MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bunds Volatile, Trend Remains Lower

Price Signal Summary – Bunds Volatile, Trend Remains Lower

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis remain bullish. Futures rallied Tuesday and registered a fresh all-time high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and the focus is on 4591.25, a Fibonacci projection. Trend signals such as moving average studies remain in a bull mode. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are holding onto recent gains. The contract probed key resistance at 4223.00 yesterday, the Sep 6 high and the key bull trigger.
• In FX, EURUSD broke higher Thursday, allowing the current bullish outlook to play out as prices topped the 50-day EMA resistance. A clear break of the average is required to strengthen the case for bulls. GBPUSD traded higher yesterday and remains above this week's low of 1.3710. Recent price action has not threatened the current uptrend given the shallow nature of the pullback and a bullish short-term condition remains intact.
• On the commodity front, Gold is unchanged and is consolidating. The yellow metal maintains a positive short-term tone and remains above the 50-day EMA. Price recently cleared resistance at $1800.6, Oct 14 high and this highlights a S/T bullish theme. WTI futures faced resistance earlier this week and the contract remains below recent highs. Attention is on the 20-day EMA that intersects at $80.58. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper pullback and open $78.78, Oct 13 low.
• In the FI space, Bund futures traded in a volatile manner yesterday however key resistance parameters weren't challenged and the contract remains in a downtrend. The recent break of 168.21, Oct 12 low marked a resumption of the bear trend and opens 167.79 next, a Fibonacci projection. Gilt futures rallied Wednesday signalling a short-term reversal. In pattern terms, Wednesday's breach of 125.27, Oct 14 high highlights a double bottom reversal.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: All Eyes On The Bear Channel Top

• RES 4: 1.1821 High Sep 16
• RES 3: 1.17155 / High Sep 22
• RES 2: 11.1706 Bear channel top drawn from the Jun 1 high
• RES 1: 1.1692 High Oct 28
• PRICE: 1.1667 @ 16:10 BST Oct 28
• SUP 1: 1.1582/24 Low Oct 28 / Low Oct 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1493 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Jan '21 bull phase
• SUP 3: 1.1469 1.236 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1371 Bear channel base drawn from the Jun 1 high

EURUSD broke higher Thursday, allowing the current bullish outlook to play out as prices topped the 50-day EMA resistance. A clear break of the average is required to strengthen the case for bulls and note that a second key resistance intersects at 1.1706, the top of a bear channel drawn off the Jun 1 high. A breach of this level would signal a reversal. Key short-term support to watch is at 1.1582, the Oct 28 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Holding Above Recent Lows

• RES 4: 1.3983 High Jul 30
• RES 3: 1.3958 High Aug 4
• RES 2: 1.3913 High Sep 14 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3835 High Oct 20
• PRICE: 1.3790 @ 06:16 BST Oct 29
• SUP 1: 1.3710 Low Oct 27
• SUP 2: 1.3655 Low Oct 14
• SUP 3: 1.3544 Low Oct 6
• SUP 4: 1.3485/12 2.0% 10-dma env / Low Sep 29 and bear trigger

GBPUSD traded higher yesterday and remains above this week's low of 1.3710. Recent price action has not threatened the current uptrend given the shallow nature of the pullback and a bullish short-term condition remains intact. A break of 1.3835, Oct 20 high would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and signal scope for a climb towards key resistance at 1.3913, Sep 14 high. 1.3710 marks a key short-term support, Wednesday's low.

EURGBP TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 0.8624/58 High Oct 1 / High Sep 29
• RES 3: 0.8573 High Oct 4
• RES 2: 0.8511 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8476 High Oct 26
• PRICE: 0.8461 @ 06:21 BST Oct 29
• SUP 1: 0.8403 Low Oct 26
• SUP 2: 0.8357/56 1.0% 10-dma envelope / Low Feb 26, 2020
• SUP 3: 0.8339 Low Feb 25, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.8282 Feb 2020 low and a major support

EURGBP traded lower Tuesday but has since found support and remains in its recent consolidative range. For bears, the cross has breached 0.8422, Oct 21/22 low and this reinforces bearish conditions, signalling scope for weakness below 0.8400 towards 0.8357, a vol based support and 0.8356, the Feb 26, 2020 low. Note that price is also approaching the base of a broad multi-year range at 0.8300. Initial firm resistance is 0.8476.

