MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Equity Dip Confirmed as Corrective

Price Signal Summary - Equity Dip Confirmed as Corrective

• In the equity space, last week's pullback in S&P E-minis is considered corrective and a bull theme remains intact. Another all-time high print on Nov 5 confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and the focus remains on 4717.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. EUROSTOXX 50 futures uptrend remains intact and the contract has registered a fresh trend high today of 4373.00, reinforcing bullish conditions. The recent breach of 4223.00, Sep 6 high and a former bull trigger highlighted an important technical break.
• In FX, EURUSD is consolidating. The outlook remains bearish following last week's break of 1.1514, Nov 5 low. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the downward price sequence inside the bear channel drawn off the Jun 1 high. GBPUSD outlook remains bearish. The pair has breached support at 1.3412, Sep 29 low. This confirms a resumption of the current bear trend and paves the way for an extension lower short-term. The USDJPY rebound on Nov 11 highlights the potential end of the recent corrective pullback and the candle pattern on this day appears to be a bullish engulfing reversal. If correct, it signals scope for a stronger climb.
• On the commodity front, Gold rallied sharply higher last week and remains firm. The move higher resulted in a clear break of resistance at $1834.0, Sep 3 high. The breach of this hurdle reinforces current bullish conditions. WTI futures gains stalled on Nov 10 and futures traded sharply lower. Recent gains have exposed key resistance and the bull trigger at $85.41, Oct 25 high.
• In the FI space, Bund futures remain closer to recent highs. Last week's high print confirmed an extension of the current upleg. The recent breach of resistance at 169.83, Oct 27 high and clearance of the 50-day EMA signals scope for a stronger short-term corrective bounce. The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish despite the recent pullback. A reversal signal - the break and close above 125.27, Oct 14 high confirmed a double bottom pattern on Oct 27 - continues to play out.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 1.1821 High Sep 16
• RES 3: 1.17155 / High Sep 22
• RES 2: 1.1650/92 Bear channel top from Jun 1 high / High Oct 28
• RES 1: 1.1514/1608 Low Nov 5 / High Nov 9
• PRICE: 1.1458 @ 06:17 GMT Nov 15
• SUP 1: 1.1423 Low Jul 21 2020
• SUP 2: 1.1375 1.382 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1310 Bear channel base drawn from the Jun 1 high
• SUP 4: 1.1299 1.382 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing

EURUSD is consolidating. The outlook remains bearish following last week's break of 1.1514, Nov 5 low. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the downward price sequence inside the bear channel drawn off the Jun 1 high. Furthermore, MA studies remain in a bear mode, reinforcing current conditions. The next objective is 1.1375, a Fibonacci projection. 1.1608, Nov 9 high marks the key short-term resistance.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 1.3913 High Sep 14 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3835 High Oct 20
• RES 2: 1.3658 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3440/3607 High Intraday high / High Nov 9
• PRICE: 1.3431 @ 06:22 GMT Nov 15
• SUP 1: 1.3353 Low Nov 12
• SUP 2: 1.3334 1.00 proj of the Sep 14 - 29 - Oct 20 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.3304 Low Dec 22, 2020
• SUP 4: 1.3216 1.236 proj of the Sep 14 - 29 - Oct 20 price swing

GBPUSD outlook remains bearish. The pair has breached support at 1.3412, Sep 29 low. This confirms a resumption of the current bear trend and paves the way for an extension lower short-term. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode condition and this reinforces current conditions. The focus is on 1.3334 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance has been defined at 1.3607, Nov 9 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Short-Term Conditions

• RES 4: 0.8670 High Jul 20
• RES 3: 0.8658 High Sep 29 and key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8624 High Oct 1
• RES 1: 0.8598 76.4% retracement of the Sep 29 - Oct 26 sell-off
• PRICE: 0.8530 @ 06:27 GMT Nov 15
• SUP 1: 0.8518 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8463/41 Low Nov 3 / Low Nov 1
• SUP 3: 0.8403 Low Oct 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8356 Low Feb 26, 2020

