MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - E-mini S&P Clears Recent Highs

Price Signal Summary – E-mini S&P Clears Recent Highs

• S&P E-minis traded higher Friday and the contract has cleared its recent highs. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, marking an extension of the bull cycle that started in October 2022. Eurostoxx 50 futures remain in consolidation mode and price is trading above 4216.00, the May 31 low and a key support. For now, the recent gains appear to be a correction. The recent breach of support at 4252.00, the May 25 low, highlights a potential bearish threat.
• EURUSD traded higher last Thursday and pierced initial resistance at 1.0779, the Jun 2 high. Price has since pulled back. A clear breach of 1.0779 would improve short-term conditions for bulls and allow for a stronger correction. EURGBP traded lower Friday to a new YTD low. The break of support confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies also highlight a bearish condition. The AUDUSD bull cycle that started on May 31 remains in play and the pair is trading higher once again. Price is through 0.6733, 76.4% of the downleg in May. This reinforces current bullish conditions and signals scope for an extension towards 0.6818.
• The bear cycle in Gold remains intact. The yellow metal traded lower last Wednesday and once again pierced trendline support drawn from the Nov 3 2022 low. The trendline intersects at $1958.0. WTI futures continue to trade below key short-term resistance at $75.06, the Jun 5 high. The pullback from this level reinforces a bearish theme. A continuation lower would signal scope for weakness towards $67.03, the May 31 low and key support at $63.90, the May 4 low.
• Bund futures maintain a softer tone following last week’s move lower. This has reinforced a bearish theme following the reversal from 135.85, the Jun 1 high. Support at 133.45 has been cleared, the May 30 low, and the focus is on 133.00, a Fibonacci retracement. Gilt futures remain below its recent highs. The recovery from 94.21, the May 26 low, allowed an oversold condition to unwind. The move higher is considered corrective and the trend direction remains down.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.1007 High May 10
• RES 3: 1.0905 High May 16
• RES 2: 1.0814 50-day EMA values
• RES 1: 1.0787 High Jun 08
• PRICE: 1.0741 @ 05:56 BST Jun 12
• SUP 1: 1.0667/35 Low Jun 6 / Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.0608 Low Mar 17
• SUP 3: 1.0551 Low Mar 16
• SUP 4: 1.0516 Low Mar 15 and a key support

EURUSD traded higher last Thursday and pierced initial resistance at 1.0779, the Jun 2 high. Price has since pulled back. A clear breach of 1.0779 would improve short-term conditions for bulls and allow for a stronger correction. This would expose resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.0814, and a clear break of this average would also strengthen a bullish theme. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 1.0635, the May 31 and bear trigger.

GBPUSD TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 1.2772 High Apr 26 2022
• RES 3: 1.2680 High May 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.2641 High May 11
• RES 1: 1.2592 76.4% retracement of the May 10 - 25 bear cycle
• PRICE: 1.2572 @ 06:28 BST Jun 12
• SUP 1: 1.2464/24 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 1.2369/2308 Low Jun 5 / Low May 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2275 Low Apr 3
• SUP 4: 1.2242 50.0% retracement of the Mar 8 - May 10 bull run

GBPUSD is holding on to its latest gains. Resistance at 1.2545, the Jun 2 high, was cleared last week. This signals scope for a continuation higher near-term and attention is on 1.2592, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would expose key resistance at 1.2680, the May 10 high. Initial firm support has been defined at 1.2369, the Jun 5 low. A break would reinstate a bearish theme.