USDJPY TECHS: Holding Above Near-Term Support

• RES 4: 116.08 1.764 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 price swing
• RES 3: 115.51 High Mar 10, 2017
• RES 2: 114.99 1.50 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 price swing
• RES 1: 114.70/73 High Oct 20 / High Nov 6, 2017
• PRICE: 113.62 @ 06:26 BST Oct 29
• SUP 1: 113.14/00 20-day EMA / Low Oct 12
• SUP 2: 112.08 High Sep 30 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 111.51 Low Oct 8
• SUP 4: 110.82/80 Low Oct 4 / High Aug 11

USDJPY remains in a corrective cycle and below recent highs. Attention is on support at 113.14, the 20-day EMA and 113.00, the Oct 12 low. A break of this support zone would signal scope for a deeper pullback and open 112.08, Sep 30 high and a recent breakout level. Any deeper short-term pullback however would be considered corrective. Trend conditions remain bullish and the trigger for a resumption of the uptrend is 114.70.

EURJPY TECHS: 20-Day EMA Provides Support

• RES 4: 134.40 2.382 proj of the Sep 22 - 29 - Oct 6 price swing
• RES 3: 134.13 High Jun 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 133.76 High Jun 10
• RES 1: 133.48 High Oct 20
• PRICE: 132.66 @ 06:31 BST Oct 29
• SUP 1: 131.55 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 130.75/71 Sep 3 high / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 129.28 Low Oct 11
• SUP 4: 128.94 Low Oct 8

EURJPY traded higher yesterday and has found support just ahead of its 20-day EMA. Attention remains on this EMA that intersects at 131.55 today. A break would suggest scope for a deeper corrective pullback and expose 130.75, Sep3 high and a recent breakout level and 130.71, the 50-day EMA. Trend signals continue to point north, the trigger for a resumption of gains is 133.48, the Oct 20 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Eyeing The 200-Day MA

• RES 4: 0.7716 High Jun 16
• RES 3: 0.7630 1.236 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 - Sep 29 price swing
• RES 2: 0.7599 High Jul 6
• RES 1: 0.7557/59 50.0% of the Feb - Aug sell-off / 200-Day MA
• PRICE: 0.7542 @ 06:49 BST Oct 29
• SUP 1: 0.7454 Low Oct 22
• SUP 2: 0.7426/7383 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.7288 Low Oct 8
• SUP 4: 0.7226/7170 Low Oct 6 / Low Sep 29

AUDUSD appreciated yesterday and breached the recent Oct 21 high of 0.7546. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend, hitting new multi-month highs. The climb has narrowed the gap with the 200-dma at 0.7559. A break of the average would strengthen bullish conditions and extend the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are set on 0.7599 next, the Jul 6 high. Firm support is seen at 0.7383, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Consolidating

• RES 4: 1.2648 High Oct 6
• RES 3: 1.2512 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.2494 Low Sep 3 and a recent breakout level
• RES 1: 1.2438 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2358 @ 06:55 BST Oct 29
• SUP 1: 1.2288 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2253 Low Jun 23
• SUP 3: 1.2229 76.4% retracement of the Jun - Aug rally
• SUP 4: 1.2157 Low Jun 16

USDCAD is unchanged and remains in a range. Recent activity still appears to be a bear flag. This reinforces current bearish conditions signalling scope for a break lower near-term. A bearish theme follows the recent break of the Jul 30 low of 1.2422 that has opened 1.2253 next, the Jun 23 low. Note too that moving average conditions remain in a bear mode. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2494, Sep 3 low. A break would ease bearish pressure.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z1) Key Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 171.72 High Sep 23
• RES 3: 170.55 High Oct 4
• RES 2: 170.27 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 169.92 High Oct 14 and key resistance
• PRICE: 168.79 @ 04:53 BST Oct 29
• SUP 1: 168.29 Low Oct 28
• SUP 2: 167.84/79 Low Oct 22 / 2.50 proj of the Sep 9 - 17 - 21 swing
• SUP 3: 167.52 Low Mar 19 2020
• SUP 4: 166.33 Low May 21 2019

Bund futures traded in a volatile manner yesterday however key resistance parameters weren't challenged and the contract remains in a downtrend. The recent break of 168.21, Oct 12 low marked a resumption of the bear trend and opens 167.79 next, a Fibonacci projection and 167.52, the Mar 19, 2020 low (cont). MA signals continue to point south. Key resistance is unchanged at 169.92, the Oct 14 high. A break is needed to signal a reversal.

