MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bunds Reinforce S/T Bullish Conditions

Price Signal Summary - Bunds Reinforce S/T Bullish Conditions

• S&P E-Minis remain below recent highs. The short-term outlook is bullish and short-term dips are considered corrective. For bulls, a break of Monday’s 4147.25 high would confirm a resumption of recent gains and open 4204.75 next, the May 31 high and the next key resistance. EUROSTOXX 50 futures trend conditions remain bullish following last week’s gains and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. The contract has recently pierced the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 6 - Jul 5 downleg, at 3722.40.
• EURUSD faced resistance yesterday, pulling back from the session high. The short-term outlook remains bullish though, as long as support at 1.0097, the Jul 27 low, remains intact. USDJPY recovered losses into the Tuesday close, having found support at 130.41. Gains are considered corrective - for now. Recent weakness has resulted in the break of a number of important technical chart points. AUDUSD traded higher Monday, but has since faced resistance and traded sharply lower Tuesday. The short-term outlook is bullish and for now, the pullback is considered corrective.
• Gold maintains a firmer tone despite the pullback from yesterday’s high. Attention is on resistance at the 50-day EMA, at $1783.80. The average was pierced yesterday, a clear break would suggest potential for a bullish extension and expose trendline resistance at $1807.1. WTI futures remain vulnerable, having traded sharply lower Monday. The contract has recently failed to clear key resistance around the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at $100.25.
• Bund futures maintain a bullish tone and yesterday’s fresh trend high reinforces current short-term conditions. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and fresh highs yesterday reinforce this setup. Continued gains highlight an extension of the recent break of resistance at 117.09, the Jul 6 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.0397 Bull channel resistance drawn from the Feb 10 high
• RES 3: 1.0360 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.0359 Low Jun 15
• RES 1: 1.0294 High Aug 2
• PRICE: 1.0178 @ 06:20 BST Aug 3
• SUP 1: 1.0146/0097 Low Jul 29 / 27 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 1.0064/0.9952 Low Jul 18 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.9944 1.618 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.9883 1.764 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing

EURUSD faced resistance yesterday, pulling back from the session high. The short-term outlook remains bullish though, as long as support at 1.0097, the Jul 27 low, remains intact. A resumption of gains would signal scope for an extension higher within the bull channel - the top intersects at 1.0397 and is a key resistance. Weakness below 1.0097 would expose parity again and 0.9952, the Jul 14.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 1.2518 High Jun 6
• RES 3: 1.2406 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2332 High Jun 27
• RES 1: 1.2293 High Aug 01
• PRICE: 1.2177 @ 06:25 BST Aug 3
• SUP 1: 1.2089/63 20-day EMA / Low Jul 29
• SUP 2: 1.1961 Low Jul 25
• SUP 3: 1.1890/1760 Low Jul 21 / Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.1673 1.00 proj of the May 27 - Jun 14 - 16 price swing

GBPUSD drifted somewhat during Tuesday trade. A bullish short-term theme remains intact though following gains posted Monday. Price has recently traded above the 50-day EMA. This reinforces short-term bullish conditions with the next objective at 1.2332, the Jun 27 high. Potential is also seen for a climb towards 1.2406, the Jun 16 high and a key resistance. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at 1.2063, the Jul 29 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Trading At Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 0.8627 High Jul 4
• RES 3: 0.8585 High Jul 21 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8487 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8426/55 High Jul 27 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8363 @ 06:37 BST Aug 3
• SUP 1: 0.8340 Low Aug 2
• SUP 2: 0.8313 Low Apr 22
• SUP 3: 0.8263 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 and a key support

