MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - E-mini S&P Defines S/T Resistance

Price Signal Summary – E-mini S&P Defines S/T Resistance

• S&P E-Minis traded lower again Thursday. A key short-term resistance has been defined at 4035.25, the Jan 17 high and price has traded through support at 3930.77, the 50-day EMA. A clear break would highlight a potential bearish reversal and expose 3891.50, the Jan 10 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded lower Thursday. The broader trend outlook remains bullish, however, the cycle is overbought and this warns of the potential for a short-term pullback.
• EURUSD continues to consolidate closer to its recent highs. The trend outlook remains bullish. The recent break of 1.0787, May 30 2022 high, reinforces bullish conditions and maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. USDJPY remains below this week’s high and the 20-day EMA. The average intersects at 131.16 today. Recent activity appears to be a bear flag formation - if correct it reinforces the downtrend and signals scope for a continuation of the trend. AUDUSD remains below Wednesday’s high of 0.7063 and the pair traded lower Thursday. Short-term weakness is considered corrective - for now. Attention is on support at 0.6867, the 20-day EMA.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the yellow metal traded to a fresh cycle high on Thursday. This confirms an extension on the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. WTI futures traded higher Wednesday but price pulled back from the $82.38 session high. This highlights a potential bearish threat. Attention is on support at $77.75, the 20-day EMA.
• Bund futures remain in an uptrend and the contract has traded to fresh highs this week to confirm a resumption of the bull cycle. The move higher maintains a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Gilt futures remain in an uptrend and the contract traded higher Wednesday. The move confirms a resumption of the short-term uptrend and has resulted in a break of 105.20, the 76.4% retracement of the Nov 24 - Dec 28 bear leg.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.1022 3.00 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - Oct 13 price swing
• RES 3: 1.0954 High Apr 11, 2022
• RES 2: 1.0913 2.764 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - Oct 13 price swing
• RES 1: 1.0887 High Jan 18
• PRICE: 1.0834 @ 05:53 GMT Jan 20
• SUP 1: 1.0713 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0634 Low Jan 9
• SUP 3: 1.0545/1.0484 50-day EMA / Low Jan 6
• SUP 4: 1.0410 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band

EURUSD continues to consolidate closer to its recent highs. The trend outlook remains bullish. The recent break of 1.0787, May 30 2022 high, reinforces bullish conditions and maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies continue to highlight a bullish backdrop. The focus is on 1.0913, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at 1.0713, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bulls Have Their Sights On 1.2446 Resistance

• RES 4: 1.2599 High Jun 7
• RES 3: 1.2558 High Jub 9, 2022
• RES 2: 1.2506 1.382 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - Oct 12 price swing
• RES 1: 1.2446 High Dec 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2382 @ 06:08 GMT Jan 20
• SUP 1: 1.2176/2083 20-day EMA / Low Jan 9
• SUP 2: 1.2044 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.1842 Low Jan 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.1779 Low Nov 21

GBPUSD remains firm and is trading at this week’s highs. Short-term resistance at 1.2303 has been cleared, the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 14 - Jan 6 bear leg. The clear breach exposes 1.2446, the Dec 14 high and the next key resistance. Clearance of this level would strengthen bullish conditions. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 1.2083, the Jan 9 low. The 20-day EMA at 1.2176, is first support.

EURGBP TECHS: Maintains A Softer Tone

• RES 4: 0.8992 61.8% Retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8980 High Sep 29
• RES 2: 0.8907 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8804/97 High Jan 18 / 13 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8753 @ 06:28 GMT Jan 20
• SUP 1: 0.8722 Low Jan 19
• SUP 2: 0.8691 Low Dec 19
• SUP 3: 0.8630 76.4% retracement of the Dec 1 - Jan 13 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.8593 Low Dec 15

EURGBP maintains a softer tone following this week’s move lower. The cross has traded below the 50-day EMA, at 0.8755. The average represents a key short-term support and a clear break of it would undermine the recent bull phase and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 0.8691 initially, the Dec 19 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.8897, the Jan 13 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Bear Flag

