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CROSS ASSET

J&J Vaccine Pause in the US Prompts Risk Unwind

SWITZERLAND

CHF LIBOR FIX - 13-04-2021

JAPAN

JPY LIBOR FIX - 13-04-2021

UK

GBP LIBOR FIX - 13-04-2021

US

USD LIBOR FIX - 13-04-2021

COMMODITIES

Oil Parameters Unchanged For Now

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Price Signal Summary - E-minis Comfortable Above 4,000

  • In the equity space, S&P E-minis have cleared the psychological 4,000 level and appear comfortable above this former key hurdle. The focus is on 4080.99, 1.236 projection of the Feb 1 - Feb 16 - Mar 4 price swing. EUROSTOXX 50 is trading higher too and approaching 4000. A break would open 4047.72, 2.236 projection of the Dec 21 - Jan 8 - Jan 28 price swing
  • In the FX space, EURUSD gains are considered corrective. The next resistance is 1.1828, a former bear channel base drawn off the Jan 6 high. A break of this level would suggest scope for a stronger bounce. The GBPUSD outlook remains bearish. Recent gains have stalled at the former bull channel base drawn off the Nov 2 low. Resistance has been defined at 1.3919, the weekly high. USDJPY remains bullish and pullbacks are considered corrective. The focus is on 111.30 next, Mar 26, 2020 high.
  • On the commodity front:
    • Gold is holding onto recent gains. Key resistance is at $1755.5, Mar 18 high, where a break is required to suggest scope for a stronger bounce.
    • Brent (M1) key directional triggers are:
      • Resistance at $65.39, Mar 29 high and key support at $60.33, Mar 23 low and the bear trigger
    • WTI (K1) directional triggers are:
      • Resistance at $62.27, Mar 30 high and support at $57.25, Mar 23 low and the bear trigger

In the FI space, Bunds (M1) remain vulnerable. Key support to watch is at 170.52, Mar 18 low. The key support and bear trigger in Gilts (M1) is at 126.79, Mar 18 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce

  • RES 4: 1.1990 High Mar 11 and a key resistance
  • RES 3: 1.1944 50-day EMA
  • RES 2: 1.1899 1.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 1: 1.1878 High Apr 6 and intraday high
  • PRICE: 1.1871 @ 05:52 GMT Apr 7
  • SUP 1: 1.1795 Low Apr 6
  • SUP 2: 1.1738 Low Apr 5
  • SUP 3: 1.1704/1695 Low Mar 31 / 38.2% of the Mar 2020 - Jan rally
  • SUP 4: 1.1647 1.50 proj of the Jan 6 - Feb 5 - Feb 25 price swing

EURUSD traded higher Monday and markets built on those gains further Tuesday. This has resulted in price moving into a bear channel range drawn off this year's Jan 6 high and above the 20-day EMA. Gains are considered corrective though with the next firm resistance area at 1.1944, the 50-day EMA. Initial resistance is at 1.1899, the 1.0% 10-dma envelope. The trigger for a resumption of the downtrend is 1.1704, Mar 31 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Finds Resistance At Former Bull Channel Base

  • RES 4: 1.4017 High Mar 4 and key resistance
  • RES 3: 1.3959 High Mar 19
  • RES 2: 1.3953 50% Retracement Feb - Mar Downleg
  • RES 1: 1.3919/21 High Apr 6 / Former channel bull channel base
  • PRICE: 1.3832 @ 06:01 GMT Apr 7
  • SUP 1: 1.3805/02 50-day EMA / Low Apr 6
  • SUP 2: 1.3706 Low Mar 30
  • SUP 3: 1.3670/63 Low Mar 25 / Low Feb 5
  • SUP 4: 1.3641 38.2% retracement of the Sep 23 - Feb 24 bull cycle

GBPUSD started the week on a firmer note as the pair extended its recovery from the Mar 25 low. Price did breach a short-term trendline resistance drawn off the Feb 25 low but has stalled at resistance defined by a bull channel base from the Nov 2, 2020 low. The bull channel base was cleared Mar 23 and intersects at 1.3921 today. A clear break higher would open 1.4017, Mar 4 high. Initial support lies at 1.3802.