EURGBP is trading at its recent lows and the outlook is bearish. Recent weakness has reinforced a bearish theme and the latest spell of weakness has also resulted in a print below 0.8367, the May 2 low. A continuation lower would open 0.8313 next, the Apr 22 low. The Jul 21 high of 0.8585 has been defined as a key short-term resistance where a break would reinstate a bullish theme. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.8455, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Bounce Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 137.46 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 136.30 Former channel support drawn from the Mar 4 low
• RES 2: 135.48 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 134.08 50-Day EMA
• PRICE: 133.05 @ 06:49 BST Aug 3
• SUP 1: 130.41/130.00 Low Aug 2 / Round number support
• SUP 2: 129.51 Low Jun 2
• SUP 3: 128.64 Low Jun 1
• SUP 4: 127.53 Low May 31

USDJPY recovered losses into the Tuesday close, having found support at 130.41. Gains are considered corrective - for now. Recent weakness has resulted in the break of a number of important technical chart points. A bull channel breakout - drawn from the Mar 4 low - signals a short-term reversal. Support at 131.50, Jun 16 low has also been cleared. A resumption of weakness would open 130.00. Initial resistance is at 134.08, the 50-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Hammer Candle Pattern?

• RES 4: 139.41 High Jul 28
• RES 3: 138.46 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 136.87 Low Jul 8 and recent breakout level
• RES 1: 136.00 Intraday high
• PRICE: 135.49 @ 07:00 BST Aug 3
• SUP 1: 133.40 Low Aug2
• SUP 2: 132.66 Low May 12 and a key support
• SUP 3: 131.99 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - Jun 28 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1300.72 Low Mar 17

EURJPY rallied into the close yesterday to erase the day’s losses. The bounce highlights a potential hammer formation. If confirmed, this pattern would suggest a reversal of the recent downleg. A stronger bounce would open 138.46, the 20-day EMA. A resumption of weakness and a breach of yesterday’s 133.40 low would resume the bear cycle and open 132.66, the May 12 low. Initial firm resistance is 136.87.

AUDUSD TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 0.7141 76.4% retracement of the Jun 3 - Jul 14 downleg
• RES 3: 0.7069 High Jun 16
• RES 2: 0.7047/53 High Aug 1 / 61.8% of the Jun 3 - Jul 14 downleg
• RES 1: 0.6960 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6937 @ 08:15 BST Aug 3
• SUP 1: 0.6886 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.6859 Low Jul 21
• SUP 3: 0.6786/6682 Low Jul 18 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing

AUDUSD traded higher Monday, but has since faced resistance and traded sharply lower Tuesday. The short-term outlook is bullish and for now, the pullback is considered corrective. A resumption of strength, and a break of resistance at 0.7047, Monday’s high, would open the Jun 16 high at 0.7069. Further out there is scope for a climb towards 0.7141, a Fibonacci retracement. The next support to watch is 0.6859, the Jul 21 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 1.3224 High Jul 14 and key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3135/3186 High Jul 15 / 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 2: 1.3038 High Jul 18
• RES 1: 1.2892/2947 Intraday high / High Jul 25
• PRICE: 1.2860 @ 08:10 BST Aug 3
• SUP 1: 1.2767/63 Low Aug 01 / Low Jun 13
• SUP 2: 1.2685 76.4% retracement of the Jun 8 - Jul 14 upleg
• SUP 3: 1.2598 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.2549 Low Jun 9

USDCAD maintains a bearish theme and Monday’s low print reinforces current conditions. Short-term gains are considered corrective - for now. 1.2819, the Jun 28 low, has been pierced. A clear break would strengthen bearish conditions and this would open 1.2763, the Jun 13 low and 1.2685, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is at 1.2947, Jul 25 high. A break is required to ease the current bearish threat.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 161.38 2.00 projection of the Jun 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 160.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 159.79 High Apr 4 (cont)
• RES 1: 159.70 High AUg 3
• PRICE: 157.77 @ 05:11 BST Aug 3
• SUP 1: 156.21/154.17 Low Jul 29 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 152.62 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 149.69 Low Jul 21 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 148.24 Low Jul 1

