MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EuroStoxx50 Clears Key Support

Price Signal Summary – EuroStoxx50 Clears Key Support

• A bull theme in S&P E-minis remains intact and the pullback this week appears to be a correction - for now. Attention is on the first support 4409.66, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this level would expose 4368.50, the Jun 26 low and a key support. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded sharply lower Thursday, clearing a number of key support levels in the process. The contract has breached the key level at 4241.00, the May 31 low. This highlights a potential reversal and signals scope for weakness towards 4208.50
• GBPUSD is unchanged having erased the entirety of a mid-session rally yesterday. For bulls, support at 1.2591, the Jun 29 low, remains intact. Resistance to watch is 1.2760, Jun 27 high. USDJPY is trading at the week’s low. The primary trend direction remains up and short-term weakness is considered corrective - for now. Support to watch is 142.86, the 20-day EMA and 142.19, the former bull channel top. A break of 142.19 would signal scope for a deeper correction. The trend condition in AUDUSD remains bearish and recent short-term gains appear to have been a correction. The pair remains below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The recent break of these averages suggests scope for a deeper retracement.
• The trend condition in Gold is unchanged and remains bearish. Fresh lows last week reinforce bearish conditions, confirming a resumption of the downtrend and extending the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. WTI futures remain in a bear mode condition and recent gains still appear to be a correction. Initial firm resistance to watch is $72.72, the Jun 21 high. A break of this level would expose $75.70, the Jun 5 high and a key resistance.
• Bund futures remain soft and the contract traded sharply lower yesterday. This marks an extension of the pullback from 135.00, the Jun 27 low. Price has cleared key support and the bear trigger at 132.12, the May 26 low. Gilt futures remain soft and yesterday’s break lower reinforces bearish conditions. The contract has cleared key support at 93.88, the Jun 20 low, to confirm a resumption of the downtrend and maintain the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Watching Resistance

• RES 4: 1.1095 High Apr 26 and key resistance
• RES 3: 1.1054 High May 8
• RES 2: 1.0977/1012 High Jun 27 / 22 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.0934 High Jul 3
• PRICE: 1.0895 @ 05:52 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 1.0824/04 50.0% of the May 31 - Jun 22 rally / Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: 1.0779 61.8% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 22 rally
• SUP 3: 1.0733 Low Jun 12
• SUP 4: 1.0724 76.4% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 22 rally

EURUSD traded lower Thursday to test support at 1.0835, the Jun 30 low, before recovering. The latest pullback is considered corrective, however, the move lower highlights a break of the 50-day EMA, at 1.0859, signalling scope for a deeper retracement. A resumption of weakness would open 1.0804, the Jun 15 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at 1.0934, the Jul 3 high. A break would mark a bullish development.

GBPUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.2977 0.764 proj of the Mar 8 - May 10 - May 25 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2877 High Apr 25 2022
• RES 2: 1.2849 0.618 proj of the Mar 8 - May 10 - May 25 price swing
• RES 1: 1.2760/84 High Jun 27 / High Jul 6
• PRICE: 1.2745 @ 06:08 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 1.2591 Low Jun 29
• SUP 2: 1.2578/75 Trendline drawn from the Mar 8 low / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2433 Low Jun 8
• SUP 4: 1.2369 Low Jun 5 and a key support

GBPUSD is unchanged having erased the entirety of a mid-session rally yesterday. For bulls, support at 1.2591, the Jun 29 low, remains intact. Resistance to watch is 1.2760, Jun 27 high. This level was pierced yesterday. A stronger break would pave the way for a climb towards key resistance at 1.2849, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, a break of 1.2591 would resume the recent downtrend and expose the 50-day EMA at 1.2575.

EURGBP TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.8749 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 19 downleg
• RES 3: 0.8719 High May 23
• RES 2: 0.8619/58 High Jun 30 / 28 and a short-term bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8586 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8548 @ 06:35 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 0.8518 Low Jun 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8497 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.8408 Low Aug 24 2022

The primary trend direction in EURGBP is down and this week’s continuation lower reinforces a bearish theme. The focus is on the bear trigger at 0.8518, the Jun 19 low, where a break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Note that moving average studies are in bear-mode position, highlighting current trend conditions. Key resistance has been defined at 0.8658, the Jun 28 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 147.16 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 146.12 76.4% Oct-Jan Downleg
• RES 2: 145.66 1.50 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 1: 145.07 High Jun 30 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 143.65 @ 06:51 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 142.86 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 142.19 Former bull channel top drawn from the Jan 16 high
• SUP 3: 141.21 Low Jun 20
• SUP 4: 139.85 Low Jun 16

USDJPY is trading at the week’s low. The primary trend direction remains up and short-term weakness is considered corrective - for now. Support to watch is 142.86, the 20-day EMA and 142.19, the former bull channel top. A break of 142.19 would signal scope for a deeper correction. The bull trigger has been defined at 145.07, the Jun 30 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 145.66, a Fibonacci projection.

