MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - DXY Cresting at New 2021 Highs

Price Signal Summary – DXY Cresting at New 2021 Highs

• In the equity space, this week's pullback in S&P E-minis is considered corrective and a bull theme remains intact. Another all-time high print on Nov 5 confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and the focus is on 4717.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. EUROSTOXX 50 futures uptrend remains intact and the recent pullback is considered corrective and appears to be a shallow correction. The recent breach of 4223.00, Sep 6 high and a former bull trigger strengthens the bullish theme.
• In FX, a sharp sell-off in EURUSD continues to extend recent losses below 1.1514, Nov 5 low. The break of this level confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. The move lower maintains the downward price sequence within the bear channel drawn from the Jun 1 high. GBPUSD remains soft. The pair traded sharply lower Wednesday and has breached support at 1.3412, Sep 29 low. This confirms a resumption of the current bear trend and paves the way for an extension lower S/T.
• On the commodity front, Gold rallied sharply higher yesterday and remains firm. The move higher resulted in a clear break of resistance at $1834.0, Sep 3 high. The breach of this hurdle reinforces current bullish conditions and paves the way for further upside. WTI futures gains stalled Wednesday and futures traded lower. Recent gains have exposed key resistance and the bull trigger at $85.41, Oct 25 high. A break of this bull trigger would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and resume the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• In the FI space, Bund futures remain below recent highs. The contract traded higher Tuesday to confirm an extension of the current upleg. The recent breach of resistance at 169.83, Oct 27 high and the break of the 50-day EMA signals scope for a stronger short-term corrective bounce. The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish despite the pullback from recent highs. A recent reversal signal - the break and close above 125.27, Oct 14 high confirmed a double bottom pattern on Oct 27 - continues to play out.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Heading South

• RES 4: 1.1821 High Sep 16
• RES 3: 1.17155 / High Sep 22
• RES 2: 1.1655/92 Bear channel top from Jun 1 high / High Oct 28
• RES 1: 1.1514/1608 Low Nov 5 / High Nov 9
• PRICE: 1.1441 @ 06:18 GMT Nov 12
• SUP 1: 1.1423 Low Jul 21 2020
• SUP 2: 1.1375 1.382 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1315 Bear channel base drawn from the Jun 1 high
• SUP 4: 1.1299 1.382 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing

EURUSD continues to extend recent losses below 1.1514, Nov 5 low. The break of this level confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. The move lower maintains the downward price sequence within the bear channel drawn from the Jun 1 high. Furthermore, moving average studies remain in a bear mode, reinforcing current conditions. The next objective is 1.1375, a Fibonacci projection. 1.1608, Nov 9 high marks the key short-term resistance.

GBPUSD TECHS: Remains Soft

• RES 4: 1.3913 High Sep 14 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3835 High Oct 20
• RES 2: 1.3668 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3433/3607 High Nov 11 / High Nov 9 and key S/T resistance
• PRICE: 1.3369 @ 06:24 GMT Nov 12
• SUP 1: 1.3353 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.3334 1.00 proj of the Sep 14 - 29 - Oct 20 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.3304 Low Dec 22, 2020
• SUP 4: 1.3216 1.236 proj of the Sep 14 - 29 - Oct 20 price swing

GBPUSD remains soft. The pair traded sharply lower Wednesday and has breached support at 1.3412, Sep 29 low. This confirms a resumption of the current bear trend and paves the way for an extension lower S/T. A doji candle pattern Tuesday highlighted the likelihood of a resumption of weakness following a corrective bounce between Nov 5 - 9. The focus is on 1.3354 next. Firm resistance has been defined at 1.3607, Nov 9 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Short-Term Conditions Remain Bullish

• RES 4: 0.8670 High Jul 20
• RES 3: 0.8658 High Sep 29 and key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8624 High Oct 1
• RES 1: 0.8598 76.4% retracement of the Sep 29 - Oct 26 sell-off
• PRICE: 0.8558 @ 06:28 GMT Nov 12
• SUP 1: 0.8518 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8463/41 Low Nov 3 / Low Nov 1
• SUP 3: 0.8403 Low Oct 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8356 Low Feb 26, 2020

EURGBP is unchanged and continues to trade below 0.8595, Nov 5 high. The short-term outlook remains bullish. Recent gains confirmed a breach of the 50-day EMA and the break has improved short-term conditions for bulls, signaling scope for an extension higher. 0.8561, 61.8% of the Sep 29 - Oct 26 sell-off, has been cleared and this opens 0.8598, the 76.4% retracement. Initial firm support is unchanged at 0.8463, Nov 3 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Engulfing Candle Defines Low

