MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR Bear Flag Confirmed

Price Signal Summary - EURUSD Bear Flag Confirmed

• S&P E-minis maintain a bullish tone however the recent pullback suggests the contract has entered a corrective cycle. A deeper pullback would open 1.4155.50, the Jun 3 low and the 50-day EMA at 4139.35. The EMA represents a key support level. A clear break of the average is required to signal potential for a deeper retracement.
• In the FX space, EURUSD fell sharply yesterday on the back of broad post-Fed USD strength, confirming a bearish cycle. The recent breach of the 50-day EMA and 1.2104, Jun 4 low highlights a bearish theme and yesterday's sell-off also confirmed a recent bear flag formation following the consolidation earlier this week. GBPUSD weakness accelerated Wednesday, with prices breaking below key support at the 50-day EMA. The move through the average strengthens a short-term bearish outlook and scope is seen for a deeper corrective pullback. USDJPY traded higher yesterday extending the recovery from 109.19, Jun 7 low. The break of 110.33, Jun 4 high negates recent bearish threats and instead confirms a resumption of the uptrend since Apr 23.
• On the commodity front, Gold traded sharply lower yesterday reinforcing the current bearish cycle. The break lower has resulted in a clear breach of the 50-day EMA signalling scope for a deeper pullback towards $1796.8 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Trend conditions in oil remain bullish and price continues to trend higher. Brent (Q1) focus is on $75.60, Apr 25 high 2019 (cont). WTI (N1) registers another high print. The focus is on $73.20, 3.236 projection of Mar 23 - 30 - Apr 5 price swing.
• Within FI, Bund futures are weaker and remain below recent highs. The current pullback is still considered corrective however there is scope for a deeper pullback. Last week Gilt futures cleared 127.74/85, Apr 20 and May 7, 26 highs respectively and a key resistance zone. The move through 127.74 confirms a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, highlighting a bull theme.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Confirmed

• RES 4: 1.2349/53 High Jan 6 / High Apr 20, 2018
• RES 3: 1.2266/85 High May 25 and the bull trigger / High Jan 8
• RES 2: 1.2218 High Jun 9
• RES 1: 1.2147 High Jun 15
• PRICE: 1.2000 @ 05:56 BST Jun 17
• SUP 1: 1.1985/74 61.8% of the Mar 31 - May 25 rally / Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.1943 Low Apr 19
• SUP 3: 1.1919 61.8% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 25 rally
• SUP 4: 1.1893 2.0% 10-dma envelope

EURUSD fell sharply yesterday on the back of broad post-Fed USD strength, confirming a bearish cycle. The recent breach of the 50-day EMA and 1.2104, Jun 4 low highlights a bearish theme and yesterday's sell-off also confirmed a recent bear flag formation following the consolidation earlier this week. The pair is testing a Fibonacci retracement at 1.1985, a break would open 1.1943, Apr 19 low. Initial resistance is at 1.2147, Jun 15 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Clears The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.4377 High Apr 17, 2018 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.4315 High Apr 18, 2018
• RES 2: 1.4203/48 High Jun 3 / High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.4133 High Jun 16
• PRICE: 1.3996 @ 06:06 BST Jun 17
• SUP 1: 1.3971 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.3935 100-DMA
• SUP 3: 1.3887 Low May 7
• SUP 4: 1.3858 Low May 6

GBPUSD weakness accelerated Wednesday, with prices breaking below key support at the 50-day EMA. The move through the average strengthens a short-term bearish outlook and scope is seen for a deeper corrective pullback. Attention turns to the 100-dma at 1.3935 next. For bulls, a climb above 1.4133, yesterday's high is required to ease the current bearish pressure. Key trend resistance is at 1.4248, Jun 1 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 0.8768 2.0% 10-dma envelope and high Feb 12
• RES 3: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 2: 0.8701/21 High May 7 / High Apr 26 and the bull Trigger
• RES 1: 0.8646/72 High Jun 1 / High May 25
• PRICE: 0.8572 @ 06:12 BST Jun 17
• SUP 1: 0.8565/61 Low Jun 4 / Low May 12
• SUP 2: 0.8531 76.4% retracement of the Apr 5 - 26 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8424 2.0% 10-dma envelope

EURGBP conditions are unchanged and the cross remains in consolidation mode and in a range. The trend outlook is bearish. Initial firm resistance is unchanged at 0.8672, May 25 high and while this holds, attention is on 0.8561, May 12 low. A break would strengthen a bearish case and expose 0.8531, a Fibonacci retracement ahead of key support at 0.8472, Apr 5 low. For bulls, a break of 0.8672 would alter the picture.

