MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bunds Hit New Cycle Lows

Price Signal Summary – Bunds Hit New Cycle Lows

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis are holding onto the bulk of recent gains following last week's reversal from 4293.75, Sep 20 low. The contract has cleared a key short-term resistance at 4418.00, Sep 20 high. The break strengthens a bullish case and signals scope for a stronger recovery. EUROSTOXX 50 maintains a bullish tone following last week's rebound from 3974.00, Sep 20 low. Further gains would open the bull trigger at 4223.00, Sep 6 high.
• In FX, EURUSD outlook remains bearish. The focus is on key support at 1.1664, Aug 20 low. GBPUSD remains above key support at 1.3602, Aug 20 low. Triangle support at 1.3636 remains intact too and a breach of the 1.3636/02 zone is required to trigger a deeper sell-off. A resumption of gains would open 1.3792 the 50-day EMA. USDJPY continues to strengthen with resistance at 110.80 cleared, Aug 11 high. The break of this hurdle strengthens a bullish case and paves the way for a climb towards 111.66, Jul 2 high and bull trigger. The USD Index (DXY) key resistance resides at 93.73, Aug 20 high and the bull trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started May 25.
• On the commodity front, Gold remains bearish. The yellow metal last week traded through former support at $1742.3, Sep 20 low. This confirms a resumption of the current short-term bear cycle and signals scope for a move towards $1742.5, 76.4% of the Aug 9 - Sep 3 rally. WTI futures maintain a bullish outlook and this week's strong start, as the contract continues to climb. Last week's break of $73.58, the Jul 6 high and bull trigger confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and has paved the way for further gains near-term.
• In FI, Bund futures resumed their downtrend yesterday with the contract trading below Friday's low of 170.14. This reinforces a bearish theme and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs signalling scope for further downside. Gilt futures traded lower again Monday as the current bear cycle extends. The outlook remains bearish following last week's sell-off and break of support at 126.84, Sep 17 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.1909 High Jul 30 / Sep 03 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.1858 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.1846 High Sep 14
• RES 1: 1.1761 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.1703 @ 06:10 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 1.1684 Low Sep 23
• SUP 2: 1.1664 Low Aug 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1621 1.00 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1603 Low Nov 4, 2020

EURUSD remains bearish and is consolidating near recent lows. This follows recent weakness that has seen support at 1.1770, Sep 13 low and 1.1758, 61.8% of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally, cleared. Last week's extension lower also resulted in a breach of 1.1722, the 76.4% retracement. This reinforces bearish conditions and opens 1.1664, Aug 20 low and an important bear trigger. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.1761, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Holding Above Recent Lows

• RES 4: 1.3983/90 High Jul 30 / 61.8% of the Jun 1 - Jul 20 sell-off
• RES 3: 1.3958 High Aug 4
• RES 2: 1.3913 High Sep 14 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3743/89 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3716 @ 06:14 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 1.3637/02 Triangle base drawn from Jul 20 low / Low Aug 20
• SUP 2: 1.3572 Low Jul 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3520 Low Jan 18
• SUP 4: 1.3462 50.0% retracement of the Sep '20 - Jun rally

GBPUSD remains above recent lows. The pair reversed higher on Sep 23 and the strong bounce leaves key support at 1.3602 firmly in place, the Aug 20 low. Furthermore, it also means triangle support at 1.3637 remains intact despite being probed recently. This signals potential for a stronger recovery with the focus on 1.3789, the 50-day EMA. On the downside, a clear break of 1.3637-02 is required to resume bearish pressure.

