MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Equity Bullish Sentiment Intact

Price Signal Summary - Equity Bullish Sentiment Intact

In the equity space:

• S&P E-minis needle continues to point north. The contract traded to highs just above 4100.00 last week. The next objective is 4124.75, 1.382 projection of the Feb 1 - Feb 16 - Mar 4 price swing.
• EUROSTOXX 50 consolidating but maintains a bullish tone with the focus on 4000.00. A break would open 4047.72, 2.236 projection of the Dec 21 - Jan 8 - Jan 28 price swing.

In the FX world, EURUSD maintains a short-term bullish tone despite pulling back from recent highs. The focus is on 1.1939, the 50-day EMA and a key resistance area. A clear break is required to suggest scope for an extension higher. The GBPUSD outlook remains bearish despite this morning's gains. Last week, the pair stalled at the former bull channel base drawn off the Nov 2 low. Resistance has been defined at 1.3919, Apr 6 high. The key support to watch and bear trigger is 1.3670, Mar 25 low. A brief test of this support this morning failed to result in a clear break. EURGBP remains bullish. The price pattern on Apr 6 was a bullish engulfing candle. This exposed the next key resistance zone at 0.8646, Mar 24 high and S/T reversal trigger and 0.8653, 50-day EMA. Both have been breached and this opens 0.8731, Feb 26 high. USDJPY traded lower late last week as the corrective cycle extends. Support at 109.35, the 20-day EMA has been probed. A clear break would open 109.13, Mar 26 low.

On the commodity front:

• Gold is holding onto recent gains. Key resistance at $1755.5, Mar 18 high has been probed. The yellow metal also needs to clear $1759.8, the 50-day EMA to suggest scope for a stronger bounce.
• Brent (M1) key directional triggers are unchanged with:
• Resistance at $65.39, Mar 29 high and key support at $60.33, Mar 23 low and the bear trigger.
• WTI (K1) directional triggers are:
• Resistance at $62.27, Mar 30 high and support at $57.25, Mar 23 low and the bear trigger

In the FI space, Bunds (M1) remain vulnerable despite recent gains. Key support to watch is at 170.52, Mar 18 low. Key resistance remains 172.66, Mar 25 high. The key support and bear trigger in Gilts (M1) is unchanged at 126.79, Mar 18 low. Recent price action in BTP futures have defined resistance at 150.39, Mar 11 high and support at 148.36, Mar 18 low as key short-term directional triggers.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Focus Is On The 50-day EMA

• RES 4: 1.2048 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.1990 High Mar 11 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.1939 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.1927 High Apr 8
• PRICE: 1.1889 @ 05:50 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 1.1861 Low Apr 8
• SUP 2: 1.1795 Low Apr 6
• SUP 3: 1.1738 Low Apr 5
• SUP 4: 1.1704/1695 Low Mar 31 / 38.2% of the Mar 2020 - Jan rally

EURUSD traded higher last week and is trading closer to recent highs. The pair is once again trading within its bear channel range drawn off this year's Jan 6 high - the channel base was breached in March. Gains are still considered corrective though with the next firm resistance at 1.1939, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would be bullish and signal scope for an extension higher. Initial support is 1.1861, Apr 8 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.3959 High Mar 19
• RES 3: 1.3953 50% Retracement Feb - Mar Downleg
• RES 2: 1.3919/49 High Apr 6 / Former channel bull channel base
• RES 1: 1.3840 High Apr 7
• PRICE: 1.3683 @ 05:55 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 1.3671 Low Apr 9
• SUP 2: 1.3670/63 Low Mar 25 / Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: 1.3641 38.2% retracement of the Sep 23 - Feb 24 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Feb 4

GBPUSD maintains a softer tone. The pair found resistance last week at 1.3919, on Apr 6. The failure at that high highlights the importance of resistance relating to the former bull channel drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low - the channel base was cleared Mar 23. The base intersects at 1.3949 and a strong break through this resistance is required to strengthen a bullish argument. Attention is on key support and the bear trigger at 1.3670, Mar 25 low. A break would open 1.3641, a Fibonacci retracement.

