MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Equity Condition Remains Bearish

Price Signal Summary – Equity Condition Remains Bearish

• In the equity space, E-Mini S&P technical conditions remain bearish and the contract traded lower Tuesday. The moving average set-up continues to suggest that the broader path of least resistance remains down. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded to a fresh 2022 low Tuesday, breaching former support at 3990.50, the Jan 24 low. The break lower confirms a resumption of the broader bear cycle that started on Nov 18 last year.
• In FX, EURUSD continues to consolidate. The pair remains above 1.1280, the Feb 14 low and below the Feb 16 high of 1.1396. These two levels are seen as important short-term directional triggers. GBPUSD traded in a somewhat volatile manner yesterday. The outlook is unchanged and remains bullish - price remains above support at 1.3487 and moving average studies point north. USDJPY recovered off its lows Tuesday. This keeps prices on either side of the 50-day EMA at 114.76. A clear break below this average would signal scope for a deeper pullback with the next firm support at 114.16, the Feb 2 low.
• On the commodity front, Gold remains in an uptrend following the recent strong impulsive rally and is trading near its recent highs. Price is approaching the medium-term upside target of $1916.6, the Jun 1 2021 high and a key bull trigger. WTI futures traded higher Tuesday, clearing resistance at $93.83, the Feb 14 high. This confirms a resumption of the underlying uptrend and extends the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• In the FI space, Bund futures failed to hold onto yesterday’s highs but have remained above the recent 164.34 low on Feb 16. Short-term gains are still deemed corrective with the broader trend signals pointing south. Gilt futures traded lower Tuesday. The medium-term trend condition remains down and recent gains are likely part of a correction.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Directional Triggers Defined

• RES 4: 1.1692 High Oct 28, 2021
• RES 3: 1.1608 High Nov 9, 2021
• RES 2: 1.1558 38.2% retracement of the May ‘21 - Jan 28 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.1396/1.1495 High Feb 16 / High Feb 10
• PRICE: 1.1339 @ 06:13 GMT Feb 23
• SUP 1: 1.1280 Low Feb 14
• SUP 2: 1.1265 Low Feb 3
• SUP 3: 1.1209 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Feb 10 rally
• SUP 4: 1.1121 Low Jan 28 and the bear trigger

EURUSD continues to consolidate. The pair remains above 1.1280, the Feb 14 low and below the Feb 16 high of 1.1396. These two levels are seen as important short-term directional triggers. A bullish theme still dominates however and a breach of 1.1396 would improve the outlook for bulls and expose 1.1495, the Feb 10 high. Sub 1.1280 levels though would instead suggest scope for a deeper retracement of the Jan 28 - Feb 10 upleg.

GBPUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.3835 High Oct 20
• RES 3: 1.3684/49 200-dma / High Jan 13 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3662 High Jan 20
• RES 1: 1.3643/44 High Feb 18 / 10
• PRICE: 1.3595 @ 06:18 GMT Feb 23
• SUP 1: 1.3539/3487 Low Feb 22 / Low Feb 15
• SUP 2: 1.3435 Low Feb 1
• SUP 3: 1.3358 Low Jan 27 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.3301 76.4% retracement of the Dec 8 - Jan 13 bull phase

GBPUSD traded in a somewhat volatile manner yesterday. The outlook is unchanged and remains bullish - price remains above support at 1.3487 and moving average studies point north. The focus is on 1.3662 next, Jan 20 high where a break would improve the bullish theme and expose 1.3749, the Jan 13 high and key resistance. On the downside, a breach of 1.3487 would instead threaten the current bull theme and open 1.3358, Jan 27 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: 0.8512 High Dec 22
• RES 3: 0.8480 61.8% retracement of the Dec 8 - Feb 3 downleg
• RES 2: 0.8432/78 High Feb 11 / High Feb 7
• RES 1: 0.8383/8403 High Feb 22 / High Feb 16
• PRICE: 0.8333 @ 06:25 GMT Feb 23
• SUP 1: 0.8311/8285 Low Feb 22 / Feb 3 and key support
• SUP 2: 0.8282/77 Low Feb’20 / Dec’19 and key bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8242 50% Fibonacci Retracement 2015-2020 Upleg
• SUP 4: 0.8238 0.764 proj of the Dec 8 - Feb 3 - 7 Price swing

EURGBP reversed a mid-session rally Tuesday ahead of the close, keeping the cross in close proximity to its recent lows. Recent price action though has kept key support at 0.8285 intact, Feb 3 low, and if prices can hold above this level, it would suggest the recent move lower has been a correction. The next resistance to watch is at 0.8403, the Feb 16 high. Initial support is at Tuesday’s 0.8311.

