MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Equity Futures Facing First Support

Price Signal Summary – Equity Futures Facing First Support

• The pullback off last week’s highs for the e-mini S&P has now tested the first material support at the 20-day EMA of 4748.77, with prices stabilising above the mark headed through the Thursday open. While the level has been pierced on an intraday basis, a close below will be needed to accelerate any reversal. A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and weakness into the Wednesday close appears to be a correction. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, signalling a rising trend cycle.
• A bearish theme in EURJPY remains intact despite Wednesday’s modest bounce off the YTD low. The cross is trading below key short-term resistance at 158.67, the Dec 12 high. Clearance of this level would signal a short-term reversal. USDJPY traded sharply higher Wednesday and is building on gains early Thursday. This defies the bearish signals evident in the pullback from the early December highs. The recovery from the Dec 28 low, however, was a correction and the trend condition remains bearish longer-term. The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. The pair breached resistance at 1.2794, the Dec 14 high and traded through 1.2800. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and paves the way for a climb towards 1.2881, a Fibonacci retracement.
• The Dec 13 reversal in Gold and the subsequent move higher points to the end of the Dec 4 - 13 corrective pullback. Last week’s move also highlights a bullish theme and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, reflecting an uptrend. Bearish conditions in WTI futures remain intact and recent gains at these levels continue to look corrective. Resistance to watch is $75.64, the 50-day EMA. The average was briefly pierced last week. A clear break of it would strengthen a bullish theme and highlight a stronger reversal.
• Bund futures recovered into the Wednesday close and have improved further early Thursday as regional German CPIs fared softer-than-expected. The mid-week pull lower has alleviated the overbought trend condition, further aiding a recovery - although last week’s highs remain out of reach for now. The current uptrend in Gilt futures remains intact despite the pullback off last week’s high. The 20-day EMA stalled the decline, undercutting yesterday’s lows at 101.06. More broadly, the contract traded to a fresh trend high on Wednesday last week, reinforcing bullish conditions.

EURUSD TECHS: Golden Cross

• RES 4: 1.1276 High Jul 18 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.1229 High Jul 20
• RES 2: 1.1150 High Jul 27
• RES 1: 1.1139 High Dec 28
• PRICE: 1.0941 @ 08:40 GMT Jan 04
• SUP 1: 1.0893 Low Jan 03
• SUP 2: 1.0880 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0724 Low Dec 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.0693 Low Nov 14

Near-term EUR/USD weakness persisted through the Wednesday close, with the pair moving below the 20-day EMA support. For now, the pullback looks corrective in nature, with prices holding within the uptrend channel drawn off the October low. This keeps 1.0878 as the key support. The medium-term view remains positive, supported by the formation of a golden cross in DMA space (50- rising above the 200-dma), highlighting positive underlying market sentiment.

GBPUSD TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.3045 High Jul 19
• RES 3: 1.2996 High Jul 27
• RES 2: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.2827 High Dec 28
• PRICE: 1.2688 @ 08:41 GMT Jan 04
• SUP 1: 1.2611/12 Low Jan 03 / Dec 21 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: 1.2578 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 1.2575 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.2500 Low Dec 13

The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. The pair breached resistance at 1.2794, the Dec 14 high and traded through 1.2800. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and paves the way for a climb towards 1.2881, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. Initial firm support has been defined at 1.2612, the Dec 21 low - a level tested, but not convincingly broken in Tuesday trade.

EURGBP TECHS: 50-day EMA Cracks into the Close

• RES 4: 0.8814 High May 4
• RES 3: 0.8793 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8768 High Nov 20 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.8716 76.4% retracement of the Nov 20 - Dec 11 sell-off
• PRICE: 0.8623 @ 08:42 GMT Jan 04
• SUP 1: 0.8617 Low Dec 20
• SUP 2: 0.8571 Low Dec 15
• SUP 3: 0.8549 Low Dec 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8524 Low Sep 5

EURGBP slid into the Wednesday close, extending the pullback off last week’s high and taking out the 50-day EMA support in the process. With the level broken, there remains potential for a stronger short-term reversal lower before any continuation of the underlying bull cycle. Key support is unchanged at 0.8549, the Dec 11 low. To the upside, sights are on 0.8716 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial support lies at 0.8571, the Dec 15 low.

