MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR Signals Scope for Pullback
Price Signal Summary – EUR Signals Scope for Deeper Pullback
- A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest shallow pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains reinforce a bullish theme and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode setup, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded sharply higher last week resulting in a clear break of 5024.00, the Sep 3 high. This confirms a resumption of the bull leg that started Aug 5 and cancels a recent bearish theme.
- The short-term outlook in EURUSD remains bullish, however, this week’s move down highlights scope for a deeper corrective pullback. Support at the 50-day EMA of 1.1045 has cracked, and a clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. The trend condition in EURGBP remains bearish and the cross is trading closer to its recent lows. The latest sideways move appears to be a flag formation - a bearish continuation pattern.EURJPY bounced sharply Wednesday resulting in a print above the 50-day EMA of 161.42. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 163.49, the Sep 27 high, and 163.89, the Aug 15 high. A clear break of both price points would highlight a potential reversal.
- Gold is unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. WTI futures traded in a volatile manner Tuesday and the contract has recovered from its recent lows. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, at $71.63, has been pierced. A clear breach of this EMA is required to highlight a stronger reversal that would open $76.40, the Aug 26 high.
- Bund futures traded sharply higher Tuesday and this resulted in a break above key resistance and a bull trigger at 135.66. A clear break of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and paves the way for a climb towards 136.77. A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present - for now - and this week’s extension reinforces the bearish theme. The contract has traded through support at 98.11, the Sep 2 low and a bear trigger.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Double Top Threat?
- RES 4: 1.1342 2.00 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 - Aug 1 price swing
- RES 3: 1.1276 High Jul 18 2023
- RES 2: 1.1214/34 High Sep 25 / 1.618 proj Jun 26-Jul 17-Aug 1 swing
- RES 1: 1.1105/1144 20-day EMA / High Oct 1
- PRICE: 1.1034 @ 05:47 BST Oct 3
- SUP 1: 1.1002 Low Sep 11 and double top mid-point
- SUP 2: 1.0940 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - 26 bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.0909 Low Aug 9
- SUP 4: 1.0878 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 26 bull leg
The short-term outlook in EURUSD remains bullish, however, this week’s move down highlights scope for a deeper corrective pullback. Support at the 50-day EMA of 1.1045 has cracked, and a clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 1.1002, the Sep 11 low and the next key support. Clearance of this level would highlight a double top reversal. Initial resistance is at 1.1105, the 20-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Clears Support At The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.3629 2.236 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3527 2.00 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing
- RES 2: 1.3500 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 1.3389/3434 Oct 1 / High Sep 26 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.3179 @ 06:29 BST Oct 3
- SUP 1: 1.3154 Low Sep 19
- SUP 2: 1.3113 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3049 50.0% retracement of the Aug 8 - Sep 25 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.3002 Low Sep 11
GBPUSD has traded lower this week and remains soft as the bear leg extends. The pair has breached support at the 20-day EMA - at 1.3255. The clear break of this average signals scope for a deeper correction, potentially towards the 50-day EMA at 1.3113. The trend condition remains bullish and moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reflecting a clear uptrend. The bull trigger is 1.3434, the Sep 26 high.
EURGBP TECHS: Bear Flag
- RES 4: 0.8494 High Aug 26
- RES 3: 0.8424/64 50-day EMA / High Sep 11
- RES 2: 0.8400 Low Aug 30
- RES 1: 0.8379 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8349 @ 06:16 BST Oct 3
- SUP 1: 0.8311 3.00 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
- SUP 2: 0.8276 3.382 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
The trend condition in EURGBP remains bearish and the cross is trading closer to its recent lows. The latest sideways move appears to be a flag formation - a bearish continuation pattern. Note that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 0.8276 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is 0.8379, the 20-day EMA.
USDJPY TECHS: Pierces The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 150.76 50.0% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg
- RES 3: 149.39 High Aug 15 and a reversal trigger
- RES 2: 148.13 38.2% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg
- RES 1: 147.24 Intraday high
- PRICE: 146.66 @ 06:41 BST Oct 3
- SUP 1: 143.90 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 141.65 Low Sep 30
- SUP 3: 140.45 Low Sep 18
- SUP 4: 139.58 Low Sep 16 and the bear trigger
USDJPY rallied sharply higher Wednesday and remains firm. The rally has resulted in a print above resistance around the 50-day EMA, at 146.20. A clear break of this average would undermine a bearish theme and highlight a stronger reversal. This would open 149.39, the Aug 15 high. It is still possible that short-term gains are corrective. A reversal lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 139.58, the Sep 16 low.