EURJPY TECHS: Pullback Exposes Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 160.38 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 158.72 2.00 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 157.12/158.00 High Jul 6 / High Jun 28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 156.37 @ 07:02 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 155.43/06 20-day EMA / Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: 154.05 Low Jun 20
• SUP 3: 153.09 Low Jun 16
• SUP 4: 152.28 50-day EMA

The EURJPY uptrend remains intact and the latest move lower appears to be a correction. This corrective phase is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind and attention is on the next support at 155.43, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would signal potential for a deeper retracement, towards the 50-day EMA, at 152.28. For bulls, clearance of 158.00, the Jun 28 high, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 0.6857 High Jun 20
• RES 3:0.6768 High Jun 23
• RES 2: 0.6806 High Jun 22
• RES 1: 0.6721/0.6736 High Jun 27 / 1.0% 10-dma Envelope
• PRICE: 0.6632 @ 07:56 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 0.6596 Low June 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6579 Low Jun 5
• SUP 3: 0.6562 76.4% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 16 rally
• SUP 4: 0.6485 Low Jun 1

The trend condition in AUDUSD remains bearish and recent short-term gains appear to have been a correction. The pair remains below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The recent break of these averages suggests scope for a deeper retracement. A resumption of weakness would open 0.6562, 76.4% of the May 31 - Jun 16 rally. Initial firm resistance is at 0.6721, the Jun 27 high. Clearance of this level would suggest scope for a stronger correction.

USDCAD TECHS: Rally Extends

• RES 4: 1.3449 61.8% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 27 downleg
• RES 3: 1.3427 High Jun 7
• RES 2: 1.3401 50-dma
• RES 1: 1.3386 50.0% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 27 downleg
• PRICE: 1.3373 @ 08:09 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 1.3280 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3203 Low Jul 4 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 1.3117 Low Jun 27 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.3084 1.618 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing

USDCAD traded sharply higher yesterday. The pair has managed to push through resistance at the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The latest recovery still appears to be a correction, however, the strong rally yesterday suggests scope for and continuation higher near-term potentially towards 1.3449, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial key short-term support has been defined at 1.3203, the Jul 4 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Clears Key Support

• RES 4: 135.61 High Jun 2
• RES 3: 134.14/135.00 High Jul 3 / High Jun 27
• RES 2: 133.40 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 132.18/65 Low Jun 16 / High Jul 6
• PRICE: 131.30 @ 05:16 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 130.97 Low Jul 6
• SUP 2: 130.46 1.236 projection of the Jun 1 - 16 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 129.93 1.382 projection of the Jun 1 - 16 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 129.49 1.50 projection of the Jun 1 - 16 - 27 price swing

Bund futures remain soft and the contract traded sharply lower yesterday. This marks an extension of the pullback from 135.00, the Jun 27 low. Price has cleared key support and the bear trigger at 132.12, the May 26 low. The clear break strengthens bearish conditions and confirms a resumption of the downtrend. This opens 130.46, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 132.18, the Jun 16 low.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Southbound

• RES 4: 116.280 High Jun 29
• RES 3: 115.910 High Jul 3
• RES 2: 115.825 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 115.320 Low Jun 22
• PRICE: 114.780 @ 05:29 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 114.550 Low Jul 6
• SUP 2: 114.432 1.764 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 114.130 Low Mar 6 (cont) and a major support
• SUP 4: 114.090 2.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Bobl futures traded sharply lower Thursday, confirming a resumption of the downtrend. The break lower maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, reinforcing current trend conditions. The move lower opens 114.130, the Mar 6 low on the continuation chart. Initial firm resistance is at 115.320, the Jun 22 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 105.185 High Jun 15
• RES 3: 105.130 High Jun 26 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 105.003 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 104.785/915 High Jul 7 / 3
• PRICE: 104.680 @ 05:39 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 104.570 Low Jul 6
• SUP 2: 104.470 2.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 104.335 Low Mar 9 (cont) and a major support
• SUP 4: 104.264 2.382 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Schatz futures remain in a downtrend and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. The move down this week confirms a resumption of the downtrend and an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a downtrend. The focus is on 104.470 next, a Fibonacci projection (cont). Initial firm resistance is at 105.003, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Cracks Key Support

• RES 4: 96.19 High Jun 29
• RES 3: 95.55 High Jul 3
• RES 2: 95.26 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 93.88 Low Jun 20 and a key breakout level
• PRICE: 92.71 @ Close Jul 6
• SUP 1: 92.18 Low Jul 6
• SUP 2: 92.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 91.80 1.382 proj of the Jun 1 - 20 - 23 price swing (cont)
• SUP 4: 91.36 1.50 proj of the Jun 1 - 20 - 23 price swing (cont)

