MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - e-mini S&P Narrowing in on ATH

Price Signal Summary – e-mini S&P Narrowing in on ATH

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis traded higher again yesterday. Price action on Oct 14 resulted in a move above the 50-day EMA and bulls haven't looked back. The breach of the average has also strengthened the case for bulls and this week's positive price action has resulted in a move above 4472.00, Oct 7 high and 4500.00. EUROSTOXX 50 futures have cleared the 50-day EMA. The clear breach of this average and the recent break of a number of resistance points has exposed 4200.50, the Sep 24 high.
• In FX, EURUSD traded higher Tuesday, resuming the recovery that started Oct 13. The pair has also moved above its 20-day EMA and the break of this average signals scope for a stronger short-term corrective bounce that has opened the 50-day EMA at 1.1701. GBPUSD traded firmer Tuesday extending the rally that started late September. The pair has moved above the 50-day EMA and Tuesday's technical break was a breach of 1.3795, 76.4% of the Sep 14 -29 downleg.
• On the commodity front, Gold failed to hold onto recent highs and Friday's sharp sell-off continues to highlight a potential bearish threat. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $1800.6, the Oct 14 high. WTI trend conditions remain bullish. The focus is on $84.00 next.
• In the FI space, the path of least resistance remains down. Bund futures remain in a downtrend and bearish pressure has resumed with the contract through support at 168.21, Oct 12 low. The break lower paves the way for weakness towards 167.98 next, a Fibonacci projection. Gilt futures remain above recent lows. Recent gains are considered corrective and the bounce has allowed an oversold condition to unwind.

MNI MARKET ANALYSIS: EURGBP Is Approaching A Major Range Base

• A bearish EURGBP cycle has dominated this year as the cross weakens within a broad range.
• This range is defined by its peak at 0.9300 and a base at the 0.8300 handle.
• The cross last traded at the top of the range in 2020 and as is typical with ranges, the trend since has been down.

FULL PIECE HERE: https://marketnews.com/mni-markets-analysis-eurgbp...

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Correction Still In Play

• RES 4: 1.1821 High Sep 16
• RES 3: 1.1742/55 Bear channel from Jun 1 high / High Sep 22
• RES 2: 1.1701 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.1669 High Oct 19
• PRICE: 1.1651 @ 06:00 BST Oct 20
• SUP 1: 1.1572/24 Low Oct 18 / Low Oct 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1493 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Jan '21 bull phase
• SUP 3: 1.1469 1.236 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1402 Bear channel base drawn from the Jun 1 high

EURUSD traded higher Tuesday, resuming the recovery that started Oct 13. The pair has also moved above its 20-day EMA and the break of this average signals scope for a stronger short-term corrective bounce that has opened the 50-day EMA at 1.1701. Broader trend conditions remain bearish though and current gains are considered corrective. A resumption of weakness would open the key support and bear trigger at 1.1524.

GBPUSD TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 1.3983 High Jul 30
• RES 3: 1.3958 High Aug 4
• RES 2: 1.3913 High Sep 14 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3854 High Sep 15
• PRICE: 1.3809 @ 06:06 BST Oct 20
• SUP 1: 1.3709/3670 Low Oct 18 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3544/3412 Low Oct 6 / Low Sep 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3387 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.3354 Low Dec 23, 2020

GBPUSD traded firmer Tuesday extending the rally that started late September. The pair has moved above the 50-day EMA and Tuesday's technical break was a breach of 1.3795, 76.4% of the Sep 14 -29 downleg. The break higher opens 1.3913, Sep 14 high. On the downside, a firm short-term support has been defined at 1.3544, Oct 6 low. Initial support is at 1.3709/3670.

EURGBP TECHS: Consolidating

• RES 4: 0.8624/58 High Oct 1 / High Sep 29
• RES 3: 0.8533 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.8518 High Oct 12 and a firm resistance
• RES 1: 0.8487 High Oct 15
• PRICE: 0.8439 @ 06:16 BST Oct 20
• SUP 1: 0.8423 Low Oct 19
• SUP 2: 0.8392 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8356 Low Feb 26, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.8339 Low Feb 25, 2020

EURGBP is consolidating but remains vulnerable. The cross has recently cleared 0.8450, Oct 10 low and a key support, reinforcing a bearish theme. This paves the way for an extension lower, opening 0.8392 next, a vol based support. Further out, there is scope too for an extension below 0.8400 to open 0.8356, the Feb 26, 2020 low. Firm resistance has been defined at 0.8518, Oct 12 high where a break is required to signal a short-term base.

