MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Friday Gains Reinforce Bullish Equity Condition

Price Signal Summary – Friday Gains Reinforce Bullish Equity Condition

• A broader uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and Friday’s gains reinforce this condition. The contract has traded to fresh cycle highs, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Recent corrections have been shallow - this also highlights a strong uptrend. Eurostoxx 50 futures remain firm and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Key resistance at the Dec 14 high of 4634.00 has recently been cleared. The break confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and sights are on the 4700.00 handle next.
• GBPUSD traded sharply lower Friday and the pair maintains a weaker tone. Attention is on key support at 1.2597, the Jan 17 low and range base. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. The USDJPY trend outlook remains bullish - Friday’s strong rally reinforces this condition and today's high has resulted in a print above key resistance at 148.80, the Jan 19 high. A clear break of 148.80 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. The recent move lower in USDCAD is - for now - considered corrective. Recent gains have reinforced a bullish theme and sights are on 1.3542, the Jan 17 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle.
• WTI futures remain soft following last week’s steep sell-off. The move lower undermines the recent bullish theme. A continuation would expose support at $70.62, the Jan 17 low, and $69.56, the Jan 3 low. Gold has pulled back from last week’s high but remains above the Jan 17 low of $2001.9. Recent short-term gains have improved a bullish condition and a continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards $2088.5, the Dec 28 high.
• Bund futures faced resistance on Friday and the contract is trading below its recent highs. A continuation lower would further undermine the recent bullish theme and expose key short-term support at 133.55, the Jan 25 low. Gilt futures traded sharply lower Friday. The move lower has defined a key short-term resistance at 100.62, the Feb 1 high. A break of this level is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme and this would open 100.76, 50.0% of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg.

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 1.1077 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Jan 5 sell-off
• RES 3: 1.1046 High Jan 2
• RES 2: 1.0932/98 High Jan 24 / 5 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 1.0898 High Feb 02
• PRICE: 1.0779 @ 05:43 GMT Feb 5
• SUP 1: 1.0767 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.0724 Low Dec 8
• SUP 3: 1.0712 61.8% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.0656 Low Nov 10

EURUSD maintains a bearish theme and Friday’s steep sell-off reinforces current conditions. Fresh cycle lows mark a resumption of the downtrend and maintain the bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs - the definition of a downtrend. Sights are on 1.0724, the Dec 8 low. On the upside, clearance of 1.0932, the Jan 24 high, is required to signal scope for a stronger recovery.

GBPUSD TECHS: Approaching The Range Base

• RES 4: 1.2996 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.2827 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2697/2775 20-day EMA / High Jan 24
• PRICE: 1.2610 @ 06:01 GMT Feb 5
• SUP 1: 1.2597 Low Jan 17 and key range support
• SUP 2: 1.2525 38.2% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 28 bull phase
• SUP 3: 1.2500 Low Dec 13
• SUP 4: 1.2432 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 28 bull phase

GBPUSD traded sharply lower Friday and the pair maintains a weaker tone. Attention is on key support at 1.2597, the Jan 17 low and range base. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme, highlight a range breakout and signal scope for weakness towards 1.2500, the Dec 13 low. Initial resistance is at 1.2697, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance is unchanged at 1.2827, the Dec 28 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 0.8768 High Nov 20
• RES 3: 0.8715 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8676 High Jan 3
• RES 1: 0.8565/8601 20-and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: 0.8549 @ 06:24 GMT Feb 5
• SUP 1: 0.8513 Low Jan 29
• SUP 2: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 2023 and a key medium-term support
• SUP 3: 0.8454 61.8% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
• SUP 4: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2023

EURGBP bears remain in the driver’s seat with the cross trading closer to its recent lows. The break in January of support at 0.8549, the Dec 11 low, strengthened the current bearish condition. Furthermore, recent consolidation appears to be a bear flag - a bearish continuation signal. Sights are on 0.8493, Aug 23 ‘23 low and a key support. The 50-day EMA - at 0.8601 - is the firm resistance to watch. First resistance is at 0.8565, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Trend Condition

