MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBP/USD S/T Uptrend Remains Intact

Price Signal Summary – GBP/USD S/T Uptrend Remains Intact

• S&P E-minis briefly traded above 4171.75 yesterday, the Apr 4 high. Current trend conditions are bullish - price has recently breached 4119.50, Mar 6 high, reinforcing a positive theme. The move higher has also resulted in a break of 4148.48, 76.4% of the Feb 2 - Mar 13 downleg. Eurostoxx 50 futures remain firm. The contract traded to a fresh cycle high Wednesday of 4321.00, reinforcing bullish conditions. Price has recently breached 4268.00, the Mar 6 high and a key hurdle for bulls.
• GBPUSD continues to recover from Monday’s 1.2345 low and the uptrend remains intact, Last week’s gains resulted in a break of 1.2448, the Jan 23 high and the top of a broad 3.5 months range. USDJPY continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The latest recovery appears to be a correction and the next key short-term resistance to watch is 134.75, a Fibonacci retracement. AUDUSD has recently failed to remain above the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 0.6735 and marks a key short-term resistance. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bullish condition and open 0.6824, the Feb 24 high.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and last week’s resumption of the uptrend reinforced current conditions - the yellow metal cleared former resistance at 2009.7, the Mar 20 high, to post fresh YTD highs. WTI futures remain in a bull cycle and the contract has traded higher Wednesday, clearing resistance at $81.81, the Apr 4 high. The break confirms a resumption of the current uptrend note that an important resistance at $83.04, the Jan 23 high, has also been breached.
• Bund futures traded lower again Wednesday. Price is through the 20-day EMA, at 135.91 and has pierced key short-term support at 134.70, the Mar 31 low. A break of this level would signal scope for weakness towards 134.15, a Fibonacci retracement. A short-term bearish threat in Gilt futures remains present and the contract traded lower once again on Wednesday. Recent weakness has resulted in a breach of support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 103.79 and price has pierced support at 102.74, the Mar 20 low and a bear trigger.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance

• RES 4: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
• RES 3: 1.1076 High Apr 1 2022
• RES 2: 1.1033 High Feb 2 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.1005 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.0991 @ 05:41 BST Apr 13
• SUP 1: 1.0911/0849 Low Apr 12 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0788 Low Apr 3
• SUP 3: 1.0765 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.0713 Low Mar 24

EURUSD maintains a bullish tone and is through 1.10. This solidifies the breach of last week’s 1.0973 high on Apr 4 and reinforces bullish conditions. Attention is on resistance at 1.1033, the Feb 2 high and a bull trigger. A break would open 1.1076, the Apr 1 2022 high. On the downside, key short-term support lies at the 20-day EMA, at 1.0849. A break of this average would undermine the bull theme and expose 1.0765, the 50-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.2667 High May 27 2022
• RES 3: 1.2673 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.2599 High Jun 7 2022
• RES 1: 1.2487/1.2525 High Apr 6 / 4 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2488 @ 05:52 BST Apr 13
• SUP 1: 1.2399 Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 1.2339 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2275 Low Apr 3
• SUP 4: 1.2228 50-day EMA

GBPUSD continues to recover from Monday’s 1.2345 low and the uptrend remains intact, Last week’s gains resulted in a break of 1.2448, the Jan 23 high and the top of a broad 3.5 months range. This break marks an important medium-term development signalling the next stage of the uptrend that started Sep 26 2022. The focus is on 1.2599, the Jun 7 2022 high. The bull trigger is 1.2525, Apr 4 high. Support is at 1.2324, 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Trades Above The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.8918 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8880 61.8 retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8858/66 Trendline drawn from the Feb 3 high / High Mar 23
• RES 1: 0.8829 High Mar 30
• PRICE: 0.8799 @ 06:04 BST Apr 13
• SUP 1: 0.8763/8729 Low Apr 11 / 4
• SUP 2: 0.8719 Low Mar 15 and key support
• SUP 3: 0.8712 61.8% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg
• SUP 4: 0.8691 Low Dec 19

EURGBP traded higher Wednesday and in the process breached resistance at the 20-day EMA at 0.8793. Attention turns to 0.8829, the Mar 30 high, where a break would ease the recent bearish threat and signal scope for a climb towards trendline resistance at 0.8858 - the trendline is drawn from the Feb 3 high. On the downside, key support lies at 0.8719, the Mar 15 low. A break would strengthen a bearish case.