USDJPY TECHS: Fresh Trend High

• RES 4: 116.08 1.764 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 price swing
• RES 3: 155.51 High Mar 10, 2017
• RES 2: 114.99 1.50 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 price swing
• RES 1: 114.73 High Nov 6, 2017
• PRICE: 114.57 @ 06:31 BST Oct 20
• SUP 1: 113.65/00 Low Oct 15 / Low Oct 12
• SUP 2: 112.08 High Sep 30 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 111.51 Low Oct 8
• SUP 4: 110.82/80 Low Oct 4 / High Aug 11

USDJPY remains firm and has traded to a fresh trend high today. A strong bullish theme follows the break last week of a long-term trendline (at 113.41) drawn off the December 1975 high. Bulls have not looked back and momentum continues to suggest scope for further upside. Attention is on 115.51, the Mar 10 high, 2017. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 112.08, Sep 30 high and a recent breakout level.

EURJPY TECHS: Defying Gravity

• RES 4: 134.40 2.382 proj of the Sep 22 - 29 - Oct 6 price swing
• RES 3: 134.13 High Jun 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 133.76 High Jun 10
• RES 1: 133.48 Intraday high
• PRICE: 133.43 @ 06:38 BST Oct 20
• SUP 1: 132.15/131.27 Low Oct 18 / Low Oct 14
• SUP 2: 130.75 Sep 3 high
• SUP 3: 130.16 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 129.28 Low Oct 11

EURJPY maintains a bullish tone and continues to defy gravity. The move higher confirms an extension of the upleg that started at 128.33, Oct 6 low. The cross has recently cleared 130.75, Sep 3 high and a recent bull trigger and the rally has maintained an impulsive bullish drive. The focus is on 133.76 next, Jun 10 high and 134.13, the Jun 1 high. Initial support is at 132.15, Oct 18 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Price Sequence

• RES 4: 0.7630 1.236 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 - Sep 29 price swing
• RES 3: 0.7599 High Jul 6
• RES 2: 0.7534 High Jul 7
• RES 1: 0.7503 High Jul 13
• PRICE: 0.7492 @ 06:45 BST Oct 20
• SUP 1: 0.7379 Low Oct 18
• SUP 2: 0.7344 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.7288 Low Oct 8
• SUP 4: 0.7226/7170 Low Oct 6 / Low Sep 29

AUDUSD maintains a firmer short-term tone and the contract traded higher Tuesday. The pair is firmer today too and importantly has traded above resistance at 0.7478, Sep 3 high and a bull trigger. The breach of this hurdle has removed recent bearish considerations and strengthens a bullish case as a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows is established. This opens 0.7503 next, the Jul 13 high. Support has been defined at 0.7379.

USDCAD TECHS: Still In A Bear Cycle

• RES 4: 1.2648 High Oct 6
• RES 3: 1.2560 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.2494 Low Sep 3 and a recent breakout level
• RES 1: 1.2449 High Oct 14
• PRICE: 1.2344 @ 06:49 BST Oct 20
• SUP 1: 1.2303 Low Jul 6
• SUP 2: 1.2253 Low Jun 23
• SUP 3: 1.2229 76.4% retracement of the Jun - Aug rally
• SUP 4: 1.2157 Low Jun 16

USDCAD remains in a bear cycle. Key support at the Jul 30 low of 1.2422 has recently been cleared reinforcing bearish conditions and this signals scope for an extension of the downleg. The break has opened 1.2303 next, Jul 6 low. Note too that moving average conditions appear to be turning bearish, reinforcing the current sentiment. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2494, Sep 3 low. A break would ease the current bearish pressure.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z1) Resumes Its Downtrend

• RES 4: 171.72 High Sep 23
• RES 3: 170.76 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 170.55 High Oct 4
• RES 1: 169.48/92 High Oct 19 / High Oct 14 and key resistance
• PRICE: 168.13 @ 05:11 BST Oct 20
• SUP 1: 168.08 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 167.98 2.382 proj of the Sep 9 - 17 - 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 167.79 2.50 proj of the Sep 9 - 17 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 167.52 Low Mar 19 2020

Bund futures remain in a downtrend and bearish pressure has resumed with the contract through support at 168.21, Oct 12 low. The break lower paves the way for weakness towards 167.98 next, a Fibonacci projection and 167.52, the Mar 19, 2020 low on the continuation chart. Moving average signals continue to point south, reinforcing the current sentiment. Initial key resistance is seen at 169.92, the Oct 14 high.