Bund futures maintain a bullish tone and yesterday’s fresh trend high reinforces current short-term conditions. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 159.79 next, the Apr 4 high (cont). Key trend support has been defined at 149.69, Jul 21 low. A break is required to signal a potential top. Initial firm support is 154.17, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 130.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 129.950 2.00 projection of the Jun 16 -24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 129.001 1.764 projection of the Jun 16 -24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 128.760 High Aug 2
• PRICE: 127.840 @ 05:21 BST Aug 3
• SUP 1: 126.450/126.366 Low Jul 28 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 125.622 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 124.030 Low Jul 21 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 4: 123.010 Low Jun 30

The Bobl futures outlook remains bullish and yesterday’s high print strengthens current conditions. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 129.001 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support has been defined at 124.030, Jul 21 low. A break would signal a reversal. Initial support is at last Thursday’s 126.450 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Bull Trend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 110.855 High Apr 4 (cont)
• RES 3: 110.500 High May 26 (cont)
• RES 2: 110.412 1.50 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 110.380 High Aug 2
• PRICE: 110.050 @ 05:28 BST Aug 3
• SUP 1: 109.733 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 109.670 Low Jul 28
• SUP 3: 109.547 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 109.350 Low Jul 22

Schatz futures maintain a bullish tone despite pulling back from yesterday’s high print of 110.380. The move higher confirms a resumption of the current uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, signalling scope for a continuation of the bull cycle. The focus is on 110.412 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is unchanged at 108.950, the Jul 21 low. Initial firm support is seen at 109.733, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 121.88 High Apr 5 (cont)
• RES 3: 121.07 High May 12 (cont)
• RES 2: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 119.84 High Aug 2
• PRICE: 118.51 @ Close Aug 2
• SUP 1: 117.72 Low Aug 1
• SUP 2: 116.71/70 20-day EMA / Low Jul 28
• SUP 3: 116.18 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 114.08/113.03 Low Jul 8 / Low Jun 30

The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and fresh highs yesterday reinforce this setup. Continued gains highlight an extension of the recent break of resistance at 117.09, the Jul 6 high. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and sights are on the 120.00 handle next. Key short-term support is at 114.08, the Jul 8 low. Initial firm support is at 116.71, the 20-day EMA.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Northbound

• RES 4:131.61 High Apr 29 (cont)
• RES 3: 131.24 High May 12 (cont)
• RES 2: 130.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 129.27 High Aug 2
• PRICE: 127.47 @ Close Aug 2
• SUP 1: 126.40/124.54 Low Aug 1 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 122.81/119.57 Low Jul 28 / Low Jul 21 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 118.60 Low Jun 22
• SUP 4: 115.72 Low Jun 16

The BTP futures trend condition remains bullish and the contract traded higher again Tuesday. Recent gains have resulted in a break of key resistance at 126.41, Jul 1 high. The move reinforces conditions for bulls and highlights a broader bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows - the definition of an uptrend. Attention is on the 130.00 handle next. Initial firm support lies at 122.81, Jul 28 low. Key trend support is at 119.57, Jul 21 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Dips Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 3855.00 High Apr 21
• RES 3: 3840.00 High Jun 6 and key resistance
• RES 2: 3774.00 High Jun 9
• RES 1: 3727.00 High Jul 29
• PRICE: 3675.00 @ 05:56 BST Aug 3
• SUP 1: 3580.10/3467.00 50-day EMA / Low Jul 18 / 19
• SUP 2: 3343.00 Low Jul 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3321.30 50.0% of the major 2020 - 2021 upleg (cont)
• SUP 4: 3300.00 Round number support

EUROSTOXX 50 futures trend conditions remain bullish following last week’s gains and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. The contract has recently pierced the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 6 - Jul 5 downleg, at 3722.40. A clear breach of this chart point would open 3774.00 next, the Jun 9 high. Key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at 3343.00, the Jul 5 low. Initial firm support to watch is 3580.10, the 50-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Bulls Still In The Driver's Seat