• RES 4: 134.77/81 High Jan 6 / 23.6% Oct - Jan downleg
• RES 3: 134.62 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 132.87 High Jan 11
• RES 1: 131.16/58 20-day EMA / High Jan 18
• PRICE: 129.15 @ 06:57 GMT Jan 20
• SUP 1: 127.23 Low Jan 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 126.81 1.382 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 126.36 Low May 24 and a key support
• SUP 4: 125.49 1.50 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing

USDJPY remains below this week’s high and the 20-day EMA. The average intersects at 131.16 today. Recent activity appears to be a bear flag formation - if correct it reinforces the downtrend and signals scope for a continuation of the trend. A break lower would open 126.81, a Fibonacci projection - the bear trigger is 127.23, the Jan 16 low. On the upside, clearance of 131.58, Wednesday's high, would be bullish.

EURJPY TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 143.16 61.8% retracement of the Dec 15 - Jan 3 bear leg
• RES 3: 142.86/94 High Jan 11 / High Dec 28 and key resistance
• RES 2: 141.69 High Jan 18
• RES 1: 140.47/141.69 20-day EMA / High Jan 18
• PRICE: 139.80 @ 07:17 GMT Jan 20
• SUP 1: 137.92 Low Jan 19
• SUP 2: 137.39 Low Jan 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 137.03 Low Aug 29
• SUP 4: 136.02 Low Aug 25

EURJPY continues to trade below Wednesday’s high of 141.69. The reversal from 141.69 highlights a bearish threat and has exposed support at 137.39, the Jan 3 low and bear trigger. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 137.03, the Aug 29 low. MA studies remain in a bear mode position and this highlights a dominant downtrend. Key resistance is at 141.69/142.86, the Jan 18 and 11 highs respectively.

AUDUSD TECHS: Remains Above Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.7200 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 0.7137 High Aug 11
• RES 2: 0.7063 High Jan 18
• RES 1: 0.7063 High Jan 18 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6937 @ 07:57 GMT Jan 20
• SUP 1: 0.6867 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6775 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6688 Low Jan 3 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.6650 Low Dec 22

AUDUSD remains below Wednesday’s high of 0.7063 and the pair traded lower Thursday. Short-term weakness is considered corrective - for now. Attention is on support at 0.6867, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would signal scope for a deeper pullback and potentially open 0.6775, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of 0.7063 is required to confirm a resumption of recent bullish activity.

USDCAD TECHS: Pierces The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.3751 High Nov 4
• RES 3: 1.3705 Dec 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3665 High Jan 6
• RES 1: 1.3521 High Jan 19
• PRICE: 1.3453 @ 08:02 GMT Jan 20
• SUP 1: 1.3322 Low Jan 13
• SUP 2: 1.3317 Low Nov 24 / 25
• SUP 3: 1.3226 Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally

USDCAD is trading closer to its recent highs. This week’s move higher has resulted in a print above 1.3500, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this area of resistance would signal potential for a stronger recovery near-term and open 1.3665, the Jan 6 high. Key resistance is at 1.3705, the Dec 16 high . Key short-term support has been defined at 1.3322, the Jan 13 low. A break would resume recent bearish activity.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H3) Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 142.91 High Dec 7 and key resistance
• RES 3: 142.55 High Dec 8
• RES 2: 141.70 High Dec 13
• RES 1: 140.73 High Jan 19
• PRICE: 139.42 @ 05:13 GMT Jan 20
• SUP 1: 138.97 Low Jan 18
• SUP 2: 137.53 Low Jan 16 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 136.46 Low Jan 11
• SUP 4: 136.04 Low Jan 10

Bund futures remain in an uptrend and the contract has traded to fresh highs this week to confirm a resumption of the bull cycle. The move higher maintains a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Furthermore, price has breached all retracement points of the Dec 7 - Jan 3 bear leg, reinforcing current bullish conditions. Sights are on 141.70 next, the Dec 13 high. On the downside, initial firm support is at 137.53, the Jan 16 low.