USDJPY TECHS: Approaches The Cycle High

• RES 4: 111.71 High Mar 24 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 111.30 High Mar 26, 2020
• RES 2: 110.97 High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 110.90 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• PRICE: 110.69 @ 06:25 BST Jun 17
• SUP 1: 109.81 Low Jun 16
• SUP 2: 109.19/16 Low Jun 7 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 108.56/34 Low May 25 / Low May 7 and key S/T support
• SUP 4: 107.48 Low Apr 23 and the bear trigger

USDJPY traded higher yesterday extending the recovery from 109.19, Jun 7 low. The break of 110.33, Jun 4 high negates recent bearish threats and instead confirms a resumption of the uptrend since Apr 23. Attention is on 110.90, the 1.0% 10-dma envelope and key resistance at 110.97, the year high print on Mar 31. A break of 110.97 would confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend. Initial support is at 109.81, yesterday's low.

EURJPY TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 135.23 Bull channel top drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low
• RES 3: 134.80 High Feb 8, 2018
• RES 2: 134.19 1.618 proj of Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 swing
• RES 1: 133.76/134.13 High Jun 10 / High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 132.79 @ 06:35 BST Jun 17
• SUP 1: 132.65 Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: 132.52 Low May 24
• SUP 3: 132.16 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 131.78 Bull channel base drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low

EURJPY traded lower yesterday but remains above 132.65, Jun 14 low. The recent move lower has seen price trade through the 20-day EMA signalling scope for a deeper corrective pullback, with attention on the 50-day EMA at 132.16. A support is also seen at 132.52, May 24 low. On the upside, firm resistance is at 133.76, Jun 10 high. A break would expose 134.13, Jun 1 high and the key bull trigger.

AUDUSD TECHS: Clears Support

• RES 4: 0.7891/95 High May 10 / 76.4% of the Feb 25 - Apr 1 sell-off
• RES 3: 0.7813/46 High May 18 / High May 12
• RES 2: 0.7776 High Jun 11
• RES 1: 0.7716 High Jun 16
• PRICE: 0.7632 @ 06:47 BST Jun 17
• SUP 1: 0.7598 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.7586 Low Apr 13
• SUP 3: 0.7555 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.7552/32 200-dma / Low Apr 1 and a key support

AUDUSD broke to new multi-month lows Wednesday and has touched a low of 0.7598 today. The break of support at 0.7646, Jun 3 low reinforces a bearish theme and opens 0.7586, Apr 13 low and 0.7532, Apr 1 low and a key support. On the upside, initial resistance is at 0.7716, yesterday's high where a break would ease bearish pressure and expose 0.7776, the Jun 11 high and 0.7813, May 18 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Trading Above The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.2419 High Apr 27
• RES 3: 1.2378 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.2351 High May 4 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 1.2292 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.22651 @ 06:54 BST Jun 17
• SUP 1: 1.2140 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2057/2007 Low Jun 7 / Low May 18
• SUP 3: 1.2000 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 1.1920 Low May 2015

USDCAD rallied yesterday and cleared key resistance at 1.2203, May 6 high, cementing the near-term bounce and signalling scope for a stronger corrective recovery. The pair has also cleared the 50-day EMA, reinforcing current bullish conditions. This opens gains toward the near-term resistance at 1.2351, May 4 high and the 2.0% 10-dma envelope at 1.2378. Initial support is at 1.2140, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U1) Back Below The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 173.79 High Apr 8
• RES 3: 173.32 76.4% retracement of the Mar 25 - May 19 sell-off
• RES 2: 173.16 High Jun 11
• RES 1: 172.80 High Jun 15
• PRICE: 171.91 @ 04:57 BST Jun 17
• SUP 1: 171.65/37 Low Jun 7 / Low Jun 3
• SUP 2: 170.99 Low Mar 31 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 170.56 Low May 24
• SUP 4: 170.27 Low May 21

Bund futures are weaker and remain below recent highs. The current pullback is still considered corrective however there is scope for a deeper pullback. Price is back below the 20-day EMA and attention turns to support at 171.37, Jun 3 low and 170.99, the Mar 31 low. A break of the latter would strengthen a bearish case. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 173.16, Jun 11 high.

