MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - E-mini S&P Testing S/T Support

Price Signal Summary – E-mini S&P Testing S/T Support

• S&P E-minis traded low yesterday and this resulted in a test of the 50-day EMA at 4124.40. A clear break of this average would highlight a stronger short-term reversal and open 4062.25, the May 4 low and a key support. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded lower Wednesday and the contract remains soft - for now. The 50-day EMA, at 4266.20, has been pierced and this signals scope for weakness towards 4233.00, the May 4 low and a key short-term support.
• EURUSD traded lower Wednesday and has breached 1.0760, the May 19 low. This confirms a resumption of the current downtrend and price remains below the 50-day EMA. 1.0737, 61.8% of the Mar 15 - Apr 26 bull run, has been pierced. GBPUSD bears remain in the driver’s seat and the pair continues to weaken. Support at the 50-day EMA has been breached and price is also through 1.2345, the Apr 10 low. This signals scope for an extension of the bear cycle towards 1.2242 next, a Fibonacci retracement. AUDUSD traded lower Wednesday. Price has breached key support at 0.6565, the Mar 10 low. The clear break of this level confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started Feb 2 and highlights a range breakout.
• The bear cycle in Gold remains intact and price is trading closer to its recent lows. The yellow metal last week cleared support at $1975.3, the 50-day EMA and $1969.3, the Apr 19 low. WTI futures traded higher yesterday and this resulted in a test of the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $74.41. Short-term gains are considered corrective, however, a clear breach of the 50-day EMA would highlight a stronger bullish theme and expose $76.74, the Apr 28 high.
• Bund futures continue to trade closer to recent lows and remain in bearish mode following last week’s move lower. Support at 134.99, the May 10 low, has been breached and this strengthens the bearish theme. Gilt futures remain in a bear mode position but the contract managed to recover from yesterday’s low of 94.94. The trend is oversold and a rebound would allow the oversold condition to unwind.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 1.1007 High May 10
• RES 3: 1.0935 High May 12
• RES 2: 1.0870/74 50- and 20-day EMA values
• RES 1: 1.0831 High May 22
• PRICE: 1.0733 @ 05:48 BST May 25
• SUP 1: 1.0713 Low Mar 24
• SUP 2: 1.0653 76.4% retracement of the Mar 15 - Apr 26 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.0631 Low Mar 20
• SUP 4: 1.0608 Low Mar 17

EURUSD traded lower Wednesday and has breached 1.0760, the May 19 low. This confirms a resumption of the current downtrend and price remains below the 50-day EMA. 1.0737, 61.8% of the Mar 15 - Apr 26 bull run, has been pierced. This opens 1.0713 next, the Mar 24 low. A firm resistance is seen at 1.0874, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Clears Support

• RES 4: 1.2767 61.8% of the Jun 1 ‘21 - Sep 26 ‘22 downtrend
• RES 3: 1.2680 High May 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.2547/2641 High May 16 / 11
• RES 1: 1.2408/69 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2343 @ 06:03 BST May 25
• SUP 1: 1.2332 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.2275 Low Apr 3
• SUP 3: 1.2242 50.0% retracement of the Mar 8 - May 10 bull run
• SUP 4: 1.2213 Low Mar 27

GBPUSD bears remain in the driver’s seat and the pair continues to weaken. Support at the 50-day EMA has been breached and price is also through 1.2345, the Apr 10 low. This signals scope for an extension of the bear cycle towards 1.2242 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 1.2469, the 20-day EMA. A break above 1.2547, the May 16 high, is required to signal a reversal.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 0.8875 High Apr 25 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 0.8835 High May 3
• RES 2: 0.8761 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8721 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8698 @ 06:18 BST May 25
• SUP 1: 0.8649 76.4% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 2: 0.8593 Low Dec 15 2022
• SUP 3: 0.8562 Low Dec 13 2022
• SUP 4: 0.8547 Low Dec 1 2022 and key support

The EURGBP S/T trend needle points south and the cross yesterday pierced the May 11 low of 0.8661. The recent consolidation appears to be a bear flag, a clear break of 0.8661 would confirm a resumption of the trend, exposing 0.8649, a Fibonacci retracement and yesterday’s low, ahead of 0.8593, the Dec 15 2022 low. Initial firm resistance is at 0.8721 the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA intersects at 0.8761 where a break would signal a reversal.

