7688 Low May 13
• SUP 2: 0.7675 Low May 4 and key support
• SUP 3: 0.7635 Low Apr 14
• SUP 4: 0.7586 Low Apr 13

AUDUSD is unchanged and continues to trade in a range. A bearish theme dominates though following the recent move lower to 0.7688 on May 13. A firm support zone has been defined at 0.7688-75, the latter is the May 4 low. Clearance of this support would strengthen a bearish case and signal scope for a deeper pullback towards 0.7586, the Apr 13 low. For bulls, a breach of 0.7813, May 18 high would be positive and open 0.7891, high May 10.

USDCAD TECHS: Range Bound But The Trend Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 1.2419 High Apr 27
• RES 3: 1.2351 High May 4 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 1.2288 High May 13
• RES 1: 1.2155/2203 20-day EMA / High May 6
• PRICE: 1.2088 @ 06:49 BST May 28
• SUP 1: 1.2013 Low May 18
• SUP 2: 1.2000 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 1.1920 Low May 2015
• SUP 4: 1.1849 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD remains in a range. The outlook however is still bearish. The recent key technical development has been the breach of major support at 1.2062, Sep 2017 low. This represents an important pivot chart point that marks either the base of a broad range or the midpoint of a double top reversal pattern. Scope is seen for a test and break of the psychological 1.2000 handle. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2203, May 13 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M1) 50-Day EMA Offers Resistance

• RES 4: 171.27 High Apr 22
• RES 3: 170.98 High May 7 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 170.46 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 170.40 High May 26
• PRICE: 169.77 @ 04:57 BST May 28
• SUP 1: 169.02 Low May 24
• SUP 2: 168.29 Low May 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 168.09 0.764 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 25 - Mar 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 167.52 Low Mar 19, 2020 (cont)

Bund futures traded lower yesterday and recent gains have stalled just ahead of a key resistance highlighted by the 50-day EMA. The moving average intersects at 170.46. The recent recovery is still considered a correction. Further weakness would signal scope for a move towards 169.02, May 24 low and the key support and bear trigger at 168.29, May 19 low. For bulls, a clear break of the 50-day EMA is required to strengthen a bullish case.

BOBL TECHS: (M1) Finds Resistance

• RES 4: 135.050 High Apr 22
• RES 3: 135.040 High May 6 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 135.008 61.8% retracement of the Mar 25 - May 19 downleg
• RES 1: 134.850 High May 26 and 27
• PRICE: 134.670 @ 05:10 BST May 28
• SUP 1: 134.410 Low May 24
• SUP 2: 134.180/140 Low May 19 / Low Feb 26 and key support
• SUP 3: 134.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 133.340 Low Mar 19, 2020 (cont)

Bobl futures reversed course yesterday. Gains have stalled just above the key resistance highlighted by the 50-day EMA. The moving average intersects at 134.819. The recent recovery is still considered a correction. Further weakness would signal scope for a move towards 134.410, May 24 low with the key support zone at 134.180/140, the May 19 and Feb 26 low respectively. A strong break of this week's 134.850 high would resume gains.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M1) Broader Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 112.150 High Apr 8
• RES 3: 112.110/120 High May 4, 5, and 6 / High Apr 22
• RES 2: 112.086 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 112.060 High May 26 and 27
• PRICE: 112.040 @ 04:56 BST May 28
• SUP 1: 112.000 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 111.993 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 3: 111.940 Low Feb 26 ad key support
• SUP 4: 111.860 Low Apr 15, 2019 (cont)

Recent Schatz futures gains are considered corrective. The outlook remains bearish following the sell-off from May 5 that marked a resumption of the bear cycle since Mar 25. Weakness earlier in May resulted in a breach of 112.060, a previous support in March and April. This strengthens a bearish case and opens 111.940, Feb 26 low. For bulls, a breach of 112.110 is required to signal a reversal. Resistance around the 50-day EMA is at 112.086.

GILT TECHS: (U1) Stalls Ahead Of Strong Resistance

• RES 4: 128.10 2.500 projection of the May 13 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: 128.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 127.89 2.236 proj of the May 13 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: 127.74/82 High May 7, 26 / High Apr 20 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 127.03 @ Close May 27
• SUP 1: 126.88 Low May 27
• SUP 2: 126.55 Low May 21
• SUP 3: 126.12 Low May 19
• SUP 4: 125.94 Low May 13 and key support

The Gilt futures broader outlook remains bearish and the contract faced strong selling pressure yesterday. Recent gains are considered a correction and yesterday's move lower signals the potential end of the recent move higher. If correct, scope exists for short-term weakness that would expose this month's low of 125.94 and the bear trigger. Key S/T resistance is marked by the highs of early May and late April. A break would be bullish.