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Engulfing Candle

  • RES 4: 0.8705 High Mar 1
  • RES 3: 0.8668 High Mar 3
  • RES 2: 0.8646/54 High Mar 24 and S/T reversal trigger / 50-day EMA
  • RES 1: 0.8593 Intraday high
  • PRICE: 0.8584 @ 06:11 GMT Apr 7
  • SUP 1: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 2: 0.8453 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
  • SUP 3: 0.8430 Low Feb 27, 2020
  • SUP 4: 0.8356 Low Feb 26

EURGBP bounced Tuesday and ended the session on a firm note, closing at the high. In pattern terms, yesterday is a bullish engulfing candle and if correct, a signal the cross has entered a corrective cycle. Key support has been defined at 0.8472, Apr 5 low where a break is required to resume the underlying downtrend. Short-term gains would signal scope for a test of key resistance at 0.8646, Mar 24 high and the 50-day EMA at 0.8654.

USDJPY TECHS: Correction Extends

  • RES 4: 112.23 High Feb 20, 2020
  • RES 3: 111.71 High Mar 24
  • RES 2: 111.30 High Mar 26, 2020
  • RES 1: 110.97 High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: 109.78 @ 06:22 GMT Apr 7
  • SUP 1: 109.31 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 109.13 Low Mar 26
  • SUP 3: 108.41 Low Mar 23 and key support
  • SUP 4: 107.73 50-day EMA

USDJPY has pulled back from recent highs as the pair corrects lower and begins to unwind its overbought condition. Attention turns to the next support area of 109.31, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would expose 109.00 and potentially below. From a trend perspective, the outlook remains bullish. The trigger for a resumption of the trend is 110.97, Mar 31 high. A break would open 111.30 next, Mar 26, 2020 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Eyeing Key Resistance

  • RES 4: 132.36 1.382 proj of the Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 price swing
  • RES 3: 131.22 1.236 proj of the Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 price swing
  • RES 2: 130.67 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
  • RES 1: 130.56 High Apr 6
  • PRICE: 130.34 @ 06:27 GMT Apr 7
  • SUP 1: 129.54/13 20-day EMA / Low Mar 30
  • SUP 2: 128.64/62 50-day EMA / Trendline drawn off Oct 30, 2020 low
  • SUP 3: 127.50 Low Feb 22
  • SUP 4: 127.31 Low Feb 17

EURJPY is holding onto recent gains. The recent recovery from128.29, Mar 24 low leaves the 50-day EMA at 128.64, and trendline support at 128.62 intact. The trendline is drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low. A break of this support zone is required to suggest scope for a deeper sell-off and signal a reversal of the uptrend. Attention though is on 130.67, Mar 18 high and the bull trigger. A break would resume bullish activity.

AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle

  • RES 4: 0.7750 High Mar 23
  • RES 3: 0.7702 Trendline resistance drawn off the Feb 25 high
  • RES 2: 0.7684 50-day EMA
  • RES 1: 0.7677 Intraday high
  • PRICE: 0.7654 @ 06:33 GMT Apr 7
  • SUP 1: 0.7596 Low Apr 2
  • SUP 2: 0.7532/17 Low Apr 1 and the bear trigger / Low Dec 22
  • SUP 3: 0.7462 Low Dec 21
  • SUP 4: 0.7418 23.6% retracement of the Mar 2020 - Feb rally

AUDUSD remains above recent lows having recovered from 0.7532, Apr 1 low. Nonetheless, the outlook remains fragile. The pair has recently breached support at 0.7563, Mar 25 low and also cleared the Feb 2 low of 0.7564. This reinforces the current bearish theme following the confirmation of a head and shoulders reversal pattern on Mar 23. This has opened 0.7517 next, Dec 22 low. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 0.7684, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Focus

  • RES 4: 1.2763 High Feb 12
  • RES 3: 1.2749 High Feb 26 and key resistance
  • RES 2: 1.2700 High Mar 8
  • RES 1: 1.2625/47 50-day EMA / High Mar 30 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: 1.2588 @ 06:43 GMT Apr 7
  • SUP 1: 1.2502 Low Apr 5
  • SUP 2: 1.2462 Low Mar 19
  • SUP 3: 1.2365 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 4: 1.2336 1.00 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 25 - Feb 26 price swing

USDCAD traded lower Monday extending the pullback from recent highs. The pair has however since recovered. Short-term trend conditions remain bullish and attention is on resistance at 1.2647, Mar 30 high and the bull trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the recovery that started Mar 18 and open 1.2749, Feb 26 high. On the downside, a resumption of weakness would instead expose the key support and bear trigger at 1.2365.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M1) Focus Remains On Support

  • RES 4: 172.78 0.764 proj of the Feb 25 - Mar 11 - Mar 18 price swing
  • RES 3: 172.66 High Mar 25
  • RES 2: 172.34 High Mar 29
  • RES 1: 171.89 High Apr 6
  • PRICE: 171.68 @ 05:02 GMT Apr 7
  • SUP 1: 170.71 Low Mar 30
  • SUP 2: 170.52 Low Mar 18 and key support
  • SUP 3: 170.00 Round number support
  • SUP 4: 169.24 Low Feb 24 and major support

Bund futures are holding onto recent gains. Attention though remains on the key short-term support at 170.52, Mar 18 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish argument and signal scope for a deeper sell-off. The recent move lower since Mar 25 suggests the entire recovery between Feb 25 - Mar 25 has been a correction and that this correction is possibly over. Key resistance is unchanged at 172.66, Mar 25 high.

