MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR/JPY Makes Significant Bullish Break

Price Signal Summary – EUR/JPY Makes Significant Bullish Break

• Bearish conditions in the E-mini S&P contract remain intact and price is trading closer to its latest lows. Recent weakness resulted in a break of support at the 20-day EMA, following a failure at the top of the bull channel drawn from the Mar 13 low. A bearish threat in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains present following the reversal from 4513.00, Jul 31 high. This week’s gains appear to be a correction. Tuesday’s move lower reinforced the current condition and the recent breach of the 20- and 50-day EMAs.
• Bullish conditions in EURJPY strengthened Thursday. Key resistance at 158.05, the Jul 21 high, has given way, putting the cross at levels not seen since 2008. The break confirms a continuation of the medium-term uptrend and opens 159.92, a Fibonacci projection point ahead of the 160.00 psychological level. Short-term AUDUSD trend conditions remain bearish and yesterday’s reversal from the day high, reinforces this theme. Price is trading closer to its recent lows and remains below the 20- and 50-day EMAs - the recent breach of these averages strengthened a bearish theme.
• Gold remains bearish and the yellow metal traded lower yesterday, confirming an extension of the bear cycle that started Jul 20. $1924.5, the Jul 11 low, has been breached. The move lower signals potential for weakness towards the key support at $1893.1. The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and yesterday’s pullback is considered corrective. This week’s gains confirm a resumption of the bull cycle. Price has breached resistance at $83.59, the Nov 7 2022 high. The break strengthens a bullish condition and paves the way for a climb towards $87.43
• Bund futures remain below Tuesday’s high of 133.45 and the contract has pierced initial support at 131.82, the Aug 8 low. A clear break of this support would signal scope for a deeper pullback and attention would turn to a key near-term support at 131.12. A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact and the recent recovery appears to be a correction. The contract has recently breached 96.11, the Jul 21 low, and cleared the 20-day EMA, reinforcing a bearish theme.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.1313 High Feb 24 2022
• RES 3: 1.1276 High Jul 18 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.1150/1229 High Jul 27 / 20
• RES 1: 1.1065 High Aug 10
• PRICE: 1.0985 @ 05:30 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: 1.0912 Low Aug 3 and the near-term bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.0867 Low Jul 7
• SUP 3: 1.0834 Low Jul 6 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0804 Low Jun 15

EURUSD broke higher yesterday but failed to hold on to the days high and remains inside its recent range. A bearish theme is intact following a recent break of trendline support drawn from the May 31 low and a breach of the 50-day EMA. A resumption of weakness would expose 1.0912, the Aug 3 low and bear trigger. A break of this level would open 1.0834, the Jul 6 low. Initial resistance is seen at 1.1065, Aug 10 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 1.3142 High Jul 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.3045 High Jul 19
• RES 2: 1.2887/2996 High Jul 28 / 27 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.2819 High Aug 10
• PRICE: 1.2683 @ 05:48 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: 1.2621 Low Aug 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2591 Low Jun 29
• SUP 3: 1.2480 1.50 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.2439 1.618 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing

GBPUSD failed to hold on to its rally yesterday and the reversal lower reinforces a bearish theme. The recent break of a key support highlighted by the 50-day EMA, at 1.2745 today, and the base of a bull channel drawn from the Mar 8 low - currently at 1.2800, signals potential for a continuation lower near-term. The focus is on 1.2591, the Jun 29 low and the next important support. First resistance is at 1.2819, the Aug 10 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Clears Resistance

• RES 4: 0.8749 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 19 downleg
• RES 3: 0.8719 High May 23 and a congestion high
• RES 2: 0.8671/8701 100-dma / High Jul 19
• RES 1: 0.8669 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.8663 @ 06:10 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: 0.8590/44 Low Aug 9 / Low Jul 27
• SUP 2: 0.8523 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8504 Low Jul 11 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 29 2022

