MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR/CHF Trading Just Ahead of Major Support

Price Signal Summary – EURCHF Trading Just Ahead of Major Support

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis outlook remains bullish and futures remain above recent lows. Another all-time high print on Nov 5 confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and the focus is on 4717.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. EUROSTOXX 50 futures uptrend remains intact and the contract continues to trade higher, reinforcing bullish conditions.
• In FX, EUR/USD remains offered and continues to trade lower. Today's price action has resulted in a probe of key support at 1.1300, the base of a bear channel drawn from the Jun 1 high. The short-term outlook for GBP/USD remains bearish. The recent breach of 1.3412, Sep 29 low confirms a resumption of the current bear trend, paving the way for an extension lower short-term. EURCHF is trading just ahead of a major support at 1.0505, the May 14, 2020 low. A break would expose the cross to a deeper sell-off below the 1.0500 handle.
• On the commodity front, Gold rallied sharply higher last week resulting in a clear break of resistance at $1834.0, Sep 3 high. The breach of this hurdle reinforces current bullish conditions and paves the way for further strength near-term. WTI futures remain below recent highs and above support. Key resistance and the bull trigger is $85.41, Oct 25 high.
• In the FI space, Bund futures have established a short-term range and are consolidating. This activity appears to be a bull flag. The current uptrend remains intact. The recent breach of 169.83, Oct 27 high and clearance of the 50-day EMA signals scope for a stronger short-term bounce. The S/T outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and the recent pullback is considered corrective. A double bottom reversal confirmed on Oct 27 and a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows highlights an uptrend.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Probes The Bear Channel Base

• RES 4: 1.17155 / High Sep 22
• RES 3: 1.1640/92 Bear channel top from Jun 1 high / High Oct 28
• RES 2: 1.1514/1608 Low Nov 5 / High Nov 9
• RES 1: 1.1386 High Nov 16
• PRICE: 1.1300 @ 06:01 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 1.1264 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.1222 1.618 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1185 Low Jul 1, 2020
• SUP 4: 1.1128 1.764 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing

EURUSD remains offered and continues to trade lower. Today's price action has resulted in a probe of key support at 1.1300, the base of a bear channel drawn from the Jun 1 high. A clear breach of this area would reinforce current conditions and signal scope for weakness towards 1.1222, a Fibonacci retracement. Any near-term base building would signal a possible reversal from the channel base. Initial resistance is at 1.1386, yesterday's high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 1.3913 High Sep 14 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3835 High Oct 20
• RES 2: 1.3640 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3473/3607 High Nov 16 / High Nov 9 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.3458 @ 07:53 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 1.3353 Low Nov 12
• SUP 2: 1.3334 1.00 proj of the Sep 14 - 29 - Oct 20 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.3304 Low Dec 22, 2020
• SUP 4: 1.3216 1.236 proj of the Sep 14 - 29 - Oct 20 price swing

GBPUSD continues to consolidate. The short-term outlook remains bearish though. The recent breach of 1.3412, Sep 29 low confirms a resumption of the current bear trend, paving the way for an extension lower short-term. Moving average studies are in a bear mode and this reinforces current conditions. The focus is on 1.3334 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance has been defined at 1.3607, Nov 9 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Trades Below Key Support

• RES 4: 0.8595/98 High Nov 5 / 76.4% of the Sep 29 - Oct 26 sell-off
• RES 3: 0.8538/74 High Nov 15 / High Nov 11
• RES 2: 0.8504 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8463 - Nov 3 low
• PRICE: 0.8418 @ 09:32 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 0.8390 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.8356 Low Feb 26, 2020
• SUP 3: 0.8339 Low Feb 25, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.8282/77 Low Feb 18, 2020 / Low Dec 13, 2019

EURGBP remains under pressure. The cross has failed to hold onto recent highs and has traded sharply lower this week. This morning's sell-off has resulted in a print below key support at 0.8403, Oct 26 low. The break reinforces bearish conditions and confirms a resumption of the broader downtrend. This has opened 0.8356 next, the Feb 26, 2020 low. Initial resistance is seen at 0.8463.