EURGBP TECHS: Fresh YTD Lows

• RES 4: 0.8814 High May 5
• RES 3: 0.8768 High May 5
• RES 2: 0.8705 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8591/42 High Jun 9 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8446 @ 06:12 BST Jun 12
• SUP 1: 0.8541 Low Jun 9 and intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.8522 Low Aug 30 2022
• SUP 3: 0.8519/04 1.0% 10-dma env / 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 4: 0.8454 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bull cycle

EURGBP traded lower Friday to a new YTD low. The break of support confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies also highlight a bearish condition. The focus is on 0.8547 - touched Friday - the Dec 1 2022 low and a key support. A clear break of this level would reinforce a bearish theme. Initial resistance to watch is 0.8642, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Eyeing Resistance At The Top Of The Bull Channel

• RES 4: 142.51 61.8% of the Oct 16 2022 - Jan 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 142.25 High Nov 21 2022
• RES 2: 141.61 High Nov 23 2022
• RES 1: 140.45/141.25 High Jun 5 / Bull channel top from Jan 16 low
• PRICE: 139.46 @ 06:40 BST Jun 12
• SUP 1: 138.71/45 20-day EMA / Low Jun 1
• SUP 2: 137.43 Low May 19
• SUP 3: 136.89 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 136.31 Low May 17

The trend condition in USDJPY is unchanged and remains bullish. Attention is on key resistance at the top of a bull channel drawn from the Jan 16 low. The line intersects at 141.25. A clear break of this hurdle would reinforce a bullish theme and open 141.61, the Nov 23 2022 high. For bears, a strong reversal lower would instead highlight a potential top plus signal scope for a deeper pullback. Key support to watch is 138.71, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Theme Intact

• RES 4: 152.81 1.50 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 3: 152.00 1.382 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 2: 151.61 High May 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 150.44/151.07 High Jun 9 / High May 29
• PRICE: 149.92 @ 06:52 BST Jun 12
• SUP 1: 148.59 Low May 31
• SUP 2: 148.01/146.69 50-day EMA / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 146.13 Low May 11 and a key support
• SUP 4: 145.67 High Mar 31

The broader theme in EURJPY remains bullish after last week’s gains. The cross has traded above initial resistance at 150.20, the Jun 5 high. A continuation higher would open 151.07, the May 29 high. Key resistance is at 151.61, the May 2 high and also represents an important bull trigger. Key short-term support is at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 148.01. A break would highlight a possible reversal.

AUDUSD TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 0.6865 High Feb 22
• RES 3: 0.6818 High May 10 and key resistance
• RES 2: 0.6812 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.6758 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.6747 @ 08:10 BST Jun 12
• SUP 1: 0.6751 Lowe Jun 9
• SUP 2: 0.6634 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6567/6458 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6403 76.4% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle

The AUDUSD bull cycle that started on May 31 remains in play and the pair is trading higher once again. Price is through 0.6733, 76.4% of the downleg in May. This reinforces current bullish conditions and signals scope for an extension towards 0.6818, the May 10 high and a key resistance. On the downside, a strong reversal is required to refocus attention on 0.6458, the May 31 low. Initial firm support is seen at 0.6634, the 20-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Approaching Key Support

• RES 4: 1.3668 High Apr 28 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3585 High Jun 1
• RES 2: 1.3499 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3466 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3336 @ 08:16 BST Jun 12
• SUP 1: 1.3313 Low Jun 09
• SUP 2: 1.3302 Low Apr 14 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 1.3275 Low Feb 14
• SUP 4: 1.3187 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD maintains a softer tone and traded to new multi-month lows Friday. The pair is trading closer to its recent lows. The resumption of weakness exposes 1.3302, the Apr 14 lows and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 1.3466, the 20-day EMA. A break of this level is required to ease bearish pressure.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Maintains A Softer Tone

• RES 4: 136.97 High Apr 6
• RES 3: 136.50 High May 11
• RES 2: 135.85 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 134.67/95 / High Jun 7 / 6
• PRICE: 134.17 @ 05:16 BST Jun 12
• SUP 1: 133.51 Low Jun 9
• SUP 2: 133.00/132.97 76.4% of the May 26 - Jun 1 rally / Low Jun 8
• SUP 3: 132.33 Low May 29
• SUP 4: 132.12 Low May 26 and key support

