MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Equities Reinforce Bullish S/T Condition

Price Signal Summary – Equities reinforce bullish S/T condition

• S&P E-Minis traded higher once again Friday. The climb reinforces short-term bullish conditions and the extension maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. EUROSTOXX 50 traded higher Friday to confirm a resumption of the current uptrend. The move higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and attention is on resistance at 3840.00, the Jun 6 high.
• EURUSD remains below last week’s 1.0368 high. The pullback highlights - for now - a failure to deliver a clear break of the bear channel resistance, currently at 1.0326. AUDUSD is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Last week’s break of 0.7047, Aug 1 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Jul 14 and sets the scene for an extension. EURJPY remains below last Wednesday’s high of 138.40 and below the 50-day EMA. The recovery from 133.40, Aug 2 low, is likely a correction.
• Gold maintains a firmer tone following last week’s climb above trendline resistance at $1794.6. The trendline is drawn from the Mar 8 high and the break represents an important technical breach plus highlights a stronger reversal of the 5-month downtrend. WTI futures traded higher late last week and cleared $92.65, the Aug 9 high. The 20-day EMA has also been pierced and this does suggest scope for a stronger near-term bounce, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at $97.74.
• Bund futures traded lower again Friday. The current retracement is still considered corrective and the short-term trend direction remains up. Moving average studies are in a bull mode condition and the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows is intact. Gilt futures traded lower again Friday. Last week’s extension lower has resulted in a break of trendline support drawn from the Jun 16 low. The current pullback is still considered corrective and the trend outlook remains bullish.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trading Below Last Week’s High

• RES 4: 1.0536 High Jun 29
• RES 3: 1.0488 High Jun 30
• RES 2: 1.0449 High Jul 5
• RES 1: 1.0326/68 Channel top from Feb 10 high / High Aug 10
• PRICE: 1.0251 @ 06:13 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: 1.0202/0123 Low Aug 10 / 3
• SUP 2: 1.0097 Low Jul 27 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 1.0007/0.9952 Low Jul 15 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.9944 1.618 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing

EURUSD remains below last week’s 1.0368 high. The pullback highlights - for now - a failure to deliver a clear break of the bear channel resistance, currently at 1.0326. The channel is drawn from the Feb 10 high and remains a key resistance. A clear breach would highlight a more significant bullish reversal. A deeper pullback though would bearish and signal a reversal lower inside the channel. Watch support at 1.0123, Aug 3 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Directional Triggers Defined

• RES 4: 1.2518 High Jun 6
• RES 3: 1.2406 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2332 High Jun 27
• RES 1: 1.2293 High Aug 01
• PRICE: 1.2114 @ 06:22 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: 1.2004 Low Aug 5
• SUP 2: 1.1961 Low Jul 25
• SUP 3: 1.1890/1760 Low Jul 21 / Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.1673 1.00 proj of the May 27 - Jun 14 - 16 price swing

GBPUSD traded lower Friday to finish the week broadly flat. Recent price action highlights two important short-term directional triggers; resistance at 1.2293, the Aug 1 high and support at 1.2004, the Aug 5 low. The outlook is bullish and a break of 1.2293 would highlight a resumption of the bull cycle and open 1.2406, the Jun 16 high. For bears, a break of support at 1.2004 would instead expose 1.1890, the Jul 21 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 0.8627 High Jul 4
• RES 3: 0.8585 High Jul 21 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8525 High Jul 25
• RES 1: 0.8493 High Aug 12
• PRICE: 0.8459 @ 06:28 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: 0.8410/8340 Low Aug 8 / 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8313 Low Apr 22
• SUP 3: 0.8246 2.0% 10-dma envelope and low Apr 14
• SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 and a key support

EURGBP is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The broader outlook is bearish though and the recent move higher is considered corrective. Price action since mid-June has established a sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear mode set-up too. A resumption of weakness would open 0.8313, the Apr 22 low. The cross has pierced the 50-day EMA, Friday’s high of 0.8493 is first resistance.

USDJPY TECHS: Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 137.27 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Aug 2 downleg
• RES 3: 136.58 High Jul 28
• RES 2: 135.96 61.8% retracement of the Jul 14 - Aug 2 downleg
• RES 1: 134.02/35.58 50-day EMA / High Aug 8
• PRICE: 133.24 @ 06:38 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: 131.74 Low Aug 11
• SUP 2: 130.41/130.00 Low Aug 2 / Round number support
• SUP 3: 129.51 Low Jun 2
• SUP 4: 128.64 Low Jun 1

USDJPY firm resistance has been defined at 135.58, the Aug 8 high. The sell-off on Aug 10 highlights a reversal of the recent correction between Aug 2 - 8. A bearish theme remains in place following the Jul 28 bull channel breakout. The channel is drawn from the Mar 4 low and the break confirmed a bear condition. A deeper pullback would open 130.41, the Aug 2 low and the bear trigger.

