MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR/JPY Studies in Bull Mode

Price Signal Summary – EUR/JPY Studies in Bull Mode

• The current trend condition in S&P E-minis is unchanged and remains bullish. Price has recently breached resistance at 4119.50, the Mar 6 high, reinforcing a positive theme. The move higher has also resulted in a break of 4148.48, 76.4% of the Feb 2 - Mar 13 downleg. Eurostoxx 50 futures remain in an uptrend and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Recent gains have strengthened the bullish significance of the break of 4268.00, the Mar 6 high and a former key resistance.
• The uptrend in EURUSD remains intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Last week’s gains resulted in the break of 1.1033, the Feb 2 high. This reinforced bullish conditions and more importantly, confirmed a resumption of the broader uptrend. EURGBP remains in a bull cycle and yesterday’s move lower is considered corrective. The cross has traded above 0.8851, a trendline drawn from the Feb 3 high and resistance at 0.8866, the Mar 23 high, has been pierced. The downtrend in USDCAD remains intact and last week’s extension lower confirmed a resumption of the trend. Support at 1.3407, the Apr 4 low has been cleared and this maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Support to watch is $1982.3, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced - a clear break would suggest scope for a deeper retracement and expose $1949.7, Apr 3 low. WTI futures remain in a bull cycle despite the latest pullback. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of resistance at $81.81, the Apr 4 high. This confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. Note that an important resistance at $83.04, the Jan 23 high, has also been breached.
• Bund futures started this week’s session on a bearish note - the cross traded lower Monday, extending the current bear cycle. The contract is through the 20-day EMA, at 135.51, and has breached key short-term support at 134.70, the Mar 31 low. A short-term bearish theme in Gilt futures remains in play and Monday’s move lower marks a bearish start to this week’s trading session. The contract has breached support at 102.74, the Mar 20 low and bear trigger.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
• RES 3: 1.1127 1.00 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1076 High Apr 1 2022 and Friday’s high
• RES 1: 1.1000 High Apr 17
• PRICE: 1.0935 @ 05:46 BST Apr 18
• SUP 1: 1.0909 Low Apr 17
• SUP 2: 1.0884 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0831 Low Apr 10
• SUP 4: 1.0790 50-day EMA

The uptrend in EURUSD remains intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Last week’s gains resulted in the break of 1.1033, the Feb 2 high. This reinforced bullish conditions and more importantly, confirmed a resumption of the broader uptrend that started Sep 28 2022. The focus is on 1.1127, a Fibonacci projection and 1.1185 further out, the Mar 31 2022 high. On the downside, key short-term support lies at the 20-day EMA, at 1.0884.

GBPUSD TECHS: Testing Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.2691 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.2667 High May 27 2022
• RES 2: 1.2599 High Jun 7 2022
• RES 1: 1.2438/2546 High Apr 17 / 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2384 @ 06:00 BST Apr 18
• SUP 1: 1.2353/45 Low Apr 17 / 10
• SUP 2: 1.2275 Low Apr 3
• SUP 3: 1.2251 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.2191 Low Mar 24

GBPUSD remains in an uptrend and the Friday / Monday pullback is - for now - considered corrective. The pair has pierced support at 1.2364, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper pullback. On the upside, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on Friday’s 1.2546 high where a break would resume the uptrend and open 1.2599, Jun 7 2022 high. Support below the 20-day EMA lies at 1.2345, the Apr 10 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 0.8925 High Mar 7
• RES 3: 0.8918 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8880 61.8 retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8872 High Apr 17
• PRICE: 0.8831 @ 06:26 BST Apr 18
• SUP 1: 0.8804 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8763/8729 Low Apr 11 / 4
• SUP 3: 0.8719 Low Mar 15 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.8712 61.8% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg

EURGBP remains in a bull cycle and yesterday’s move lower is considered corrective. The cross has traded above 0.8851, a trendline drawn from the Feb 3 high and resistance at 0.8866, the Mar 23 high, has been pierced. A clear break of these two levels would open 0.8880, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key support lies at 0.8719, the Mar 15 low. A break would be bearish. Initial firm support lies at 0.8804, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Trading Higher

• RES 4: 136.99 High Mar 10
• RES 3: 135.96 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg
• RES 2: 135.11 High Mar 15
• RES 1: 134.75 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg
• PRICE: 134.37 @ 06:41 BST Apr 18
• SUP 1: 132.96 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 132.02 Low Apr 13
• SUP 3: 131.53 Low Feb 2
• SUP 4: 130.64 Low Apr 5 and a key support

USDJPY continues to appreciate, extending the recovery off last week’s lows. Resistance at 134.05, the Apr 12 high has been topped. This signals potential for a continuation higher and the pair is approaching 134.75, a Fibonacci retracement point. The current bull cycle does appear to be a correction. However, a break of support at 132.02, the Apr 13 low, is required to signal a bearish reversal.