EURGBP remains below 0.8595, the Nov 5 high. The short-term outlook is unchanged and remains bullish. Recent gains confirmed a breach of the 50-day EMA and the break improved short-term conditions for bulls, signaling scope for an extension higher. The focus is on 0.8598, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 29 - Oct 26 sell-off. Initial firm support is unchanged at 0.8463, Nov 3 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 115.51 High Mar 10, 2017
• RES 3: 114.99 1.50 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 price swing
• RES 2: 114.70/73 High Oct 20 / High Nov 6, 2017
• RES 1: 114.44 High Nov 1
• PRICE: 113.88 @ 06:31 GMT Nov 15
• SUP 1: 112.73/54 Low Nov 9 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 112.08 High Sep 30 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 111.51 Low Oct 8
• SUP 4: 110.82/80 Low Oct 4 / High Aug 11

The USDJPY rebound on Nov 11 highlights the potential end of the recent corrective pullback and the candle pattern on this day appears to be a bullish engulfing reversal. If correct, it signals scope for a stronger climb with attention on key resistance at 114.70, Oct 20 high. A break of 114.70 would confirm a resumption of the current primary uptrend. Key short-term support has been defined at 112.73, Nov 9 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Retracement Extends

• RES 4: 134.13 High Jun 1 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 133.76 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 132.92/133.48 High Oct 29 / High Oct 20
• RES 1: 131.29/59 20-day EMA / High Nov 5
• PRICE: 130.46 @ 06:36 GMT Nov 15
• SUP 1: 130.24 Low Nov 12
• SUP 2: 130.05 61.8% retracement of the Sep 22 - Oct 20 rally
• SUP 3: 129.28 Low Oct 11
• SUP 4: 128.94 Low Oct 8

EURJPY maintains a weaker short-term tone and continues to trade lower. The cross remains below its 50- and 20-day EMAs and the break of these averages suggests scope for a deeper pullback. The focus is on 130.05, a Fibonacci retracement. Broader trend signals continue to point north though and the recent sell-off is still considered corrective. Initial resistance is at 131.36, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching The Bull Channel Base

• RES 4: 0.7599 High Jul 6
• RES 3: 0.7545/57 200-dma / 50.0% of the Feb - Aug sell-off
• RES 2: 0.7432/7471 High Nov 9 / High Nov 4
• RES 1: 0.7360 Low Nov 5
• PRICE: 0.7345 @ 06:42 GMT Nov 15
• SUP 1: 0.7277 Low Nov 12
• SUP 2: 0.7261 76.4% retracement of the Sep 29 - Oct 28 rally
• SUP 3: 0.7245 Bull channel base drawn from the Aug 20 low
• SUP 4: 0.7226/7170 Low Oct 6 / Low Sep 29

AUDUSD traded lower Friday but has found some support. The near-term outlook remains bearish. Recent weakness has opened 0.7261, a Fibonacci retracement. A firm support lies just below, at 0.7245, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Aug 20 low. The recent move lower is considered corrective. A channel breakout though would alter the picture. Resistance to watch is 0.7432, Nov 9 high. A break would ease bearish pressure.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Following Last Week's Rally

• RES 4: 1.2775 High Sep 29
• RES 3: 1.2739 High Oct 1
• RES 2: 1.2664 61.8.0% retracement of the Sep 20 - Oct 21 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.2605 High Nov 12
• PRICE: 1.2535 @ 06:50 GMT Nov 15
• SUP 1: 1.2493/2387 50-day EMA / Low Nov 10
• SUP 2: 1.2288 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2253 Low Jun 23
• SUP 4: 1.2229 76.4% retracement of the Jun - Aug rally

USDCAD traded higher Friday, printing a new weekly high of 1.2605. This puts prices north of both the Oct 8 high and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the Sep 20 - Oct 21 sell-off at 1.2592. Last week's gains have strengthened S/T conditions for bulls and has opened 1.2664 next, the 61.8% retracement. Further out, there is scope for a climb towards the October high of 1.2739. Initial firm support has been defined at 1.2387, Nov 10 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z1) Trading Closer To Recent Highs

• RES 4: 172.12 High Sep 14
• RES 3: 171.95 61.8% retracement of the Aug - Nov sell-off
• RES 2: 171.72 High Sep 23
• RES 1: 171.44 High Nov 9
• PRICE: 171.12 @ 05:30 GMT Nov 15
• SUP 1: 170.06 Low Nov 5
• SUP 2: 168.98 Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 167.69 Low Nov 1 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 167.52 Low Mar 19 2020 (cont)

Bund futures remain closer to recent highs. Last week's high print confirmed an extension of the current upleg. The recent breach of resistance at 169.83, Oct 27 high and clearance of the 50-day EMA signals scope for a stronger short-term corrective bounce. 171.14, 50.0% of the Aug - Nov sell-off has been breached and attention is on 171.95, the 76.4% level. On the downside, initial support to watch is unchanged at 170.06.

