MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Equities Eye Fib Projections

Price Signal Summary – Equities Eye Fib Projections

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis registered a fresh all-time high for the contract last week, at 4551.50. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and paves the way for an extension. The focus is on 4591.25, a Fibonacci projection. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher Friday and recently cleared its 50-day EMA. The clear breach of this average and the recent break of a number of resistance points has exposed 4200.50, the Sep 24 high.
• In FX, EURUSD is trading in a range that appears to be a bull flag formation. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this suggests scope for a stronger short-term corrective bounce with attention on the 50-day EMA at 1.1694. GBPUSD is trading near recent highs and the recent pullback appears to be a shallow correction. The rally that started late September remains intact and the recent breach of the 50-day EMA plus last week's extension reinforce bullish conditions.
• On the commodity front, Gold traded sharply higher Friday before finding resistance. The yellow metal probed resistance at $1800.6, Oct 14 high and this highlights a short-term bullish theme and removes recent bearish concerns. Further gains would open $1834.0, the Sep 3 high. WTI trend conditions remain bullish and futures have started the week on a firm note. The focus is on $85.01, a Fibonacci projection.
• In the FI space, trend conditions remain bearish. Bund futures remain in a downtrend but have recovered from recent lows. The break last week of support at 168.21, Oct 12 low marks a resumption of the downtrend and paves the way for weakness towards 167.79 next, a Fibonacci projection. Gilt futures remain bearish and the contract traded to a fresh trend low of 123.43 on Thursday, confirming a resumption of the downtrend.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bull Flag

• RES 4: 1.1821 High Sep 16
• RES 3: 1.1726/55 Bear channel from Jun 1 high / High Sep 22
• RES 2: 1.1694 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.1669 High Oct 19
• PRICE: 1.1660 @ 06:10 BST Oct 25
• SUP 1: 1.1572/24 Low Oct 18 / Low Oct 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1493 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Jan '21 bull phase
• SUP 3: 1.1469 1.236 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1386 Bear channel base drawn from the Jun 1 high

EURUSD is trading in a range that appears to be a bull flag formation. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this suggests scope for a stronger short-term corrective bounce with attention on the 50-day EMA at 1.1694. Note there is a key resistance at 1.1726, the top of a bear channel drawn from the Jun 1 high. Broader trend conditions remain bearish and recent gains are considered corrective. Key support and the bear trigger is 1.1524.

GBPUSD TECHS: Dips Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.3983 High Jul 30
• RES 3: 1.3958 High Aug 4
• RES 2: 1.3913 High Sep 14 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3854 High Sep 15
• PRICE: 1.3781 @ 06:17 BST Oct 25
• SUP 1: 1.3701 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3655 Low Oct 14
• SUP 3: 1.3544 Low Oct 6
• SUP 4: 1.3442/12 2.0% 10-dma env / Low Sep 29 and bear trigger

GBPUSD is trading near recent highs and the recent pullback appears to be a shallow correction. The rally that started late September remains intact and the recent breach of the 50-day EMA plus last week's extension reinforce bullish conditions. Furthermore, price has traded above 1.3795, 76.4% of the Sep 14 -29 downleg. This opens 1.3913, Sep 14 high and a key resistance. On the downside, a firm S/T support is seen at 1.3701, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bearish

• RES 4: 0.8624/58 High Oct 1 / High Sep 29
• RES 3: 0.8522 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.8518 High Oct 12 and a firm resistance
• RES 1: 0.8488 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8460 @ 06:23 BST Oct 25
• SUP 1: 0.8422 Low Oct 21/22
• SUP 2: 0.8375 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8356 Low Feb 26, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.8339 Low Feb 25, 2020

EURGBP is trading above recent lows but remains bearish. Corrections have been shallow and this reinforces current bearish sentiment. Furthermore, moving average conditions remain in a bear mode, highlighting a downtrend. 0.8450, Oct 10 low and a key support has recently been cleared. This opens 0.8375 next, a vol based support. There is also scope for an extension below 0.8400 to open 0.8356, Feb 26, 2020 low. Initial firm resistance is 0.8518.

USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 116.08 1.764 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 price swing
• RES 3: 115.51 High Mar 10, 2017
• RES 2: 114.99 1.50 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 price swing
• RES 1: 114.70/73 High Oct 20 / High Nov 6, 2017
• PRICE: 113.65 @ 06:29 BST Oct 25
• SUP 1: 112.81 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 112.08 High Sep 30 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 111.51 Low Oct 8
• SUP 4: 110.82/80 Low Oct 4 / High Aug 11

USDJPY dips are considered corrective and bullish trend conditions remain intact. A recent key bullish technical development has been the confirmed breach of a long-term trendline (at 113.41) drawn off the Dec 1975 high. The trend higher has accelerated and momentum remains firm. Attention is on 115.51, the Mar 10 2017 high. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 112.08, Sep 30 high and a recent breakout level.

EURJPY TECHS: Path Of Least Resistance Remains Up

• RES 4: 134.40 2.382 proj of the Sep 22 - 29 - Oct 6 price swing
• RES 3: 134.13 High Jun 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 133.76 High Jun 10
• RES 1: 133.48 High Oct 20
• PRICE: 132.45 @ 06:36 BST Oct 25
• SUP 1: 132.81/131.18 Low Oct 15 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 130.75 Sep 3 high
• SUP 3: 130.44 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 129.28 Low Oct 11

EURJPY is off recent highs. Dips though are still considered corrective. Last week's climb confirmed an extension of the upleg that started Oct 6. The cross has also recently cleared 130.75, the Sep 3 high bull trigger and underlying momentum conditions remain bullish. The focus is on 133.76 next, Jun 10 high and 134.13, Jun 1 high. Initial support is at 131.81, Oct 15 low. The 20-day EMA, as support, intersects at 131.18.

AUDUSD TECHS: Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 0.7716 High Jun 16
• RES 3: 0.7630 1.236 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 - Sep 29 price swing
• RES 2: 0.7599 High Jul 6
• RES 1: 0.7546/57 High Oct 21 / 50.0% of the Feb - Aug sell-off
• PRICE: 0.7485 @ 06:44 BST Oct 25
• SUP 1: 0.7454 Low Oct 22
• SUP 2: 0.7379/60 Low Oct 18 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.7288 Low Oct 8
• SUP 4: 0.7226/7170 Low Oct 6 / Low Sep 29

AUDUSD maintains a firmer short-term tone. Last week's gains resulted in a break of 0.7478, the Sep 3 high and an important short-term bull trigger. The breach of this hurdle strengthens a bullish case and confirms a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows - the current bull phase started August 20. This has opened 0.7599 next, the Jul 6 high. Firm support is seen at 0.7360, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Still In A Bear Cycle

• RES 4: 1.2648 High Oct 6
• RES 3: 1.2537 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.2494 Low Sep 3 and a recent breakout level
• RES 1: 1.2410 High Oct 18
• PRICE: 1.2349 @ 06:49 BST Oct 25
• SUP 1: 1.2288 Low Oct 21
• SUP 2: 1.2253 Low Jun 23
• SUP 3: 1.2229 76.4% retracement of the Jun - Aug rally
• SUP 4: 1.2157 Low Jun 16

USDCAD continues to consolidate. The pair however remains in downtrend. A bearish theme follows the recent break of the Jul 30 low of 1.2422 and this has opened 1.2253 next, the Jun 23 low. Note too that moving average conditions remain in a bear mode, reinforcing current trend conditions. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2494, Sep 3 low. A break would ease bearish pressure.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z1) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 171.72 High Sep 23
• RES 3: 170.50 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 170.55 High Oct 4
• RES 1: 169.48/92 High Oct 19 / High Oct 14 and key resistance
• PRICE: 168.57 @ 05:21 BST Oct 25
• SUP 1: 167.79 2.50 proj of the Sep 9 - 17 - 21 price swing
• SUP 2: 167.52 Low Mar 19 2020
• SUP 3: 166.33 Low May 21 2019
• SUP 4: 165.94 Low May 10 2019

Bund futures remain in a downtrend but have recovered from recent lows. The break last week of support at 168.21, Oct 12 low marks a resumption of the downtrend and paves the way for weakness towards 167.79 next, a Fibonacci projection and 167.52, the Mar 19, 2020 low (cont). Moving average signals continue to point south, reinforcing current trend conditions. Key trend resistance is seen at 169.92, the Oct 14 high.