USDJPY TECHS: S/T Correction Higher

• RES 4: 147.32 High Dec 7
• RES 3: 146.59 High Dec 11 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 145.31 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 144.96 High Dec 19
• PRICE: 143.61 @ 08:44 GMT Jan 04
• SUP 1: 140.23 2.00 proj of the Nov 13 - 21 - 22 price swing
• SUP 2: 139.11 2.236 proj of the Nov 13 - 21 - 22 price swing
• SUP 3: 138.07 Low Jul 28
• SUP 4: 137.25 Low Jul 14 and key support

USDJPY traded sharply higher Wednesday and is building on gains early Thursday. This defies the bearish signals evident in the pullback from the early December highs. The recovery from the Dec 28 low, however, was a correction and the trend condition remains bearish longer-term. Initial resistance has given way at 143.89, the 20-day EMA, opening 145.31. Gains are considered corrective below this level. Support at 140.97, the Dec 14 low, has been cleared, confirming a resumption of the downtrend that started Nov 13. This opens 140.23, a Fibonacci projection point.

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 161.78 High Dec 1
• RES 3: 159.93 High Dec 4
• RES 2: 158.67 High Dec 12 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 158.15 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 157.13 @ 08:47 GMT Jan 04
• SUP 1: 155.08/153.23 Low Jan 02 / Dec 07 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 152.24 3.764 proj of the Nov 16 - 21 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 151.42 Low Jul 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: 150.92 Low Jun 14

A bearish theme in EURJPY remains intact despite Wednesday’s modest bounce off the YTD low. The cross is trading below key short-term resistance at 158.67, the Dec 12 high. Clearance of this level would signal a short-term reversal. While 158.67 remains intact, recent gains appear to be a correction. A continuation lower and a break of 153.23, the Dec 7 low and bear trigger, would resume the downtrend. This would open 152.24, a Fibonacci projection.

AUDUSD TECHS: Fades Off Key Resistance

• RES 4: 0.6961 1.236 proj of the Nov 10 - Dec 4 - Dec 7 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 2: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6871 High Dec 28
• PRICE: 0.6748 @ 08:48 GMT Jan 04
• SUP 1: 0.6736 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6702 Low Jan 03
• SUP 3: 0.6635 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.6526 Low Dec 7 and key support

Bullish trend conditions in AUDUSD remain intact despite the corrective USD rally so far in 2024. Last week’s continuation higher reinforced the underlying bullish condition. Sights are on 0.6900, the Jun 16 high and the next key resistance. On the downside, key short-term support is unchanged at 0.6526, the Dec 7 low. Initial firm support is at 0.6736, the 20-day EMA. Short-term weakness is considered corrective.

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Rally Stalls

• RES 4: 1.3474 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.3371 High Dec 20 / 21
• RES 2: 1.3356 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3334 High Jan 03
• PRICE: 1.3324 @ 08:51 GMT Jan 04
• SUP 1: 1.3177 Low Dec 27
• SUP 2: 1.3093 Low Jul 14 and key support
• SUP 3: 1.2999 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.2992 50.0% retracement of the 2021 - 2022 bull phase

The USDCAD trend outlook remains bearish, despite another corrective bounce into the Wednesday close. The pair last week cleared a bear trigger at 1.3480, the Dec 4 low. Furthermore, all key short-term retracement points have been breached. These developments reinforce a bearish theme and maintain the price sequence of lower lows. Sights are on 1.3093, the Jul 14 low and a key support. Resistance to watch is 1.3356, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H4) Overbought Condition Alleviates, Aiding Recovery

• RES 4: 140.30 High Mar 20 (cont)
• RES 3: 140.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 139.39 3.764 proj of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 138.84 High Dec 27
• PRICE: 137.64 @ 07:33 GMT Jan 04
• SUP 1: 136.41 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 136.25 Low Jan 03
• SUP 3: 134.37 Low Dec 8 and a key support
• SUP 4: 133.42 Low Dec 4