EURGBP returned higher again Thursday, resulting in a breach of resistance at 0.8656, the Aug 3 high. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards the key short-term resistance at 0.8701, the Jul 19 high. A break of this level would be a bullish development. From a trend perspective, MA studies highlight a dominant downtrend. Initial support to watch lies at 0.8590, the Aug 9 low, where a breach would reinstate a bearish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Approaching The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 146.38 1.764 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 145.69 1.618 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 145.07 High Jun 30 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 144.90 Intraday high
• PRICE: 144.73 @ 06:23 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: 142.21/141.07 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 138.07 Low Jul 28
• SUP 3: 137.25 Low Jul 14 and key support
• SUP 4: 136.31 Low May 17

An uptrend in USDJPY remains intact and the pair continues to appreciate. Resistance at 144.20, the Jul 7 high, gave way yesterday and this strengthens a bullish theme. The focus is on key resistance and the bull trigger at 145.07, the Jun 30 high. MA studies are in a bull mode condition, highlighting an uptrend. A break of 145.07 would confirm a resumption of the trend. Initial support to watch lies at 142.21, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 160.66 2.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 160.00 Psychological handle
• RES 2: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 159.21 High Aug 10
• PRICE: 159.02 @ 06:40 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: 156.52/155.54 20-day EMA / Low Aug 3
• SUP 2: 154.82 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 151.42 Low Jul 28 and key support
• SUP 4: 150.16 38.2% retracement of the Jan 3 - Jul 21 bull cycle

Bullish conditions in EURJPY strengthened Thursday. Key resistance at 158.05, the Jul 21 high, has given way, putting the cross at levels not seen since 2008. The break confirms a continuation of the medium-term uptrend and opens 159.92, a Fibonacci projection point ahead of the 160.00 psychological level. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition, reflecting a rising trend. Initial firm support lies at 156.52, the 50-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.6847 High Jul 20
• RES 3: 0.6821 High Jul 27
• RES 2: 0.6739 High Jul 31
• RES 1: 0.6616/6674 High Aug 10 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6519 @ 06:54 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: 0.6497 Low Aug 8
• SUP 2: 0.6485 Low Jun 1
• SUP 3: 0.6458 Low May 31 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6403 76.4% retracement of the Oct 13 ‘22 - Feb 2 bull leg

Short-term AUDUSD trend conditions remain bearish and yesterday’s reversal from the day high, reinforces this theme. Price is trading closer to its recent lows and remains below the 20- and 50-day EMAs - the recent breach of these averages strengthened a bearish theme. A continuation lower would open 0.6458, the May 31 low and a bear trigger. On the upside, initial resistance is at 0.6616, Thursday’s high.

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Direction Remains Up

• RES 4: 1.3655 High May 26 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3585 High Jun 1
• RES 2: 1.3523 76.4% retracement of the May 26 - Jul 14 downleg
• RES 1: 1.3502 High Aug 8
• PRICE: 1.3438 @ 07:58 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: 1.3364 Low Aug 8
• SUP 2: 1.3310 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3266 Low Aug 2
• SUP 4: 1.3151 Low Jul 31

USDCAD short-term conditions remain bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. This week’s gains have resulted in a breach of key short-term resistance at 1.3387, the Jul 7 high. The break strengthens bullish conditions and paves the way for a climb towards 1.3523, a Fibonacci retracement point. Key support has been defined at 1.3093, the Jul 14 low. Initial firm support to watch is 1.3310, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Watching Support

• RES 4: 135.00 High Jun 27 and key resistance
• RES 3: 134.88 High Jul 19
• RES 2: 134.01 High Jul 24
• RES 1: 132.71/133.45 20-day EMA / High Aug 8
• PRICE: 131.96 @ 07:46 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: 131.75/12 Intraday low / Low Aug 4
• SUP 2: 130.99 Low Jul 12
• SUP 3: 130.60 Low Jul 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: 130.00 Psychological round number