• RES 4: 115.51 High Mar 10, 2017
• RES 3: 114.99 1.50 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 price swing
• RES 2: 114.70/73 High Oct 20 / High Nov 6, 2017
• RES 1: 114.44 High Nov 1
• PRICE: 114.25 @ 06:31 GMT Nov 12
• SUP 1: 112.73/49 Low Nov 9 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 112.08 High Sep 30 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 111.51 Low Oct 8
• SUP 4: 110.82/80 Low Oct 4 / High Aug 11

The USDJPY rebound Wednesday signals the potential end of the recent corrective pullback and the Nov 10 candle pattern appears to be a bullish engulfing reversal. If correct, this pattern signals scope for a stronger climb and has exposed key resistance at 114.70, Oct 20 high. A break of 114.70 would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. Key short-term support has been defined at 112.73, Nov 9 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 134.13 High Jun 1 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 133.76 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 132.92/133.48 High Oct 29 / High Oct 20
• RES 1: 131.36/59 20-day EMA / High Nov 5
• PRICE: 130.73 @ 06:37 GMT Nov 12
• SUP 1: 130.44 Low Nov 11
• SUP 2: 130.05 61.8% retracement of the Sep 22 - Oct 20 rally
• SUP 3: 129.28 Low Oct 11
• SUP 4: 128.94 Low Oct 8

EURJPY maintains a weaker short-term tone and traded lower again yesterday. The cross has recently breached its 50- and 20-day EMAs suggesting scope for a deeper pullback. Support at 130.75, Sep 3 high has given way and this opens 130.05, a Fibonacci retracement. Broader trend signals continue to point north though and the recent sell-off is still considered corrective. Initial resistance is at 131.36, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching The Bull Channel Base

• RES 4: 0.7599 High Jul 6
• RES 3: 0.7547/57 200-dma / 50.0% of the Feb - Aug sell-off
• RES 2: 0.7432/7471 High Nov 9 / High Nov 4
• RES 1: 0.7360 Low Nov 5
• PRICE: 0.7295 @ 04:42 GMT Nov 12
• SUP 1: 0.7287 Low Nov 11
• SUP 2: 0.7261 76.4% retracement of the Sep 29 - Oct 28 rally
• SUP 3: 0.7243 Bull channel base drawn from the Aug 20 low
• SUP 4: 0.7226/7170 Low Oct 6 / Low Sep 29

AUDUSD traded lower again Thursday as the pair extends the current short-term bear cycle. The continued weakness has opened 0.7261 next, a Fibonacci retracement. A firm support lies just below, at 0.7243, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Aug 20 low. The recent move lower is still considered corrective. Resistance to watch is 0.7432, Nov 9 high. A break would ease bearish pressure.

USDCAD TECHS: Strong Rally

• RES 4: 1.2775 High Sep 29
• RES 3: 1.2739 High Oct 1
• RES 2: 1.2664 61.8.0% retracement of the Sep 20 - Oct 21 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.2600 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.2585 @ 06:52 GMT Nov 12
• SUP 1: 1.2491/2387 50-day EMA / Low Nov 10
• SUP 2: 1.2288 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2253 Low Jun 23
• SUP 4: 1.2229 76.4% retracement of the Jun - Aug rally

USDCAD strengthened further Thursday, topping both the Oct 8 high as well as the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the Sep 20 - Oct 21 sell-off at 1.2592. The strong recovery has strengthened short-term conditions for bulls and signals scope for an extension towards 1.2664 next, the 61.8% retracement. Further out, there is scope for a climb towards the October high of 1.2739. On the downside, initial firm support has been defined at 1.2387, Nov 10 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z1) Remains Below Recent Highs

• RES 4: 172.12 High Sep 14
• RES 3: 171.95 61.8% retracement of the Aug - Nov sell-off
• RES 2: 171.72 High Sep 23
• RES 1: 171.44 High Nov 9
• PRICE: 170.57 @ 05:20 GMT Nov 12
• SUP 1: 170.06 Low Nov 5
• SUP 2: 168.98 Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 167.69 Low Nov 1 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 167.52 Low Mar 19 2020 (cont)

Bund futures remain below recent highs. The contract traded higher Tuesday to confirm an extension of the current upleg. The recent breach of resistance at 169.83, Oct 27 high and the break of the 50-day EMA signals scope for a stronger short-term corrective bounce. 171.14, 50.0% of the Aug - Nov sell-off has been breached and attention is on 171.95, the 76.4% level. On the downside, initial support to watch is at 170.06.