Bund futures maintain a softer tone following last week’s move lower. This has reinforced a bearish theme following the reversal from 135.85, the Jun 1 high. Support at 133.45 has been cleared, the May 30 low, and the focus is on 133.00, a Fibonacci retracement. It has been tested, a clear break would expose key support at 132.12, the May 26 low. Short-term gains are considered corrective, initial firm resistance is at 134.67, the Jun 7 high.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Bearish Outlook Intact

• RES 4: 118.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 117.700 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 117.200 High Jun 6
• RES 1: 116.810/117.010 High Jun 9 / 7
• PRICE: 116.640 @ 04:50 BST Jun 12
• SUP 1: 116.250 Low Jun 8
• SUP 2: 116.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 115.970 Low May 29
• SUP 4: 115.870 Low May 26 and key support

Bobl futures maintain a softer tone and last Wednesday’s sharp move lower reinforced bearish conditions. The latest recovery is considered corrective. The contract has breached support at 116.400, the May 30 low and pierced 116.302, 76.4% of the May 26 - Jun 1 rally. A clear break of 116.302 would expose key support at 115.870, the May 26 low. A key near-term resistance is seen at 117.200, the Jun 6 high, where a break would ease bearish pressure.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 105.975 High May 17
• RES 3: 105.875 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 105.815 High Jun 4
• RES 1: 105.655 High Jun 6 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 105.405 @ 05:43 BST Jun 12
• SUP 1: 105.335 Low Jun 6
• SUP 2: 105.330 Low May 26 and key support
• SUP 3: 105.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 104.960 Low Low Mar 13 (cont)

Schatz futures remain below 105.875, the Jun 1 high, and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. A bearish theme remains intact and the focus is on key short-term support at 105.330, the May 26 low and bear trigger. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started in March and open the 105.00 handle. Key short-term resistance is seen at 105.655, the Jun 6 high.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Remains Below Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 98.80 High May 22
• RES 3: 98.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 97.64 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 97.06 High Jun 6
• PRICE: 96.39 @ Close Jun 9
• SUP 1: 95.55 Low Jun 8
• SUP 2: 95.52 61.8% of the May 26 - Jun 1 rally
• SUP 3: 94.91/21 Low May 30
• SUP 4: 94.21 Low May 26 and the bear trigger

Gilt futures remain below its recent highs. The recovery from 94.21, the May 26 low, allowed an oversold condition to unwind. The move higher is considered corrective and the trend direction remains down. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a bear cycle. A continuation lower would open the 94.00 handle next. The bear trigger is 94.21, the May 26 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 97.64, the Jun 1 high.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Key Resistance Remains Intact - For Now

• RES 4: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 3: 117.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 116.36 High Jun 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 116.06 High Jun 6
• PRICE: 115.91 @ Close Jun 9
• SUP 1: 114.97/113.83 Low Jun 9 / 8
• SUP 2: 113.53 61.8% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 2 rally
• SUP 3: 112.86 76.4% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 2 rally
• SUP 4: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support

BTP futures traded lower last week but has rebounded from 113.83, the Jun 8 low. The contract has recently also pulled back from 116.36, the Jun 2 high. This highlights a developing short-term bearish threat and if correct, suggests potential for a deeper pullback near-term. The next firm support lies at 113.53, the 61.8% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 2 rally. Key resistance to watch is 116.36, a break would reinstate a bullish theme.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 4457.50 0.5 proj of the Mar 20 - Apr 21 - May 4 price swing
• RES 3: 4448.00 High Jan 2008 (cont)
• RES 2: 4409.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• RES 1: 4362.00 High May 29
• PRICE: 4307.00 @ 06.41 BST Jun 12
• SUP 1: 4216.00 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4200.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 4175.00 Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: 4164.00 High Mar 22