BOBL TECHS: (H3) Trend Direction Remains Up

• RES 4: 119.490 High Dec 13
• RES 3: 119.310 High Dec 14
• RES 2: 119.086 76.4% retracement of the Dec 7 - Jan 2 downleg
• RES 1: 118.880 High Jan 19
• PRICE: 118.160 @ 05:20 GMT Jan 20
• SUP 1: 117.679 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 117.560 Low Jan 16 and a key support
• SUP 3: 117.170 Low Jan 11
• SUP 4: 116.950 Low Jan 10

Bobl futures trend conditions remain bullish and this week’s gains reinforce the current positive outlook. Yesterday’s pullback is considered corrective. The move higher this week marks an extension of the recent break of the 20-day EMA - signalling potential for a continuation higher near-term. Attention is on 119.086, 76.4% of the Dec 7 - Jan 2 downleg. Initial firm support lies at 117.560, Jan 16 low. A break would signal a likely reversal.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H3) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 106.517 76.4% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg
• RES 3: 106.370 Low Dec 12
• RES 2: 106.296 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg
• RES 1: 106.155 High Jan 18
• PRICE: 105.920 @ 05:30 GMT Jan 20
• SUP 1: 105.871 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 105.735 Low Jan 16
• SUP 3: 105.375 Low Jan 11
• SUP 4: 105.625 Low Jan 10

Schatz futures maintain a positive short-term tone and pullbacks are considered corrective. Price has recently cleared the 20-day EMA and this reinforced short-term bullish conditions. The focus is on a climb towards 106.296, 61.8% of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg. On the downside, the firm support to watch lies at 105.735, the Jan 16 low. A break would signal a potential reversal.

GILT TECHS: (H3) Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 107.06 High Nov 24 and key resistance
• RES 3: 106.18 High Dec 12
• RES 2: 106.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 105.71 High Jan 18
• PRICE: 104.87 @ Close Jan 19
• SUP 1: 103.21/102.78 Low Jan 17 and key S/T support / High Jan 6
• SUP 2: 102.19/101.40 Low Jan 11 / 10
• SUP 3: 99.97 Low Jan 3
• SUP 4: 99.18 Low Dec 28 and the bear trigger

Gilt futures remain in an uptrend and the contract traded higher Wednesday. The move confirms a resumption of the short-term uptrend and has resulted in a break of 105.20, the 76.4% retracement of the Nov 24 - Dec 28 bear leg. This paves the way for gains towards 107.06, the Nov 24 high and a key resistance. On the downside, initial firm support has been defined at 103.21, the Jan 17 low. A break would threaten the recent recovery.

BTP TECHS: (H3) Key Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 120.73 0.764 proj of the Dec 30 - Jan 12 - 16 price swing
• RES 3: 120.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 118.96 High Dec 7 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 118.56 High Jan 19
• PRICE: 117.53 @ Close Jan 19
• SUP 1: 116.03 Low Jan 18
• SUP 2: 114.46/114.05 Low Jan 16 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 111.59 Low Jan 6
• SUP 4: 110.77 Low Jan 4

The current bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact and the contract traded higher again Thursday, before pulling back. All retracement points of the Dec 7 - 30 bear cycle have been cleared and this signals scope for a test of key resistance at 118.96, the Dec 7 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen bullish conditions. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 114.46, the Jan 16 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Overbought Condition Unwinds

• RES 4: 4269.50 2.236 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rise from Dec 20 low
• RES 3: 4230.50 High Feb 10, 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 4215.00 2.00 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rise from Dec 20 low
• RES 1: 4206.00 High Jan 18
• PRICE: 4121.00 @ 05:42 GMT Jan 20
• SUP 1: 4043.00 High Dec 13
• SUP 2: 4038.20/3923.30 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 3753.00 Low Dec 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3720.00 Low Nov 10

EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded lower Thursday. The broader trend outlook remains bullish, however, the cycle is overbought and this warns of the potential for a short-term pullback. A move lower would allow the overbought reading to unwind. A continuation lower would open 4038.20, the 20-day EMA and a key near-term support. On the upside, key short-term resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 4206.00, the Jan 18 high.