USDJPY TECHS: Finds Support Below The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 118.07 2.236 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 2021 price swing
• RES 3: 117.08 2.00 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 2021 price swing
• RES 2: 116.34/35 High Feb 10 / High Jan 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 115.87 High Feb 15
• PRICE: 115.05 @ 06:31 GMT Feb 23
• SUP 1: 114.50 Low Feb 22
• SUP 2: 114.16 Low Feb 02
• SUP 3: 113.47 Low Jan 24 and key support
• SUP 4: 113.14 Low Dec 17

USDJPY recovered off its lows Tuesday. This keeps prices on either side of the 50-day EMA at 114.76. A clear break below this average would signal scope for a deeper pullback with the next firm support at 114.16, the Feb 2 low. Moving average studies highlight a bullish theme and a resumption of strength would refocus attention on the 116.34/35 key resistance and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the medium-term uptrend.

EURJPY TECHS: Finds Support At Tuesday’s Low

• RES 4: 134.21 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 3: 133.48/96 High Oct 20 and key resistance / 2.0% 10-dma env
• RES 2: 133.15 High Feb 10 and key resistance
• RES 1: 130.90/131.91 High Feb 21 / High Feb 16
• PRICE: 130.32 @ 06:38 GMT Feb 23
• SUP 1: 129.41/36 76.4% of the Jan 25 - Feb 10 rally / Intraday low
• SUP 2: 129.19 Low Feb 3
• SUP 3: 128.25 Low Jan 25 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 127.52 Low Dec 20

EURJPY found support Tuesday at 129.36, just below 129.41, a Fibonacci retracement, reinforcing the importance of this area as a support. An extension lower would leave the 129.00 handle exposed and open 128.25, the Jan 25 low. For bulls, a stronger reversal higher would suggest the corrective pullback is over and signal scope for a climb towards resistance at 131.91, the Feb 16 high and the more important 133.15 hurdle, Feb 10 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching First Resistance

• RES 4: 0.7316 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 0.7314 High Jan 13 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.7277 High Jan 20
• RES 1: 0.7249 High Feb 09
• PRICE: 0.7236 @ 06:49 GMT Feb 23
• SUP 1: 0.7164 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.7086/7052 Low Feb 14 / Low Feb 4
• SUP 3: 0.6968/6963 Low Jan 28 / Low Jul 16, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6921 Low Jul 14, 2020

AUDUSD is trading higher and approaching first resistance at 0.7249, the Feb 10 high. A break of this hurdle would open a more important resistance at 0.7314, the Jan 13 high. Clearance of 0.7314 would highlight a broader bullish reversal. Support top watch is at 0.7086, the Feb 14 low where a break would instead signal potential for weakness towards the major support at 0.6968, the Jan 28 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Range Bound

• RES 4: 1.2964 High Dec 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2924 High Dec 22
• RES 2: 1.2843 76.4% retracement of the Dec 20 - Jan 19 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.2797 High Jan 28 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.2748 @ 06:52 GMT Feb 23
• SUP 1: 1.2636 Low Feb 10 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 1.2560 Low Jan 26
• SUP 3: 1.2451/48 Low Jan 19 / 76.4% of the Oct - Dec rally
• SUP 4: 1.2387 Low Nov 10

USDCAD traded higher Tuesday but continues to trade inside its range. A key short-term support lies at 1.2636, Feb 10 low. While this level holds, a positive outlook dominates following the recent recovery from 1.2451, Jan 19 low that resulted in a climb above the 50-day EMA and a move through 1.2768, 61.8% of the Dec 20 - Jan 19 sell-off. A break higher would open 1.2843, the 76.4% value. Sub 1.2636 levels would threaten the bullish theme.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H2) Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 170.42 High Jan 27
• RES 3: 168.77 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 168.42 38.2% retracement of the Dec 8 - Feb 16 downleg
• RES 1: 167.37 Trendline resistance drawn from the Dec 20 high
• PRICE: 165.73 @ 05:14 GMT Feb 23
• SUP 1: 164.34 Low Feb 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 164.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 163.63 Low Mar, 2019 (cont)
• SUP 4: 162.60 76.4% retrace of the Oct ‘18 - Sep ‘19 bull cycle (cont)

Bund futures failed to hold onto yesterday’s highs but have remained above the recent 164.34 low on Feb 16. Short-term gains are still deemed corrective with the broader trend signals pointing south. A sequence of lower lows and lower highs and bearish moving average conditions clearly highlight a dominant downtrend. The focus is on the 164.00 handle next. The 20-day EMA has been probed. The next resistance is at 167.37, a trendline.