EURJPY TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 166.53 High Jul 31
- RES 3: 165.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 163.89 High Aug 15 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 163.49 High Sep 27
- PRICE: 161.65 @ 06:58 BST Oct 3
- SUP 1: 158.11/155.15 Low Sep 30 / Low Sep 16
- SUP 2: 154.42 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 154.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
EURJPY bounced sharply Wednesday resulting in a print above the 50-day EMA of 161.42. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 163.49, the Sep 27 high, and 163.89, the Aug 15 high. A clear break of both price points would highlight a potential reversal. For now, trend signals remain bearish and are considered corrective. A resumption of bearish price action would open 155.15, the Sep 16 low, and 154.42, the Aug 5 low and a bear trigger.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Set-Up Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 0.7029 High Feb 14 ‘23
- RES 3: 0.7003 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 0.6984 0.764 proj of the Aug 5 - 29 - Sep 11 price swing
- RES 1: 0.6942 High Sep 30
- PRICE: 0.6870 @ 07:35 BST Oct 3
- SUP 1: 0.6816 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6747 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.6622 Low Sep 11 and key support
- SUP 4: 0.6608 Low Aug 16
An uptrend in AUDUSD remains intact and the latest pullback appears to be corrective. Key resistance at 0.6824, the Aug 29 high, has recently been cleared. The break confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Aug 5. Note too that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 0.6984 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 0.6816, the 20-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 1.3693 High Aug 19
- RES 3: 1.3647 High Sep 19 and key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3585 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3533 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3509 @ 07:56 BST Oct 3
- SUP 1: 1.3420 Low Sep 25 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3413 Low Feb 9
- SUP 3: 1.3358 76.4% retracement of the Dec 27 ‘23 - Aug 5 bull run
- SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 5
The trend condition in USDCAD is unchanged and remains bearish. The strong Sep 24 sell-off reinforced this condition. The pair has breached support at 1.3441, the Aug 28 low. This break confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Aug 5 and paves the way for an extension towards 1.3358, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3533, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains are considered corrective.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 137.85 1.382 projection of the Sep 2 - 11 - 20 price swing
- RES 3: 136.77 1.00 projection of the Sep 2 - 11 - 20 price swing
- RES 2: 136.37 1.236 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 2 bear leg
- RES 1: 136.20 High Oct 1
- PRICE: 135.09 @ 05:26 BST Oct 3
- SUP 1: 134.64 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 134.31/133.96 Low Sep 27 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 132.65 Low Sep 2 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 132.25 Low Jul 29
Bund futures traded sharply higher Tuesday and this resulted in a break above key resistance and a bull trigger at 135.66. A clear break of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and paves the way for a climb towards 136.77, a Fibonacci projection. The contract has pulled from its latest highs. The move down appears to be a correction - for now. Initial firm support lies at 134.59, the 20-day EMA.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Uptrend Remains Intact
- RES 4: 121.379 1.236 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 20 price swing
- RES 3: 121.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 120.99 1.00 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 20 price swing
- RES 1: 120.650 High Oct 1
- PRICE: 120.100 @ 05:36 BST Oct 3
- SUP 1: 120.010 Low Oct 1
- SUP 2: 119.784 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 119.660 Low Sep 27
- SUP 4: 119.340 Low Sep 20 and key support
The trend condition in Bobl futures remains bullish and Tuesday’s rally reinforces this theme. The contract has traded through resistance at 120.230, the Sep 11 high and a bull trigger. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish sequence of higher lows. Sights are set on a climb towards 120.990 next, a Fibonacci retracement level. Initial firm support is at 119.784, the 20-day EMA. A pullback is considered corrective.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 107.693 1.382 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 18 price swing
- RES 3: 107.600 1.236 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 107.450 1.00 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 107.335 High Oct 1 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 107.180 @ 05:57 BST Oct 3
- SUP 1: 107.140/107.018 Low Oct 1 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 106.815 Low Sep 18
- SUP 3: 106.675 Low Sep 4
- SUP 4: 105.520 Low Sep 3 and a key support
A bull cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and the latest pullback has been a correction. Tuesday’s gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend - key resistance at 107.155, the Sep 11 high, has been breached. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and paves the way for a climb towards 107.450, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is 107.018, the 20-day EMA.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Clears Support
- RES 4: 101.06 High sep 18
- RES 3: 100.39 High Sep 19
- RES 2: 100.00 High Sep 23
- RES 1: 99.47 High Oct and key short-term resistance
- PRICE: 98.080@ Close Oct 2
- SUP 1: 97.97 Low Oct 2
- SUP 2: 97.85 0.50 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 3: 97.47 0.618 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 4: 96.99 0.764 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present - for now - and this week’s extension reinforces the bearish theme. The contract has traded through support at 98.11, the Sep 2 low and a bear trigger. The break strengthens the downtrend, signalling scope for a deeper retracement, towards 97.47, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 99.47, the Oct 1 high and just above the 20-day EMA.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Uptrend Remains Intact