BOBL TECHS: (Z1) Trend Direction Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 135.200 Low Sep 17, high Oct 4 and recent breakout level
• RES 3: 135.060 High Oct 7
• RES 2: 134.860 High Oct 14 and key resistance
• RES 1: 134.580 High Oct 18
• PRICE: 134.100 @ 05:29 BST Oct 20
• SUP 1: 134.045 1.50 proj of the Sep 21 - 28 - Oct 4 price swing
• SUP 2: 134.070 Low Jul 6 (cont)
• SUP 3: 133.954 1.618 proj of the Sep 21 - 28 - Oct 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 133.842 1.764 proj of the Sep 21 - 28 - Oct 4 price swing

Bobl futures started the week on a softer note and the contract traded to a fresh trend low once again yesterday. This confirms a resumption of the underlying downtrend and reinforces bearish conditions. Key resistance has been defined at 134.860, Oct 14 high and a breach of this level is required to signal scope for a short-term reversal. With momentum still pointing south, the focus is on 134.045, a Fibonacci projection.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z1) Heading South

• RES 4: 112.290 High Sep 20
• RES 3: 112.255 High Sep 23 and Oct 5 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 112.220 High Oct 14
• RES 1: 112.135 Low Oct 13 and yesterday's breakout level
• PRICE: 112.040 @ 05:35 BST Oct 20
• SUP 1: 112.025 2.00 proj of the Sep 20 - 28 - Oct 5 price swing
• SUP 2: 112.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 111.990 Low Aug 14 and 26, 2020 (cont)
• SUP 4: 111.967 2.50 proj of the Sep 20 - 28 - Oct 5 price swing

From a trend perspective, Schatz futures remain in a downtrend and this week's extension reinforces this condition. The break to fresh trend lows confirms a resumption of the downtrend, signalling scope for a continuation lower and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 112.025 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial resistance is at 112.135, Oct 13 low and Monday's breakout level.

GILT TECHS: (Z1) All Eyes On Support

• RES 4: 126.84 Low Sep 17
• RES 3: 126.44 High Sep 24
• RES 2: 125.72 High Oct 1
• RES 1: 125.27 High Oct 14 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 124.01 @ Close Oct 19
• SUP 1: 123.89/123.44 Low Oct 18 / Low Oct 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 123.16 Low Feb 27, 2019 (cont)
• SUP 3: 122.75 2.236 proj of the Aug 31 - Sep 17 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 122.15 Low Jan 18, 2019 (cont)

Gilt futures remain above recent lows. Recent gains are considered corrective and the bounce has allowed an oversold condition to unwind. Key near-term resistance is seen at 125.27, the Oct 14 high where a break is required to signal scope for a stronger recovery. The broader trend direction remains down and a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on last week's low of 123.44, the bear trigger.

BTP TECHS: (Z1) Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 155.14 High Aug 31
• RES 3: 154.64 High Sep 22 / 23
• RES 2: 153.59 High Sep 24
• RES 1: 152.54/87 High Oct 14 and key resistance / High Oct 1
• PRICE: 151.07 @ Close Oct 19
• SUP 1: 150.79 Low Oct 19
• SUP 2: 150.56 Low Jun 30 (cont)
• SUP 3: 150.00/149.97 Round number support / Low Jun 25
• SUP 4: 148.77 61.8% retracement of the May - Aug rally (cont)

BTP futures traded to a fresh trend low again yesterday. A key short-term resistance has been defined at 152.54, Oct 14 high where a break is required to signal a potential short-term base. The trend remains bearish and a resumption of weakness would open 150.56 next, the Jun 30 low on the continuation chart. Moving average conditions remain in a bear mode condition, reinforcing the current trend direction.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (Z1) Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 4234.50 0.764 projection of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 - 20 price swing
• RES 3: 4223.00 High Sep 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 4200.50 High Sep 24
• RES 1: 4175.00 High Oct 15
• PRICE: 4155.50 @ 05:52 BST Oct 20
• SUP 1: 4099.10 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4004.00 / 3949.50 Low Oct 12 / Low Oct 6 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3902.50 Low Jul 20
• SUP 4: 3882.00 Low Jul 19 and a key support

EUROSTOXX 50 futures are consolidating and holding onto the bulk of recent gains. Price action has recently cleared the 50-day EMA. The clear breach of this average and the recent break of a number of resistance points has exposed 4200.50, the Sep 24 high. Above this level is the major resistance and bull trigger at 4223.00, Sep 6 high. On the downside, the 50-day EMA, at 4099.10 today, marks initial support.