BOBL TECHS: (Z1) Fresh Trend Lows

• RES 4: 135.200 Low Sep 17, high Oct 4 and recent breakout level
• RES 3: 135.060 High Oct 7
• RES 2: 134.860 High Oct 14 and key resistance
• RES 1: 134.610 High Oct 28
• PRICE: 134.080 @ 05:00 BST Oct 29
• SUP 1: 133.760 Low Oct 28
• SUP 2: 133.772 1.236 proj of the Oct 4 - 13 - 14 price swing
• SUP 3: 133.340 Low Mar 19 and key medium-term support
• SUP 4: 133.308 1.764 proj of the Oct 4 - 13 - 14 price swing

Bobl futures swung wildly yesterday. A downtrend remains intact and the contract did register a fresh trend low of 133.760. This reinforces bearish conditions and maintains a price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Key short-term trend resistance is at 134.860, Oct 14 high and a break is required to signal scope for a short-term reversal. With momentum still pointing south, the focus is on 133.772 next, a Fibonacci projection.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z1) Resumes Its Downtrend

• RES 4: 112.255 High Sep 23 and Oct 5
• RES 3: 112.220 High Oct 14
• RES 2: 112.160 High Oct 26 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 112.053 50.0% retracement of the Oct 26 - 28 downleg
• PRICE: 112.000 @ 05:18 BST Oct 29
• SUP 1: 111.945 Low Oct 28
• SUP 2: 111.925 1.236 proj of the Oct 14 - 19 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 111.897 1.382 proj of the Oct 14 - 19 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 111.865 Low Jun 5/8 2020 low (cont)

From a trend perspective, Schatz futures remain bearish and yesterday's volatile price action reinforced this theme. The break of 112.030, Oct 19 low confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This signals scope for weakness towards 111.865, the Jun 5 / 8, 2020 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 112.160, Oct 26 high.

GILT TECHS: (Z1) Double Bottom Reversal Still In Play

• RES 4: 127.09 61.8% retracement of the Aug - Oct downleg
• RES 3: 126.84 Low Sep 17
• RES 2: 126.39 50.0% retracement of the Aug - Oct downleg
• RES 1: 125.87 High Oct 27
• PRICE: 125.49 @ Close Oct 28
• SUP 1: 124.55 Low Oct 27
• SUP 2: 123.43 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 123.16 Low Feb 27, 2019 (cont)
• SUP 4: 122.75 2.236 proj of the Aug 31 - Sep 17 - 21 price swing

Gilt futures rallied Wednesday signalling a short-term reversal. In pattern terms, Wednesday's breach of 125.27, Oct 14 high highlights a double bottom reversal. The close above 125.27 confirms this pattern and sets the scene for an extension higher near-term above 126.00 towards 126.39, a retracement level. Initial support is at 124.55. Key trend support has been defined at 123.43, Oct 21 low.

BTP TECHS: (Z1) Clears The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 154.64 High Sep 22 / 23
• RES 3: 153.59 High Sep 24
• RES 2: 152.54/87 High Oct 14 / High Oct 1
• RES 1: 151.89 High Oct 27 and key resistance
• PRICE: 150.44 @ Close Oct 28
• SUP 1: 149.54 Low Oct 28
• SUP 2: 148.90 1.00 proj of the Sep 23 - Oct 6 - 14 price swing
• SUP 3: 148.77 61.8% retracement of the May - Aug rally (cont)
• SUP 4: 148.04 1.236 proj of the Sep 23 - Oct 6 - 14 price swing

BTP futures sold off sharply yesterday. This resulted in a break of 150.38, the Oct 22 low and confirms a resumption of the underlying downtrend. The break lower maintains and extends the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. With moving average signals also pointing south, the focus shifts to 148.90, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 151.89, Oct 27 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (Z1) Probes Key Resistance

• RES 4: 4400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 4385.00 1.236 proj of Mar 19- Jul 21-Oct 30 2020 swing (cont)
• RES 2: 4290.50 1.00 proj of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 - Oct 6 price swing
• RES 1: 4226.00 High Oct 28
• PRICE: 4205.50 @ 05:43 BST Oct 29
• SUP 1: 4121.30 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4004.00 / 3949.50 Low Oct 12 / Low Oct 6 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3902.50 Low Jul 20
• SUP 4: 3882.00 Low Jul 19 and a key support

EUROSTOXX 50 futures are holding onto recent gains. The contract probed key resistance at 4223.00 yesterday, the Sep 6 high and the key bull trigger. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the underlying uptrend and open 4290.50, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, the 50-day EMA, at 4121.30 today, marks an initial key support. A break would signal a potential short-term top.