USDJPY TECHS: Continues To Appreciate

• RES 4: 141.61 High Nov 23 2022
• RES 3: 140.66 Bull channel top drawn from the Jan 16 low
• RES 2: 140.00/12 round number resistance / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 139.89 High Nov 30 2022
• PRICE: 139.65 @ 06:46 BST May 25
• SUP 1: 138.23 Low May 24
• SUP 2: 137.77 High May 2 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 136.59 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 135.69 Low May 16

USDJPY bullish conditions remain intact and the pair continues to appreciate. Sights are on the 140.00 handle and a key resistance at 140.66, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Jan 16 low. Moving averages are in a bull mode position and this highlights the current positive sentiment. On the downside, initial support lies at 137.77, the May 2 high. A short-term pullback would be considered corrective.

EURJPY TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 152.00 1.382 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 3: 151.61 High May 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 150.32 76.4% retracement of the May 2 - 11 bear leg
• RES 1: 150.06 High May 23
• PRICE: 149.76 @ 07:03 BST May 25
• SUP 1: 148.51 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 146.92/13 50-day EMA / Low May 11
• SUP 3: 145.73 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 145.67 High Mar 31

EURJPY maintains a short-term bullish tone and the cross is holding on to its recent gains. The focus is on 150.32 next, a Fibonacci retracement, ahead of 151.61, the May 2 high and a bull trigger. The 50-day EMA, which intersects at 146.92, remains intact and marks a key support. A clear break of this average is required to signal a resumption of bearish activity. Initial support lies at 148.51, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Cracks Key Support

• RES 4: 0.6818 High May 10 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.6710 High May 16
• RES 2: 0.6660/91 20- and 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.6574 Low Apr 28
• PRICE: 0.6534 @ 07:59 BST May 25
• SUP 1: 0.6522 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.6403 76.4% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 3: 0.6387 Low Nov 10 2022
• SUP 4: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022

AUDUSD traded lower Wednesday. Price has breached key support at 0.6565, the Mar 10 low. The clear break of this level confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started Feb 2 and highlights a range breakout. The focus shifts to the 0.6403 Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, a breach of 0.6818 is required to reinstate a bullish theme. Initial firm resistance is seen at 0.6691, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 1.3695 High Mar 28
• RES 3: 1.3668 High Apr 28 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3640 High May 3
• RES 1: 1.3613 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.3608 @ 08:06 BST May 25
• SUP 1: 1.3485/1.3404 Low May 23 / 16
• SUP 2: 1.3363/15 Low May 11 / 8
• SUP 3: 1.3302 Low Apr 14 and a key near-term support
• SUP 4: 1.3275 Low Feb 14

USDCAD traded higher yesterday and in the process breached resistance at 1.3568, the May 15 high. The break reinforces short-term bullish conditions and sights are set on resistance at 1.3668, the Apr 28 high and a key level. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen the case for bulls. On the downside, initial support lies at 1.3485, the May 23 low. A break of 1.3404, the May 16 low, is required to reinstate a bearish threat.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 138.09 High Apr 6
• RES 3: 137.55 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 2: 137.29 High May 11
• RES 1: 134.97/136.38 20-day EMA / High May 16
• PRICE: 133.68 @ 05:21 BST May 25
• SUP 1: 133.46 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 133.10 Low Apr 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 132.71 76.4%retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 132.37 Low Mar 10