E-MINI S&P (Z1): Key Resistance Exposed

• RES 4: 4600.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4591.25 1.00 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - Aug 19 price swing
• RES 3: 4539.50 High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4519.75 High Sep 9
• PRICE: 4507.25 @ 07:01 BST Oct 20
• SUP 1: 4398.57 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4317.25/4260.00 Low Oct 12 / Low Oct 1 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4243.50 Low Jul 20
• SUP 4: 4214.50 Low Jul 19 and a key support

S&P E-minis traded higher again yesterday. Price action on Oct 14 resulted in a move above the 50-day EMA and bulls haven't looked back. The breach of the average has also strengthened the case for bulls and this week's positive price action has resulted in a move above 4472.00, Oct 7 high and 4500.00. This opens 4539.50, the Sep 3 high and a bull trigger. A key support is at 4317.25, Oct 12 low. The 50-day EMA at 4398.57 is first support.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Z1) Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $88.74 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 2: $86.55 - 1.764 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 1: $86.04 - High Oct 18
• PRICE: $84.78 @ 06:55 BST Oct 20
• SUP 1: $82.20/81.10 - Low Oct 13 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $79.08/78.75 - Low Oct 7 and key support / Low Oct 4
• SUP 3: $76.51/75.42 - Low Sep 30 and key support / High Sep 15
• SUP 4: $74.81 - Low Sep 23

The bull trend in Brent futures remains intact although currently, the contract is consolidating. The move higher marks a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that the futures have recently cleared the $80.00 handle, an important psychological hurdle. The focus is on $86.55 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm short-term support is seen at $82.20, Oct 13 low.

WTI TECHS: (Z1) Bulls Still In Control

• RES 4: 487.45 - 1.236 proj of the Sep 21 - Oct 6 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: $85.01 - 1.00 proj of the Sep 21 - Oct 6 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: $84.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $83.18 - High Oct 18
• PRICE: $82.07 @ 07:05 BST Oct 20
• SUP 1: $78.78 - Low Oct 13
• SUP 2: $77.76 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $74.67 - Low Oct 7 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: $72.82 - Low Sep 30 and key support

WTI trend conditions remain bullish and the contract is holding onto the bulk of recent gains. The recent move to fresh highs maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, reinforcing the uptrend. Note that the $80.00 psychological hurdle has also been cleared. The focus is on $85.01 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $79.42, Oct 13 low.

GOLD TECHS: Bearish Threat Still Present

• RES 4: $1844.9 - Low Jun 14
• RES 3: $1834.1 - High Jul 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $1808.7 - High Sep 14
• RES 1: $1800.6 - High Oct 14 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $1775.4 @ 07:19 BST Oct 20
• SUP 1: $1758.3 - Low Oct 13
• SUP 2: $1746.0 - Low Oct 6 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $1721.7 - Low Sep 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1717.8 - Low Aug 10

Gold failed to hold onto recent highs and Friday's sharp sell-off continues to highlight a potential bearish threat. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $1800.6, the Oct 14 high. A resumption of weakness would expose support at $1746.0, Oct 6 low and clearance of this level would reinforce a bearish threat and attention would turn to $1721.7, Sep 29 low. For bulls, a break of $1800.6 is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme.

SILVER TECHS: Bull Mode Intact

• RES 4: $25.206 - High Jun 8
• RES 3: $24.867 - High Sep 3 and the reversal trigger
• RES 2: $24.411 - High Sep 8
• RES 1: $24.125 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $23.877@ 07:27 BST Oct 20
• SUP 1: $23.015 - Low Oct 18
• SUP 2: $22.213 - Low Oct 6
• SUP 3: $21.423 - Low Sep 29
• SUP 4: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb '21 rally

Silver maintains a short-term bull tone. Last week the metal cleared the 20-day EMA and price has also traded above the 50-day EMA. A continuation would pave the way for a stronger short-term recovery and open $24.411 next, the Sep 8 high. Clearance of this level would suggest potential for stronger gains towards $24.867, Sep 3 high and the bull trigger. Initial firm support to watch is at $23.015, Oct 18 low.