BOBL TECHS: (Z1) Short-Term Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 135.660 High Sep 9
• RES 3: 135.540 High Sep 21 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 135.380 High Sep 23
• RES 1: 135.280 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 134.780 @ 05:28 GMT Nov 12
• SUP 1: 134.673/320 20-day EMA / Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: 133.900/690 Low Nov 2
• SUP 3: 133.340 Low Mar 19 and key medium-term support (cont)
• SUP 4: 133.308 1.764 proj of the Oct 4 - 13 - 14 price swing

The Bobl futures near-term outlook remains bullish despite Wednesday's pullback from recent high's. Attention remains on resistance at 135.20, Sep 17 low and the Oct 4 plus Nov 5 high. It has been probed this week, a clear break would open 135.540, Sep 21 high. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 134.320, Nov 3 low. A break would sour the recent positive tone and instead signal a possible resumption of the broader downtrend.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z1) Trading Near Recent Highs

• RES 4: 112.415 High Aug 5 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 3: 112.370 High Aug 20
• RES 2: 112.340 Aug 31 high
• RES 1: 112.330 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 112.280 @ 05:37 GMT Nov 12
• SUP 1: 112.203/100 50-day EMA / Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: 112.050/111.945 Low Nov 2 / Low Oct 28
• SUP 3: 111.925 1.236 proj of the Oct 14 - 19 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 111.897 1.382 proj of the Oct 14 - 19 - 26 price swing

A sharp rally in Schatz futures recently means the contract has established a corrective bullish short-term cycle and Wednesday's fresh high reinforces this theme. Resistance at 112.290, Sep 20 high has been breached and the break paves the way for strength towards 112.340 next, Aug 31 high. Recent gains are still considered corrective though and the broader trend direction is down. Initial firm support is 112.100.

GILT TECHS: (Z1) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 128.18 High Sep 10 and 14
• RES 3: 127.95 76.4% retracement of the Aug - Oct downleg
• RES 2: 127.69 High Sep 21
• RES 1: 127.29 High Nov 9
• PRICE: 126.33 @ Close Nov 11
• SUP 1: 125.68 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 124.79/25 Low Nov 4 / Low Nov 1
• SUP 3: 123.43 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 123.16 Low Feb 27, 2019 (cont)

The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish despite the pullback from recent highs. A recent reversal signal - the break and close above 125.27, Oct 14 high confirmed a double bottom pattern on Oct 27 - continues to play out. With a number of important short-term resistance levels cleared, attention is on 127.69 next, Sep 21 high. Initial key support has been defined at 124.25, Nov 1 low. First support is now seen at 125.68, the 20-day EMA.

BTP TECHS: (Z1) Bullish Near-Term Outlook

• RES 4: 155.14 High Aug 31
• RES 3: 154.64 High Sep 22 / 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 153.59 High Sep 24
• RES 1: 153.08 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 151.54 @ Close Nov 11
• SUP 1: 151.35/149.89 Low Nov 11 / Nov 3 low
• SUP 2: 148.14/147.12 Low Nov 2 / Low Nov 1 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 146.65 1.618 proj of the Sep 23 - Oct 6 - 14 price swing
• SUP 4: 146.12 1.764 proj of the Sep 23 - Oct 6 - 14 price swing

BTP futures outlook remains bullish despite the most recent pullback. The recent rally confirmed a short-term bull cycle and this week's breach of 152.54, Oct 14 high reinforces this condition. The break strengthens the short-term case for bulls and opens 153.59 next, Sep 24 high. Initial firm support is seen at 149.89, Nov 3 low. Key support has been defined at 147.12, Nov 1 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (Z1) Trend Condition Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 4448.00 High Jan 2, 2008 (cont)
• RES 3: 4400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4371.00 1.236 proj of Jul 19-Sep 6-Oct 6 2020 swing (cont)
• RES 1: 4367.00 High Nov 5
• PRICE: 4354.00 @ 05:59 GMT Nov 12
• SUP 1: 4223.50 High Sep 6 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 4186.30 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4004.00 / 3949.50 Low Oct 12 / Low Oct 6 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3902.50 Low Jul 20

EUROSTOXX 50 futures uptrend remains intact and the recent pullback is considered corrective and appears to be a shallow correction. The recent breach of 4223.00, Sep 6 high and a former bull trigger strengthens the bullish theme. The break confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and has exposed 4371.00, a Fibonacci projection. The 50-day EMA, at 4186.30, remains a key support. A break would signal a potential top.