BTP TECHS: (M1) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 148.65 High Apr 22
• RES 3: 148.10 61.8% retracement of the Mar 29 - May 19 sell-off
• RES 2: 147.79 High May 4 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 147.39/41 50-day EMA / High May 27
• PRICE: 147.04 @ Close May 27
• SUP 1: 145.64 Low May 21
• SUP 2: 144.48 Low May 17 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 144.16 1.236 proj of the Feb 12 - 26 - Mar 11 price swing
• SUP 4: 143.61 Low Jul 13, 2020 (cont)

BTP futures remain in a clear downtrend following the recent extension lower to 144.48 on Mar 19. However, this week prices have recovered and a corrective cycle is in play, allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. The break of the 20-day EMA exposes the 50-day EMA at 147.39 that was tested yesterday. This average represents a firm resistance and a clear break would signal scope for further gains. On the downside, initial support is at 145.64.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (M1) Bulls Still In Charge

• RES 4: 4175.00 Low Nov 26, 2007 (cont)
• RES 3: 4140.00 High Jan 18, 2008 (cont)
• RES 2: 4099.00 1.00 proj of of the Mar - Jul - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 1: 4059.00 High May 25 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4051.00 @ 05:45 BST May 28
• SUP 1: 3987.98 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3912.76/3882.00 50-day EMA / Low May 19
• SUP 3: 3844.00 Low May 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3821.00 High Mar 18 and recent breakout level

EUROSTOXX 50 futures are consolidating but remain bullish following this week's breach of resistance at 4036.00, May 10 high. The break higher confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and opens 4099.00, a Fibonacci projection. The climb also maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, reinforcing the current trend condition. On the downside, firm support is unchanged at 3882.00, May 19 low.

E-MINI S&P (M1): Approaching Key Resistance

• RES 4: 4288.80 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 4239.26 1.764 proj of the Feb 1 - Feb 16 - Mar 4 price swing
• RES 2: 4238.25 High May 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4217.50 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4213.00 @ 05:54 BST May 28
• SUP 1: 4142.50 Low May 24
• SUP 2: 4055.60 Low May 19
• SUP 3: 4029.25 Low May 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 4021.00 Low Apr 5

S&P E-minis remain firm. The contract started this week on a bullish note and breached resistance at 4185.00, May 21 high. The contract has again edged higher today. Gains have also reinforced the bullish significance of the recent recovery from support defined by the 50-day EMA that has been tested twice this month. Attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at 4238.25, May 10 high. Initial firm support is unchanged at 4055.50, May 19 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N1) Approaching Key Resistance

• RES 4: $73.40 - High May 20, 2019 (cont)
• RES 3: $71.95 - High Sep 16, 2019 (cont)
• RES 2: $71.75 - High Jan 8 2020 (cont)
• RES 1: $70.24 - High May 18 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $69.50 @ 06:47 BST May 28
• SUP 1: $67.76 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $66.46/64.57 - Low May 24 / Low May 21 and key support
• SUP 3: $63.93 - Low Apr 26
• SUP 4: $62.00 - Low Apr 12

Brent crude traded higher yesterday and is firmer today extending the recovery from $64.57, May 21 low. The underlying uptrend remains intact and attention is on $70.24, May 18 high and the bull trigger. Price has recently traded below the 50-day EMA however levels around the average continue to provide support. Weakness through last week's $64.57 low is required to signal a short-term top and the start of a corrective pullback.

WTI TECHS: (N1) Fresh Trend High

• RES 4: $70.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $68.39 - 2.236 proj of Mar 23 - 30 - Apr 5 price swing
• RES 2: $67.95 - High Oct 29, 2018
• RES 1: $67.45 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $67.06 @ 07:04 BST May 28
• SUP 1: $63.63/61.56 - Low May 24 / Low May 21
• SUP 2: $60.55 - Low Apr 22 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $58.70 - Low Apr 12
• SUP 4: $57.63 - Low Apr 5

WTI crude traded higher yesterday and today has confirmed a fresh trend high print of $67.45. This marks a resumption of the underlying uptrend and signals scope for an extension higher. The focus is on $67.95, Oct 29 2018 high (cont) and $68.39, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key support has been defined at $61.56, May 21 low. A break is required to suggest a short-term top and the start of a deeper corrective pullback.

GOLD TECHS: Needle Continues To Point North

• RES 4: $1959.4 - High Jan 6 and key resistance
• RES 3: $1927.7 - High Jan 7
• RES 2: $1917.6 - High Jan 8
• RES 1: $1912.8 - High May 26
• PRICE: $1889.6 @ 07:17 BST May 28
• SUP 1: $1872.8/52.3 - Low May 25 / Low May 19
• SUP 2: $1808.9 - Low May 13
• SUP 3: $1809.4 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $1764.3 - Low Apr 30

Gold bulls remain in charge. This week's gains confirmed once again a resumption of the underlying uptrend as the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows extends. Price has cleared $1892.7, 76.4% of the Jan 6 - Mar 8 sell-off. This signals scope for a climb towards $1917.6, high Jan 8 while further out, attention is on $1959.4, Jan 6 high and the key resistance. Initial firm support is $1852.3.

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Focus

• RES 4: $30.100 - High Feb 1 and key resistance
• RES 3: $30.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $29.053 - High Feb 2
• RES 1: $28.753 - High May 18
• PRICE: $27.625 @ 07:21 BST May 28
• SUP 1: $27.202 - Low May 21
• SUP 2: $26.721 - Low Mar 13 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $26.732 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $25.718 - Low Apr 29

The Silver outlook remains bullish. Price action May 18 probed $28.609, 76.4% of the sell-off between Feb 1 - Mar 31. This session's high of $28.753 marks a short-term bull trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for strength towards $29.00 and above. Key short-term support has been defined at $26.721, Mar 13 low. Clearance of this level is required to threaten the trend. Initial support is at $27.202.