MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - E-mini S&P Renews Bearish Threat

Price Signal Summary – E-mini S&P Renews Bearish Threat

• S&P e-minis maintain a softer tone and the contract traded lower Thursday. This week’s breach of support at 4235.50, the Oct 4 low and bear trigger, confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A bearish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play and price is trading closer to its recent lows. Support at 4082.00, the Oct 4 low and a bear trigger, has recently been cleared.
• EURUSD maintains a softer tone and is trading below 1.0694, Tuesday’s high. The move down this week reinforces a bearish theme and suggests that the recent correction between Oct 3 - 24 is over. USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat. Resistance at 150.16, the Oct 3 high, has been breached and this marks a resumption of the uptrend and a continuation of the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. AUDUSD is trading closer to its recent lows and Thursday’s low print reinforces a bearish theme. The pair has pierced 0.6286, the Oct 3 / 13 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 0.6215.
• Gold conditions are unchanged - the metal remains firm and is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Price has breached key resistance at $1953.0, the Sep 1 high, and $1987.5, the Jul 20 high. The break strengthens a bullish theme and opens $2003.4. WTI futures have traded lower this week as the pullback from $89.85, the Oct 20 high, extends. The medium-term trend condition is bullish and the recent move lower appears to be a correction.
• Bund futures remain in a downtrend and short-term gains are considered corrective. The contract is trading below Tuesday’s high. Initial support to watch is 127.18, the Oct 23 low. A break would be a bearish development and expose the bear trigger at 126.62. Gilt futures maintain a bearish theme and this week’s gains are considered corrective. For bears, price has recently traded through key support at 91.47, the Aug 17 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and has paved the way for a move towards 90.38.

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 1.0862 50.0% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.0809 High Sep 4
• RES 2: 1.0764 38.2% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.0694/0737 High Oct 24 / High Sep 20
• PRICE: 1.0567 @ 06:00 BST Oct 27
• SUP 1: 1.0496 Low Oct 13
• SUP 2: 1.0448 Low Oct 03 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0406 50.0% retracement of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.0363 2.0% 10-dma envelope

EURUSD maintains a softer tone and is trading below 1.0694, Tuesday’s high. The move down this week reinforces a bearish theme and suggests that the recent correction between Oct 3 - 24 is over. Note too that Tuesday’s price pattern is a bearish engulfing candle - a reversal signal. A continuation lower would signal scope for 1.0496, the Oct 13 low. The key support and bear trigger lies at 1.0448, Oct 3 low. Key short-term resistance is 1.0694.

GBPUSD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.2548 High Sep 11
• RES 3: 1.2506 High Sep 14
• RES 2: 1.2441 200-dma
• RES 1: 1.2289/2337 High Oct 24 / 11 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2138 @ 06:16 Oct 27
• SUP 1: 1.2037/28 Low Oct 04 and bear trigger / Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: 1.2011 Low Mar 15 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.1964 3.00 proj of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1908 Low Mar 10

GBPUSD remains below Tuesday’s high. The trend outlook is bearish and gains are considered corrective. Attention is on 1.2037, the Oct 4 low and bear trigger. A break of this level would resume the downtrend that started in July and open 1.1964, a 3.00 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing. For bulls, clearance of 1.2337, the Oct 11 high, would signal scope for a stronger corrective cycle and highlight a short-term base.