BOBL TECHS: (U1) Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 134.758 1.382 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 134.663 1.236 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 134.510 1.00 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 134.390 High Jun 15
• PRICE: 134.090 @ 05:04 BST Jun 17
• SUP 1: 133.970 Low Jun 2
• SUP 2: 133.860 Low May 28 and 31 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 133.690 Low May 24
• SUP 4: 133.450 Low May 20 and the bear trigger

Bobl futures maintain a softer tone and price remains below recent highs. The recent pullback is still considered corrective however there is scope for further short-term weakness. Price is back below the 20-day EMA and attention turns to support at 133.860, the May 28 and 31 low. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish case. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 134.510, a Fibonacci projection and the Jun 11 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U1) Trading At Recent Lows

• RES 4: 112.235 2.00 proj of the May 24 - 27 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 112.213 1.764 proj of the May 24 - 27 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 112.216 1.618 proj of the May 24 - 27 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 112.210 High Jun 11
• PRICE: 112.160 @ 05:16 BST Jun 17
• SUP 1: 112.150 Low Jun 16 and Between Jun 4 - 8
• SUP 2: 112.145 Low Jun 3
• SUP 3: 112.135 Low May 27, 28 and 31 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: 112.120 Low May 17

Schatz futures are trading at recent lows and remain below the Jun 11 high of 112.210. Attention turns to support at 112.135, the May 27, 28 and 31 lows. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish case and expose the May low of 112.120. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 112.210, Jun 11 high where a break is required to confirm a bullish price structure and resume the recent uptrend.

GILT TECHS: (U1) Monitoring Support

• RES 4: 129.19 1.382 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 3: 128.92 1.236 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 2: 128.50 1.00 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 1: 128.39 High Jun 11
• PRICE: 127.79 @ Close Jun 16
• SUP 1: 127.34 Low Jun 10
• SUP 2: 127.13 Low Jun 8
• SUP 3: 126.70 Low Jun 3 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: 126.55 Low May 21

Last week Gilt futures cleared 127.74/85, Apr 20 and May 7, 26 highs respectively and a key resistance zone. The move through 127.74 confirms a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, highlighting a bull theme. This week's pullback is still considered a correction with initial support seen at 127.34, Jun 10 low. Key short-term trend support has been defined at 126.70, Jun 3 low and a bullish theme remains in place while this level holds.

BTP TECHS: (U1) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 153.82 High Feb 12 (cont)
• RES 3: 153.40 1.236 proj of the May 19 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 152.66 1.00 proj of the May 19 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 152.47 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 151.90 @ Close Jun 16
• SUP 1: 150.75 Low Jun 10
• SUP 2: 150.11 Low Low Jun 8 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 149.53 Low May 28
• SUP 4: 148.80 Low May 25

BTP futures remain in their current bullish cycle following the reversal from the 147.00 low on Mar 19 and last week's gains. With bulls in control and momentum still positive although overbought, attention is on 152.66 next, a Fibonacci projection. The contract is also approaching the Feb high of 153.82. On the downside, firm support has been defined at 150.11, Jun 8 low. Initial firm support lies at 150.75, Jun 10 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (M1) Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 4290.00 High Jan 14, 2008
• RES 3: 4265.00 High Jan 15, 2008
• RES 2: 4241.15 Bull channel top drawn off the Feb 26 low
• RES 1: 4159.00/75.00 High Jun 16 / Low Nov 26, 2007 (cont)
• PRICE: 4137.00 @ 05:38 BST Jun 17
• SUP 1: 4080.57/ 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4016.00 Low May 27
• SUP 3: 3994.72 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 3981.02 Channel base from the Feb 26 low

EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher once again yesterday as the contract extends its climb and maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Price however has since pulled back. Dips though are considered corrective. The focus remains on 4175.00, the Nov 26 2008 low. On the downside, firm trend support is unchanged at 3844.00, May 13 low. Initial support lies at 4080.57, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (U1): Correcting