USDJPY TECHS: Clears Key Resistance

• RES 4: 116.87 High Jan 1, 2017
• RES 3: 116.09 1.764 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 price swing
• RES 2: 115.51 High Mar 10, 2017
• RES 1: 114.99 1.50 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 price swing
• PRICE: 114.84 @ 06:35 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 113.76 Low Nov 12 / 15
• SUP 2: 112.73/61 Low Nov 9 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 112.08 High Sep 30 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 4: 111.51 Low Oct 8

USDJPY rallied yesterday and in the process has breached resistance at 114.70, the Oct 20 high. The break higher confirms a resumption of the underlying uptrend and paves the way for an extension. This opens 115.51 next, the Mar 10, 2017 high. A strong reversal recently has defined key short-term support at 112.73, Nov 9 low where a break is required to suggest a top and a short-term reversal.

EURJPY TECHS: Fresh Lows

• RES 4: 133.76 High Jun 10
• RES 3: 132.92/133.48 High Oct 29 / High Oct 20
• RES 2: 132.56 High Nov 4
• RES 1: 130.83/131.03 50-day EMA / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 129.81 @ 06:40 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 129.42 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 129.24 76.4% retracement of the Sep 22 - Oct 20 rally
• SUP 3: 128.94 Low Oct 8
• SUP 4: 128.33 Low Oct 6

EURJPY remains bearish and the cross has traded lower again today, extending the move below its 50- and 20-day EMAs - the recent breach of these averages highlights a bearish theme. 130.05, 61.8% of the Sep 22 - Oct 20 rally has been cleared. This opens 129.24, the 76.4% retracement. Resistance is at 130.83, the 50-day EMA and 131.03, the 20-day EMA. A break of this zone is required to suggest a reversal.

AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching Support At Its Channel Base

• RES 4: 0.7599 High Jul 6
• RES 3: 0.7541/57 200-dma / 50.0% of the Feb - Aug sell-off
• RES 2: 0.7432/7471 High Nov 9 / High Nov 4
• RES 1: 0.7371 High Nov 15
• PRICE: 0.7298 @ 06:47 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 0.7261 76.4% retracement of the Sep 29 - Oct 28 rally
• SUP 2: 0.7250 Bull channel base drawn from the Aug 20 low
• SUP 3: 0.7226 Low Oct 6
• SUP 4: 0.7170 Low Sep 29

The AUDUSD short-term outlook remains bearish. The pair has traded just short of 0.7261, a Fibonacci retracement. A firm support lies just below, at 0.7250, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Aug 20 low. The recent move lower is considered corrective. A channel breakout though would alter the picture. Resistance to watch is 0.7371, Nov 15 high. A break would ease bearish pressure.

USDCAD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.2775 High Sep 29
• RES 3: 1.2739 High Oct 1
• RES 2: 1.2664 61.8.0% retracement of the Sep 20 - Oct 21 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.2605 High Nov 12
• PRICE: 1.2557 @ 06:51 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 1.2493/2387 Low Nov 16 / 10
• SUP 2: 1.2288 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2253 Low Jun 23
• SUP 4: 1.2229 76.4% retracement of the Jun - Aug rally

USDCAD conditions remain bullish and the pair is trading near recent highs. Recent gains have resulted in a high of 1.2605 and the pair has probed the Oct 8 high of 1.2562 and the 50% retracement of the Sep 20 - Oct 21 sell-off at 1.2592. The move higher has opened 1.2664 next, the 61.8% retracement. Further out, there is scope for a climb towards the October high of 1.2739. Initial firm support has been defined at 1.2387, Nov 10 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z1) Bull Flag Formation

• RES 4: 172.12 High Sep 14
• RES 3: 171.95 61.8% retracement of the Aug - Nov sell-off
• RES 2: 171.72 High Sep 23
• RES 1: 171.44 High Nov 9 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 170.67 @ 05:02 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 170.06 Low Nov 5
• SUP 2: 168.98 Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 167.69 Low Nov 1 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 167.52 Low Mar 19 2020 (cont)

Bund futures have established a short-term range and are consolidating. This activity appears to be a bull flag. The current uptrend remains intact. The recent breach of 169.83, Oct 27 high and clearance of the 50-day EMA signals scope for a stronger short-term bounce. 171.14, 50.0% of the Aug - Nov sell-off has been breached and attention is on 171.95, the 76.4% level. On the downside, initial support to watch is unchanged at 170.06.