• RES 4: 4345.75 2.00 proj of the Jun 17 - 28 - Jul 14 price swing
• RES 3: 4306.50 High May 4
• RES 2: 4204.75 High May 31 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 4147.25 High Aug 01
• PRICE: 4105.00 @ 06:56 BST Aug 3
• SUP 1: 3978.47/13.25 50-day EMA / Low Jul 26 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 3820.25 Low Jul 18
• SUP 3: 3723.75/3639.00 Low Jul 14 / Low Jun 17 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3578.27 0.618 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing

S&P E-Minis remain below recent highs. The short-term outlook is bullish and short-term dips are considered corrective. For bulls, a break of Monday’s 4147.25 high would confirm a resumption of recent gains and open 4204.75 next, the May 31 high and the next key resistance. On the downside, initial trend support has been defined at 3913.25, the Jul 26 low. A break would highlight a possible reversal.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V2) Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $115.31- High Jun 17
• RES 3: $112.92 - High Jun 29 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $110.72 - High Jul 5
• RES 1: $106.50 - High Jul 29 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $100.54 @ 07:01 BST Aug 3
• SUP 1: $96.70 - Low Jul 25 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: $94.37/91.22 - Low Jul 15 / Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $90.00 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $88.31 - Low Mar 9 and a key support

Brent futures are unchanged. The contract traded lower Monday, extending the pullback from Friday’s $106.50 high. This highlights a failed attempt at breaching the 50-day EMA - a key pivot resistance. The EMA intersects at $103.35. This move lower also highlights a potential reversal of the Jul 14 - 29 bull cycle, and has exposed support at $96.70, Jul 25 low. Key resistance has been defined at $106.50.

WTI TECHS: (U2) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: $113.87 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $111.14 - High Jun 29
• RES 2: $108.28 - High Jul 5
• RES 1: $101.88 - High Jul 29 and a key near-term resistance
• PRICE: $94.41 @ 07:06 BST Aug 3
• SUP 1: $92.42/88.23 - Low Aug 01 / Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $85.37 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: $83.51 - 1.50 projection of the Jun 8 - 22 - 29 price swing
• SUP 4: $81.34 - 1.618 projection of the Jun 8 - 22 - 29 price swing

WTI futures remain vulnerable, having traded sharply lower Monday. The contract has recently failed to clear key resistance around the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at $100.25. Price has also pierced support at $93.01, the Jul 25 low. A clear break would strengthen bearish conditions and open $88.23, Jul 14 low and key support. Key resistance has been defined at $101.88, Jul 29 high. A break of this level would reinstate a bullish theme.

GOLD TECHS: Watching Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $1847.9 - High Jun 22
• RES 3: $1825.1 - High Jun 30
• RES 2: $1807.1 - Trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high
• RES 1: $1788.1 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1769.3 @ 07:21 BST Aug 3
• SUP 1: $1748.9 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1711.7/1681.0 - Low Jul 27 / 21
• SUP 3: $1680.5 - 1.764 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 4: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 2021

Gold maintains a firmer tone despite the pullback from yesterday’s high. Attention is on resistance at the 50-day EMA, at $1783.80. The average was pierced yesterday, a clear break would suggest potential for a bullish extension and expose trendline resistance at $1807.1. A breach of the trendline would represent an important technical break. On the downside, initial firm support lies at $1711.7, the Jul 27 low. Key support is at $1681.0.

SILVER TECHS: 50-Day EMA Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 3: $21.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 1: $20.508 - High Aug 2
• PRICE: $20.003 @ 07:25 BST Aug 3
• SUP 1: $19.062 - Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: $18.146/18.000 - Low Jul 14 / Round number support
• SUP 3: $17.312 - 3.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 4: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020

Silver maintains a bullish tone despite the latest pullback. The metal has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 20.358. The EMA represents a key short-term resistance and a clear break would strengthen the current bull cycle. This would open, $21.540, the Jun 27 high. On the downside, the broader downtrend remains intact and recent gains are still considered corrective. Key support has been defined at $18.146, the Jul 14 low and bear trigger.