BOBL TECHS: (H2) Corrective Phase Still In Play

• RES 4: 132.680 High Jan 31
• RES 3: 132.201 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 132.060 High Feb 3
• RES 1: 131.750 High Feb 22
• PRICE: 131.010 @ 05:16 GMT Feb 23
• SUP 1: 130.510 Low Feb 15
• SUP 2: 130.080 Low Feb 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 130.000 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 129.460 High Dec 7, 2015 (cont)

Bobl futures remain in a corrective cycle - price has traded above 131.360, the Feb 1 high and above the 20-day EMA. The broader trend direction remains bearish though as highlighted by the moving average set-up and a clear bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A stronger correction would open 132.060, the Feb 3 high and 132.201, the 50-day EMA. A resumption of weakness would open the 130.080 bear trigger.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H2) Gains Still Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 112.145 High Jan 24 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 112.070 High Jan 27
• RES 2: 112.020 High Jan 31
• RES 1: 111.965 High Feb 22
• PRICE: 111.745 @ 05:27 GMT Feb 23
• SUP 1: 111.545/420 Low Feb 15 / Low Feb 11
• SUP 2: 111.250/208 Low Feb 7 / 2.50 proj of Dec 20-Jan 19-24 swing
• SUP 3: 111.185 Low Jun 26, 2015 (cont)
• SUP 4: 111.140 Low Jun 11, 2015 (cont)

The trend direction in Schatz futures remains bearish however, the contract is still in a corrective cycle, following the recovery from 111.250, the Feb 7 low. The contract has cleared the 20-day EMA and traded above the 50-day EMA. The latter average intersects at 111.881 and a clear break would signal scope for a stronger rally towards 112.145, Jan 24 high. Price stalled at yesterday’s high. A deeper pullback would open 111.545 initially, the Feb 15 low.

GILT TECHS: (H2) Stalled At Yesterday’s High

• RES 4: 123.71 High Jan 24
• RES 3: 122.56 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 122.40 High Feb 3
• RES 1: 121.75 High Feb 22
• PRICE: 120.77 @ Close Feb 22
• SUP 1: 119.32 Low Feb 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 119.28 2.382 proj of the Jan 13 - 19 - 24 price swing
• SUP 3: 119.21 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 119.06 2.500 proj of the Jan 13 - 19 - 24 price swing

Gilt futures traded lower Tuesday. The medium-term trend condition remains down and recent gains are likely part of a correction. The move higher has breached the 20-day EMA and further gains would suggest potential for a climb towards the 122.00 handle and the 50-day EMA at 122.56. The EMA represents a key resistance point. A deeper reversal lower would refocus attention on 119.32, the Feb 16 low and bear trigger.

BTP TECHS: (H2) Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 143.90 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 142.55 High Feb 4
• RES 2: 141.10/14 20-day EMA / High Jan 9
• RES 1: 140.33 High Feb 18
• PRICE: 139.01 @ Close Feb 22
• SUP 1: 138.06 Low Feb 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 137.52 Low May 18, 2020 (cont)
• SUP 3: 136.86 Low May 13, 2020 (cont)
• SUP 4: 136.52 2.0% 10-dma envelope

BTP futures remain in a downtrend and recent gains are considered corrective. Recent selling pressure reinforced the bearish trend condition and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving averages point south too. The focus is on 137.64, the May 18 2020 low on the continuation contract. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at the Feb 9 high of 141.14.

EQUITIES

E-MINI S&P (H2): Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 4739.50 High Jan 12
• RES 3: 4671.75 High Jan 18
• RES 2: 4586.00 High Feb 2 and a near-term bull trigger
• RES 1: 4484.50 High Feb 16
• PRICE: 4320.00 @ 06:31 GMT Feb 23
• SUP 1: 4250.00 Low Feb 22
• SUP 2: 4212.75 Low Jan 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4186.57 23.6% of the Mar ‘20 - Jan ‘22 major rally
• SUP 4: 4131.04 0.764 proj of the Jan 4 - 24 - Feb 2 price swing