Prices recovered into the Wednesday close and have improved further early Thursday as regional German CPIs fared softer-than-expected. The mid-week pull lower has alleviated the overbought trend condition, further aiding a recovery - although last week’s highs remain out of reach for now. The low of 136.25 this week is deemed corrective in nature, with prices still yet to test the 20-day EMA of 135.99. This keeps the broader uptrend intact, extending the recent break of resistance at 135.81, the Dec 7 high. A resumption of gains would open 139.39, a Fibonacci projection. Firm short-term support is seen at 136.41, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (H4) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 120.460 1.00 proj of the Nov 24 - Dec 7 - 8 price swing
• RES 3: 120.130 High Mar 24 (cont)
• RES 2: 120.000 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 119.832 0.764 proj of the Nov 24 - Dec 7 - 8 price swing
• PRICE: 119.510 @ 07:38 GMT Jan 04
• SUP 1: 118.820 Low Jan 02
• SUP 2: 118.776 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 117.800 Low Dec 8 and a key support
• SUP 4: 117.510 Low Dec 4

A bull cycle in Bobl futures remains in play despite the modest weakness off last week’s high. The recovery into yesterday’s close and early strength Thursday further plays into the theme. Recent appreciation confirms, once again, a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 119.832, a Fibonacci projection point. On the downside, key short-term support is unchanged at 117.800, the Dec 8 low. A short-term pullback would be considered corrective.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H4) Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 106.774 1.618 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 3: 106.698 1.50 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 2: 106.640 High Dec 29
• RES 1: 106.621 1.382 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• PRICE: 106.580 @ 07:41 GMT Jan 04
• SUP 1: 106.355/181 Low Dec 20 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 106.160 Low Dec 15
• SUP 3: 105.955 Low Dec 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 105.780 Low Dec 1

Trend conditions in Schatz futures remain bullish, with this morning’s strength aiding the rally back toward last week’s highs. The contract has cleared 106.495, the Dec 14 high. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 106.621, a Fibonacci projection and 106.640. Key short-term support has been defined at 105.955, Dec 13 low.

GILT TECHS: (H4) 20-day EMA Stalls Declines

• RES 4: 104.57 2.50 proj of the Nov 30 - Dec 6 - Dec 11 price swing
• RES 3: 104.23 2.382 proj of the Nov 30 - Dec 6 - Dec 11 price swing
• RES 2: 104.16 High Apr 12 (cont)
• RES 1: 104.00 Psychological round number
• PRICE: 101.95 @ Close Jan 03
• SUP 1: 101.08 Low Jan 02
• SUP 2: 101.06 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 100.20 High Dec 13 and gap high
• SUP 4: 98.97 High Dec 6 and a recent breakout level

The current uptrend in Gilt futures remains intact despite the pullback off last week’s high. The 20-day EMA stalled the decline, undercutting yesterday’s lows at 101.06. More broadly, the contract traded to a fresh trend high on Wednesday last week, reinforcing bullish conditions. This confirmed the underlying uptrend to maintain a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The latest pullback is considered corrective and support to watch is 100.20, the Dec 13 high. A resumption of gains would open 104.00.

BTP TECHS: (H4) Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 123.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 122.63 High Dec 7 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 122.18 3.00 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 121.43 2.764 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• PRICE: 119.55 @ 07:49 GMT Jan 04
• SUP 1: 118.43/118.37 Low Jan 03 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 115.70 Low Dec 8 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 114.13 Low Nov 30
• SUP 4: 112.70 Low Nov 24

A bull cycle in BTP futures stalled at last week’s highs, with the fade in prices deemed corrective in nature at these levels. Last week’s price action reinforced underlying bullish conditions and confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Price has recently cleared resistance at 117.22, the Dec 7 high and a bull trigger. The breach maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 122.18, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 115.70, the Dec 8 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H4) Wednesday Pullback Deemed Corrective

• RES 4: 4697.50 1.382 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 4662.90 1.236 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 4636.70 76.4% retracement of the 2000 - 2009 downleg (cont)
• RES 1: 4634.00 High Dec 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4482.00 @ 07:51 GMT Jan 04
• SUP 1: 4459.00 Low Jan 03
• SUP 2: 4447.00 Low Dec 05
• SUP 3: 4436.30 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4370.00 Low Nov 28