Bund futures continue to trade closer to recent lows and remain in bearish mode following last week’s move lower. Support at 134.99, the May 10 low, has been breached and this strengthens the bearish theme. The focus is on key support at 133.10, the Apr 19 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 137.29, the May 11 high. Initial resistance is 134.97, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 119.120 High May 4 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 118.610/119.020 High May 16 / 11
• RES 2: 118.240 High May 17
• RES 1: 117.739 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 116.990 @ 05:36 BST May 25
• SUP 1: 116.920 Low May 24
• SUP 2: 116.890 Low Apr 28
• SUP 3: 116.720 Low Apr 25
• SUP 4: 116.420 Low Apr19 and the bear trigger

The short-term outlook in Bobl futures remains bearish and the contract traded to a fresh short-term trend low yesterday. Price has recently breached support at 117.930, May 10 low. This signals scope for an extension lower and opens 116.890, Apr 28 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 119.120, the May 4 high where a break is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme. Initial firm resistance is seen at 117.739, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Heading South

• RES 4: 106.020/106.120 High May 11 / 4
• RES 3: 105.910 High May 16
• RES 2: 105.775 High May 17
• RES 1: 105.621 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 105.345 @ 05:44 BST May 25
• SUP 1: 105.330 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 105.235Low Apr 25
• SUP 3: 105.165 Low Apr 19 / 24 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 105.030 Low Mar 15

A bearish cycle in Schatz futures remains in play and the contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle low yesterday. Price last week breached support at 105.705, the May 10 low. This has strengthened current bearish conditions and signals scope for a move towards 105.165 next, the Apr 19 / 24 low and a bear trigger. On the upside, the bull trigger has been defined at 106.120, the May 4 high. Initial resistance is seen at 105.621, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 99.81 20-day EMA
• RES 3: 99.73 Low Apr 19
• RES 2: 99.21 High May 19
• RES 1: 97.98 High May 23
• PRICE: 96.61 @ Close May 24
• SUP 1: 94.76 76.4% of the Oct 12 - Nov 24 2022 rally (cont)
• SUP 2: 94.51 3.00 projection of the May 3 - 10 - 11 price swing
• SUP 3: 93.92 3.236 projection of the May 3 - 10 - 11 price swing
• SUP 4: 93.27 3.382 projection of the May 3 - 10 - 11 price swing

Gilt futures remain in a bear mode position but the contract managed to recover from yesterday’s low of 94.94. The trend is oversold and a rebound would allow the oversold condition to unwind. The primary trend direction remains down following the recent acceleration of the bear cycle. Sights are set on 94.76 next, 76.4% of the Oct 12 - Nov 24 2022 rally (cont). Initial resistance is at Tuesday’s intraday high of 97.98.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 116.97 High Apr 6
• RES 3: 116.17 76.4% retracement of the Mar 24 - Apr 24 downleg
• RES 2: 115.48/89 High May 16 / 11
• RES 1: 114.65 High May 22
• PRICE: 113.77 @ Close May 24
• SUP 1: 113.26 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 112.93/89 Low Apr 24 / 61.8% of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 3: 111.88 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 4: 111.05 Low Mar 8

A bearish threat in BTP futures remains present. The contract has recently traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Support at 113.91, the May 10 low, has also been breached. This signals scope for an extension lower towards key support at 112.93, the Apr 24 low. A breach of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. Key short-term resistance is at 115.89, the May 11 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Testing Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4510.50 0.618 proj of the Mar 20 - Apr 21 - May 4 price swing
• RES 3: 4457.50 0.5 proj of the Mar 20 - Apr 21 - May 4 price swing
• RES 2: 4448.00 High Jan 2008 (cont)
• RES 1: 4409.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• PRICE: 4271.00 @ 06:39 BST May 25
• SUP 1: 4253.00 Low May 24
• SUP 2: 4233.00 Low May 4 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 4175.00 Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: 4164.00 High Mar 22

