MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Dollar Extending Gains

Tech Focus: Price Signal Summary - USD Extends Gains

• The equity index outlook is unchanged and the broader trend remains up with recent weakness considered a correction. E-mini S&P futures have managed so far to find support at the 50-day EMA.
• Key S/T support has been defined at 3785.00, Friday's low. A break would trigger a deeper sell-off.
• In the FX space, EURUSD is softer following a reversal from last week's 1.2243 high on Feb 25. A shooting star candle Thursday followed by a bearish engulfing candle Friday does not bode well for bulls. Watch key near-term support at 1.2023, Feb 17 low. USDJPY uptrend remains clearly intact with the focus on a climb towards 106.95, Aug 28, 2020 high.
• On the commodity front, Gold remains in a clear downtrend following last week's move through $1760.67, Feb 19 low. Gains are likely a correction. Resistance is at $1775.9, Feb 26 high. The focus is on $1700.0. Oil contracts remain firm although bulls have paused for breath. Brent (K1) targets the $70.00 psychological handle. WTI (J1) targets the round number resistance at $65.00.
• In the FI space, Bunds ended last week on a volatile note. The trend condition is oversold. Gains are considered corrective and firm resistance is seen at 175.12, the 20-day EMA. Gilts (M1) remains bearish. Scope is for a move towards the 127.00 handle. Resistance seen at 129.00, Feb 24 high and a key near-term resistance.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trades Through Support At 1.2023

• RES 4: 1.2255 76.4% retracement of the Jan - Feb sell off
• RES 3: 1.2243 High Feb 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.2184 High Feb 26
• RES 1: 1.2101 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 1.2022 @ 05:55 GMT Mar 2
• SUP 1: 1.2000 Psychological round number
• SUP 2: 1.1952 Low Feb 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1945 23.6% retracement of the Mar - Jan rally
• SUP 4: 1.1908 Low Nov 27

EURUSD maintains a weaker tone and has today traded below support at 1.2023, Feb 17 low. Friday's price pattern in candle terms is a bearish engulfing and this highlighted the possibility of a deeper short-term pullback (it also followed a bearish shooting star candle on Thursday). The break of 1.2023, reinforces the bearish patterns and signals scope for weakness towards 1.1952, Feb 5 low. 1.2101 is initial resistance.

GBPUSD TECHS: Weakens Within Its Bull Channel

• RES 4: 1.4237 High Feb 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.4182 High Feb 25
• RES 2: 1.4129 Bull channel top drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low
• RES 1: 1.4029 High Feb 26
• PRICE: 1.3882 @ 06:03 GMT Mar 2
• SUP 1: 1.3830 Low Feb 17
• SUP 2: 1.3823 61.8% Retracement February Rally
• SUP 3: 1.3776 Low Feb 12 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: 1.3734 50-day EMA

Cable remains vulnerable following the pullback from the Feb 24 multi-year high of 1.4237. The pair has edged lower today again as it weakens within the range highlighted by a bull channel drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low. Price is also trading below the 20-day EMA and the breach signals scope for a move towards 1.3823, a retracement level and the key near-term support at 1.3776, Feb 12 low. Initial resistance is seen at 1.4029, Feb 26 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Attention Is On The 20-day EMA

• RES 4: 0.8815 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 0.8797 High Feb 9
• RES 2: 0.8739 Low Feb 5
• RES 1: 0.8731 High Feb 26 and the short-term bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8658 @ 06:08 GMT Mar 2
• SUP 1: 0.8597 Low Feb 26
• SUP 2: 0.8541 Low Feb 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8521 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 4: 0.8483 2.0% 10-dma Envelope

EURGBP started the week on a softer note following Friday's failure to clear resistance highlighted by the 20-day EMA, today at 0.8713. Technical signals continue to register a bearish trend and further weakness would open 0.8597, Feb 26 low ahead of the bear trigger at 0.8541, Feb 24 low. On the upside, a move above Friday's high of 0.8731, would signal a resumption of the corrective bounce and this would expose the 50-day EMA at 0.8815.