E-MINI S&P (Z1): Bullish Conditions Intact

• RES 4: 4687.32 1.382 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - Aug 19 price swing
• RES 1: 4650.60 1.236 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - Aug 19 price swing
• RES 3: 4600.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4591.25 1.00 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - Aug 19 price swing
• PRICE: 4567.25 @ 06:51 BST Oct 29
• SUP 1: 4472.00 High Sep 27 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 4436.22 50-day EMA and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 4317.25/4260.00 Low Oct 12 / Low Oct 1 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 4243.50 Low Jul 20

S&P E-minis remain bullish. Futures rallied Tuesday and registered a fresh all-time high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and the focus is on 4591.25, a Fibonacci projection. Trend signals such as moving average studies remain in a bull mode reinforcing current trend conditions. A key support is at 4317.25, Oct 12 low. The 50-day EMA at 4436.22 represents the initial firm support handle.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Z1) Remains Below Recent Highs

• RES 4: $90.93 - 2.236 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 3: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $88.74 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 1: $86.70/87.00 - High Oct 25 / Round number resistance
• PRICE: $84.43 @ 06:48 BST Oct 29
• SUP 1: $82.32/20 - Low Oct 28 / Low Oct 13
• SUP 2: $80.00 - Round number support
• SUP 3: $79.08/78.75 - Low Oct 7 and key support / Low Oct 4
• SUP 4: $76.51/75.42 - Low Sep 30 and key support / High Sep 15

Brent futures have found resistance this week and remain below Monday's high. Price has traded through support at $83.36, Oct 21 low and probed the 20-day EMA. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback and expose $80.00, with the 50-day EMA at $78.97. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $86.70, Oct 25 high. A break would resume the uptrend.

WTI TECHS: (Z1) Tests The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: $88.96 - 1.382 proj of the Sep 21 - Oct 6 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: $87.45 - 1.236 proj of the Sep 21 - Oct 6 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: $86.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $85.41 - High Oct 25 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $82.91 @ 07:01 BST Oct 29
• SUP 1: $80.58 - 20-day EMA and yesterday's low
• SUP 2: $78.78 - Low Oct 13
• SUP 3: $76.07 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $74.67 - Low Oct 7 and key near-term support

WTI futures faced resistance earlier this week and the contract remains below recent highs. Attention is on the 20-day EMA that intersects at $80.58. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper pullback and open $78.78, Oct 13 low. The 50-day EMA lies at $76.07. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $85.41, Oct 25 high. A break would resume the uptrend.

GOLD TECHS: Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: $1863.3 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun - Aug sell-off
• RES 3: $1844.9 - Low Jun 14
• RES 2: $1834.0 - High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $1813.8 - High Oct 22 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $1795.3 @ 07:18 BST Oct 29
• SUP 1: $1780.8/1760.4 - 50-day EMA / Low Oct 18
• SUP 2: $1746.0 - Low Oct 6 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $1721.7 - Low Sep 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1717.8 - Low Aug 10

Gold is unchanged and is consolidating. The yellow metal maintains a positive short-term tone and remains above the 50-day EMA. Price recently cleared resistance at $1800.6, Oct 14 high and this highlights a S/T bullish theme. Further gains would open $1834.0, Sep 3 high. On the downside, a key short-term support has been defined at $1760.4, the Oct 18 low. A break would alter the picture and instead suggest scope for a deeper pullback.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: $26.002 - High Aug 4
• RES 3: $25.206 - High Jun 8
• RES 2: $24.867 - High Sep 3 and the reversal trigger
• RES 1: $24.828 - High Oct 22
• PRICE: $23.849 @ 07:21 BST Oct 29
• SUP 1: $23.015 - Low Oct 18
• SUP 2: $22.213 - Low Oct 6
• SUP 3: $21.423 - Low Sep 29 and key support
• SUP 4: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb '21 rally

The current bull cycle in Silver remains intact despite the recent pullback. The metal recently cleared both the 20- and 50 day EMAs and remains above these averages. The extension higher paves the way for $24.867, Sep 3 high and a key near-term resistance. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen the case for bulls and open the $26.00 handle. Initial firm support to watch is at $23.015, Oct 18 low. A break would threaten the current bullish theme.