EURGBP TECHS: Eyes On Support

• RES 4: 0.8670 High Jul 20 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8618/59 76.4% of the Jul 20 - Aug 10 sell-off / High Jul 21
• RES 2: 0.8613/14 High Sep 22 / High Sep 7
• RES 1: 0.8584 High Sep 27
• PRICE: 0.8531 @ 06:20 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 0.8527 Low Sept 27
• SUP 2: 0.8502/01 76.4% of the Aug 10 - Sep 7 rally / Low Sep 16
• SUP 3: 0.8484 Low Aug 16
• SUP 4: 0.8471/50 1.0% 10-dma envelope / Low Aug 10

EURGBP traded sharply lower Monday and breached initial support at 0.8530, Sep 20 low. The break lower strengthens a bearish case following last week's failure to challenge key resistance at 0.8614, Sep 7 high. Attention is on 0.8501, Sep 16 low. A break of this level would open 0.8484, Aug 16 low and 0.8450, Aug 10 low and the bear trigger. The cross needs to clear 0.8614 to reinstate a bullish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance

• RES 4: 112.23 High Feb 20, 2020
• RES 3: 111.71 High Mar 24
• RES 2: 111.66 High Jul 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 111.24 Intraday high
• PRICE: 111.18 @ 06:25 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 110.45 High Sep 8
• SUP 2: 109.93/11 50-day EMA / Low Aug 16 and Sep 15
• SUP 3: 108.72 Low Aug 04 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 108.56 Low May 25

USDJPY continues to strengthen with resistance at 110.80 cleared, Aug 11 high. The break of this hurdle strengthens a bullish case and paves the way for a climb towards 111.66, Jul 2 high and bull trigger. Clearance of 111.66 would confirm a resumption of the current broader bull cycle that started Jan 6. Key short-term support is unchanged at 109.11, Aug 16 / Sep 15 low. Initial firm support is seen at 109.93, the 50-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Above 130.00

• RES 4: 131.76 61.8% retracement of the Jun - Sep downleg
• RES 3: 131.09 High Jul 13
• RES 2: 130.35/75 1.0% 10-dma envelope / High Sep 3 bull trigger
• RES 1: 130.20 High Sep 14 high
• PRICE: 130.09 @ 06:39 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 129.38 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 127.94/93 Low Aug 19 / Low Sep 22 the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 127.88 50.0% retracement of the Oct '20 - Jan rally
• SUP 4: 127.50 Low Feb 22

EURJPY traded sharply higher on Sep 23 and bulls have not looked back as the cross extends gains. The bounce follows a failure last week to clear support at 127.94, Aug 19 low. A continuation higher would signal scope for gains towards the key short-term resistance at 130.75, Sep 3 high and a bull trigger. On the downside, price needs to clear support at 127.94/93 to signal a resumption of the downtrend. Initial support is at 129.38.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Risk Still Present

• RES 4: 0.7478 High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.7410 High Sep 10
• RES 2: 0.7350 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.7316 High Sep 23 and intraday high
• PRICE: 0.7303 @ 06:45 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 0.7220 Low Sep 20
• SUP 2: 0.7194 76.4% retracement of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally
• SUP 3: 0.7106 Low Aug 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.7053 38.2% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb uptrend

AUDUSD rebounded last week and is testing the 20-day EMA. A reversal lower would signal a resumption of the near-term downtrend. This would open 0.7220 ahead of a Fibonacci support at 0.7194. The bear trigger is unchanged at 0.7106, Aug 20 low - a break would confirm a resumption of the bear trend that started late February. Firm resistance is seen at 0.7350, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Testing Its 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.2976 1.00 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 19 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2957 High Dec 21, 2020
• RES 2: 1.2949 High Aug 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2796/2896 High Sep 23 / High Sep 20
• PRICE: 1.2603 @ 06:52 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 1.2583 Low Sep 10
• SUP 2: 1.2494 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2422 Jul 30 low and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.2367 61.8% retracement of the Jun - Aug rally

USDCAD traded lower last week and continues to move further away from its recent Sep 20 high of 1.2896. A bullish price structure remains intact though and the pullback is considered corrective. The pair is testing the 50-day EMA, a clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper pullback and open 1.2494, the Sep 3 low. For bulls, a reversal higher and a resumption of gains would again open key resistance at 1.2949, Aug 20 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z1) Resumes Its Downtrend

• RES 4: 172.48 High Sep 9
• RES 3: 172.12 High Sep 14
• RES 2: 171.96 High Sep 21 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 170.81 Low Sep 17 and recent breakout level
• PRICE: 170.03 @ 05:09 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 169.73 Low Sep 27
• SUP 2: 169.65 1.382 proj of the Sep 9 - 17 - 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 169.46 1.50 proj of the Sep 9 - 17 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 168.29 Low May 19 (cont_)

Bund futures resumed their downtrend yesterday with the contract trading below Friday's low of 170.14. This reinforces a bearish theme and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs signalling scope for further downside. The focus is on 169.65 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 171.96, Sep 21 high. A break above this level is required to ease bearish pressure.