USDJPY TECHS: Approaching The Next Objectives

• RES 4: 107.53 High Jul 20, 2020
• RES 3: 107.15 50.0% retracement of the Mar 2020 - Jan downleg
• RES 2: 107.05 High Aug 13, 2020
• RES 1: 106.95 High Aug 28, 2020
• PRICE: 106.82 @ 06:22 GMT Mar 2
• SUP 1: 105.85 Low Feb 25/26
• SUP 2: 105.48 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 105.21 Trendline support drawn off the Jan 6 low
• SUP 4: 104.92 Low Feb 23 and a key support

The USDJPY outlook remains bullish. Last week's gains above 106.22, Feb 17 high, confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode reinforcing current conditions and price remains above its trendline support drawn off the Jan 1 low. The focus is on 106.95 and 107.05, Aug 28/13, 2020 highs. Support lies at 105.85, Feb 25/26 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 131.22 1.236 proj of the Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 3: 130.73 1.0% 10-dma Envelope
• RES 2: 129.98 High Feb 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 129.52 High Feb 26
• PRICE: 128.48 @ 06:26 GMT Mar 2
• SUP 1: 128.22 Low Mar 1
• SUP 2: 127.75 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 127.31 Low Feb 17
• SUP 4: 127.04 Low Feb 15

EURJPY is unchanged and maintains its underlying bullish tone despite pulling back from last week's Feb 25 high of 129.98. From a short-term perspective, trend conditions have recently entered overbought territory signalling scope for a corrective pullback. If this occurs, a move lower would open 127.75, the 20-day EMA. For bulls, clearance of 129.98 resumes the uptrend and would 131.22, a Fibonacci projection.

AUDUSD TECHS: 50-Day EMA Still Provides Support

• RES 4: 0.8164 High May 15, 2015
• RES 3: 0.8136 High Jan 2018 and Major Resistance
• RES 2: 0.8007 High Feb 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.7883 High Feb 26
• PRICE: 0.7765 @ 06:32 GMT Mar 2
• SUP 1: 0.7696/93 50-day EMA / Low Feb 26
• SUP 2: 0.7651 Low Feb 8
• SUP 3: 0.7583/64 Low Feb 5 / Low Feb 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.7557 Low Dec 28

AUDUSD is trading closer to recent lows and remains vulnerable following last week's sharp sell-off from 0.8007, Feb 25 high. Price action has so far managed to find support at the 50-day EMA that intersects at 0.7696 today. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper pullback and open the 0.7600 handle and potentially below. Initial resistance is at 0.7883, Friday's high with the bull trigger for a resumption of gains defined at 0.8007.

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 1.2915 High Dec 23
• RES 3: 1.2845/81 High Feb 4 / High Jan 28
• RES 2: 1.2763/42 High Feb 12
• RES 1: 1.2749 High Feb 26
• PRICE: 1.2678 @ 06:39 GMT Mar 2
• SUP 1: 1.2587 Low Feb 26
• SUP 2: 1.2468/51 Low Feb 25 / Low Feb 16, 2018 Low
• SUP 3: 1.2386 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.2276 Trendline Drawn From May 2015 Low

USDCAD maintains a firmer short-term tone following the strong recovery from last week's low of 1.2468 on Feb 25. Price has so far stalled at the 50-day EMA that intersects at 1.2739 today. A breach of the average would signal scope for stronger gains towards 1.2881, Jan 28 high. On the downside, a move through 1.2468 would resume bearish pressure towards support drawn off the May 2015 low, a trendline that lies at 1.2276 this week.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H1) Oversold Conditions Unwinds

• RES 4: 175.70 High Feb 15
• RES 3: 175.26 High Feb 18
• RES 2: 175.07 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 174.847 Intraday high
• PRICE: 174.76 @ 04:58 GMT Mar 2
• SUP 1: 173.77 Low Mar 1
• SUP 2: 173.07 Intraday hourly low during the Feb 26 session
• SUP 3: 172.08 Low Feb 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 171.82 61.8% retracement of the Mar - Dec 2020 rally (cont)

Bund futures ended last week on a volatile note and started this week on a firmer note. Despite the strong rebound off Thursday's low of 172.08, trend conditions remain bearish and the recovery is considered a correction with recent oversold trend conditions unwinding. The focus is on the 20-day EMA at 175.07. A break of this average would signal scope for a stronger move higher. Initial support is at 173.77, Monday's low.