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded lower Wednesday and the contract remains soft - for now. The 50-day EMA, at 4266.20, has been pierced and this signals scope for weakness towards 4233.00, the May 4 low and a key short-term support. A break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. On the upside the bull trigger is at 4409.50, the Nov 18 2021 high (cont) and a major resistance.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M3) Corrective Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 4288.00 High Aug 19 2022
• RES 3: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and a medium-term bull trigger
• RES 2: 4231.00 High Feb 3
• RES 1: 4227.25 High May 19
• PRICE: 4151.00 @ 08:00 BST May 25
• SUP 1: 4114.00 Low May 24
• SUP 2: 4062.25 Low May 4 and key support
• SUP 3: 4052.50 Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: 4022.75 50.0% retracement of the Mar 13 - May 1 bull leg

S&P E-minis traded low yesterday and this resulted in a test of the 50-day EMA at 4124.40. A clear break of this average would highlight a stronger short-term reversal and open 4062.25, the May 4 low and a key support. Initial key resistance has been defined at 4227.25, the May 19 high. A reversal higher and a breach of this resistance would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started on Mar 13.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N3) Challenging The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $85.08 - High Apr 18
• RES 3: $85.08 - High Apr 18
• RES 2: $82.88 - High Apr 25
• RES 1: $78.66/80.53 - High May 24 / High Apr 28
• PRICE: $78.15 @ 06:59 BST May 25
• SUP 1: $73.49/71.28 - Low May 15 / 4
• SUP 2: $70.10 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 3: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $65.72 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)

Brent futures continues to trade at its recent highs and yesterday’s climb resulted in a test of resistance at the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at $78.55 and a clear break of it would strengthen a short-term bullish theme. This would open $80.53, the Apr 28 high. On the downside, a breach of $73.49, the May 15 low, would instead be a bearish development and set the scene for an extension towards $71.28.

WTI TECHS: (N3) Corrective Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: $80.93 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $79.00 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $76.74 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $74.73 - High May 24
• PRICE: $73.95 @ 07:03 BST May 25
• SUP 1: $69.39/63.90 - Low May 15 / 4
• SUP 2: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)
• SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $57.63 - Low Apr 5 2021 (cont)

WTI futures traded higher yesterday and this resulted in a test of the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $74.41. Short-term gains are considered corrective, however, a clear breach of the 50-day EMA would highlight a stronger bullish theme and expose $76.74, the Apr 28 high. Trend signals still highlight a bear market. Support to watch lies at $69.39, the May 15 low. A break would be bearish.

GOLD TECHS: Approaching Trendline Support

• RES 4: $2075.5 - All-Time High Aug 7 2020
• RES 3: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $2022.6/2063.0 - High May 12 / 4 and key resistance
• RES 1: $1990.8 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $1956.7 07:20 BST May 25
• SUP 1: $1952.0 - Low May 18
• SUP 2: $1934.3 - Low Mar 22
• SUP 3: $1931.4 - Trendline support drawn from the Nov 3 2022
• SUP 4: $1900.0 - Round number support

The bear cycle in Gold remains intact and price is trading closer to its recent lows. The yellow metal last week cleared support at $1975.3, the 50-day EMA and $1969.3, the Apr 19 low. This highlights a stronger bearish threat and opens $1934.3, the Mar 22 low and $1931.4, trendline support drawn from Nov 3 2022. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $2063.0, May 4 high. Initial firm resistance is $2022.6, the May 12 high.

SILVER TECHS: Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $26.135 - High May 5
• RES 1: $24.492 - Apr 25 low and double top mid-point
• PRICE: $23.084 @ 08:17 BST May 25
• SUP 1: $22.761 - Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: $22.284 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally
• SUP 3: $22.157 - Low Mar 21
• SUP 4: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally

Silver bears remain in the driver’s seat. The May 11 sell-off confirmed a double top reversal pattern following the break of $24.492, the Apr 25 low. The subsequent bearish extension has reinforced the importance of this reversal signal. Sights are set on $22.761 next, the Mar 23 low, ahead of 22.284, a Fibonacci retracement level. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at $24.492, the double top mid-point.