BOBL TECHS: (Z1) Consolidating In A Range

• RES 4: 135.660 High Sep 9
• RES 3: 135.540 High Sep 21 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 135.380 High Sep 23
• RES 1: 135.320 High Nov 15
• PRICE: 135.020 @ 05:13 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 134.700/320 Low Nov 11 / Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: 133.900/690 Low Nov 2
• SUP 3: 133.340 Low Mar 19 and key medium-term support (cont)
• SUP 4: 133.308 1.764 proj of the Oct 4 - 13 - 14 price swing

Bobl futures continue to trade in a range. The S/T outlook remains bullish and attention is on resistance at 135.20, Sep 17 low and the Oct 4 plus Nov 5 high that has been probed. A clear break would open 135.540, Sep 21 high and confirm an extension of the rally that started Oct 29. Initial firm support lies at 134.320, Nov 3 low. A breach would sour the current positive tone and instead signal a potential resumption of the broader downtrend.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z1) Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 112.475 High Nov 5 2020 (cont)
• RES 3: 112.450 High Dec 11 2020 (cont)
• RES 2: 112.415 High Aug 5 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 1: 112.410 High Nov 15
• PRICE: 112.355 @ 05:21 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 112.220 50-day EMA and key near-term support
• SUP 2: 112.100 Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 112.050 Low Nov 2
• SUP 4: 111.945 Low Oct 28 and major support

Schatz futures remain in a short-term bull cycle. Recent gains and Monday's fresh high reinforces this. Resistance at 112.290, Sep 20 high has been breached and the break paves the way for strength towards 112.415 next, Aug 5 high (cont). A break of 112.415 would complete a 100.0% retracement of the Aug -Sep sell-off and open 112.450, Dec 11 2020 high (cont). 112.220, the 50-day EMA marks support.

GILT TECHS: (Z1) Doji Candle Pattern

• RES 4: 128.18 High Sep 10 and 14
• RES 3: 127.95 76.4% retracement of the Aug - Oct downleg
• RES 2: 127.69 High Sep 21
• RES 1: 126.82/127.29 High Nov 15 / High Nov 9
• PRICE: 125.81 @ Close Nov 16
• SUP 1: 125.48 Low Nov 16
• SUP 2: 124.79/25 Low Nov 4 / Low Nov 1
• SUP 3: 123.43 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 123.16 Low Feb 27, 2019 (cont)

The S/T outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and the recent pullback is considered corrective. A double bottom reversal confirmed on Oct 27 and a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows highlights an uptrend. Attention is on 127.69 next, Sep 21 high. Note, yesterday's candle pattern is a doji and potentially an early bullish reversal signal that would highlight the end of the recent pullback. A key support lies at 124.25, Nov 1 low.

BTP TECHS: (Z1) Bull Cycle Remains Intact

• RES 4: 155.14 High Aug 31
• RES 3: 154.64 High Sep 22 / 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 153.59 High Sep 24
• RES 1: 153.08 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 151.54 @ Close Nov 16
• SUP 1: 150.72 Nov 12 low
• SUP 2: 149.89 Nov 3 low
• SUP 3: 148.14 Low Nov 2
• SUP 4: 147.12 Low Nov 1 and the bear trigger

BTP futures outlook is unchanged and remains bullish despite the most recent pullback. Recent gains confirmed a short-term bull cycle and last week's breach of 152.54, Oct 14 high strengthens this short-term condition. The break opens 153.59 next, Sep 24 high. Initial firm support is seen at 149.89, Nov 3 low where a break would undermine the positive theme. Key support has been defined at 147.12, Nov 1 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (Z1) Extends Gains

• RES 4: 4498.00 High Dec 27, 2007 (cont)
• RES 3: 4448.00 High Jan 2, 2008 (cont)
• RES 2: 4420.80 1.382 proj of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 - Oct 6 price swing
• RES 1: 4403.00 High Nov 16
• PRICE: 4393.00 @ 05:47 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 4289.60/4223.00 20-day EMA / High Sep 6
• SUP 2: 4208.10 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4119.00 Low Oct 18
• SUP 4: 4004.00 / 3949.50 Low Oct 12 / Low Oct 6 and bear trigger

EUROSTOXX 50 futures uptrend remains intact and the contract continues to trade higher, reinforcing bullish conditions. The recent breach of 4223.00, Sep 6 high and a former bull trigger highlighted an important bullish technical break and moving average signals continue to point north. The psychological 4400.00 handle has been tested and the focus is on 4420.80 next, a Fibonacci projection. The 50-day EMA, at 4208.10, remains a key support.

