MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bunds Still Vulnerable

Price Signal Summary - Bunds Still Vulnerable

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis maintain a bullish tone. The focus is on 4239.26, 1.764 projection of the Feb 1 - Feb 16 - Mar 4 price swing. Key support is unchanged at 4110.50, Apr 21 low.
• In FX, EURUSD last week cleared the bear channel resistance drawn off the Jan 6 high but has failed to remain above it. The warning is a false break and if correct highlights a bearish threat. Watch support at, 1.2009/1984, the 20- and 50-day EMAs. GBPUSD remains below 1.4009, Apr 20 high. The break Friday of support at 1.3824, Apr 22 low strengthens a bearish case. The focus is on 1.3717, Apr 16 low. The USDJPY continues to climb and remains bullish following last week's gains. The focus is on 109.96 next, Apr 9 high.
• On the commodity front, the Gold outlook is bullish and the focus is on $1805.7, Feb 25 high. Watch support at $1756.2, Apr 29 low. Brent (M1) is off recent highs, watch support at $65.38, the 20-day EMA. WTI (M1) support to watch at the 20-day EMA is $62.33. The trend in both contracts remains up.
• In the FI space, Bunds (M1) have breached 170.05, 76.4% of the Feb 25 - Mar 25 rally. This opens 169.24, Feb 25 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Threat

• RES 4: 1.2243 High Feb 25 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2184 High Feb 26
• RES 2: 1.2150 High Apr 29
• RES 1: 1.2085 61.8% of Friday's range
• PRICE: 1.2040 @ 05:56 BST May 4
• SUP 1: 1.2014/1987 20- and 50-day EMAs
• SUP 2: 1.1943 Low Apr 19
• SUP 3: 1.1861 Low Apr 7 and 8
• SUP 4: 1.1795 Low Apr 6

EURUSD traded sharply lower on Apr 30 and this threatens the recent bullish theme. Last week saw price trade above the bear channel top drawn off the Jan 6 high. The failure to follow through however does warn of a false break and a key S/T resistance has been defined at 1.2150, Apr 29 high. A firm support lies at 1.2014/1987, the 20 and 50-day EMAs. A break would trigger a stronger sell-off. Clearance of 1.2150 is needed to reinstate the uptrend.

GBPUSD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 1.4179 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.4103 76.4% retracement of the Feb 24 - Apr 12 downleg
• RES 2: 1.4009/17 High Apr 20 / High Mar 4
• RES 1: 1.3977 High Apr 29
• PRICE: 1.3876 @ 06:05 BST May 4
• SUP 1: 1.3801 Low May 3
• SUP 2: 1.3717 Low Apr 16
• SUP 3: 1.3670/69 Low Mar 25 / Low Apr 12 and key support
• SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Apr 2

GBPUSD traded sharply lower Apr 30 and in the process breached support at 1.3824, Apr 22 low. Despite yesterday's recovery, a bearish threat remains present. The move below 1.3824 and the failure to tackle resistance at 1.4009, Apr 20 high, highlights this threat and the risk of a pullback towards 1.3669, Apr 12 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish case. Cable needs to clear resistance at 1.4009 to reinstate a bullish theme.

EURGBP TECHS: Attention Is On Resistance

• RES 4: 0.8840 High Feb 4
• RES 3: 0.8791/8856 High Feb 12 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 1: 0.8721 High Apr 26
• PRICE: 0.8675 @ 06:12 BST May 4
• SUP 1: 0.8663 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8589 Low Apr 19 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8430 Low Feb 27, 2020

EURGBP edged lower yesterday but still remains in consolidation mode. The cross on Apr 26 probed former resistance at 0.8719, Apr 16 high. The recovery from 0.8589, Apr 19 low signals scope for an extension higher and a clear breach of 0.8719 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 4. This would open 0.8731, Feb 26 high and 0.8762, a retracement level. Key support to watch is 0.8589. A break would be bearish.