BOBL TECHS: (Z1) Trend Conditions Remain Bearish

• RES 4: 135.200 Low Sep 17, high Oct 4 and recent breakout level
• RES 3: 135.060 High Oct 7
• RES 2: 134.860 High Oct 14 and key resistance
• RES 1: 134.650 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 134.130 @ 05:24 BST Oct 25
• SUP 1: 133.800 Low Feb 26 and a key support
• SUP 2: 133.772 1.236 proj of the Oct 4 - 13 - 14 price swing
• SUP 3: 133.340 Low Mar 19 and key medium-term support
• SUP 4: 133.308 1.764 proj of the Oct 4 - 13 - 14 price swing

Bobl futures remain bearish and the recent bounce is considered corrective. Last week's sell-off confirms a resumption of the underlying downtrend and reinforces bearish conditions. Key short-term trend resistance has been defined at 134.860, Oct 14 high and a breach of this level is required to signal scope for a short-term reversal. With momentum still pointing south, the focus is on 133.772 next, a Fibonacci projection.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z1) Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 112.290 High Sep 20
• RES 3: 112.255 High Sep 23 and Oct 5 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 112.220 High Oct 14
• RES 1: 112.167 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 112.110 @ 05:32 BST Oct 25
• SUP 1: 112.025 2.00 proj of the Sep 20 - 28 - Oct 5 price swing
• SUP 2: 112.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 111.990 Low Aug 14 and 26, 2020 (cont)
• SUP 4: 111.967 2.50 proj of the Sep 20 - 28 - Oct 5 price swing

From a trend perspective, Schatz futures are unchanged and remain in a downtrend although recent price action has been volatile. Fresh lows last week reinforce the downtrend and confirm a resumption of the downtrend that maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 112.025 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial resistance is at 112.167, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (Z1) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 126.84 Low Sep 17
• RES 3: 126.44 High Sep 24
• RES 2: 125.72 High Oct 1
• RES 1: 124.57/125.27 High Oct 19 / High Oct 14 and key resistance
• PRICE: 123.95 @ Close Oct 22
• SUP 1: 123.43 Low Oct 21
• SUP 2: 123.16 Low Feb 27, 2019 (cont)
• SUP 3: 122.75 2.236 proj of the Aug 31 - Sep 17 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 122.15 Low Jan 18, 2019 (cont)

Gilt futures remain bearish and the contract traded to a fresh trend low of 123.43 on Thursday, confirming a resumption of the downtrend. With momentum and moving average conditions still pointing south, further bearish pressure is likely and attention is on 123.16 next, the Feb 27, 2019 low. A break of the 123.00 handle is also likely near-term. Key resistance has been defined at 125.27, the Oct 14 high. A break would signal a S/T reversal.

BTP TECHS: (Z1) Fresh Trend Low

• RES 4: 154.64 High Sep 22 / 23
• RES 3: 153.59 High Sep 24
• RES 2: 152.54/87 High Oct 14 and key resistance / High Oct 1
• RES 1: 151.87 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 150.72 @ Close Oct 22
• SUP 1: 150.38 Low Oct 22
• SUP 2: 150.00/149.97 Round number support / Low Jun 25
• SUP 3: 149.76 0.764 proj of the Sep 23 - Oct 6 - 14 price swing
• SUP 4: 148.77 61.8% retracement of the May - Aug rally (cont)

BTP futures outlook remains bearish and the contract traded lower Friday. A key short-term resistance has been defined at 152.54, Oct 14 high where a break is required to signal a potential short-term base. With trend signals such as momentum and moving average studies still pointing south, the resumption of weakness opens the 150.00 handle next. A break of this level is also seen likely further out.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (Z1) Breaks Out Of Its Recent Range

• RES 4: 4385.00 1.236 proj of Mar 19- Jul 21-Oct 30 2020 swing (cont)
• RES 3: 4290.50 1.00 proj of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 - Oct 6 price swing
• RES 2: 4223.00 High Sep 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4200.50 High Sep 24
• PRICE: 4188.00 @ 06:03 BST Oct 25
• SUP 1: 4106.10 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4004.00 / 3949.50 Low Oct 12 / Low Oct 6 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3902.50 Low Jul 20
• SUP 4: 3882.00 Low Jul 19 and a key support

EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher Friday and broke out of its recent range. The outlook remains bullish. The contract recently cleared its 50-day EMA. The clear breach of this average and the recent break of a number of resistance points has exposed 4200.50, the Sep 24 high. Above this level is the major resistance and bull trigger at 4223.00, Sep 6 high. On the downside, the 50-day EMA, at 4106.20 today, marks initial support.