• RES 4: 4344.98 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 4300.00 Round Number Resistance
• RES 2: 4264.41 1.618 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing
• RES 1: 4258.25 High Jun 15
• PRICE: 4199.50 @ 06:59 BST Jun 17
• SUP 1: 4155.50 Low Jun 3
• SUP 2: 4139.35/4046.00 50-day EMA / Low May 19
• SUP 3: 4020.20 Low May 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 4005.50 Low Apr 5

S&P E-minis maintain a bullish tone however the recent pullback suggests the contract has entered a corrective cycle. A deeper pullback would open 1.4155.50, the Jun 3 low and the 50-day EMA at 4139.35. The EMA represents a key support level. A clear break of the average is required to signal potential for a deeper retracement. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 4258.25, Jun 15 high and marks the bull trigger.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q1) Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: $76.97 1.23 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 3: $75.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $75.60 - High Apr 25, 2019 (cont)
• RES 1: $74.96 - High Jun 16
• PRICE: $74.07 @ 07:07 BST Jun 17
• SUP 1: $72.79 - Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: $71.18 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $69.90 - High May 18 and the recent break out level
• SUP 4: $66.39/64.50 - Low May 24 / Low May 21 and key support

Brent crude futures traded higher again yesterday, extending the uptrend. The $72.00 handle was cleared last week and the price has also cleared the $74.00 mark. Attention turns to $75.60 next, Apr 25, 2019 high. Moving average studies remain bullish too, reinforcing current conditions. Weakness through $64.50, May 21 low is required to highlight a key short-term top. Initial firm support is at $71.18, 20-day EMA ahead of $69.90, May 18 high.

WTI TECHS: (N1) Still Heading North

• RES 4: $74.47 - 3.382 proj of Mar 23 - 30 - Apr 5 price swing
• RES 3: $74.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $73.20 - 3.236 proj of Mar 23 - 30 - Apr 5 price swing
• RES 1: $72.99 - High Jun 16
• PRICE: $71.86 @ 07:11 BST Jun 17
• SUP 1: $70.65 - Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: $68.80 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $67.02 - High May 18
• SUP 4: $63.63/61.56 - Low May 24 / Low May 21

WTI crude futures remain bullish and the contract traded higher once again yesterday. The psychological $70.00 handle has recently been cleared. The break reinforces current trend conditions and the focus is on $73.20 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key trend support has been defined at $61.56, May 21 low. A break is required to suggest a key short-term top. Firm support is seen at $68.80, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Bearish Cycle Confirmed

• RES 4: $1927.7 - High Jan 7
• RES 3: $1903.8/16.6 - High Jun 8 / High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $1877.7 - High Jun 14
• RES 1: $1863.3 - High Jun 16
• PRICE: $1813.6 07:11 BST Jun 17
• SUP 1: $1803.9 - Low Jun 16
• SUP 2: $1796.8 - 50% retracement of the Mar 8 - Jun 1 rally
• SUP 3: $1768.5 - 61.8% retracement of the MAr 8 - Jun 1 rally
• SUP 4: $1756.2 - Low Apr 29

Gold traded sharply lower yesterday reinforcing the current bearish cycle. The break lower has resulted in a clear breach of the 50-day EMA signalling scope for a deeper pullback towards $1796.8 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, yesterday's high of $1863.3, Jun 16 high marks initial resistance. A break would ease the current bearish pressure. Key trend resistance has been defined at $1916.6, Jun 1 high.

SILVER TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: $28.753 - High May 18 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $28.556 - High Jun 1
• RES 2: $28.267 - High Jun 11
• RES 1: $27.831 - High Jun 16
• PRICE: $26.822 @ 09:31 BST Jun 17
• SUP 1: $26.635 - Low Jun 16
• SUP 2: $26.267 - 50% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 18 rally
• SUP 3: $26.093 - Low May 4
• SUP 4: $25.718 - Low Apr 29

Silver is weaker following yesterday's sharp sell-off that resulted in the metal trading below $27.040, Jun 3 low. Furthermore, price has also breached the 50-day EMA reinforcing the developing bearish theme. Further weakness would signal scope for a move towards $26.267, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, Initial resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $27.831 ahead of the firmer near-term level at $28.285.