Gilt futures remain soft and yesterday’s break lower reinforces bearish conditions. The contract has cleared key support at 93.88, the Jun 20 low, to confirm a resumption of the downtrend and maintain the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This signals scope for a move to 91.80 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 93.88. A break of this level is required to ease bearish pressure.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 117.60 High Jun 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 116.52 High Jul 3
• RES 2: 115.60 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 114.61 Low Jun 15
• PRICE: 113.52 @ Close Jul 7
• SUP 1: 113.15 76.4% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 26 bull leg
• SUP 2: 112.48 Low May 29
• SUP 3: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support
• SUP 4: 111.00 Round number support

A sharp sell-off in BTP futures yesterday reinforces a bearish theme and confirms an extension of the reversal from 117.60, the Jun 26 high. The focus is on 113.15, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would open 111.78, the May 26 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance is seen at 115.16, yesterday’s high. A break of this level would ease the current bearish threat.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Bearish Breakout

• RES 4: 4472.24 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 4448.00 High Jan 2008 (cont) and key resistance
• RES 2: 4371.00 High Jul 6
• RES 1: 4335.20 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 4253.00 @ 06:02 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 4233.00 Low Jul 6
• SUP 2: 4208.50 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 3 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 4200.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4152.20 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 3 bull cycle

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded sharply lower Thursday, clearing a number of key support levels in the process. The contract has breached the key level at 4241.00, the May 31 low. This highlights a potential reversal and signals scope for weakness towards 4208.50, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, key short-term resistance is seen at 4335.20, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would ease bearish pressure.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 4556.71 2.382 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 4552.12 Bull channel top drawn from the Mar 13 low
• RES 2: 4532.08 2.236 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 4498.00 High Jun 30
• PRICE: 4443.50 @ 06:46 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 4409.66/4368.50 20-day EMA / Low Jun 26 and a key support
• SUP 2: 4321.67 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4310.90 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 13 low
• SUP 4: 4269.50 Low Jun 2

A bull theme in S&P E-minis remains intact and the pullback this week appears to be a correction - for now. Attention is on the first support 4409.66, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this level would expose 4368.50, the Jun 26 low and a key support. On Monday, the contract pierced key resistance and the bull trigger at 4493.75, the Jun 16 high. A clear breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend opening 4532.08, a Fibonacci projection.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U3) Approaching Resistance

• RES 4: $84.02 - High Apr 18
• RES 3: $82.00 - High Apr 24 / 25
• RES 2: $79.61 - High Apr 12
• RES 1: $77.25/78.47 - High Jun 21 / 5 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: $76.94 @ 06:57 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: $71.43 - Low May 31
• SUP 2: $71.00 - Low May 4
• SUP 3: $69.95 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 4: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)

A short-term bullish theme in Brent futures remains in play, however, recent gains are considered corrective. Initial firm resistance to watch is $77.25, the Jun 21 high. Clearance of this level would expose $78.47, the Jun 5 high. A move above $78.47 would highlight a stronger reversal. On the downside, a resumption of weakness would expose $71.00, the May 4 low, ahead of $69.95, the Mar 20 low.

WTI TECHS: (Q3) Corrective Cycle Extends

• RES 4: $80.39 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $78.62 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $76.35 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $72.72/75.70 - High Jun 21 / High Jun 5 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $72.23 @ 07:01 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: $66.96 - Low Jun 12
• SUP 2: $64.41 - Low May 4 and key support
• SUP 3: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number

WTI futures remain in a bear mode condition and recent gains still appear to be a correction. Initial firm resistance to watch is $72.72, the Jun 21 high. A break of this level would expose $75.70, the Jun 5 high and a key resistance. Clearance of this level would signal a stronger reversal. For bears, a resumption of weakness would pave the way for a move towards $66.96, the Jun 12 low and the next key support.

GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: $2063.0 - High May 4
• RES 3: $2022.6 - High May 12
• RES 2: $1985.3 - High May 24 and key resistance
• RES 1: $1929.4/1945.9 - 20- and 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1914.7 @ 07:15 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: $1893.1 - Low Jun 29
• SUP 2: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle
• SUP 4: $1827.8 - Low Mar 10

The trend condition in Gold is unchanged and remains bearish. Fresh lows last week reinforce bearish conditions, confirming a resumption of the downtrend and extending the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position highlighting current sentiment. The focus is on $1885.8, the Mar 15 low. Key resistance is $1985.3, the May 24 high. Initial resistance is $1929.4 the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Resistance Stays Intact

• RES 4: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.477/26.135 - High May 11 / 5 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $23.450/24.530 - 50-day EMA / High Jun 9 and key resistance
• PRICE: $22.693 @ 07:21 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: $22.111 - Low Jun 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally
• SUP 3: $20.591 - Low Mar 13
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

Recent Silver gains still appear to be a correction. Resistance to watch is at $23.450, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a stronger retracement with key resistance at $24.530, the Jun 9 high. For bears, a continuation lower would open $22.111, the Jun 23 low and bear trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and pave the way for a move to $21.375, a Fibonacci retracement.