A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and weakness into the Wednesday close appears to be a correction. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, signalling a rising trend cycle. Furthermore, recent gains confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and this has maintained the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 4636.70, a L/T Fibonacci retracement. Support at the 20-day EMA has been pierced, turning focus to the 50-day EMA of 4436.30.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (H4) Pullback Testing First Support

• RES 4: 4915.11 1.236 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 4900.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4854.75 1.00 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 4841.50 High Dec 28
• PRICE: 4752.00 @ 07:57 GMT Jan 04
• SUP 1: 4748.77 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4741.00 Low Jan 03
• SUP 3: 4648.10 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4594.00 Low Nov 30

The pullback off last week’s highs has now tested the first material support at the 20-day EMA of 4748.77, with prices stabilising above the mark headed through the Thursday open. While the level has been pierced on an intraday basis, a close below will be needed to accelerate any reversal, keeping the medium-term view more positive. Last week’s fresh trend highs reinforce current conditions, with sights on 4854.75 next, a Fibonacci projection.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H4) Remains Below Key Short-Term Resistance

• RES 4: $86.50 - High Nov 3
• RES 3: $85.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $84.22 - High Nov 30
• RES 1: $81.45 - High Dec 26 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $78.94 @ 08:22 GMT Jan 04
• SUP 1: $75.60 - Low Jan 03
• SUP 2: $72.67/71.21 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger / Low Jun 23
• SUP 3: $69.25 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 4: $67.84 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 20 - Nov 16 - 30 price swing

The pullback off Tuesday’s high of $81.45 has steadied, however the level remains key short-term resistance for now. The reversal off the late December highs means that price has not remained above the 50-day EMA. This suggests that the corrective cycle between Dec 13 - 26 is over. The primary trend direction is down and a continuation lower would open $72.67, the Dec 13 low and bear trigger. Clearance of $81.45 is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

WTI TECHS: (G4) Watching Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $84.18 - High Oct 24
• RES 3: $82.64 - High Nov 3
• RES 2: $79.67 - High Nov 30 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $75.12/76.18 - 50-day EMA / High Dec 26
• PRICE: $73.57 @ 08:25 GMT Jan 04
• SUP 1: $70.06 - Low Jan 02
• SUP 2: $67.98/07 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger / Low Jun 23
• SUP 3: $65.24 - Low May 4 and a key support
• SUP 4: $63.79 - 2.236 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 6 - Oct 20 price swing

Bearish conditions in WTI futures remain intact and recent gains at these levels continue to look corrective. Resistance to watch is $75.64, the 50-day EMA. The average was briefly pierced last week. A clear break of it would strengthen a bullish theme and highlight a stronger reversal. For bears, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. The trigger for a resumption of the downtrend lies at $67.98, the Dec 13 low.

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Conditions Intact

• RES 4: $2177.6 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2135.4 - High Dec 4 and all-time high
• RES 2: $2097.1 - 76.4% retracement of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• RES 1: $2088.5 - High Dec 28
• PRICE: $2047.5 @ 08:30 GMT Jan 04
• SUP 1: $2040.3 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1973.2 - Low Dec 13
• SUP 3: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13 and key support
• SUP 4: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16

The Dec 13 reversal in Gold and the subsequent move higher points to the end of the Dec 4 - 13 corrective pullback. Last week’s move also highlights a bullish theme and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, reflecting an uptrend. A continuation higher has opened $2097.1, 76.4% of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg, ahead of key resistance and the Dec 4 all-time high of $2135.4. Key support lies at $1973.2, the Dec 13 low.

SILVER TECHS: Mid-week Pullback Flips Outlook Neutral

• RES 4: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022
• RES 3: $26.135 - High May 5 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.761 - High Dec 4 and key resistance
• RES 1: $24.606/994 - High Dec 22 / 76.4% of Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• PRICE: $23.020 @ 08:35 GMT Jan 04
• SUP 1: $22.510 - Low Dec 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: $21.883 - Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 3: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

Silver faded into the Wednesday close, however nearby support remains untroubled for now. Nonetheless, the short-term outlook appears more neutral as price operates between $24.994, a Fibonacci retracement to the upside, as well as key resistance at $25.761, the Dec 4 high. Key support lies at $22.510, the Dec 13 low.