EURJPY TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 150.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 149.39 1.00 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 2: 148.40 High Oct 21 2022 and key resistance
• RES 1: 147.45 High Oct 31 and Monday's high
• PRICE: 147.04 @ 06:54 BST Apr 18
• SUP 1: 146.08/145.67 Low Apr 13 / High Mar 31
• SUP 2: 144.70 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 143.67 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 142.55 Low Apr 6

EURJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the cross is holding onto its latest gains. The recent breach of 145.67, Mar 31 high, strengthened bullish conditions and has paved the way for a climb towards 147.71 next, the Oct 31 2022 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition highlighting an uptrend. Key short-term support has been defined at 142.55, the Apr 6 low. Initial firm support lies at 144.70, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Remains Below The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 3: 0.6861 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 1: 0.6735/0.6806 50-day EMA / High Apr 14
• PRICE: 0.6728 @ 07:21 BST Apr 18
• SUP 1: 0.6681/6620 Low Apr 17 / 10
• SUP 2: 0.6590 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 0.6565/47 Low Mar 10 / 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.6500 Round number support

AUDUSD traded higher last week but has been unable to remain above the 50-day EMA, at 0.6735. A key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.6806, Friday’s high. A break would reinstate a bullish theme and open 0.6861, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch is 0.6620, Apr 10 low. Clearance of this level would be seen as a bearish development and leave the bear trigger at 0.6565 exposed, Mar 10 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Price Sequence

• RES 4: 1.3695 High Mar 28
• RES 3: 1.3617 High Mar 29
• RES 2: 1.3500/36 20- and 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3420/3448 Low Apr 17 / High Apr 13
• PRICE: 1.3375 @ 08:03 BST Apr 18
• SUP 1: 1.3302 Low Apr 14
• SUP 2: 1.3275 Low Feb 14
• SUP 3: 1.3262 Low Feb 2 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.3226 Low Nov 15 2022

The downtrend in USDCAD remains intact and last week’s extension lower confirmed a resumption of the trend. Support at 1.3407, the Apr 4 low has been cleared and this maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.3275 - mid-February lows and 1.3262, the Feb 2 low. Note that the RSI is close to flagging an oversold condition, for the first time in over 18 months. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3420, Monday’s high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 140.30 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 139.54 High Mar 24
• RES 2: 136.88/138.09 High Apr 11 / 6 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 135.51 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 133.78 @ 05:11 BST Apr 18
• SUP 1: 133.60 Low Apr 17
• SUP 2: 133.33 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 132.70 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 132.37 Low Mar 10

Bund futures started this week’s session on a bearish note - the cross traded lower Monday, extending the current bear cycle. The contract is through the 20-day EMA, at 135.51, and has breached key short-term support at 134.70, the Mar 31 low. The continuation lower has opened 132.70, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a move above 138.09, the Apr 6 high, is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme. Initial firm resistance is seen at 135.51.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 120.130 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 119.307 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - 31 downleg
• RES 2: 118.420/119.190 High Apr 11 / High Mar 27
• RES 1: 117.779 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 116.930 @ 05:22 BST Apr 18
• SUP 1: 116.840 Low Apr 17
• SUP 2: 116.370 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 116.125 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 115.700 Low Mar 10

Bobl futures traded lower again Monday and the outlook remains bearish. The contract has breached 117.200, the Mar 31 low. This reinforces the bearish theme and the focus is on 116.370, the Mar 15 low. A break of this level would open 116.125, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 119.190, the Mar 27 high and the trigger for a stronger short-term climb. Initial resistance is 117.779, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Clears Support

• RES 4: 106.695 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 106.315 High Mar 27
• RES 2: 106.190 High Apr 6 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 105.673/920 20-day EMA / High Apr 11
• PRICE: 105.365 @ 05:34 BST Apr 18
• SUP 1: 105.315 Low Apr 17
• SUP 2: 105.030 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 104.953 76.4% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 104.695 Low Mar 10

Schatz futures remain in a downtrend. The move lower Friday resulted in a break of support at 105.465, the Mar 31 low. The contract also traded lower Monday, extending the current bearish phase. 105.336, 61.8% of the Mar 9 - 20 rally, has been pierced. A clear break would open 105.030, Mar 15 low. On the upside, clearance of 106.190, Apr 6 high, is required to reinstate a bullish theme. Initial firm resistance is seen at 105.673, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Breaches Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 105.04 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - 31 downleg
• RES 3: 104.97 High Mar 6 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 104.16 High Apr 12
• RES 1: 102.74/103.40 Low Mar 31 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 101.70 @ Close Apr 17
• SUP 1: 101.12 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 20 rally
• SUP 2: 100.91 High Mar 9 and a gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 3: 100.06 Low Mar 9
• SUP 4: 99.55 Low Mar 8

A short-term bearish theme in Gilt futures remains in play and Monday’s move lower marks a bearish start to this week’s trading session. The contract has breached support at 102.74, the Mar 20 low and bear trigger. The break lower has also resulted in a move through 102.00 and this opens 101.12, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key resistance is seen at 104.97, the Apr 6 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 103.40, the 20-day EMA.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Heading South