BOBL TECHS: (Z1) Short-Term Outlook Still Bullish

• RES 4: 135.660 High Sep 9
• RES 3: 135.540 High Sep 21 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 135.380 High Sep 23
• RES 1: 135.280 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 135.170 @ 05:29 GMT Nov 15
• SUP 1: 134.700/320 Low Nov 11 / Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: 133.900/690 Low Nov 2
• SUP 3: 133.340 Low Mar 19 and key medium-term support (cont)
• SUP 4: 133.308 1.764 proj of the Oct 4 - 13 - 14 price swing

The near-term outlook in Bobl futures remains bullish. Attention remains on resistance at 135.20, Sep 17 low and the Oct 4 plus Nov 5 high. It was probed last week, a clear break would open 135.540, Sep 21 high. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 134.320, Nov 3 low. A break would sour the recent positive tone and instead signal a potential resumption of the broader downtrend.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z1) Heading North

• RES 4: 112.475 High Nov 5 2020 (cont)
• RES 3: 112.450 High Dec 11 2020 (cont)
• RES 2: 112.415 High Aug 5 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 1: 112.380 High Aug 12 and intraday high
• PRICE: 112.375 @ 05:49 GMT Nov 15
• SUP 1: 112.210/100 20- and 50-day EMA and key near-term support
• SUP 2: 112.100 Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 112.050 Low Nov 2
• SUP 4: 111.945 Low Oct 28 and major support

A sharp rally in Schatz futures recently means the contract has established a bullish S/T cycle. Friday's resumption of gains reinforces this. Resistance at 112.290, Sep 20 high has recently been breached and the break paves the way for strength towards 112.415 next, Aug 5 high (cont). A break of 112.415 would mark a 100.0% retracement of the Aug -Sep sell-off and open 112.450, Dec 11 2020 high (cont). 112.210, the 20- and 50-day EMAs marks support.

GILT TECHS: (Z1 Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 128.18 High Sep 10 and 14
• RES 3: 127.95 76.4% retracement of the Aug - Oct downleg
• RES 2: 127.69 High Sep 21
• RES 1: 127.29 High Nov 9
• PRICE: 126.35 @ Close Nov 12
• SUP 1: 125.96 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 124.79/25 Low Nov 4 / Low Nov 1
• SUP 3: 123.43 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 123.16 Low Feb 27, 2019 (cont)

The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish despite the recent pullback. A reversal signal - the break and close above 125.27, Oct 14 high confirmed a double bottom pattern on Oct 27 - continues to play out. With a number of important short-term resistance levels cleared, attention is on 127.69 next, Sep 21 high. Initial key support has been defined at 124.25, Nov 1 low. First support is now seen at 125.96, the 20-day EMA.

BTP TECHS: (Z1) Near-Term Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 155.14 High Aug 31
• RES 3: 154.64 High Sep 22 / 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 153.59 High Sep 24
• RES 1: 153.08 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 151.54 @ Close Nov 12
• SUP 1: 150.72 Nov 12 low
• SUP 2: 149.89 Nov 3 low
• SUP 3: 148.14 Low Nov 2
• SUP 4: 147.12 Low Nov 1 and the bear trigger

BTP futures outlook remains bullish despite the most recent pullback. Recent gains have confirmed a short-term bull cycle and last week's breach of 152.54, Oct 14 high reinforces this condition. The break strengthens the short-term case for bulls and opens 153.59 next, Sep 24 high. Initial firm support is seen at 149.89, Nov 3 low. Key support has been defined at 147.12, Nov 1 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (Z1) Fresh Trend High

• RES 4: 4498.00 High Dec 27, 2007 (cont)
• RES 3: 4448.00 High Jan 2, 2008 (cont)
• RES 2: 4400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4373.00 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4362.00 @ 06:11 GMT Nov 15
• SUP 1: 4268.40/4223.50 20-day EMA High Sep 6
• SUP 2: 4193.30 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4119.00 Low Oct 18
• SUP 4: 4004.00 / 3949.50 Low Oct 12 / Low Oct 6 and bear trigger

EUROSTOXX 50 futures uptrend remains intact and the contract has registered a fresh trend high today of 4373.00, reinforcing bullish conditions. The recent breach of 4223.00, Sep 6 high and a former bull trigger highlighted an important technical break. It confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and attention is on the 4400.00 handle. The 50-day EMA, at 4193.30, remains a key support. A break would signal a potential top.