BOBL TECHS: (H1) Eyeing The 20-day EMA

• RES 4: 134.940 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 134.850 High Feb 15
• RES 2: 134.790 Low Feb 5 and High Feb 18
• RES 1: 134.692 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 134.660 @ 05:07 GMT Mar 2
• SUP 1: 134.360 Low Mar 1
• SUP 2: 134.100 Intraday hourly low during the Feb 26 session
• SUP 3: 133.800 Low Feb 26
• SUP 4: 133.790 Low Jun 5, 2020 (cont)

Bobl futures maintain a bearish theme however last week's volatile session on Thursday/Friday and yesterday's climb means the contract has entered a corrective phase and is unwinding a recent oversold trend condition. The price is trading just ahead of 134.692, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a stronger recovery and open the 50-day EMA at 134.940. Initial support lies at 134.360, yesterday's low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H1) Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 112.290 High Feb 11
• RES 3: 112.280 High Feb 12
• RES 2: 112.274 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 112.250 Higg Mar 1
• PRICE: 112.230 @ 05:14 GMT Mar 2
• SUP 1: 112.180 Low Mar 1
• SUP 2: 112.140 Intraday hourly low during the Feb 26 session
• SUP 3: 112.070 Low Feb 26
• SUP 4: 112.040 Low Sep 7 and 8 2020 (cont)

Schatz futures maintain a bearish stance although the sharp recovery from 112.070, Friday's low, means this market has entered a corrective cycle. This is allowing a recent oversold trend condition to unwind. Price has breached the 20-day EMA and further gains would signal scope for a climb towards the 50-day EMA at 112.274. On the downside, initial support lies at yesterday's low of 112.180.

GILT TECHS: (M1) Bearish Still In Charge

• RES 4: 130.46 High Feb 16
• RES 3: 129.75 High Feb 19
• RES 2: 129.00 High Feb 24 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 128.63 High Feb 26
• PRICE: 128.37 @ Close Mar 1
• SUP 1: 127.55 Low Feb 26
• SUP 2: 127.37 61.8% retrace of the 2018 - 2020 bullish cycle (cont)
• SUP 3: 127.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 126.85 Low May 3, 2019 (cont)

Gilt futures bears remain in control as price maintains a bearish sequence of lower lows and lowers highs. The contract has been in oversold territory since early Feb and although this still has not had an impact on bearish sentiment, the risk of a potentially sharp corrective bounce remains present. Until then further weakness is likely and would open 127.37, a major Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is at 129.00, Feb 24 high.

BTP TECHS: Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 152.62 76.4% retracement of the Feb 12 - 26 sell-off
• RES 3: 151.98 High Feb 22
• RES 2: 151.30 50- and 20-day EMA zone
• RES 1: 151.07 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 150.92 @ Close Mar 1
• SUP 1: 149.96 High Mar 1
• SUP 2: 148.72 Low Feb 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 148.37 Low Oct 22 and key support
• SUP 4: 148.13 200-dma (cont)

BTP futures remain in a bear mode following last week's strong sell-off however, from a short-term perspective the contract has entered a bullish corrective phase. The recent sell-off saw price clear support at 149.57, Jan 22 low adding further weight to a bearish theme. Key near-term support has been defined at 148.72, Feb 26 low. A break would open the 148.00 handle. On the upside, resistance is seen at 151.30 zone, the 50- and 20-day EMAs.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 Techs: Recovers With The 50-day EMA Intact