• RES 4: 150.78 High Nov 17
• RES 3: 149.75 High Nov 22
• RES 2: 149.16 76.4% retracement of the Nov 13 - Dec 28 bull leg
• RES 1: 148.82 Intraday high
• PRICE: 148.29 @ 06:44 GMT Feb 5
• SUP 1: 146.81/145.90 20-day EMA / Low Feb 1
• SUP 2: 145.59 Low Jan 16
• SUP 3: 144.36 Low Jan 12 and key S/T support
• SUP 4: 143.42 Low Jan 9

The USDJPY trend outlook remains bullish - Friday’s strong rally reinforces this condition and today's high has resulted in a print above key resistance at 148.80, the Jan 19 high. A clear break of 148.80 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started late December and open 149.16, a Fibonacci retracement point. Scope would also be seen for a climb towards 149.75, the Nov 22 high. Key short-term support lies at 145.90, the Feb 1 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: 163.72 High Nov 27
• RES 3: 162.25 High Nov 29
• RES 2: 160.97/161.86 High Jan 25 / 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 160.34 High Jan 30
• PRICE: 159.82@ 07:01 GMT Feb 5
• SUP 1: 158.08 Low Feb 1 and a key near-term support
• SUP 2: 157.21 Low Jan 9
• SUP 3: 156.08 Low Jan 4
• SUP 4: 155.08 Low Jan 2

A bullish trend in EURJPY is intact, however, the current bear cycle remains in play. The cross has recently traded below the 20- and 50-day EMAs and this signals scope for a deeper pullback. A break of 158.08, the Feb 1 low, would resume bearish pressure and open 157.21, the Jan 9 low. For bulls, a stronger reversal would refocus attention on 161.86, the Jan 19 high and bull trigger. A break of this level would reinstate the recent bullish theme.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.6729/71 High Jan 12 / 3
• RES 1: 0.6625 High Jan 30 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 0.6511 @ 05:33 GMT Feb 5
• SUP 1: 0.6486 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.6453 Low Nov 17
• SUP 3: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
• SUP 4: 0.6360 Low Nov 14

From a trend perspective, a bearish theme in AUDUSD continues to dominate and the latest sell-off reinforces this condition. The break to fresh cycle lows last week confirms a resumption of the downtrend and signals scope for weakness towards 0.6453, the Nov 17 low. Moving average studies are crossing into a bear-mode set-up, strengthening a bearish theme. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.6625, the Jan 30 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Support Stays Intact For Now

• RES 4: 1.3661 High Nov 27
• RES 3: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.3608 High Dec 13
• RES 1: 1.3542 High Jan 17 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3475 @ 07:23 GMT Feb 5
• SUP 1: 1.3359 Low Jan 31
• SUP 2: 1.3343 Low Jan 12
• SUP 3: 1.3288/3177 Low Jan 5 / Low Dec 27
• SUP 4: 1.3093 Low Jul 14 and key support

The recent move lower in USDCAD is - for now - considered corrective. Recent gains have reinforced a bullish theme and sights are on 1.3542, the Jan 17 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started Dec 27 and open 1.3623, 61.8% of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg. Key support to watch lies at 1.3343, Jan 12 low. A break would be a bearish development and open 1.3288, the Jan 5 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H4) Trading Below Last Week’s High.

• RES 4: 137.96 High Jan 4
• RES 3: 137.59 76.4% retracement of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg
• RES 2: 136.82 61.8% retracement of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg
• RES 1: 136.29 High Feb 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 134.78 @ 05:10 GMT Feb 5
• SUP 1: 134.55 50.0% of the Jan 25 - Feb 1 rally Jan 30 /
• SUP 2: 133.55 Low 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 132.89 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 27 bull phase
• SUP 4: 132.29 Low Nov 29

Bund futures faced resistance on Friday and the contract is trading below its recent highs. A continuation lower would further undermine the recent bullish theme and expose key short-term support at 133.55, the Jan 25 low. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. For bulls, clearance of last week’s high at 136.29 (Feb 1), is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme.