- RES 4: 123.40 3.500 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 3: 123.12 3.382 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 2: 122.78 3.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 1: 122.62 High Oct 1
- PRICE: 121.60 @ Close Oct 2
- SUP 1: 120.82/17 20-day EMA / Low Sep 19
- SUP 2: 119.32 Low Sep 9
- SUP 3: 118.85 Low Sep 4
- SUP 4: 118.16 Low Sep 2 and key support
The medium-term trend condition in BTP futures is bullish and Tuesday’s rally reinforces this theme. The contract has cleared key short-term resistance at 121.59, the Sep 17 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. This maintains the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The break higher paves the way for a climb towards 122.78, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 120.74, the 20-day EMA.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Monitoring Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 5256.00 1.00 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 5200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 5138.24 0.764 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 5106.00 High Sep 30
- PRICE: 4954.00 @ 06:06 BST Oct 3
- SUP 1: 4922.33 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 4848.00/4757.00 Low Sep 13 / Low Sep 6 and 10
- SUP 3: 4813.00 Low Sep 12
- SUP 4: 4757.00 Low Sep 6 / 10 and key support
Eurostoxx 50 futures traded sharply higher last week resulting in a clear break of 5024.00, the Sep 3 high. This confirms a resumption of the bull leg that started Aug 5 and cancels a recent bearish theme. It also suggests that the pullback this week is likely a correction. Key short-term support to watch is 4922.33, the 50-day EMA. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a climb towards 5138.24, a Fibonacci projection.
E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Shallow Correction
- RES 4: 5900.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 5871.77 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- RES 2: 5868.50 1.00 proj of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 1: 5830.00 High Sep 26
- PRICE: 5749.50 @ 07:17 BST Oct 3
- SUP 1: 5726.75 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5656.94 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 5500.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 5451.25 Low Sep 6 and a bear trigger
A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest shallow pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains reinforce a bullish theme and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode setup, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Scope is seen for a climb towards 5868.50, a Fibonacci projection, and 5900.00 further out. On the downside, initial support to watch is 5726.75, the 20-day EMA. Key support lies at 5656.94, the 50-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (Z4) Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Intact For Now
- RES 4: $81.47 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 3: $79.68 - High Aug 26
- RES 2: $76.92 - 50.0% retracement of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 1: $75.10/76.14 - 50-day EMA / High Oct 2
- PRICE: $74.79 @ 06:55 BST Oct 3
- SUP 1: $69.91/68.29 - Low Oct 1 / 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $67.73 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 3: $66.12 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $63.52 - 2.00 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
Brent futures traded in a volatile manner Tuesday and the contract has recovered from its latest lows. Key short-term resistance at the 50-day EMA, at $75.10, has been pierced. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a stronger reversal. The trend condition remains bearish - for now. A resumption of weakness would open $68.29, the Sep 10 low and bear trigger. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.
WTI TECHS: (X4) Testing Resistance
- RES 4: $79.69 - High Jul 18
- RES 3: $77.70 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 2: $76.40 - High Aug 26
- RES 1: $71.63/72.49 - 50-day EMA / High Oct 2
- PRICE: $71.04 @ 07:13 BST Oct 3
- SUP 1: $66.33/64.61 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $63.89 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
- SUP 4: $57.07 - 2.2368 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
WTI futures traded in a volatile manner Tuesday and the contract has recovered from its recent lows. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, at $71.63, has been pierced. A clear breach of this EMA is required to highlight a stronger reversal that would open $76.40, the Aug 26 high. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on the key support and bear trigger at $64.61, the Sep 10 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend.
GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: $2708.4 - 2.764 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 3: $2697.9 - 3.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: $2690.2 - 2.618 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 1: $2685.6 - High Sep 26
- PRICE: $2652.8 @ 07:08 BST Oct 3
- SUP 1: $2622.7 - Low Sep 24
- SUP 2: $2602.7 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2547.0 - Low Sep 18
- SUP 4: $2530.9 - 50-day EMA
Gold is unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. The focus is on $2690.2 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support lies at $2602.7, the 20-day EMA.
SILVER TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: $33.738 - 1.618 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 3: $33.297 - 1.50 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 2: $33.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $32.715 - High Sep 26
- PRICE: $31.678 @ 08:02 BST Oct 3
- SUP 1: $30.724/29.898 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: $28.535 - Low Sep 12
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 and a key support
- SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14
Bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and last week’s climb reinforces this set-up. The metal has recently traded through resistance at $31.754, the Jul 11 high. Note too that price has pierced $32.518, the May 20 high and a key resistance. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and open $33.297, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support lies at $29.898, the 50-day EMA.