E-MINI S&P (Z1): Fresh All-Time High

• RES 4: 4650.60 1.236 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - Aug 19 price swing
• RES 1: 4600.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 4591.25 1.00 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - Aug 19 price swing
• RES 1: 4551.50 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4541.75 @ 07:03 BST Oct 25
• SUP 1: 4472.00 High Sep 27 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 4409 06 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4317.25/4260.00 Low Oct 12 / Low Oct 1 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 4243.50 Low Jul 20

S&P E-minis registered a fresh all-time high for the contract last week, at 4551.50. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and paves the way for an extension. The focus is on 4591.25, a Fibonacci projection. Trend signals such as moving average studies remain in a bull mode and this reinforces current trend conditions. A key support is at 4317.25, Oct 12 low. The 50-day EMA at 4414.05 represents an initial firm support handle.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Z1) Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: $90.93 - 2.236 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 3: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $88.74 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 1: $86.55 - 1.764 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• PRICE: $86.22 @ 07:00 BST Oct 25
• SUP 1: $83.36 - Low Oct 21
• SUP 2: $82.20/82.19 - Low Oct 13 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $79.08/78.75 - Low Oct 7 and key support / Low Oct 4
• SUP 4: $76.51/75.42 - Low Sep 30 and key support / High Sep 15

The bull trend in Brent futures remains intact and the contract has started the week on a firm note. Fresh highs once again confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Futures have recently cleared the $80.00 handle, an important psychological hurdle. The focus is on $86.55, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm short-term support is seen at $82.19, the 20-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (Z1) Still Climbing

• RES 4: $88.96 - 1.382 proj of the Sep 21 - Oct 6 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: $87.45 - 1.236 proj of the Sep 21 - Oct 6 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: $86.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $85.01 - 1.00 proj of the Sep 21 - Oct 6 - 7 price swing
• PRICE: $84.51 @ 07:07 BST Oct 25
• SUP 1: $80.78 - Low Oct 20
• SUP 2: $79.18/78.78 - 20-day EMA / Low Oct 13
• SUP 3: $74.67 - Low Oct 7 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: $73.92 - Low Oct 1

WTI trend conditions remain bullish and futures have started the week on a firm note. Fresh trend highs maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, reinforcing the uptrend. Note that the $80.00 psychological hurdle has also recently been cleared, an important break. The focus is on $85.01, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, a firm short-term support has been defined at $80.78, Oct 20 low.

GOLD TECHS: Trades Through Near-Term Resistance

• RES 4: $1863.3 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun - Aug sell-off
• RES 3: $1844.9 - Low Jun 14
• RES 2: $1834.0 - High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $1813.8 - High Oct 14 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $1797.2 @ 07:28 BST Oct 25
• SUP 1: $1777.6/60.4 - 50-day EMA / Low Oct 18
• SUP 2: $1746.0 - Low Oct 6 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $1721.7 - Low Sep 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1717.8 - Low Aug 10

Gold traded sharply higher Friday before finding resistance. The yellow metal probed resistance at $1800.6, Oct 14 high and this highlights a short-term bullish theme and removes recent bearish concerns. Further gains would open $1834.0, the Sep 3 high. On the downside, a key short-term support has been defined at $1760.4, the Oct 18 low. A break would alter the picture and suggest scope for a deeper pullback.

SILVER TECHS: Eyeing Key Resistance

• RES 4: $26.002 - High Aug 4
• RES 3: $25.206 - High Jun 8
• RES 2: $24.867 - High Sep 3 and the reversal trigger
• RES 1: $24.828 - High Oct 22
• PRICE: $24.398 @ 08:00 BST Oct 25
• SUP 1: $23.015 - Low Oct 18
• SUP 2: $22.213 - Low Oct 6
• SUP 3: $21.423 - Low Sep 29 and key support
• SUP 4: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb '21 rally

The current bull cycle in Silver remains intact. The metal has recently cleared both the 20- and 50 day EMAs. An extension of the rally paves the way for $24.867, the Sep 3 high and a key near-term resistance. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen the case for bulls and open the $26.00 handle. Initial firm support to watch is at $23.015, Oct 18 low. A break would threaten the current recovery.