• RES 4: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 3: 117.17 High Mar 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 115.92/116.97 High Apr 12 / 6
• RES 1: 114.77 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 113.49 @ Close Apr 17
• SUP 1: 113.44 Low Apr 17
• SUP 2: 113.22 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 112.89 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 4: 111.88 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally

BTP futures remain in a bear cycle. The contract has breached support at 114.04, the Mar 31 low, strengthening a bearish theme. Attention is on 113.22, the Mar 15 low and 112.89, a Fibonacci retracement level. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 114.77, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance is far off at 117.17, the Mar 24 high. A break above the 20-day EMA would highlight a potential bullish reversal.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 4520.00 High June 2001 (cont)
• RES 3: 4403.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• RES 2: 4381.50 High Jan 5 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4349.00 High Apr 17
• PRICE: 4323.00 @ 06:23 BST Apr 18
• SUP 1: 4270.00 Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 4230.20 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4165.00 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4034.00 Low Mar 24 and a key support

Eurostoxx 50 futures remain in an uptrend and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Recent gains have strengthened the bullish significance of the break of 4268.00, the Mar 6 high and a former key resistance. Sights are on 4381.50, the Jan 5 2022 high (cont). Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a broader uptrend. Initial firm support lies at 4230.20, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (M3): Eyeing Resistance

• RES 4: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 4223.00 High Feb 14
• RES 2: 4205.50 High Feb 16
• RES 1: 4189.00 High Apr 14
• PRICE: 4177.00 @ 06:48 BST Apr 18
• SUP 1: 4106.03 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4069.41 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3980.75 Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: 3937.00 Low Mar 24

The current trend condition in S&P E-minis is unchanged and remains bullish. Price has recently breached resistance at 4119.50, the Mar 6 high, reinforcing a positive theme. The move higher has also resulted in a break of 4148.48, 76.4% of the Feb 2 - Mar 13 downleg. This signals scope for a climb to 4205.50, the Feb 16 high ahead of 4244.00, the Feb 2 high and a key medium-term resistance. Firm support lies at 4069.41, the 50-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M3) Technicals Signals Remain Bullish

• RES 4: $90.46 - High Nov 15 2022
• RES 3: $90.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $88.35 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $87.49 - High Apr 12
• PRICE: $85.09 @ 06:51 BST Apr 18
• SUP 1: $83.50 - Low Apr 3 and gap high on the daily chart
• SUP 2: $79.95 - High Mar 31 and gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 3: $77.18 - Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: $74.39 - Low Mar 27

Brent futures remain in an uptrend following last week’s gains and the break of resistance at $86.44, the Apr 3 high. This confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend and signals scope for a climb towards $88.35, the Jan 23 high and a key resistance. On the downside, initial firm support has been defined at $83.50, the Apr 3 low and a gap high on the daily chart. Short-term pullbacks, if seen, would be considered corrective.

WTI TECHS: (K3) Bullish Despite The Latest Pullback

• RES 4: $89.23 - High Aug 25 2022
• RES 3: $87.48 - High Nov 7 2022
• RES 2: $85.01 - High Nov 14
• RES 1: $83.53 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $81.12 @ 06:56 BST Apr 18
• SUP 1: $79.00 - Low Apr 3 and gap high on the daily chart
• SUP 2: $75.72 - High Mar 31 and gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 3: $72.19 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: $69.13 - Low Mar 27

WTI futures remain in a bull cycle despite the latest pullback. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of resistance at $81.81, the Apr 4 high. This confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. Note that an important resistance at $83.04, the Jan 23 high, has also been breached. The focus is on $85.01, the Nov 14 high. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at $79.00, the Apr 3 low and the gap high on the daily chart.

GOLD TECHS: Watching Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: $2075.5 - All-Time High Aug 7 2020
• RES 3: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $2059.2 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 1: $2048.7 - High Apr 5
• PRICE: $1999.7 @ 07:15 BST Apr 18
• SUP 1: $1981.3 - Low Apr 17
• SUP 2: $1949.7 - Low Apr 3
• SUP 3: $1933.4 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Support to watch is $1982.3, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced - a clear break would suggest scope for a deeper retracement and expose $1949.7, Apr 3 low. On the upside, the short-term bull trigger has been defined at $2048.7, Apr 13 high. A break would resume the uptrend and open $2070.4, Mar 8 2022 high. This is just ahead of the all-time high of $2075.5.

SILVER TECHS: Pullback Appears To Be A Correction

• RES 4: $26.943 - High Mar 8 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 2: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $26.088 - High Apr 14
• PRICE: $25.102 @ 08:07 BST Apr 18
• SUP 1: $25.044 - Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: $24.305 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $23.310 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $22.828 - Low Mar 28

Silver remains in an uptrend and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. The recent break of resistance at $24.637, the Feb 2 high, confirmed a resumption of the bull trend that started early September 2022. The focus is on $26.222 next, the Apr 18 2022 high. On the downside, a key support is seen at $24.305, the 20-day EMA. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper (corrective) pullback.