E-Mini S&P technical conditions remain bearish and the contract traded lower Tuesday. The moving average set-up continues to suggest that the broader path of least resistance remains down. The focus is on this year’s low of 4212.75 on Jan 24. For bulls, a clear break of the 50-day EMA - at 4519.72 - is required to suggest scope for a stronger recovery. Until then, a bearish threat remains present.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H2) Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 4381.50 High Jan 5 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 4324.50 High Jan 13
• RES 2: 4161.00/4250.00 50-day EMA / High Feb 2
• RES 1: 4011.50 High Feb 22
• PRICE: 3999.00 @ 05:51 GMT Feb 23
• SUP 1: 3874.00 Low Feb 22
• SUP 2: 3844.00 Low May 13 2021 (cont)
• SUP 3: 3727.00 Low Mar 25 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: 3709.60 1.382 proj of the Jan 5 - 24 - Feb 2 price swing

EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded to a fresh 2022 low Tuesday, breaching former support at 3990.50, the Jan 24 low. The break lower confirms a resumption of the broader bear cycle that started on Nov 18 last year. Futures have also traded below 3935.00, the Oct 6 2021 low and this opens 3895.00 next, the Jul 19 2021 low on the continuation chart. On the upside, the 50-day EMA at 4161.00 represents a key resistance.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (J2) Approaching The $100.00 Mark

• RES 4: $104.04 - 3.236 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 3: $101.49 - 3.00 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 2: $100.00 - Key psychological barrier
• RES 1: $99.50 - High Feb 22
• PRICE: $96.65 @ 06:58 GMT Feb 23
• SUP 1: $91.99 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $90.12/87.72 - Low Feb 18 / Low Feb 1
• SUP 3: $86.95 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $84.22 - Low Jan 24 and a key support

Brent futures have resumed their uptrend this week and traded to fresh cycle highs, clearing former resistance at $96.78, the Feb 14 high. This also marks an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and paves the way for a climb towards the important $100.00 psychological mark. Key short-term support has been defined at $90.12, the Feb 18 low where a break is required to signal a possible top.

WTI TECHS: (J2) Fresh Cycle High

• RES 4: $100.00 - Psychological barrier
• RES 3: $97.91 - 3.00 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 2: $95.38 - 2.764 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: $94.95 - High Feb 22
• PRICE: $91.73 @ 07:59 GMT Feb 22
• SUP 1: $87.46 - Low Feb 18
• SUP 2: $84.92 - Low Feb 1
• SUP 3: $83.39 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $81.06 - Low Jan 24

WTI futures traded higher Tuesday, clearing resistance at $93.83, the Feb 14 high. This confirms a resumption of the underlying uptrend and extends the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Attention is on $95.38 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $87.46, the Feb 18 low where a break is required to signal a potential top.

GOLD TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: $1959.4 - High Jan 6 2021
• RES 3: $1937.5 - Bull channel top drawn from the Aug 9 2021 low
• RES 2: $1916.6 - High Jun 1 2021 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $1914.3 - High Feb 22
• PRICE: $1897.3 @ 07:23 GMT Feb 23
• SUP 1: $1879.6/53.9 - High Feb 15 / High Jan 25
• SUP 2: $1844.7 Low Feb 15
• SUP 3: $1821.1 - Low Feb 11
• SUP 4: $1810.1 - Bull channel base drawn from the Aug 9 2021 low

Gold remains in an uptrend following the recent strong impulsive rally and is trading near its recent highs. Price is approaching the medium-term upside target of $1916.6, the Jun 1 2021 high and a key bull trigger. Note that the top of the bull channel, drawn from the Aug 9 2021 low, intersects at $1937.5. On the downside, $1853.9, the January cycle high is seen as a firm support. Pullbacks would be considered corrective.

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Theme

• RES 4: $25.406 - High Nov 16, 2021
• RES 3: $24.886 - High Nov 22
• RES 2: $24.700 - High Jan 20 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $24.366 - High Feb 22
• PRICE: $24.098 @ 07:26 GMT Feb 23
• SUP 1: $23.464 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $22.863/008 - Low Feb 11 / Low Feb 3 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: $21.949 - Low Jan 7
• SUP 4: $21.427/423 - Low Dec 15 / Low Sep 29 and key support

Silver remains bullish and traded higher Tuesday. The bullish follow through suggests scope for a continuation higher towards $24.700, the Jan 20 high and a key resistance. On the downside, key support lies at $22.008, the Feb 3 low. A break of this support would reinstate the recent bearish theme. This would instead open $21.949, the Jan 7 low. Initial firm support however lies at $22.863, Feb 11 low.