E-MINI S&P (Z1): Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 4800.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4783.40 1.764 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - Aug 19 price swing
• RES 2: 4746.68 1.618 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - Aug 19 price swing
• RES 1: 4717.00 1.50 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - Aug 19 price swing
• PRICE: 4646.00 @ 06:26 GMT Nov 12
• SUP 1: 4590.86 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4543.75 Low Oct 27
• SUP 3: 4507.32/ 4472.00 50-day EMA / High Sep 27
• SUP 4: 4317.25/4260.00 Low Oct 12 / Low Oct 1 and the bear trigger

This week's pullback in S&P E-minis is considered corrective and a bull theme remains intact. Another all-time high print on Nov 5 confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and the focus is on 4717.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. Trend signals such as moving average studies remain in a bull mode, reinforcing current conditions and market sentiment. The 50-day EMA at 4507.32 continues to represent the key support handle.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F2) Watching Support

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $87.73 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 2: $87.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $85.77 - High Oct 25 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $82.16 @ 06:53 GMT Nov 12
• SUP 1: $81.66/80.20 - Low Nov 11 / Low Nov 4
• SUP 2: $79.90 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $78.42 - Low Oct 7
• SUP 4: $75.80 - Low Sep 30

Brent futures gains stalled yesterday. Recent activity exposed key resistance and the bull trigger at $85.77, Oct 25 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the underlying uptrend and resume the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This would open $87.73, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support to watch is $80.20 Nov 4 low where a break would instead reverse the trend.

WTI TECHS: (Z1) Key Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: $88.96 - 1.382 proj of the Sep 21 - Oct 6 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: $87.45 - 1.236 proj of the Sep 21 - Oct 6 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: $86.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $84.97/85.41 - High Nov 10 / High Oct 25 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $80.91 @ 07:07 GMT Nov 12
• SUP 1: $80.81/78.25 - Low Nov 10 / Low Nov 4 and key support
• SUP 2: $78.06- 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $74.67 - Low Oct 7 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: $72.82 - Low Sep 30

WTI futures gains stalled Wednesday and futures traded lower. Recent gains have exposed key resistance and the bull trigger at $85.41, Oct 25 high. A break of this bull trigger would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and resume the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This would open $87.45, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $78.25 Nov 4 low. A break would be bearish.

GOLD TECHS: Holding Onto Gains

• RES 4: $1916.6 - High Jun 1 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $1909.7 - High Jun 3
• RES 2: $1903.8 - High Jun 8
• RES 1: $1868.7/1877.7 - High Nov 10 / High Jun 14
• PRICE: $1858.5 @ 07:09 GMT Nov 12
• SUP 1: $1822.4/1805.2 - Low Nov 10 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1791.8/1759.0 - 50-day EMA / Low Nov 3 and a key support
• SUP 3: $1746.0 - Low Oct 6
• SUP 4: $1721.7 - Low Sep 29 and the bear trigger

Gold rallied sharply higher yesterday and remains firm. The move higher resulted in a clear break of resistance at $1834.0, Sep 3 high. The breach of this hurdle reinforces current bullish conditions and paves the way for further upside. Note too that the yellow metal has also breached $1863.3, 76.4% of the Jun - Aug sell-off. The focus is on $1877.7 next, Jun 14 high. Support is seen at f $1822.4, Wednesday's low.

SILVER TECHS: Heading North

• RES 4: $26.778 - High Jul 6
• RES 3: $26.467 - High Jul 14
• RES 2: $26.002 - High Aug 4 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $25.510 - High Aug 5
• PRICE: $25.263 @ 07:26 GMT Nov 12
• SUP 1: $23.821/23.020 - 50-day EMA / Low Nov 3 and a key support
• SUP 2: $22.213 - Low Oct 6
• SUP 3: $21.423 - Low Sep 29 and key support
• SUP 4: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb '21 rally

Silver is holding onto recent gains. Recent price action had defined key short-term directional triggers at; $23.020, Nov 3 low and $24.828, Oct 22 high. The $24.828 resistance has been cleared and the break confirms a resumption of the current bull cycle. This opens $26.002 next, Aug 4 high. For bears, weakness through $23.020 is required to instead expose $22.213, Oct 6 low.