EURGBP TECHS: Bulls Pause For Breath

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3
• RES 3: 0.8793 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 downleg
• RES 2: 0.8768 High May 5
• RES 1: 0.8741 High Oct 20
• PRICE: 0.8706 @ 06:25 BST Oct 27
• SUP 1: 0.8678 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8647/16 50-day EMA / Low Oct 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8569 Low Sep 15 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8558 Low Sep 11

A bullish theme in EURGBP remains intact and the cross is consolidating closer to its recent highs. The breach of key short-term resistance at 0.8706, the Sep 26 high and a bull trigger, has confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition too, highlighting positive market sentiment. The focus is on 0.8793, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 0.8678, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 153.52 2.236 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 3: 152.20 3.00 proj of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 151.95 High Oct 21 and a major resistance
• RES 1: 151.09 2.764 proj of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• PRICE: 150.18 @ 06:37 BST Oct 27
• SUP 1: 149.46/147.91 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 147.43 Low Oct 3 and key support
• SUP 3: 146.44 Low Sep 12
• SUP 4: 145.91 Low Sep 11

USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat. Resistance at 150.16, the Oct 3 high, has been breached and this marks a resumption of the uptrend and a continuation of the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and this reflects the market's positive sentiment. Sights are on 151.09 next, a Fibonacci projection point. Initial support to watch is 149.46, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 161.52 2.618 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 160.94 2.50 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 160.36 2.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 159.92 High Oct 24
• PRICE: 158.66 @ 06:46 BST Oct 27
• SUP 1: 158.23/10 20-day EMA / Low Oct 26
• SUP 2: 156.98 Low Oct 16
• SUP 3: 155.83 Low Oct 4
• SUP 4: 154.46 Oct 3 and the bear trigger

The trend outlook in EURJPY remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Gains earlier in the week resulted in a print above key resistance at 159.76, the Aug 30 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of 159.76 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards 160.36, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at 158.23, the 20-day EMA. Key support is far off at 154.46, the Oct 3 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Heading South

• RES 4: 0.6616 High Aug 16
• RES 3: 0.6522 High Aug 30 and Sep 1, and the key resistance
• RES 2: 0.6445/6501 High Oct 11 / High Sep 29
• RES 1: 0.6411 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6342 @ 07:26 BST Oct 27
• SUP 1: 0.6272/70 Low Nov 3 2022 / Oct 26 and key support
• SUP 2: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6170 Low Oct 13 2022 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6135 2.50 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing

AUDUSD is trading closer to its recent lows and Thursday’s low print reinforces a bearish theme. The pair has pierced 0.6286, the Oct 3 / 13 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 0.6215, a Fibonacci projection. Key trend resistance is unchanged at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. Clearance of this level is required to highlight a reversal. Initial resistance to watch is at 0.6411, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Trend Structure

• RES 4: 1.4070 1.236 proj of the Sep 19 - Oct 5 - Oct 10 price swing
• RES 3: 1.3987 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3977 High Oct 13 and a major resistance
• RES 1: 1.3862 High Mar 10 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.3819 @ 07:55 BST Oct 27
• SUP 1: 1.3681/3595 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 1.3477 76.4% retracement of the Sep 19 - Oct 5 rally
• SUP 3: 1.3417 Low Sep 29
• SUP 4: 1.3381 Low Sep 19 and a key support

The USDCAD trend condition remains bullish and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. This week’s climb resulted in a break of key resistance at 1.3786, the Oct 5 high. This strengthens bullish conditions and confirms a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are 1.3862, the Mar 10 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting an uptrend. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 1.3681, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z3) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 131.33 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Oct 4 downleg
• RES 3: 130.43 61.8% retracement of the Sep 1 - Oct 4 downleg
• RES 2: 130.20 High Oct 12 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 129.12/129.47 High Oct 24 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 128.80 @ 05:38 BST Oct 27
• SUP 1: 127.18 Low Oct 23
• SUP 2: 126.62 Low Oct 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 126.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 125.49 0.764 proj of the Sep 1 - Oct 4 - Oct 12 price swing

Bund futures remain in a downtrend and short-term gains are considered corrective. The contract is trading below Tuesday’s high. Initial support to watch is 127.18, the Oct 23 low. A break would be a bearish development and expose the bear trigger at 126.62. On the upside, a stronger resumption of gains would signal scope for a test of resistance at 129.47, the 50-day EMA. A breach of the average would signal scope for a stronger recovery.

BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Bearish Theme

• RES 4: 116.567 61.8% retracement of the Sep 1 - Sep 28 downleg
• RES 3: 116.500 High Oct 10 and the short-term bull trigger
• RES 2: 116.380 High Oct 13
• RES 1: 116.150 High Oct 16
• PRICE: 116.090 @ 05:48 BST Oct 27
• SUP 1: 115.480/130 Low Oct 26 / 19
• SUP 2: 114.880 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 114.710 Low Aug 15 (cont)
• SUP 4: 114.414 0.764 proj of the Sep 1 - 28 - Oct 12 price swing

Short-term gains in Bobl futures appear to be a correction. The sell-off between Oct 10 - 19, undermines the recent bullish theme. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at 114.880, the Sep 28 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend. Key short-term resistance and a bull trigger has been defined at 116.500, the Oct 10 high. A break would instead signal a short-term reversal.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Short-Term Gains Are Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 105.440 High Sep 4
• RES 3: 105.372 76.4% Fibonacci retracement Sep 1 - 21 downleg
• RES 2: 105.190/105.320 High Oct 12 / 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 105.140 High Oct 13
• PRICE: 105.105 @ 05:42 BST Oct 27
• SUP 1: 104.800 Low Oct 19
• SUP 2: 104.765 Low Sep 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 104.720 2.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.620 Low Jul 11 (cont)

A bear threat in Schatz futures remains present and the latest recovery is considered corrective. Key resistance is at 105.320, the Oct 10 high and marks a short-term bull trigger. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on key support at 104.765, the Sep 21 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term downtrend. Initial resistance is at 105.140, the Oct 13 high.

GILT TECHS: (Z3) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 96.05 High Sep 25
• RES 3: 95.66 High Oct 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 93.82/94.28 61.8% of the Oct 12 - 23 bear leg / High Oct 16
• RES 1: 93.34 High Oct 24
• PRICE: 92.32 @ Close Oct 26
• SUP 1: 91.62/90.85 Low Oct 26 / 23
• SUP 2: 90.38 Low Oct 12 2022 (cont) and a major support
• SUP 3: 90.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 89.22 1.236 proj of the Sep 20 - Oct 4 - Oct 12 price swing

Gilt futures maintain a bearish theme and this week’s gains are considered corrective. For bears, price has recently traded through key support at 91.47, the Aug 17 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and has paved the way for a move towards 90.38, the Oct 12 2022 low (cont) and a major support. Initial resistance is at 93.34, Tuesday’s high. A break would suggest scope for a stronger correction.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Trend Structure Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 113.69 76.4% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 3: 112.53 61.8% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 2: 111.59 50.0% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 1: 110.00/111.17 High Oct 24 / 12 and key resistance
• PRICE: 109.14 @ Close Oct 26
• SUP 1: 107.42 Low Oct 19
• SUP 2: 107.08 2.236 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
• SUP 3: 106.40 2.382 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
• SUP 4: 105.85 2.50 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)

BTP futures traded to a fresh cycle low on Oct 19 as the contract extended the reversal from 111.17, the Oct 12 high. This resulted in a print below key support at 107.62, the Oct 4 low. A clear breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the long-term downtrend and open 107.08, a Fibonacci projection. 111.17 marks the key resistance. A break is required to highlight a possible short-term reversal. Recent gains are considered corrective.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Bearish Trend Structure

• RES 4: 4359.00 High Sep 15 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4205.50/4256.00 50-day EMA / High Oct 12
• RES 1: 4134.70 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 4075.00 @ 06:14 BST Oct 27
• SUP 1: 4006.00 Low Oct 23
• SUP 2: 3979.00 1.00 proj of the Sep 15 - Oct 4 - Oct 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 3914.00 Low Mar 20 (cont)
• SUP 4: 3873.20 1.382 proj of the Sep 15 - Oct 4 - Oct 12 price swing