EURGBP TECHS: Needles Still Points North

• RES 4: 0.8791 High Feb 12
• RES 3: 0.8731/40 High Feb 26 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8705 High Mar 1
• RES 1: 0.8698 High Apr 9
• PRICE: 0.8692 @ 06:04 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 0.8582 Low Apr 7
• SUP 2: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8430/19 Low Feb 27, 2020 / 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 4: 0.8356 Low Feb 26

A bullish short-term EURGBP outlook remains intact. The cross traded higher last week following a bullish engulfing reversal pattern on Mar 6. Recent gains have seen prices top the key resistance at 0.8646, Mar 24 high and the 50-day EMA at 0.8655. Further gains would open 0.8731, Feb 26 high where a break would further strengthen the current bullish cycle.On the downside, initial support is at 0.8582, Apr 7 low.

USDJPY TECHS: 20-Day EMA Under Pressure

• RES 4: 111.71 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 111.30 High Mar 26, 2020
• RES 2: 110.55/97 High Apr 6 / High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 109.94 High Apr 7
• PRICE: 109.57 @ 06:10 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 109.00 Low Apr 8
• SUP 2: 108.41 Low Mar 23 and key support
• SUP 3: 107.94 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 106.97 Low Mar 4

USDJPY traded lower last week and still appears vulnerable following the pullback from the Mar 31 high. The pair last week breached support highlighted by the 20-day EMA, at 109.38 today. A move back below the average would suggest scope for a deeper pullback towards the 109.00 handle and 108.41, Mar 23 low. The current pullback is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. Initial resistance 109.96, Apr 9 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Consolidating Near Resistance

• RES 4: 132.36 1.382 proj of the Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 3: 131.58 High Oct 4, 2018
• RES 2: 131.22 1.236 proj of the Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 1: 130.69 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 130.19 @ 06:30 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 129.57/13 Low Apr 8 / Low Mar 30
• SUP 2: 128.83/81 50-day EMA / Trendline drawn off Oct 30, 2020 low
• SUP 3: 127.50 Low Feb 22
• SUP 4: 127.31 Low Feb 17

EURJPY is consolidating. The cross traded below 130.00 last week but did manage to find support at 129.57. The cross also tested the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the average would suggest scope for a deeper pullback and expose support around the 50-day EMA at 128.83 and trendline support at 128.81, drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low. Clearance of this zone would signal a reversal. The trigger for a resumption of the uptrend is 130.69, Apr 7 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 0.7849 High Mar 18 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.7774 High Mar 19
• RES 2: 0.7750 High Mar 23
• RES 1: 0.7670/78 trendline drawn off the Feb 25 high / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.7600 @ 06:39 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 0.7588 Low Apr 9
• SUP 2: 0.7532/17 Low Apr 1 and the bear trigger / Low Dec 22
• SUP 3: 0.7462 Low Dec 21
• SUP 4: 0.7418 23.6% retracement of the Mar 2020 - Feb rally

AUDUSD is weaker but remains within the recent range and above recent lows. Key support is at 0.7532, Apr 1 low and the outlook remains bearish. The pair has recently breached 0.7563, Mar 25 low and the Feb 2 low of 0.7564. This reinforces a bearish theme following the confirmation of a head and shoulders reversal pattern on Mar 23. The focus is on 0.7517, Dec 22 low. Initial resistance is seen at 0.7680, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Focus Is On Resistance

• RES 4: 1.2763 High Feb 12
• RES 3: 1.2749 High Feb 26 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2700 High Mar 8
• RES 1: 1.2647 High Mar 30 and the short-term bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2565 @ 06:41 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 1.2502 Low Apr 5 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: 1.2462 Low Mar 19
• SUP 3: 1.2365 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.2336 1.00 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 25 - Feb 26 price swing

The USDCAD outlook remains bullish following the recent recovery from 1.2502, Apr 5 low. Short-term trend signals continue to point north and attention is on resistance at 1.2647, Mar 30 high and the bull trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the recovery that started Mar 18 and would open 1.2749, Feb 26 high. Key near-term support is 1.2502. Clearance of this level would instead signal the resumption of bearish activity.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M1) Defines Resistance At 172.12