BOBL TECHS: (Z1) Fresh Lows

• RES 4: 135.870 High Sep 3
• RES 4: 135.660 High Sep 7 / 9
• RES 3: 135.540 High Sep 21 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 135.200 Low Sep 17 and recent breakout level
• PRICE: 134.940 @ 05:13 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 134.850 Low Sep 27
• SUP 2: 134.830 3.00 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 134.736 3.236 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 134.660 Low Sep 7 and 8 (cont)

Bobl futures maintain a bearish tone following last week's resumption of its downtrend and the contract traded lower again yesterday. This maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that defines a downtrend and signals scope for an extension lower. The focus is on 134.830 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 135.540, Sep 21 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z1) Trend Conditions Still Bearish

• RES 4: 112.340 High Aug 31
• RES 3: 112.305 High Sep 3
• RES 2: 112.290 High Sep 20 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 112.254 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 112.205 @ 05:23 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 112.190 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• SUP 2: 112.183 2.618 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 112.174 2.764 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 112.159 61.8% retracement of the May - Aug rally (cont)

Schatz futures resumed bearish activity last week and remains weak. The contract traded below former support at 112.215, Sep 9 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains a price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that defines a downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension lower with the focus on 112.190 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 112.290, Sep 20 high.

GILT TECHS: (Z1) Slide Extends

• RES 4: 128.42 High Sep 7
• RES 3: 128.18 High Sep 10, 14
• RES 2: 127.69 High Sep 21 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 126.84 Low Sep 17 and recent breakout level
• PRICE: 125.94 @ Close Sep 27
• SUP 1: 125.71 Low Sep 27
• SUP 2: 125.48 1.00 proj of the Aug 31 - Sep 17 - 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 124.96 1.236 proj of the Aug 31 - Sep 17 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 124.64 1.382 proj of the Aug 31 - Sep 17 - 21 price swing

Gilt futures traded lower again Monday as the current bear cycle extends. The outlook remains bearish following last week's sell-off and break of support at 126.84, Sep 17 low. The move lower confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and has opened 125.48 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is at 127.69, Sep 21 high. A break of this level is required to ease bearish pressure.

BTP TECHS: (Z1) Support Cleared

• RES 4: 155.68 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 155.14 High Aug 31
• RES 2: 154.64 High Sep 22 / 23 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 153.93 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 152.77 @ Close Sep 27
• SUP 1: 152.29 Low Sep 27
• SUP 2: 152.16 61.8% retracement of the Jun 25 - Aug 5 rally (cont)
• SUP 3: 151.93 Low Jul 8 (cont)
• SUP 4: 151.32 76.4% retracement of the Jun 25 - Aug 5 rally (cont)

BTP futures trend conditions remain bearish. A price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that highlights a bearish theme is intact and Friday's move below 152.94, Sep 9 low, reinforces this condition. The contract traded lower again yesterday. The focus is on 152.66 next, Jul 15 low on the continuation chart. Key near-term resistance is at 154.64, Sep 23/24 high. A break of this hurdle is required to ease bearish pressure.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (Z1) Bull Trigger Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 4223.00 High Sep 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 4234.50 0.764 projection of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: 4200.50 High Sep 24
• PRICE: 4152.00 @ 05:47 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 4118.20 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4047.00/3974.00 Low Sep 22 / Low Sep 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3962.50 76.4% retracement of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 rally
• SUP 4: 3941.50 Low Jul 21

EUROSTOXX 50 futures are holding onto gains following last week's reversal of recent weakness and the bounce from 3970.00, Sep 20 low. Importantly, price has traded above former resistance at 4184.00 Sep 17 high paving the way for a test and potentially a break of key resistance at 4223.00, Sep 6 high. A breach of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the underlying uptrend. Key support is unchanged at 3974.00.