Eurostoxx 50 futures remain in consolidation mode and price is trading above 4216.00, the May 31 low and a key support. For now, the recent gains appear to be a correction. The recent breach of support at 4252.00, the May 25 low, highlights a potential bearish threat. The contract has also pierced support at 4233.00, the May 4 low and a key short-term level. Resistance to watch is 4362.00, May 29 high. Clearance of this level would be bullish.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Heading North

• RES 4: 4452.42 1.764 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 4427.79 1.618 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 4400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4369.50 High Jun 9
• PRICE: 4358.75 @ 07:49 BST Jun 12
• SUP 1: 4267.69 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4210.03 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4154.75 Low May 24
• SUP 4: 4098.25 Low May 4 and a key support

S&P E-minis traded higher Friday and the contract has cleared its recent highs. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, marking an extension of the bull cycle that started in October 2022. The focus is on the 4400.00 handle next. The 50-day EMA, at 4210.03 marks a key support. A break would signal a reversal. Initial firm support is at 4267.69, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q3) Key Short-Term Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: $84.56 - High Apr 18
• RES 3: $82.47 - High Apr 25
• RES 2: $80.08 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $78.73 - High Jun 5 and a short-term bull trigger
• PRICE: $73.95 @ 06:53 BST Jun 12
• SUP 1: $73.58 - Low Jun 8
• SUP 2: $71.50/71.20 - Low May 31 / 4
• SUP 3: $70.06 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 4: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)

Brent futures continue to trade below last week’s high of $78.73, a key short-term resistance. The outlook is bearish and a continuation lower would pave the way for a move towards key support at $71.20, the May 4 low, ahead of $70.06, the Mar 20 low. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode position and this highlights a downtrend. On the upside, clearance of $78.73 would alter the picture.

WTI TECHS: (N3) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $80.93 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $79.00 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $76.74 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $75.06 - High Jun 5 and a key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $69.33 @ 07:08 BST Jun 12
• SUP 1: $67.03 - Low May 31
• SUP 2: $63.90 - Low May 4 and key support
• SUP 3: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number

WTI futures continue to trade below key short-term resistance at $75.06, the Jun 5 high. The pullback from this level reinforces a bearish theme. A continuation lower would signal scope for weakness towards $67.03, the May 31 low and key support at $63.90, the May 4 low. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position highlighting a downtrend. On the upside, a break of resistance at $75.06 is required to highlight a potential bullish theme.

GOLD TECHS: Trendline Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $2063.0 - High May 4
• RES 2: $2022.6 - High May 12
• RES 1: $1985.3 - High May 24 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $1958.7 @ 07:08 BST Jun 12
• SUP 1: $1932.2/18.3 - Low May 31 / Low Mar 17
• SUP 2: $1903.5 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle
• SUP 3: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle

The bear cycle in Gold remains intact. The yellow metal traded lower last Wednesday and once again pierced trendline support drawn from the Nov 3 2022 low. The trendline intersects at $1958.0. A clear breach of this line would reinforce bearish conditions and open $1903.5, 61.8% of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle. Initial firm resistance is $1985.3, the May 24 high. Clearance of this level would signal a short-term reversal instead.

SILVER TECHS: Testing Resistance

• RES 4: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.477/26.135 - High May 11 / 5 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $24.492/530 - Low Apr 25 and double midpoint / High Jun 12
• PRICE: $24.102 @ 08:20 BST Jun 12
• SUP 1: $23.250/22.682 - Low June 5 / Low May 26 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $22.284 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally
• SUP 3: $22.157 - Low Mar 21
• SUP 4: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally

Silver traded higher Friday. The metal has tested resistance at $24.492, the Apr 25 low and midpoint of a double top confirmed on May 11. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a stronger recovery and open $25.477, the May 11 high. Key support has been defined at $22.682, the May 26 low and bear trigger. A break would reinstate a bearish theme. Initial support to watch lies at $23.250, the Jun 5 low.