• RES 4: 172.78 0.764 proj of the Feb 25 - Mar 11 - Mar 18 price swing
• RES 3: 172.66 High Mar 25
• RES 2: 172.34 High Mar 29
• RES 1: 172.12 High Apr 8
• PRICE: 171.45 @ 04:57 BSBST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 171.15 Low Apr 9
• SUP 2: 170.71/52 Low Mar 30 / Low Mar 18 and key support
• SUP 3: 170.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 169.24 Low Feb 24 and major support

Bund futures sold off sharply Friday with initial resistance defined at 172.12, Apr 8 high. A bearish focus remains intact with attention on key S/T support at 170.52, Mar 18 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish argument and signal scope for a deeper sell-off. The move lower from 172.66, Mar 25 low suggests the recovery between Feb 25 - Mar 25 has been a correction and that this correction is possibly over. Bearish!

BOBL TECHS: (M1) Eyeing Support

• RES 4: 135.544 0.764 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 3 - Mar 9 price swing
• RES 3: 135.520 High Mar 25
• RES 2: 135.440 High Mar 29
• RES 1: 135.350 High Apr 8
• PRICE: 135.090 @ 05:05 BSBST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 135.010 Low Apr 9
• SUP 2: 134.940/870 Low Mar 30 / Low Mar 19 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 134.780 Low Mar 8 and 9
• SUP 4: 134.670 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally

Bobl futures maintain a bearish focus and recent gains are still considered corrective in nature. Friday's sell-off refocuses attention on support at 134.870, Mar 18 low where a break would strengthen a bearish argument and suggest scope for a deeper pullback. This would open 134.780, the Mar 8 and 9 lows and potentially below. For bulls, key resistance has been defined at 135.520, Mar 25 high. Initial resistance is at 135.350.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M1) Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 112.174 0.618 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 2 - Mar 10 price swing
• RES 3: 112.172 50-day EMA (cont)
• RES 2: 112.165 High Mar 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 112.150 High Apr 8
• PRICE: 112.115 @ 05:14 BSBST Apr 9
• SUP 1: 112.100 Low Apr 9
• SUP 2: 112.070 Low Mar 18 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 112.060 Low Mar 10
• SUP 4: 112.026 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally

Schatz futures sold off Friday with initial resistance defined at 112.150, Mar 25 high. The contract also remains below key resistance at 112.165, Mar 25 high. Recent gains are considered corrective and a bearish focus remains intact. A move lower would expose support at 112.070, Mar 18 low where a break would strengthen a bearish argument and open 112.060, Mar 10 low and potentially below. Clearance of 112.165 would reinstate a bullish theme.

GILT TECHS: (M1) Trading Closer To Recent Highs

• RES 4: 129.75 High Feb 19
• RES 3: 129.27 High Mar 2 and the reversal trigger
• RES 2: 128.93 High Mar 25
• RES 1: 128.66 High Apr 8
• PRICE: 128.24 @ Close Apr 9
• SUP 1: 127.32 Low Apr 1
• SUP 2: 126.79 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 126.55 Low Apr 17, 2019 (cont)
• SUP 4: 126.00 Round number support

Gilt futures are trading closer to recent highs. Despite last week's gains, the downtrend remains intact. Attention is on key support at 126.79, Mar 18 low and the trigger for a resumption of the trend. Clearance of this level would pave the way for a test of the 126.00 handle. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at 128.93, Mar 25 high. A break of this level would expose the key hurdle for bulls at 129.27, Mar 2 high.

BTP TECHS: (M1) Tests Key Support

• RES 4: 150.69 76.4% retracement of the Feb 12 - 26 sell-off
• RES 3: 150.39 High Mar 11 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 149.88 High Apr 6
• RES 1: 149.47 High Apr 8
• PRICE: 148.51 @ Close Apr 9
• SUP 1: 148.32 Low Apr 9
• SUP 2: 148.20 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 11 rally
• SUP 3: 147.68 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 11 rally
• SUP 4: 147.56 Low Mar 5

Recent price action in BTP futures have defined resistance at 150.39, Mar 11 high and support at 148.36, Mar 18 low as key short-term directional triggers. A bearish theme continues to dominate though and Friday's sell-off resulted in a test of 148.36. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish argument and open 147.56, Mar 5 low. Initial resistance is at 149.47, Apr 8 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 Techs: Approaching The 4000 Handle