E-MINI S&P (Z1): Approaching The Recent High

• RES 4: 4800.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4783.40 1.764 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - Aug 19 price swing
• RES 2: 4746.68 1.618 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - Aug 19 price swing
• RES 1: 4717.00 1.50 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - Aug 19 price swing
• PRICE: 4695.50 @ 07:03 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 4615.28 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4543.75 Low Oct 27
• SUP 3: 4527.47/ 4472.00 50-day EMA / High Sep 27
• SUP 4: 4317.25/4260.00 Low Oct 12 / Low Oct 1 and the bear trigger

S&P E-minis outlook remains bullish and futures remain above recent lows. Another all-time high print on Nov 5 confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and the focus is on 4717.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. Trend signals such as moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up, reinforcing current conditions and market sentiment. The 50-day EMA at 4527.47 continues to represent the key support handle.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F2) Watching Support

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $87.73 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 2: $87.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $85.77 - High Oct 25 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $81.96 @ 06:58 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: $80.20/17 - Low Nov 4 and key support / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $78.42 - Low Oct 7
• SUP 3: $75.80 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $74.70 - High Sep 15

Brent futures are unchanged and remain below recent highs. Key resistance is at $85.77, Oct 25 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the underlying uptrend and resume the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This would open $87.73, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support to watch is unchanged at $80.20 Nov 4 low where a break would instead reverse the trend.

WTI TECHS: (Z1) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: $88.96 - 1.382 proj of the Sep 21 - Oct 6 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: $87.45 - 1.236 proj of the Sep 21 - Oct 6 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: $86.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $84.97/85.41 - High Nov 10 / High Oct 25 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $80.23 @ 07:08 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: $78.37/25 - 50-day EMA / Low Nov 4 and key support
• SUP 2: $74.67 - Low Oct 7 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $72.82 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $71.29 - Low Sep 23

WTI futures remain below recent highs and above support. Key resistance and the bull trigger is $85.41, Oct 25 high. A break of this hurdle is required to confirm a resumption of the uptrend and resume the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This would open $87.45, a Fibonacci projection. For bears. key short-term support has been defined at $78.25 Nov 4 low. A break would be bearish.

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Focus

• RES 4: $1916.6 - High Jun 1 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $1909.7 - High Jun 3
• RES 2: $1903.8 - High Jun 8
• RES 1: $1877.7 - High Jun 14
• PRICE: $1855.3 @ 07:14 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: $1822.4/1819.1 - Low Nov 10 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1799.4/1759.0 - 50-day EMA / Low Nov 3 and a key support
• SUP 3: $1746.0 - Low Oct 6
• SUP 4: $1721.7 - Low Sep 29 and the bear trigger

Gold rallied sharply higher last week resulting in a clear break of resistance at $1834.0, Sep 3 high. The breach of this hurdle reinforces current bullish conditions and paves the way for further strength near-term. Note too that gold has also breached $1863.3, 76.4% of the Jun - Aug sell-off. The focus is on $1877.7 next, Jun 14 high and $1903.8, the Jun 8 high. Support is seen at $1822.4, the Nov 10 low.

SILVER TECHS: Looking For An Extension Higher

• RES 4: $26.778 - High Jul 6
• RES 3: $26.467 - High Jul 14
• RES 2: $26.002 - High Aug 4 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $25.510 - High Aug 5
• PRICE: $25.020 @ 07:22 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: $23.961/23.020 - 50-day EMA / Low Nov 3 and a key support
• SUP 2: $22.213 - Low Oct 6
• SUP 3: $21.423 - Low Sep 29 and key support
• SUP 4: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb '21 rally

Silver is trading near recent highs. Recent price action had defined key short-term directional triggers at; $23.020, Nov 3 low and $24.828, Oct 22 high. The $24.828 resistance has been cleared and the break confirms a resumption of the current bull cycle. This opens $26.002 next, Aug 4 high. For bears, weakness through $23.020 is required to instead expose $22.213, Oct 6 low.