E-MINI S&P (H3): Trades Through The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4194.25 High Sep 13
• RES 3: 4180.00 High Dec 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 4090.75 High Dec 14
• RES 1: 4035.25 High Jan 18
• PRICE: 3924.75 @ 06:57 GMT Jan 20
• SUP 1: 3901.75/3891.50 Low Jan 19 / Low Jan 10
• SUP 2: 3788.50/78.45 Low Dec 22 / 61.8% of Oct 13-Dec 13 uptrend
• SUP 3: 3735.00 Low Nov 3
• SUP 4: 3670.00 76.4% retracement of the Oct 13 - Dec 13 uptrend

S&P E-Minis traded lower again Thursday. A key short-term resistance has been defined at 4035.25, the Jan 17 high and price has traded through support at 3930.77, the 50-day EMA. A clear break would highlight a potential bearish reversal and expose 3891.50, the Jan 10 low. On the upside, the contract needs to clear 4035.25 to cancel any developing bearish threat and confirm a resumption of recent bullish activity.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H3) Remains Below Wednesday’s High

• RES 4: $92.43 - High Nov 16
• RES 3: $90.49 - High Nov 17
• RES 2: $89.18 - High Dec 1
• RES 1: $87.85 - High Jan 18 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $86.41 @ 06:53 GMT Jan 20
• SUP 1: $83.29/77.61 - 20-day EMA / Low Jan 5
• SUP 2: $75.64 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $73.73 - 1.00 proj of the Nov 7 - 28 - Dec 1 price swing
• SUP 4: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)

Brent futures remain below Wednesday’s short-term trend high of $87.85. Support at $83.29, the 20-day EMA, remains exposed. A break of this average would highlight a possible bearish reversal and open $77.61, the Jan 5 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $87.85 where a break is required to cancel any bearish threat and instead confirm a resumption of recent bullish activity.

WTI TECHS: (G3) Key Short-Term Resistance Defined at $82.38

• RES 4: $86.26 - 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 9 bear leg
• RES 3: $84.10 - High Nov 17
• RES 2: $83.27 - High Dec 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $82.38 - High Jan 18
• PRICE: $80.76 @ 06:36 GMT Jan 20
• SUP 1: $77.75/72.46 - 20-day EMA / Low Jan 5
• SUP 2: $70.31 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $68.19 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing
• SUP 4: $65.47 - 1.382 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing

WTI futures traded higher Wednesday but price pulled back from the $82.38 session high. This highlights a potential bearish threat. Attention is on support at $77.75, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would highlight a stronger bear threat and expose support at $72.46, the Jan 5 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at $82.38 where a break would reinstate the recent bullish theme.

GOLD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High

• RES 4: $1998.4 - High Apr 18, 2022
• RES 3: $1982.0 - High Apr 19, 2022
• RES 2: $1963.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bear leg
• RES 1: $1935.2 - High Apr 25, 2022
• PRICE: $1929.5 @ 07:26 GMT Jan 20
• SUP 1: $1896.7/67.4 - Low Jan 12 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1825.2 - Low Jan 5 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $1797.1 - Low Dec 28
• SUP 4: $1774.0 - Low Dec 15

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the yellow metal traded to a fresh cycle high on Thursday. This confirms an extension on the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position - reflecting the uptrend. The focus is on $1963.0 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Support to watch lies at $1867.4, the 20-day EMA. Short-term pullbacks are considered corrective.

SILVER TECHS: Trend Structure Still Bullish

• RES 4: $26.002 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $25.293 - High Apr 20
• RES 2: $24.729 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 1: $24.548 - High Jan 3 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $24.058 @ 08:09 GMT Jan 20
• SUP 1: $22.819 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $22.557 - Low Dec 16 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $20.872 - Low Nov 28
• SUP 4: $20.585 - Low Nov 21

The uptrend in Silver remains bullish and the most recent move lower is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position and fresh trend highs in December reinforced the positive theme. Furthermore, the move higher has maintained the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on $24.729, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support is at $22.557, the Dec 16 low.