E-MINI S&P (Z1): Holds Onto Bulk Of Recent Gains

• RES 4: 4539.50 High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4519.75 High Sep 9
• RES 3: 4481.50 76.4% retracement of the Sep 3 - 20 downleg
• RES 1: 4478.50 High Sep 16
• PRICE: 4434.25 @ 05:50 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 4385.75/293.75 Low Sep 23 / Low Sep 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4243.50 Low Jul 20
• SUP 3: 4214.50 Low Jul 19 and a key support
• SUP 4: 4117.00 Low Jun 21

S&P E-minis are holding onto the bulk of recent gains following last week's reversal from 4293.75, Sep 20 low. The contract has cleared a key short-term resistance at 4418.00, Sep 20 high. The break strengthens a bullish case and signals scope for a stronger recovery. Note too that the price remains above the 50-day day EMA and this is a positive development. 4293.75 marks the key support and is the bear trigger.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X1) Clears $80.00

• RES 4: $82.61 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 3: $82.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $81.85 - High Oct 17, 2018 (cont)
• RES 1: $80.88 - High Oct 19, 2018 (cont)
• PRICE: $80.42 @ 07:03 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: $78.21 Low Sep 27
• SUP 2: $76.13 - High Sep 15 and recent breakout level
• SUP 3: $75.60 - Low Sep 23
• SUP 4: $73.26 - Low Sep 21 and key near-term support

Brent futures continue to climb having started the week on a firm note. Last week's break of former resistance at 76.13, Sep 15 high confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. The move higher has also seen the contract trade above $80.00. Further upside is likely near-term with the focus on the $82.00 handle next. Initial support is seen at yesterday's low of $78.21.

WTI TECHS: (X1) Defying Gravity

• RES 4: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $79.53 - 1.382 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 2 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 2: $78.24 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 2 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 1: $77.00 - Round number resistance
• PRICE: $76.50 @ 07:12 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: $73.57 - High Jul 6 and recent breakout level
• SUP 2: $71.61 - Low Sep 21
• SUP 3: $69.39 - Low Sep 21 and key support
• SUP 4: $67.35 - Low Sep 9

WTI futures maintain a bullish outlook and this week's strong start, as the contract continues to climb. Last week's break of $73.58, the Jul 6 high and bull trigger confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and has paved the way for further gains near-term. The focus is on $78.24 next, a Fibonacci projection with scope seen for a climb towards $80.00 further out. On the downside, initial support is seen at $73.57.

GOLD TECHS: Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: $1844.9 - Low Jun 14
• RES 3: $1834.1 - High Jul 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $1808.7 - High Sep 14
• RES 1: $1787.4 - High Sep 22 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: $1744.8 @ 07:25 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: $1738.0 - Low Sep 23
• SUP 2: $1724.5 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 9 - Sep 3 rally
• SUP 3: $1690.6 - Low Aug 08 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1678.00 Low Mar 31

Gold remains bearish. The yellow metal last week traded through former support at $1742.3, Sep 20 low. This confirms a resumption of the current short-term bear cycle and signals scope for a move towards $1742.5, 76.4% of the Aug 9 - Sep 3 rally. A breach of this level would open the key support at $1690.6 further out, Aug 9 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $1787.4, Sep 22 high. A break would ease bearish pressure.

SILVER TECHS: Consolidating

• RES 4: $25.206 - High Jun 8
• RES 3: $24.867 - High Sep 3 and the reversal trigger
• RES 2: $23.986 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $23.201 - 20-Day EMA
• PRICE: $22.493 @ 07:30 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: $22.039 - Low Sep 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $21.899 - Low Nov 30, 2020
• SUP 3: $21.677 - Low Sep 24
• SUP 4: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb '21 rally

Silver continues to consolidate. Trend conditions are unchanged and remain bearish following recent sharp losses that resulted in a breach of support at $22.626, Aug 9 low. Note that a bearish theme was also recently reinforced following a failure to clear the 50-day EMA that continues to provide resistance. The focus is on $21.899 next, Nov 30, 2020 low. Key trend resistance has been defined at $24.867, Sep 3 high.