EURJPY TECHS: Remains Below The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 140.36 Trendline drawn from the Jun 28 high
• RES 3: 140.07 High Jul 25
• RES 2: 139.41 High Jul 28
• RES 1: 138.34/ 50-day EMA / High Aug 10
• PRICE: 136.46 @ 06:46 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: 135.81 Low Aug 5
• SUP 2: 134.84/133.40 Low Aug 3 / 2 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 132.66 Low May 12 and a key support
• SUP 4: 131.99 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - Jun 28 bull leg

EURJPY remains below last Wednesday’s high of 138.40 and below the 50-day EMA. The recovery from 133.40, Aug 2 low, is likely a correction. Moving average studies still highlight a downtrend and the 50-day EMA, at 138.34, marks a firm resistance. A deeper pullback would refocus attention on the 133.40 bear trigger. For bulls, clearance of the 50-day EMA would instead suggest scope for a stronger recovery.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Conditions

• RES 4: 0.7283 High Jun 3 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.7246 High Jun 7
• RES 2: 0.7188 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 1: 0.7141 76.4% retracement of the Jun 3 - Jul 14 downleg
• PRICE: 0.7084 @ 06:53 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: 0.6980/6870 20-day EMA / Low Aug 5 and a key support
• SUP 2: 0.6786 Low Jul 18
• SUP 3: 0.6682 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing

AUDUSD is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Last week’s break of 0.7047, Aug 1 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Jul 14 and sets the scene for an extension. The break has also established a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart and has opened 0.7141, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support to watch is at 0.6870, Aug 5 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Monitoring The 200-DMA

• RES 4: 1.3224 High Jul 14 and key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3135 High Jul 15
• RES 2: 1.3014/38 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band / High Jul 18
• RES 1: 1.2855/2985 20-day EMA / High Aug 5
• PRICE: 1.2806 @ 08:05 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: 1.2745 200-dma
• SUP 2: 1.2728 Low Aug 11
• SUP 3: 1.2685 76.4% retracement of the Jun 8 - Jul 14 upleg
• SUP 4: 1.2587 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD traded lower last week and breached support at 1.2767, the Aug 1 low. This confirmed an extension of the current bear leg. Attention is on 1.2745, the 200-dma. The average has been pierced, a clear break would strengthen bearish conditions and open 1.2685, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, a breach of 1.2985, the Aug 5 high is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Retracement still Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 161.38 2.00 projection of the Jun 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 160.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 159.79 High Apr 4 (cont)
• RES 1: 158.33/159.70 High Aug 3 / 2 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 155.70 @ 05:05 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: 154.75 Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: 153.65 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 149.69 Low Jul 21 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 148.24 Low Jul 1

Bund futures traded lower again Friday. The current retracement is still considered corrective and the short-term trend direction remains up. Moving average studies are in a bull mode condition and the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows is intact. A resumption of gains would open 159.79, Apr 4 high (cont). Key trend support has been defined at 149.69, Jul 21 low. A break is required to signal a potential top. Initial support is 154.75.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 129.950 2.00 projection of the Jun 16 -24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 129.001 1.764 projection of the Jun 16 -24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 128.060/128.760 High Aug 3 / 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 127.580 High Aug 10
• PRICE: 126.720 @ 05:11 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: 126.450 Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: 126.027 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 125.150 Low Jul 22
• SUP 4: 124.030 Low Jul 21 and a reversal trigger

Bobl futures continue to trade at their recent lows.The short-term trend is up and the move lower since Aug 2 is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull mode and the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows is intact. A resumption of gains would open 129.001 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is 124.030, the Jul 21 low. Initial firm support is 126.450, Jul 28 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Remains Below The Early August Highs

• RES 4: 110.855 High Apr 4 (cont)
• RES 3: 110.500 High May 26 (cont)
• RES 2: 110.412 1.50 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 110.100/380 High Aug 3 / Aug 2 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 109.705 @ 05:16 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: 109.670 Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: 109.624 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 109.350 Low Jul 22
• SUP 4: 108.950 Low Jul 21 and a key support

Schatz futures remain below recent highs. The retracement from the Aug 2 high is likely a correction and short-term trend conditions still appear bullish. A fresh high on Aug 2, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 110.412 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is unchanged at 108.950, Jul 21 low. Initial firm support is at 109.670, the Jul 28 low.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Has Breached Trendline Support

• RES 4: 121.07 High May 12 (cont)
• RES 3: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 118.88/119.84 High Aug 4 / 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 116.90/118.10 20-day EMA / High Aug 10
• PRICE: 115.97 @ Close Aug 12
• SUP 1: 115.71 Low Aug 12
• SUP 2: 114.86 50.0% retracement of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 upleg
• SUP 3: 114.08 Low Jul 8 and a key support
• SUP 4: 113.69 61.8% retracement of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 upleg

Gilt futures traded lower again Friday. Last week’s extension lower has resulted in a break of trendline support drawn from the Jun 16 low. The current pullback is still considered corrective and the trend outlook remains bullish. An extension lower though would expose 114.86 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial resistance has been defined at 118.10, the Aug 10 high. A break would highlight a bullish reversal.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Bull Flag