BOBL TECHS: (M1) Gains Considered Corrective

  • RES 4: 135.544 0.764 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 3 - Mar 9 price swing
  • RES 3: 135.520 High Mar 25
  • RES 2: 135.440 High Mar 29
  • RES 1: 135.280 High Apr 1
  • PRICE: 135.200 @ 04:56 GMT Apr 7
  • SUP 1: 134.940 Low Mar 30
  • SUP 2: 134.870 Low Mar 19 and key short-term support
  • SUP 3: 134.780 Low Mar 8 and 9
  • SUP 4: 134.670 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally

Bobl futures maintain a bearish focus despite the strong bounce Apr 1. Attention is on support at 134.870, Mar 18 low where a break would strengthen a bearish argument and suggest scope for a deeper pullback. This would open 134.780, the Mar 8 and 9 lows and potentially below. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 135.520, Mar 25 high. Clearance of this level is required to reinstate the recent bull cycle.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M1) Resistance Remains Intact

  • RES 4: 112.181 50-day EMA (cont)
  • RES 3: 112.174 0.618 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 2 - Mar 10 price swing
  • RES 2: 112.165 High Mar 25 and the bull trigger
  • RES 1: 112.145 High Apr 1
  • PRICE: 112.120 @ 05:17 GMT Apr 7
  • SUP 1: 112.080 Low Mar 31
  • SUP 2: 112.070 Low Mar 18 and a key near-term support
  • SUP 3: 112.060 Low Mar 10
  • SUP 4: 112.026 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally

Schatz futures remain below recent highs and the contract appears likely to extend a retracement lower despite the Apr 1 rally. A move lower would expose support at 112.070, Mar 18 low where a break would strengthen a bearish argument and open 112.060, Mar 10 low and potentially below. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 112.165, Mar 25 high. A breach of this level is needed to reinstate the recent bullish theme.

GILT TECHS: (M1) Bearish Risk Still Present

  • RES 4: 129.75 High Feb 19
  • RES 3: 129.27 High Mar 2 and the reversal trigger
  • RES 2: 128.93 High Mar 25
  • RES 1: 128.23 20-day EMA
  • PRICE: 128.09 @ Close Apr 6
  • SUP 1: 127.32 Low Apr 1
  • SUP 2: 126.79 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 126.55 Low Apr 17, 2019 (cont)
  • SUP 4: 126.00 Round number support

Despite recent gains, Gilt futures maintain a bearish tone. This follows the recent pullback from the Mar 25 high and attention is on key support at 126.79, Mar 18 low. From a trend perspective, the primary direction is down - the trigger for a resumption of the trend is 126.79. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at 128.93, Mar 25 high. Clearance of this level would expose the key hurdle for bulls at 129.27, Mar 2 high.

BTP TECHS: (M1) Bearish Risk With Resistance Intact

  • RES 4: 151.05 1.50 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 3 - Mar 5 price swing
  • RES 3: 150.69 76.4% retracement of the Feb 12 - 26 sell-off
  • RES 2: 150.39 High Mar 11 and key short-term resistance
  • RES 1: 149.88 High Apr 6
  • PRICE: 148.96 @ Close Apr 6
  • SUP 1: 148.57 Low Mar 30
  • SUP 2: 148.36 Low Mar 18 and key short-term support
  • SUP 3: 148.20 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 11 rally
  • SUP 4: 147.68 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 11 rally

Recent price action in BTP futures have defined resistance at 150.39, Mar 11 high and support at 148.36, Mar 18 low as key short-term directional triggers. While 150.39 and a pivotal level at 150.69, 76.4% of the Feb 12 - 26 sell-off remain intact, the short-term risk appears skewed to the downside. A breach of 148.36, Mar 18 low would reinforce a bearish argument and signal scope for a deeper pullback. Clearance of 150.39 would instead be bullish.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 Techs: Approaching 4000.00