USDJPY TECHS: Heading North

• RES 4: 111.30 High Mar 26, 2020
• RES 3: 110.97 High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 110.55 High Apr 6
• RES 1: 109.70/96 High May 3 / High Apr 9
• PRICE: 109.30 @ 06:19 BST May 4
• SUP 1: 108.44 Low Apr 29
• SUP 2: 107.48 Low Apr 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 106.97 Low Mar 4
• SUP 4: 106.78 50.0% retracement of the Jan - Mar rally

The USDJPY outlook remains bullish despite yesterday's move lower. The pair recently traded below trendline support drawn off the Jan 6 low however last week's recovery means the trendline remains intact and a key support has been defined at 107.48, Apr 23 low. Further gains are likely and attention is on 109.96, Apr 9 high. Initial support lies at 108.44, Apr 29 low. A break of 107.48 though is required to reinstate a bearish theme.

EURJPY TECHS: Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 133.31/69 Bull channel top / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 133.13 High Sep 21, 2018 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 132.68 High Sep 27, 2018
• RES 1: 132 36/37 2.236 of Jun-Sep-Oct 2020 swing/High Apr 29
• PRICE: 131.60 @ 06:28 BST May 4
• SUP 1: 130.97 High Apr 20 and recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 130.70 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 130.57 Low Apr 27
• SUP 4: 129.80 Bull channel base drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low

EURJPY is consolidating but maintains a bullish focus following last week's gains. The cross has cleared 130.97, Apr 20 high and the focus is on 132.36, a Fibonacci projection. This level has recently been tested and a break would signal scope for an extension higher, as the cross appreciates within its bull channel, drawn off the Oct 30 2020 low. Moving average studies are in a bull mode reinforcing current conditions. Support is at 130.57.

AUDUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 0.8007 High Feb 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.7895 76.4% retracement of the Feb 25 - Apr 1 sell-off
• RES 2: 0.7849 High Mar 18 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 0.7816/18 High Apr 20 / 29
• PRICE: 0.7738 @ 06:40 BST May 4
• SUP 1: 0.7691 Low Apr 22 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 0.7635 Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: 0.7586 Low Apr 13
• SUP 4: 0.7532/17 Low Apr 1 and the bear trigger / Low Dec 22

AUDUSD remains within its range and above 0.7691, Apr 22 low. A bullish price structure dominates following the recent break of a trendline resistance drawn off the Feb 25 high and a climb back above the neckline of a head and shoulders reversal pattern. Resistance is unchanged at 0.7816/18 the 18 Apr 29 highs. A clear break would open 0.7849, the Mar 18 high. Key short-term support is unchanged too at 0.7691, a breach would be bearish.

USDCAD TECHS: Bears Hold All The Cards

• RES 4: 1.2700 High Mar 8
• RES 3: 1.2653 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.2441/91 20-day EMA / High Apr 26
• RES 1: 1.2365/2419 Low Mar 18 / High Apr 27
• PRICE: 1.2293 @ 06:46 BST May 4
• SUP 1: 1.2266 Low Apr 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2239 1.236 proj of Jan 28 - Feb 25 - Feb 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2178 1.382 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 25 - Feb 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.2157 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD remains in a bearish mode following last week's move to fresh cycle lows. The break of 1.2365, Mar 18 low confirms a resumption of the underlying downtrend that has been in place since March 2020. Moving average studies are in a bear mode, this reinforces current trend conditions. The focus is on 1.2239, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial resistance is at 1.2365 and 1.2419. The latter is the Apr 27 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M1) Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 171.62 High Apr 14
• RES 3: 171.27 High Apr 22 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 170.67 High Apr 28
• RES 1: 170.34 High Apr 3
• PRICE: 170.12 @ 05:04 BST May 4
• SUP 1: 169.47/24 Low Apr 3 / Low Feb 24 and major support
• SUP 2: 168.96 0.618 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 25 - Mar 25 price swing
• SUP 3: 168.52 Low Mar 20, 2020 (cont)
• SUP 4: 168.09 0.764 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 25 - Mar 25 price swing

Bund futures sold off yesterday however the contract did find support at the day low of 169.47. The outlook remains bearish with the recent break of 170.05, 76.4% of the Feb 25 - Mar 25 upleg, reinforcing a bearish theme. This has opened the key support handle at 169.24, Feb 25 low. Clearance of this key level would confirm a resumption of the underlying downtrend. Initial resistance is seen at yesterday's 170.34 intraday high.