Bund futures remain below Tuesday’s high of 133.45 and the contract has pierced initial support at 131.82, the Aug 8 low. A clear break of this support would signal scope for a deeper pullback and attention would turn to a key near-term support at 131.12, the Aug 4 low, where a break would open 130.60, the Jul 10 low. Key resistance is at 133.45, the Aug 8 high. Clearance of this level would be seen as a bullish development.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Bearish Threat

• RES 4: 116.990 High Jun 12 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 116.860 High Jun 13
• RES 2: 116.600 High Jul 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 116.340 High Aug 8
• PRICE: 115.600 @ 05:19 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: 115.230 Low Jul 13 and Aug 4
• SUP 2: 115.034 76.4% retracement of the Jul 6 - 19 rally
• SUP 3: 114.730 Low Jul 12
• SUP 4: 114.550 Low Jul 7 and a key support

Bobl futures traded higher Tuesday, however, the contract has since pulled back. The move lower highlights a potential bearish threat once again and a continuation lower would expose support at 115.230, the Jul 13 and Aug 4 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and open 115.034, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, clearance of 116.340, the Aug 8 high, is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Pullback Appears To Be A Correction - For Now

• RES 4: 105.495 High Jun 13
• RES 3: 105.376 61.8% retracement June-July downleg
• RES 2: 105.350 100-dma (cont)
• RES 1: 105.295 High Aug 8
• PRICE: 105.050 @ 05:45 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: 105.045/104.930 20-day EMA / Low Aug 4
• SUP 2: 104.805 Low Jul 17
• SUP 3: 104.620/104.570 Low Jul 11 / 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 104.470 2.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

A short-term uptrend in Schatz futures remains in place for now, despite the latest pullback. Earlier this week, the contract breached resistance at 105.185, the Jul 19 high, to confirm a resumption of the bull leg that started Jul 6. The break higher signals scope for gains towards 105.376, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm support to watch is seen at 104.930, the Aug 4 low. A break would signal a possible reversal.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 97.91 38.2% retracement of the Mar - Jul downleg (cont)
• RES 3: 97.84 High Jul 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 96.19/81 High Jul 31 / 27
• RES 1: 95.82 High Aug 10
• PRICE: 95.32 @ Close Aug 10
• SUP 1: 94.67/93.70 Low Aug 8 / 4
• SUP 2: 93.45 76.4% retracement of the Jul 7 - 19 rally
• SUP 3: 92.82 Low Jul 12
• SUP 4: 92.09 Low Jul 7 and a key support

A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact and the recent recovery appears to be a correction. The contract has recently breached 96.11, the Jul 21 low, and cleared the 20-day EMA, reinforcing a bearish theme. The move lower signals scope for an extension towards 93.45 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 96.19, the Jul 31 high. A break would signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 3: 117.60 High Jun 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 116.86/117.48 High Jul 24 / 19
• RES 1: 116.14 High Aug 2
• PRICE: 115.51 @ Close Aug 10
• SUP 1: 113.81 Low Aug 4
• SUP 2: 112.95 Low Jul 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 112.48 Low May 29
• SUP 4: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support

A bearish condition in BTP futures remains intact following the reversal that started Jul 19. However, recent gains threaten this theme and the contract has breached the 20-day EMA. The average intersects at 115.25. A continuation higher would expose 116.14 next, the Aug 2 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 113.81, the Aug 4 low. Clearance of this level would be seen as a bearish development.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Short-Term Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 4539.20 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jul 3 - 7 price swing (cont)
• RES 3: 4515.00 High Nov / Dec 2007 (cont)
• RES 2: 4513.00 High Jul 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4424.00 High Aug 2
• PRICE: 4377.00 @ 06:30 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: 4276.00 Low Aug 8
• SUP 2: 4220.00 Low Jul 7 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 4177.40 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4122.00 Low Mar 28