  • RES 4: 4110.24 High Jan 18, 2008
  • RES 3: 4047.72 2.236 proj of Dec 21 - Jan 8 rally from Jan 28 low
  • RES 2: 4000.00 Psychological round number
  • RES 1: 3988.10 High Apr 6
  • PRICE: 3970.42 @ Close Apr 6
  • SUP 1: 3885.11 Low Mar 30
  • SUP 2: 3841.46 Low Mar 26
  • SUP 3: 3784.09 Low Mar 25 and key support
  • SUP 4: 3742.53 High Feb 15 and recent breakout level

EUROSTOXX 50 registered a fresh trend high again yesterday and bullish trend conditions remain firmly in place. Last week's gains confirmed a resumption of the uptrend, extending the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Attention is on the psychological 4000.00 next. On the downside, key trend support has been defined at 3784.09, Mar 25 low. A break is required to signal a potential short-term top. Bullish!

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M1) Recent Highs Intact

  • RES 4: $70.67 - High Mar 8 and the key bull trigger
  • RES 3: $69.50 - High Mar 15
  • RES 2: $67.76- High Mar 18
  • RES 1: $65.39 - High Mar 29
  • PRICE: $62.83 @ 06:54 Apr 7
  • SUP 1: $61.25 - Low Apr 5
  • SUP 2: $60.33 - Low Mar 23 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: $58.27 - 38.2% retracement of the Nov 2 - Mar 8 rally
  • SUP 4: $56.80 - High Jan 13

Brent crude futures are unchanged and remain below recent highs. Last week's break higher through $64.97, Mar 22 high failed to deliver any bullish follow through despite signalling scope for a short-term recovery. Price would need to trade above $65.39, Mar 30 high to again suggest scope for an extension higher. This would open $67.76, the Mar 18 high. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at $60.33, low Mar 23.

WTI TECHS: (K1) Consolidating

  • RES 4: $67.79 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
  • RES 3: $66.44 - High Mar 15
  • RES 2: $64.88 - High Mar 18 and a key near-term resistance
  • RES 1: $62.27 - High Mar 30
  • PRICE: $59.43 @ 06:58 Apr 7
  • SUP 1: $57.63 - Low Apr 5
  • SUP 2: $57.25 - Low Mar 23 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: $55.65 - 38.2% retracement of the Nov 2 - Mar 8 rally
  • SUP 4: $53.68 - High Jan 13

WTI futures are unchanged. Last week's test above resistance at $62.04, Mar 22 high failed to deliver any bullish follow through despite signalling scope for a recovery. Price needs to clear $62.27, Mar 30 high to once again suggest scope for gains. This would open $64.88, the Mar 18 high. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at $57.25, Mar 23 low. A break would resume bearish pressure.

GOLD TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance

  • RES 4: $1805.7 - High Feb 25
  • RES 3: $1760.9 - 50-day EMA
  • RES 2: $1755.5 - High Mar 18 and key resistance
  • RES 1: $1745.5 - High Apr 7
  • PRICE: $1737.3 @ 07:13 GMT Apr 7
  • SUP 1: $1705.9 - Low Apr 1
  • SUP 2: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: $1671.0 - Low Jun 5, 2020
  • SUP 4: $1659.6 - Low Apr 21, 2020

Gold found support last week, bouncing off $1678.0, Mar 3 low. Despite these gains, the yellow metal maintains a bearish tone and a break of resistance at $1755.5, Mar 18 high is required to alter the short-term picture. This would also highlight a potential break of the 50-day EMA at $1760.9 and open $1805.7, Feb 25 high. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger remains $1676.9, Mar 8 low.

SILVER TECHS: Holds Onto Recent Gains

  • RES 4: $27.081 - High Mar 1
  • RES 3: $26.636 - High Mar 18 and firm near-term resistance
  • RES 2: $25.752 - 50-day EMA
  • RES 1: $25.314 - 20-day EMA
  • PRICE: $25.040 @ 07:19 GMT Apr 7
  • SUP 1: $23.781 - Low Mar 31
  • SUP 2: $23.524 - Low Dec 7 and key near-term support
  • SUP 3: $22.591 - Low Dec 12
  • SUP 4: $21.899 - Low Nov 30 and a key support

Silver is holding onto recent gains following the recovery from $23.781, Mar 31 high. The outlook remains bearish though and upticks are considered corrective. Recent weakness has opened $23.524, Dec 7 low and a key near-term support. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at $25.314, the 20-day EMA. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $26.636, Mar 18 high. A break of this level is required to alter the picture.