• RES 4: 3798.19 0.764 proj of Mar - Jul - Oct 2020 swing
• RES 3: 3742.53 High Feb 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 3728.65 High Feb 25
• RES 1: 3611.52 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 3706.62 @ Close Mar 1
• SUP 1: 3658.12 Low MAr 1
• SUP 2: 3622.24 Low Feb 26
• SUP 3: 3606.70 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 3576.43 61.8% retracement of the Jan 28 - Feb 15 rally

EUROSTOXX 50 remains in a broader uptrend but has also recently entered a short-term corrective phase following the pullback from 3742.53, Feb 15 high. Attention has been on the 50-day EMA at 3610.62 where a break would suggest potential for a deeper pullback. Yesterday's gains are encouraging for bulls. 3742.53 marks the bull trigger where a break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 3798.19, a Fibonacci projection.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K1) Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: $71.75 - High Jan 8, 2020 (cont)
• RES 3: $70.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $67.06 - 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 1: $66.82 - High Feb 25
• PRICE: $63.04 @ 06:39 Mar 2
• SUP 1: $62.10 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $61.39 - Low Feb 19
• SUP 3: $59.92 - Low Feb 12 and trendline drawn off Nov 2, 2020 low
• SUP 4: $57.89 - 50-day EMA

Brent crude futures remain in an uptrend although from a short-term perspective, and with price trading below recent highs, a corrective wave dominates. This is allowing an overbought condition to unwind and attention is on the 20-day EMA at $62.10. A break of the average would allow for a deeper pullback towards trendline support at $59.92, drawn off the Nov 2 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $67.70.

WTI TECHS: (J1) Trading Below Recent Highs

• RES 4: $65.65 - High Jan 8, 2020 (cont)
• RES 3: $65.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $63.81 - High Feb 24
• RES 1: $62.92 - High Mar 1
• PRICE: $59.98 @ 06:48 Mar 2
• SUP 1: $59.19 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $58.60 - Low Feb 19 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $57.31 - Low Feb 12
• SUP 4: $56.78 - Trendline support drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low

WTI futures remains in an uptrend however the recent pullback suggests the contract has entered a short-term corrective phase. This is allowing an overbought condition to unwind and attention is on the 20-day EMA at $59.19. A break of the average would allow for a deeper pullback towards a trendline support at $56.78, drawn off the Nov 2 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger remains $63.8, the Feb 25 high.

GOLD TECHS: Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: $1831.4 - 50-day EMA
• RES 3: $1816.0 - High Feb 23
• RES 2: $1804.5 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $1760.7/75.9 - Low Feb 19 / High Feb 26
• PRICE: $1723.6 @ 07:13 GMT Mar 2
• SUP 1: $1707.2 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $1700.0 - Round number support
• SUP 3: $1689.9 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar - Aug 2020 rally
• SUP 4: $1671.0 - Low Jun 5, 2020

Gold remains in a clear downtrend following last week's sharp sell-off that saw the yellow metal trade through support at $1760.67, Feb 19 low. This confirmed a resumption of the broader downtrend that has been in place since the reversal in August 2020. The focus is on the $1700.0 level next. MA studies are also in a bear mode highlighting the current path of least resistance. Initial firm resistance is seen at $1775.9, Friday's high.

SILVER TECHS: Probes Key Near-Term Support

• RES 4: $29.053 - High Feb 2
• RES 3: $28.498 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb 1 - 4 sell-off
• RES 2: $28.328 - High Feb 23
• RES 1: $27.595 - High Feb 26
• PRICE: $26.193 @ 07:22 GMT Mar 2
• SUP 1: $25.853 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $25.483 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 18 - Feb 1 rally
• SUP 3: $24.700 - Low Jan 27
• SUP 4: $24.057 - Jan 18 low and a key support

Silver remains vulnerable following last week's bearish pressure. The metal traded lower yesterday and is weaker again today. The key near-term support at $25.905, Feb 4 low has been probed. Clearance of this support would set the scene for a deeper pullback and expose $25.483, 76.4% retracement of the Jan 18 - Feb 1 rally. Key resistance has been defined at $28.328, Feb 23 high where a break would likely trigger stronger gains.