E-MINI S&P (Z1): Steady Above Support

• RES 4: 4800.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4783.40 1.764 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - Aug 19 price swing
• RES 2: 4746.68 1.618 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - Aug 19 price swing
• RES 1: 4717.00 1.50 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - Aug 19 price swing
• PRICE: 4679.75 @ 06:55 GMT Nov 15
• SUP 1: 4599.19 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4543.75 Low Oct 27
• SUP 3: 4514.02/ 4472.00 50-day EMA / High Sep 27
• SUP 4: 4317.25/4260.00 Low Oct 12 / Low Oct 1 and the bear trigger

Last week's pullback in S&P E-minis is considered corrective and a bull theme remains intact. Another all-time high print on Nov 5 confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and the focus remains on 4717.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. Trend signals such as moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up, reinforcing current conditions and market sentiment. The 50-day EMA at 4514.02 continues to represent the key support handle.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F2) Eyeing Support

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $87.73 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 2: $87.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $85.77 - High Oct 25 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $81.31 @ 06:56 GMT Nov 15
• SUP 1: $80.20 - Low Nov 4 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: $79.99 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $78.42 - Low Oct 7
• SUP 4: $75.80 - Low Sep 30

Brent futures stalled on Oct 11 . Recent activity exposed key resistance and the bull trigger at $85.77, Oct 25 high. A break of this hurdle is required to confirm a resumption of the underlying uptrend and resume the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This would open $87.73, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support to watch is $80.20 Nov 4 low where a break would instead reverse the trend.

WTI TECHS: (Z1) Remains Below Resistance

• RES 4: $88.96 - 1.382 proj of the Sep 21 - Oct 6 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: $87.45 - 1.236 proj of the Sep 21 - Oct 6 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: $86.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $84.97/85.41 - High Nov 10 / High Oct 25 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $80.13 @ 07:03 GMT Nov 15
• SUP 1: $78.25 - Low Nov 4 and key support
• SUP 2: $78.16- 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $74.67 - Low Oct 7 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: $72.82 - Low Sep 30

WTI futures gains stalled on Nov 10 and futures traded sharply lower. Recent gains have exposed key resistance and the bull trigger at $85.41, Oct 25 high. A break of this resistance is required to confirm a resumption of the uptrend and resume the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This would open $87.45, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at $78.25 Nov 4 low. A break would be bearish.

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Conditions Intact

• RES 4: $1916.6 - High Jun 1 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $1909.7 - High Jun 3
• RES 2: $1903.8 - High Jun 8
• RES 1: $1868.7/1877.7 - High Nov 10 and 12 / High Jun 14
• PRICE: $1857.4 @ 07:18 GMT Nov 15
• SUP 1: $1822.4/1810.9 - Low Nov 10 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1794.6/1759.0 - 50-day EMA / Low Nov 3 and a key support
• SUP 3: $1746.0 - Low Oct 6
• SUP 4: $1721.7 - Low Sep 29 and the bear trigger

Gold rallied sharply higher last week and remains firm. The move higher resulted in a clear break of resistance at $1834.0, Sep 3 high. The breach of this hurdle reinforces current bullish conditions and paves the way for further strength. Note too that the yellow metal has also breached $1863.3, 76.4% of the Jun - Aug sell-off. The focus is on $1877.7 next, Jun 14 high. Support is seen at $1822.4, the Nov 10 low.

SILVER TECHS: Heading North

• RES 4: $26.778 - High Jul 6
• RES 3: $26.467 - High Jul 14
• RES 2: $26.002 - High Aug 4 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $25.510 - High Aug 5
• PRICE: $25.079 @ 07:21 GMT Nov 15
• SUP 1: $23.878/23.020 - 50-day EMA / Low Nov 3 and a key support
• SUP 2: $22.213 - Low Oct 6
• SUP 3: $21.423 - Low Sep 29 and key support
• SUP 4: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb '21 rally

Silver is holding onto the bulk of its gains from last week. Recent price action had defined key short-term directional triggers at; $23.020, Nov 3 low and $24.828, Oct 22 high. The $24.828 resistance has been cleared and the break confirms a resumption of the current bull cycle. This opens $26.002 next, Aug 4 high. For bears, weakness through $23.020 is required to instead expose $22.213, Oct 6 low.