A bearish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play and price is trading closer to its recent lows. Support at 4082.00, the Oct 4 low and a bear trigger, has recently been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on the 4000.00 handle. Initial firm resistance is at 4134.70, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z3) Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 4465.88 Trendline resistance drawn from the Jul 27 high
• RES 3: 4430.50 High Oct 12
• RES 2: 4382.41 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 4235.50/4312.52 Low Oct 4 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 4182.00 @ 07:00 BST Oct 27
• SUP 1: 4134.00 Low May 4
• SUP 2: 4124.19 61.8% retracement of the Mar - Jul bull leg (cont)
• SUP 3: 4100.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4090.35 1.764 proj of the Jul 27 - Aug 18 - Sep 1 price swing

S&P e-minis maintain a softer tone and the contract traded lower Thursday. This week’s breach of support at 4235.50, the Oct 4 low and bear trigger, confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too. The focus is on 4166.25, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 4312.52, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Z3) Recent Move Lower Appears To Be A Correction

• RES 4: $99.73 - 1.236 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
• RES 3: $96.22 - 1.00 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
• RES 2: $95.35 - High Sep 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $93.79 - High Oct 20
• PRICE: $89.52 @ 07:04 BST Oct 27
• SUP 1: $85.18/83.44 - Low Oct 12 / 6 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $82.80 - 50.0% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $81.33 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $79.84 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run

Brent futures traded lower Wednesday, extending the pullback from last week’s high of $93.79 (Oct 20), before recovering. The trend condition is bullish and recent short-term weakness is considered corrective. Key support lies at $83.44, the Oct 6 low. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at $95.35, the Sep 28 high. For bears, a break of $83.44, would highlight potential for a stronger bear cycle.

WTI TECHS: (Z3) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: $98.27 - 1.382 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: $96.03 - 1.236 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: $92.48 - High Sep 28 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $89.85 - High Oct 20
• PRICE: $84.65 @ 07:12 BST Oct 27
• SUP 1: $80.20 - Low Oct 6 and key support
• SUP 2: $77.74 - 50.0% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $75.47 - Low Jul 24
• SUP 4: $74.26 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run

WTI futures have traded lower this week as the pullback from $89.85, the Oct 20 high, extends. The medium-term trend condition is bullish and the recent move lower appears to be a correction. A resumption of gains would expose the bull trigger at $92.48, the Sep 28 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. For bears, a move through $80.20, the Oct 6 low, would instead highlight a short-term top.

GOLD TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: $2048.2 - High May 10
• RES 3: $2022.2 - High May 15
• RES 2: $2003.4 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Oct 6 bear leg
• RES 1: $1997.2 - High Oct 20
• PRICE: $1988.2 @ 07:19 BST Oct 27
• SUP 1: $1945.3/1920.8 - Low Oct 19 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1868.8 - Low Oct 13
• SUP 3: $1844.3 - Low Oct 9
• SUP 4: $1810.5 - Low Oct 6 and a key support

Gold conditions are unchanged - the metal remains firm and is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Price has breached key resistance at $1953.0, the Sep 1 high, and $1987.5, the Jul 20 high. The break strengthens a bullish theme and opens $2003.4, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm pivot support lies at $1915.3, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level is required to signal a short-term top and a potential reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: $25.267 - High Jul 20
• RES 3: $25.014 - High Aug 30
• RES 2: $24.298 - High Sep 4
• RES 1: $23.774 - High Sep 22 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $22.849 @ 08:02 BST Oct 27
• SUP 1: $22.371 - Low Oct 17
• SUP 2: $21.573/20.689 - Low Oct 9 / 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $20.000 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

A bull cycle in Silver remains in play and the metal is trading closer to its recent highs. Price has recently breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The break of the 50-day average, at $22.827, strengthens bullish conditions and the move higher has opened $23.774, the Sep 22 high. For bears, a reversal lower and a break of $20.689, Oct 3 low, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Initial support to watch is $22.371, the 20-day EMA.