BOBL TECHS: (H4) Reversal Lower Exposes Key Support

• RES 4: 119.228 76.4% retracement of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg
• RES 3: 119.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 118.856 61.8% retracement of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg
• RES 1: 118.660 High Jan 31 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 117.780 @ 05:25 GMT Feb 5
• SUP 1: 117.680/280 Intraday low / Low Jan 25 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 117.060 Low Dec 1
• SUP 3: 117.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 116.830 Low Nov 29

A bearish cycle in Bobl futures remains intact and the strong pullback from last week’s high reinforces this theme. A continuation lower would pave the way for weakness towards the key support at 117.280, the Jan 25 low. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started Dec 27. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 118.660, the Jan 31 high. A break would be a bullish development.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H4) Bearish Condition

• RES 4: 106.432 76.4% retracement of the Dec 29 - Jan 25 bear leg
• RES 3: 106.304 61.8% retracement of the Dec 29 - Jan 25 bear leg
• RES 2: 106.270 High Jan 5 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 106.043 20-day EMA / High Jan 31 and key resistance
• PRICE: 105.850@ 05:35 GMT Feb 5
• SUP 1: 105.760 Low Jan 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 105.730 Low Nov 30
• SUP 3: 105.660 High Nov 17
• SUP 4: 105.470 Low Nov 28

A broader downtrend in Schatz futures remains intact and the strong sell-off from last week’s highs reinforces this condition. Attention is on the key support and the bear trigger at 105.760, the Jan 25 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started Dec 29. This would open 105.660, the Nov 16 high. Key resistance has been defined at 106.215, the Jan 31 high.

GILT TECHS: (H4) Strong Reversal

• RES 4: 101.51 61.8% retracement of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg
• RES 3: 101.98 High Jan 3
• RES 2: 100.76 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg
• RES 1: 99.51/100.62 20-day EMA / High Feb 1 and key resistance
• PRICE: 98.92 @ Close Feb 2
• SUP 1: 98.16/97.57 Low Jan 16 / 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 97.39 Low Dec 11 and a key support
• SUP 3: 96.67 Low Dec 5
• SUP 4: 96.10 Low Nov 30

Gilt futures traded sharply lower Friday. The move lower has defined a key short-term resistance at 100.62, the Feb 1 high. A break of this level is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme and this would open 100.76, 50.0% of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 97.57, the Jan 25 low. A stronger reversal and a break of this support would confirm a resumption of bearish activity.

BTP TECHS: (H4) Watching resistance

• RES 4: 122.63 High Dec 7 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 122.18 3.00 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 121.43 2.764 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 119.27/77 High Jan 30 / 4
• PRICE: 118.18 @ Close Feb 2
• SUP 1: 117.94/116.98 Low Jan 26 / 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 115.70 Low Dec 8
• SUP 3: 114.10 50.0% retracement of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 113.31 Low Nov 28

BTP futures remain below last week’s high of 119.27 on Jan 30. The contract has recently traded above the 20-day EMA and pierced the Jan 12 high of 119.23. A clear break above 119.23 would highlight a base and a potential resumption of the primary uptrend. On the downside, key support has been defined at 116.98, the Jan 25 low. A break of this level would instead confirm a resumption of the recent bearish cycle.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H4) Holding On To The Bulk Of Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 4753.50 1.618 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 4725.50 1.50 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 4700.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4697.00 High Feb 2 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4665.00 @ 05:53 GMT Feb 5
• SUP 1: 4599.00/4578.50 High Jan 2 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4507.50 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4402.00 Low Jan 17 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 4370.00 Low Nov 28

Eurostoxx 50 futures remain firm and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Key resistance at the Dec 14 high of 4634.00 has recently been cleared. The break confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and sights are on the 4700.00 handle next. Initial firm support lies at 4578.50, the 20-day EMA. Key trend support has been defined at 4402.00, the Jan 17 low. A short-term pullback would be considered corrective.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (H4) Northbound