BOBL TECHS: (M1) Bearish Price Structure

• RES 4: 135.350 High Apr 8 and key near-term resistance
• RES 3: 135.180 High Apr 14
• RES 2: 134.050 High Apr 22 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 134.880 High Apr 29
• PRICE: 134.790 @ 05:05 BST May 4
• SUP 1: 134.590 Low Apr 29
• SUP 2: 134.466 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 3: 134.140 Low Feb 26 and key support
• SUP 4: 134.000 Round number support

Bobl futures traded lower Apr 29. This resulted in a break of support at 134.660, Apr 20 / 28 low and last week's bear trigger. The break lower strengthens a bearish case and the outlook remains bearish. Scope is for a move towards 134.466, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this retracement would open the key support at 134.140, Feb 26 low. A key short-term resistance has been defined at 135.050, Apr 22 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M1) Probes Key Support

• RES 4: 112.165 High Mar 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 112.150 High Apr 8
• RES 2: 112.120 High Apr 22 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 112.097 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 112.085 @ 05:23 BST May 4
• SUP 1: 112.060/055 Congestion support in Mar and Apr / Low Apr 3
• SUP 2: 112.053 50.0% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 3: 112.026 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 4: 111.993 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally

Schatz futures remain below resistance at 112.120, Apr 22 high and below the 20-day EMA at 112.097. Attention is on the key support at 112.060, a level that provided support in March and April. It was probed yesterday. A clear break would strengthen a bearish case and reinstate the current bear leg paving the way for weakness towards 112.053 and 112.026, Fibonacci retracements. On the upside, a breach of 112.120 alters the picture.

GILT TECHS: (M1) Bears Remain In Charge

• RES 4: 129.75 High Feb 19
• RES 3: 129.09/27 High Apr 23 and the reversal trigger / High Mar 2
• RES 2: 128.66 High Apr 26
• RES 1: 128.28 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 127.67 @ Close Apr 30
• SUP 1: 127.40 Low Apr 29
• SUP 2: 127.32 Low Apr 1
• SUP 3: 126.79 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 126.55 Low Apr 17, 2019 (cont)

Gilt futures traded lower last week breaching the former support at 127.81, Apr 14 low. Last week's move strengthens a bearish case following the recent pullback from 129.09, Apr 23 high and the area of resistance around the 50-day EMA. An extension lower would open 127.32, Apr 1 low ahead of the key support at 126.79, Mar 18 low. Key resistance is at 129.09. A break of this level would instead signal a reversal.

BTP TECHS: (M1) Pressures Key Support

• RES 4: 150.39 High Mar 11 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 149.88 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 149.47 High Apr 8
• RES 1: 148.04/65 20-day EMA / High Apr 22
• PRICE: 147.48 @ Close May 3
• SUP 1: 146.70 Low May 3
• SUP 2: 146.54 0.764 proj of the Feb 12 - 26 - Mar 11 price swing
• SUP 3: 146.16 Low Sep 21, 2020 (cont)
• SUP 4: 145.56 Low Sep 15, 2020 (cont)

BTP futures remain bearish following last week's move lower and despite the recovery from yesterday's low. The contract has probed key support at 146.84, Feb 26 low and the bear trigger. A clear breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that has been in place since Feb 12. This would open 146.54 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 148.65, Apr 22 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (M1) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 4099.00 1.00 proj of of the Mar - Jul - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 3: 4023.00 Low Aug 16, 2007
• RES 2: 4000.00 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 3993.00 High Apr 29
• PRICE: 3960.00 @ 05:49 BST May 4
• SUP 1: 3922.00 Low Apr 30
• SUP 2: 3889.00 Low Apr 20
• SUP 3: 3855.00 Low Mar 31
• SUP 4: 3830.23 50-day EMA