A bearish threat in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains present following the reversal from 4513.00, Jul 31 high. This week’s gains appear to be a correction. Tuesday’s move lower reinforced the current condition and the recent breach of the 20- and 50-day EMAs, strengthens a bearish threat. Furthermore, key support at 4331.00, the Jul 26 low, has been cleared. This opens 4220.00, the Jul 7 low. Initial firm resistance is 4424.00, Aug 2 high.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Bearish Inside The Bull Channel

• RES 4: 4692.12 Bull channel top drawn from the Mar 13 low
• RES 3: 4670.58 2.00 proj of the Jun 26 - 20 - Jul 7 price swing
• RES 2: 4593.50/4634.50 High Aug 2 / Jul 27
• RES 1: 4560.75 High Aug 4
• PRICE: 4488.75 @ 06:51 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: 4473.50 Low Aug 10
• SUP 2: 4461.63 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4445.52 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 13 low
• SUP 4: 4411.25 Low Jul 10

Bearish conditions in the E-mini S&P contract remain intact and price is trading closer to its latest lows. Recent weakness resulted in a break of support at the 20-day EMA, following a failure at the top of the bull channel drawn from the Mar 13 low. This highlights a bearish development and the risk of an extension lower near-term. Further downside would open 4461.63, the 50-day EMA. Resistance to watch is 4560.75, the Aug 4 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V3) Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $92.10 - 1.50 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 18 price swing
• RES 3: $90.63 - High Nov 11 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $88.10 - High Aug 10
• PRICE: $86.30 @ 06:56 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: $82.36/80.43 - Low Aug 3 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $78.10 - Low Jul 18 and key support
• SUP 3: $74.78 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 4: $72.04 - Low Jun 28

Bullish conditions in Brent futures remain intact and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The move higher confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintained the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on the psychological $90.00 handle. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position reflecting current market sentiment. First key support lies at $82.36, the Aug 3 low.

WTI TECHS: (U3) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $87.43 - 1.382 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 17 price swing
• RES 2: $85.94 - High Aug 23 2022
• RES 1: $85.00 - Round number resistance
• PRICE: $82.76 @ 07:01 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: $78.69/76.53 - Aug 3 low / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $73.78 Low Jul 17
• SUP 3: $69.82/66.98 - Low Jul 3 / Low Jun 12 and key support
• SUP 4: $64.22 - Low May 4 and the bear trigger

The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and yesterday’s pullback is considered corrective. This week’s gains confirm a resumption of the bull cycle. Price has breached resistance at $83.59, the Nov 7 2022 high. The break strengthens a bullish condition and paves the way for a climb towards $87.43, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in bull-mode condition highlighting an uptrend. Initial firm support lies at $78.69, Aug 3 low.

GOLD TECHS: Heading South

• RES 4: $2022.9 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Jun 29 bear leg
• RES 3: $1998.1 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Jun 29 bear leg
• RES 2: $1972.4/1987.5 - High Jul 31 / High Jul 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $1945.9 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1917.0 @ 07:15 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: $1910.9 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $1902.8 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 3: $1893.1 - Jun 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15

Gold remains bearish and the yellow metal traded lower yesterday, confirming an extension of the bear cycle that started Jul 20. $1924.5, the Jul 11 low, has been breached. The move lower signals potential for weakness towards the key support at $1893.1, the Jun 29 low. A break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. Initial firm resistance to watch is $1945.9, the 50-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Theme Remains Intact

• RES 4: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022
• RES 3: $26.135 - High May 5 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $25.920 - High May 10
• RES 1: $23.764/25.267 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 20
• PRICE: $22.747 @ 07:20 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: $22.527 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 2: $22.111 - Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 bull leg
• SUP 4: $20.591 - Low Mar 13

Silver is consolidating. The metal maintains a bearish theme following this week’s extension of the current downward cycle. The continuation lower signals scope for a move towards $22.527 next, the Jul 6 low, and $22.111 further out, the Jun 23 low and a key support. Key resistance is at $25.267, the Jul 20 high. Initial resistance to watch is at $23.764, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level would signal a possible reversal.