• RES 4: 131.61 High Apr 29 (cont)
• RES 3: 131.24 High May 12 (cont)
• RES 2: 130.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 129.36 High Aug 11
• PRICE: 127.29 @ Close Aug 12
• SUP 1: 126.83/125.45 Low Aug 3 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 122.81 Low Jul 28
• SUP 3: 119.57 Low Jul 21 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 118.60 Low Jun 22

The BTP futures traded lower Friday but price remains inside the current range that appears to be a bull flag formation. The trend direction remains up. The break on Jul 29 of key resistance at 126.41, Jul 1 high, established a broader bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows - the definition of an uptrend. Attention is on the 130.00 handle next. Initial firm support lies at 125.45, the 50-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: 3902.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 3855.00 High Apr 21
• RES 2: 3840.00 High Jun 6 and key resistance
• RES 1: 3806.00 High Jun 8
• PRICE: 3750.00 @ 05:35 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 3691.00 Low Aug 10
• SUP 2: 3625.00/3553.00 50-day EMA / Low Jul 26
• SUP 3: 3467.00 Low Jul 18 / 19
• SUP 4: 3343.00 Low Jul 5 and the bear trigger

EUROSTOXX 50 traded higher Friday to confirm a resumption of the current uptrend. The move higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and attention is on resistance at 3840.00, the Jun 6 high. A break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions. On the downside, key support is seen at the 50-day EMA which intersects at 3625.00. A break would signal a possible reversal.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Heading North

• RES 4: 4400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 4345.75 2.00 proj of the Jun 17 - 28 - Jul 14 price swing
• RES 2: 4306.50 High May 4
• RES 1: 4282.75 High Aug 12
• PRICE: 4270.75 @ 06:53 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: 4202.75/080.50 Low Aug 2
• SUP 2: 4023.83/3913.25 50-day EMA / Low Jul 26 and a key support
• SUP 3: 3820.25 Low Jul 18
• SUP 4: 3723.75 Low Jul 14

S&P E-Minis traded higher once again Friday. The climb reinforces short-term bullish conditions and the extension maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 4306.50 next, the May 4 high and potentially the 4400.00 further out. On the downside, initial firm support is at 4080.50, the Aug 2 low. The 50-day EMA intersects at 4033.90 - a key support.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V2) Key Support Still Intact

• RES 4: $112.92 - High Jun 29
• RES 3: $110.72 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $106.50 - High Jul 29 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $101.57 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $97.09 @ 07:00 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: $92.78 - Low Aug 5
• SUP 2: $91.22 - Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $90.00 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $88.31 - Low Mar 9 and a key support

Brent futures traded higher late last week and breached the 20-day EMA. This signals scope for a stronger short-term recovery near-term, potentially towards the 50-day EMA at $101.57. On the downside, futures have pulled away from Friday’s session high. A deeper retracement would expose support at $92.78, Aug 5 low and the key support at $91.22, Jul 14 low. A break of $91.22 would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

WTI TECHS: (U2) Pulls Back From Last Week’s High

• RES 4: $111.14 - High Jun 29
• RES 3: $108.28 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $101.88 - High Jul 29 and key resistance
• RES 1: $95.05/97.74 - High Aug 10 / 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: $91.08 @ 07:08 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: $87.01 - Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $85.37 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: $83.51 - 1.50 projection of the Jun 8 - 22 - 29 price swing
• SUP 4: $81.34 - 1.618 projection of the Jun 8 - 22 - 29 price swing

WTI futures traded higher late last week and cleared $92.65, the Aug 9 high. The 20-day EMA has also been pierced and this does suggest scope for a stronger near-term bounce, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at $97.74. Price has pulled back from last week’s high. A stronger reversal would expose the bear trigger at $87.01, the Aug 5 low. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle.

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: $1875 7 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar 8 - Jul 21 bear leg
• RES 3: $1857.6 - High Jun 16
• RES 2: $1829.8 - 38.2% retracement of the Mar 8 - Jul 21 bear leg
• RES 1: $1807.9 - High Aug 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1792.6 @ 07:23 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: $1771.2/54.4 - 20-day EMA / Low Aug 3 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: $1711.7/1681.0 - Low Jul 27
• SUP 3: $1681.0 - Low Jul 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 2021

Gold maintains a firmer tone following last week’s climb above trendline resistance at $1794.6. The trendline is drawn from the Mar 8 high and the break represents an important technical breach plus highlights a stronger reversal of the 5-month downtrend. However, price has pulled back recent highs and any stronger reversal would threaten the bullish theme. Watch support at $1754.4 Aug 3 low. The bull trigger is $1807.9, Aug 10 high.

SILVER TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains Intact

• RES 4: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 3: $21.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 1: $20.876 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $20.576 @ 08:08 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: $19.551/062 - Low Aug 5 / Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: $18.146/18.000 - Low Jul 14 / Round number support
• SUP 3: $17.312 - 3.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 4: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020

Silver remains bullish. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of resistance at $20.508, the Aug 2 high. This confirmed a resumption of the bull leg that started Jul 14 and the metal has established a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. The focus is on $21.540, Jun 27 high. On the downside, initial key support has been defined at $19.551, the Aug 5 low.