• RES 4: 5100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 5050.14 1.764 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 5012.80 1.618 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 5000.00 Psychological round number
• PRICE: 4970.75 @ 06:45 GMT Feb 5
• SUP 1: 4866.000/4772.82 Low Jan 31 / 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 4702.00 Low Jan 5
• SUP 3: 4594.00 Low Nov 30
• SUP 4: 4550.75 Low Nov 16

A broader uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and Friday’s gains reinforce this condition. The contract has traded to fresh cycle highs, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Recent corrections have been shallow - this also highlights a strong uptrend. The focus is on the psychological 5000.00 handle. On the downside, initial key short-term support has been defined at 4866.00, the Jan 31 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (J4) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $87.12 - High Oct 27
• RES 3: $86.03 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 15 - Dec 13 bear cycle
• RES 2: $84.17 - High Jan 29 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $81.55 - High Feb 1
• PRICE: $77.62 @ 06:59 GMT Feb 5
• SUP 1: $76.13 - Low Jan 17
• SUP 2: $74.82 - Low Jan 03
• SUP 3: $72.96 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $70.99 - Low Jun 23 ‘23

Brent futures reversed course last week and the contract is trading just above its recent low of $76.85 (Feb 2). The move lower has resulted in a break below the 50-day EMA. A continuation would signal scope for weakness towards $76.13, the Jan 17 low, ahead of $74.82, the Jan 3 low. For bulls, a break of $84.17 is required to reinstate a bullish theme. First resistance is $81.55, the Feb 1 high.

WTI TECHS: (H4) Maintains A Softer Tone

• RES 4: $86.68 - High Sep 19 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $85.71 - High Oct 20
• RES 2: $82.34 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 19 - Dec 13 bear cycle
• RES 1: $76.95/79.29 - High Feb 1 / High Jan 29 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $72.43 @ 07:09 GMT Feb 5
• SUP 1: $70.62 - Low Jan 17
• SUP 2: $69.56 - Low Jan 3
• SUP 3: $68.28 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger

• SUP 4: $65.63 - Low Jun 12

WTI futures remain soft following last week’s steep sell-off. The move lower undermines the recent bullish theme. A continuation would expose support at $70.62, the Jan 17 low, and $69.56, the Jan 3 low. For bulls, a reversal higher is required to refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $79.29, Jan 29 high. A break of this level would reinstate a bullish theme. Initial resistance is at $76.95, the Feb 1 high.

GOLD TECHS: Remains Above Its Key Support

• RES 4: $2135.4 - High Dec 4 and all-time high
• RES 3: $2097.1 - 76.4% retracement of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• RES 2: $2088.5 - High Jan 12 / High Dec 28
• RES 1: $2065.5 - High Feb 01
• PRICE: $2029.1 @ 07:14 GMT Feb 5
• SUP 1: $2022.3/2001.9 - 20-day EMA / Low Jan 17
• SUP 2: $1973.2 - Low Dec 13 and key support
• SUP 3: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13
• SUP 4: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16

Gold has pulled back from last week’s high but remains above the Jan 17 low of $2001.9. Recent short-term gains have improved a bullish condition and a continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards $2088.5, the Dec 28 high and a key resistance. For bears, a stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on $2001.9 where a break is required to reinstate the recent bearish theme.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $25.761 - High Dec 4 and key resistance
• RES 2: $24.606/994 - High Dec 22 / 76.4% of Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• RES 1: $23.534 - High Jan 12
• PRICE: $22.553 @ 07:54 GMT Feb 5
• SUP 1: $21.883 - Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 2: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 2023

A bearish theme in Silver remains intact and the latest recovery appears to be a correction - for now. The recent breach of support at $22.510, the Dec 13 low, signals scope for a move to $21.883, the Nov 13 low. A break of this support would further strengthen the bearish theme. On the upside, initial key short-term resistance to watch is $23.534, the Jan 12 high. A break of this level would be bullish and highlight a stronger reversal.