EUROSTOXX 50 on Apr 16 found resistance at 4000.00 and selling pressure dominated during the Apr 20 session signalling a short-term bearish threat. The trend is overbought and any pullback would allow this to unwind. Attention is on the 20-day EMA. A clear break, together with a move below 3889.00, Apr 20 low would signal scope for a deeper sell-off towards the 50-day EMA at 3830.23. For bulls, a breach of 4000.00 resumes the uptrend.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N1) Bullish Price Structure

• RES 4: $71.75 - High Jan 8 2020 (cont)
• RES 3: $69.73 - High Mar 8 and the key bull trigger
• RES 2: $68.73 - High Mar 15
• RES 1: $68.44 - High Apr 29
• PRICE: $67 52 06:41 BST May 4
• SUP 1: $65.59 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $63.93/73 - Low Apr 26 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $61.97 - Low Apr 5
• SUP 4: $60.05 - Low Mar 23

Brent crude futures maintain a firmer tone despite pulling back from $68.44, Apr 29 high. The contract last week traded above resistance at $67.41, Apr 20 high. This paves the way for a climb towards $68.73, Mar 15 high and the key hurdle for bulls at $69.73, Mar 8 high. A break of this latter resistance would confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $63.93, Apr 26 low.

WTI TECHS: (M1) Bullish Theme

• RES 4: $67.95 - Hugh Oct 29, 2018
• RES 3: $67.29 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $66.15 - High Mar 15
• RES 1: $65.47 - High Apr 29
• PRICE: $64.48 @ 06:52 BST May 4
• SUP 1: $62.53 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $60.61 - Low Apr 22 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $58.77 - Low Apr 12
• SUP 4: $57.68 - Low Apr 5

WTI futures maintain a bullish tone despite the pullback from last week's high of $65.47 on Apr 29. Price last week breached resistance at $64.38, Apr 20 high. The break strengthens a short-term bullish case and negates recent bearish signals. Attention is on $66.15, Mar 15 high ahead of the key hurdle for bulls at $67.29, Mar 8 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $60.61, Apr 22 low. A break would be bearish.

GOLD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $1818.1 - 50.0% retracement of the Jan 6 - Mar 8 sell-off
• RES 3: $1816.0 - High Feb 23
• RES 2: $1805.7 - High Feb 25
• RES 1: $1797.998.00 - High Apr 22 / High MAy 3
• PRICE: $1784.8 @ 07:13 BST May 4
• SUP 1: $1756.2 - Low Apr 29
• SUP 2: $1721.4 - Low Apr 5 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $1705.9 - Low Apr 1
• SUP 4: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger

Gold remains above support and underlying conditions are bullish. Yesterday's gains reinforce a bullish theme. The yellow metal has defined a key short-term support at $1756.2 on Apr 29. Attention is on the key resistance at $1797.9, Apr 22 high. This was probed yesterday and a clear break would confirm a resumption of recent gains. For bears, a break of $1756.2 would instead signal scope for a deeper pullback.

SILVER TECHS: Breaches Resistance

• RES 4: $28.609 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 1 - Mar 31 sell-off
• RES 3: $28.328 - High Feb 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $27.686 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb 1 - Mar 31 sell-off
• RES 1: $26.995 - High May 3
• PRICE: $26.750 @ 07:24 BST May 4
• SUP 1: $25.718 - Low Apr 29 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: $25.636 - Low Apr 19
• SUP 3: $25.199 - Low Apr 14
• SUP 4: $24.686 - Low Apr 13

Silver rallied yesterday and traded above resistance at $26.645, Apr 21 high. This strengthens a bullish case and confirms a resumption of the recovery that started Mar 31. With moving average signals also in a bull mode, further gains are likely towards $27.686 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $25.718, Apr 29 low. A break is required to dampen the current bullish mood.