• RES 4: 4110.24 High Jan 18, 2008
• RES 3: 4047.72 2.236 proj of Dec 21 - Jan 8 rally from Jan 28 low
• RES 2: 4000.00 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 3988.10 High Apr 7
• PRICE: 3977.83 @ Close Apr 8
• SUP 1: 3950.18 Low Apr 6
• SUP 2: 3910.90 Low Mar 31
• SUP 3: 3884.19 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 3841.46 Low Mar 26

EUROSTOXX 50 remains bullish. The index registered a fresh trend high on Apr 6 of 3988.10. The recovery from 3784.09, Mar 25 low, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend, extending the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Attention is on the psychological 4000.00 handle next. On the downside, key trend support is at 3784.09. A break is required to signal a potential short-term top. Bullish!

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M1) Trading Sideways

• RES 4: $70.67 - High Mar 8 and the key bull trigger
• RES 3: $69.50 - High Mar 15
• RES 2: $67.76 - High Mar 18
• RES 1: $65.39 - High Mar 29 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $62.78 @ 06:39 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: $61.25 - Low Apr 5
• SUP 2: $60.33 - Low Mar 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $58.27 - 38.2% retracement of the Nov 2 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 4: $56.80 - High Jan 13

Brent crude futures are unchanged and continue to consolidate with price remaining below recent highs. The Mar 30 break higher through $64.97, Mar 22 high failed to deliver any bullish follow through despite signalling scope for a recovery. Price would need to trade above $65.39, Mar 30 high to again suggest scope for an extension higher. This would open $67.76, Mar 18 high. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger is at $60.33, low Mar 23.

WTI TECHS: (K1) Bearish Focus

• RES 4: $67.79 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $66.44 - High Mar 15
• RES 2: $64.88 - High Mar 18 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: $62.27 - High Mar 30
• PRICE: $59.16 @ 06:46 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: $57.63 - Low Apr 5
• SUP 2: $57.25 - Low Mar 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $55.65 - 38.2% retracement of the Nov 2 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 4: $53.68 - High Jan 13

WTI futures are unchanged and the contract is consolidating. The Mar 30 break above resistance at $62.04, Mar 22 high, failed to deliver any bullish follow through despite signalling scope for a recovery. Price needs to clear $62.27, Mar 30 high to once again suggest scope for gains. This would open $64.88, Mar 18 high. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at $57.25, Mar 23 low. A break would resume bearish pressure.

GOLD TECHS: 50-day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: $1816.0 - High Feb 23
• RES 3: $1805.7 - High Feb 25
• RES 2: $1775.9 - High Feb 26
• RES 1: $1759.2 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1738.3 @ 07:00 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: $1721.4 - Low Apr 5
• SUP 2: $1705.9 - Low Apr 1
• SUP 3: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1671.0 - Low Jun 5, 2020

Gold traded higher last week extending the recovery from $1678.0, Mar 31 low. The yellow metal has probed $1755.5, Mar 18 high and attention is on the 50-day EMA at $1759.2. A clear break of the $1755.5-59.2 zone is required to signal scope for a stronger recovery and place the recent bearish focus on hold. This would open $1805.7, the Feb 25 high. Key support and the bear trigger remains $1676.9, Mar 8 low. Initial firm support is at $1721.4.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Gains

• RES 4: $26.636 - High Mar 18 and firm near-term resistance
• RES 3: $26.318 - High Mar 19
• RES 2: $25.670 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $25.617 - High Apr 8
• PRICE: $25.106 @ 07:06 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: $24.617 - Low Apr 5
• SUP 2: $23.781 - Low Mar 31
• SUP 3: $23.524 - Low Dec 7 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: $22.591 - Low Dec 12

Silver is holding onto the bulk of recent gains following the recovery from $23.781, Mar 31 high. Despite these recent gains, the outlook remains bearish and upticks are considered corrective. Recent weakness has opened $23.524, Dec 7 low and a key near-term support. On the upside, the 20-day EMA has been probed. An extension higher would expose $25.670, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of the average would instead be bullish.