USDJPY TECHS: Trading Closer To Recent Highs

• RES 4: 135.96 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg
• RES 3: 135.11 High Mar 15
• RES 2: 134.75 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg
• RES 1: 134.05 High Apr 12
• PRICE: 133.23 @ 06:16 BST Apr 13
• SUP 1: 131.83/130.64 Low Apr 10 / 5 and a key support
• SUP 2: 129.64 Low Mar 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 128.09 Low Feb 2
• SUP 4: 127.23 Low Jan 16 and key support

USDJPY continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The latest recovery appears to be a correction and the next key short-term resistance to watch is 134.75, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would strengthen the current bull cycle. On the downside, a reversal lower would signal the end of the corrective phase and attention would turn to the first key support at 130.64, the Apr 5 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Heads North

• RES 4: 147.75 High Oct 31
• RES 3: 147.10 High Nov 9 2022
• RES 2: 146.73 High Dec 15
• RES 1: 146.38 High Apr 12
• PRICE: 146.42 @ 06:47 BST Apr 13
• SUP 1: 144.88 Low Apr 11
• SUP 2: 143.96 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 143.26 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 142.55 Low Apr 6

EURJPY traded higher again Wednesday. The cross has breached the 136.00 handle and recent gains also confirmed a clear break of resistance at 145.57, Mar 2 high. This strengthens bullish conditions and paves the way for a climb towards 146.73, the Dec 15 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition highlighting an uptrend. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 142.55, the Apr 6 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Broader Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 0.6861 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 2: 0.6793 High Apr 4 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.6735 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6699 @ 07:10 BST Apr 13
• SUP 1: 0.6620 Low Apr 10
• SUP 2: 0.6590 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 0.6565/47 Low Mar 10 / 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.6500 Round number support

AUDUSD has recently failed to remain above the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 0.6735 and marks a key short-term resistance. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bullish condition and open 0.6824, the Feb 24 high. The broader trend remains down. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for a test of key support at 0.6565, the Mar 10 low. A break of this level would confirm a continuation of the bear cycle that started Feb 2.

USDCAD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.3745 High Mar 27
• RES 3: 1.3695 High Mar 28
• RES 2: 1.3617 High Mar 29
• RES 1: 1.3558 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3425 @ 07:23 BST Apr 13
• SUP 1: 1.3407/04 Low Apr 7 / 76.4% of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 rally
• SUP 2: 1.3358 Low Feb 16
• SUP 3: 1.3334 Low Feb 15
• SUP 4: 1.3262 Low Feb 2 and a key support

The outlook in USDCAD remains bearish and recent short-term gains appear to have been a correction. The pair continues to trade below the 50-day EMA and sights are on the recent low of 1.3407 (Apr 4) and 1.3404, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of these two support points would expose 1.3358, the Feb 16 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3558, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this EMA is required to suggest a possible reversal.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Pierces Key Support

• RES 4: 140.30 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 140.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 139.54 High Mar 24
• RES 1: 136.88/138.09 High Apr 11 / 6 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 135.16 @ 05:17 BST Apr 13
• SUP 1: 134.66 Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 134.15 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 133.33 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 132.70 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally

Bund futures traded lower again Wednesday . Price is through the 20-day EMA, at 135.91 and has pierced key short-term support at 134.70, the Mar 31 low. A break of this level would signal scope for weakness towards 134.15, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a move above 138.09, the Apr 6 high, is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme and would signal scope for gains above 138.00. Key resistance is still far off at 140.30, the Mar 20 high.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Approaching A Key Support

• RES 4: 120.610 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 120.130 High Mar 24
• RES 2: 119.307 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - 31 downleg
• RES 1: 118.420/119.190 High Apr 11 / High Mar 27
• PRICE: 117.590 @ 05:28 BST Apr 13
• SUP 1: 117.330/200 Low Apr 12 / Low Mar 31 and a key support
• SUP 2: 116.982 61.8% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 116.370 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 116.125 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally

Bobl futures traded lower again Wednesday. For now, the contract remains above support at 117.200, the Mar 31 low. A break of this level would threaten a recent bullish theme and open 116.982, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 119.190, the Mar 27 high and a trigger for a stronger short-term climb - this would open 119.307, a Fibonacci retracement.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Watching Support

• RES 4: 106.695 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 106.315 High Mar 27
• RES 2: 106.190 High Apr 6 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 105.920 High Apr 11
• PRICE: 105.555 @ 05:42 BST Apr 13
• SUP 1: 105.490/105.465 Low Apr 12 / Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 105.336 61.8% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 105.030 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 104.953 76.4% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally

Schatz futures traded lower again Wednesday, however, price remains above the recent low of 105.465 (Mar 31) - for now. The contract has traded below support at the 20-day EMA - at 105.754. A continuation lower would expose 105.465 and a break of this bear trigger would strengthen a bearish threat. This would open 105.336, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, clearance of 106.190, the Apr 6 high, is required to reinstate a recent bullish theme.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 105.04 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - 31 downleg
• RES 3: 104.97 High Mar 6 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 104.16 High Apr 12
• RES 1: 103.87/104.97 20-day EMA / High Apr 6
• PRICE: 103.00 @ Close Apr 12
• SUP 1: 102.58 Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 102.31 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 20 rally
• SUP 3: 102.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 101.12 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 20 rally

A short-term bearish threat in Gilt futures remains present and the contract traded lower once again on Wednesday. Recent weakness has resulted in a breach of support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 103.79 and price has pierced support at 102.74, the Mar 20 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would open 102.31, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key resistance is seen at 104.97, the Apr 6 high.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 118.56 High Jan 19 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 2: 117.17 High Mar 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 115.92/116.97 High Apr 12 / 6
• PRICE: 114.55 @ Close Apr 12
• SUP 1: 114.04 Low Mar 31 and a key support
• SUP 2: 113.71 50.0% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 3: 113.22 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 112.89 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally

BTP futures have failed to hold on to last week’s high of 116.97 (Apr 6). The contract traded lower Wednesday and price is approaching 114.04, the Mar 31 low and a key short-term support. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat and open 113.71, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key resistance is unchanged at 117.17, the Mar 24 high. A break of this level would be bullish.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 4403.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• RES 3: 4381.50 High Jan 5 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 4324.50 High Jan 13 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4321.00 Wednesday’s high
• PRICE: 4293.00 @ 06:24 BST Apr 13
• SUP 1: 4229.00 Low Apr 5
• SUP 2: 4199.30 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4145.40 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4034.00 Low Mar 24 and a key support

Eurostoxx 50 futures remain firm. The contract traded to a fresh cycle high Wednesday of 4321.00, reinforcing bullish conditions. Price has recently breached 4268.00, the Mar 6 high and a key hurdle for bulls. The break strengthens bullish conditions and opens 4324.50, the Jan 13 2022 high (cont). Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up and this highlights a broader uptrend. Initial firm support lies at 4199.30, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (M3): Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 4223.00 High Feb 14
• RES 2: 4205.50 High Feb 16
• RES 1: 4177.75 High Apr 12
• PRICE: 4121.75 @ 06:44 BST Apr 13
• SUP 1: 4083.19 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4056.44 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3980.75 Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: 3937.00 Low Mar 24

S&P E-minis briefly traded above 4171.75 yesterday, the Apr 4 high. Current trend conditions are bullish - price has recently breached 4119.50, Mar 6 high, reinforcing a positive theme. The move higher has also resulted in a break of 4148.48, 76.4% of the Feb 2 - Mar 13 downleg. This signals scope for an extension to 4205.50, the Feb 16 high ahead of 4244.00, the Feb 2 high and a key M/T resistance. Firm support lies at 4056.44, the 50-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M3) Clears Short-Term Resistance

• RES 4: $90.46 - High Nov 15 2022
• RES 3: $90.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $88.35 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $87.49 - High Apr 12
• PRICE: $86.95 @ 06:40 BST Apr 13
• SUP 1: $83.50 - Low Apr 3 and gap high on the daily chart
• SUP 2: $79.95 - High Mar 31 and gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 3: $77.18 - Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: $74.39 - Low Mar 27

Brent futures remain firm and the contract traded higher Tuesday, breaching resistance at $86.44, the Apr 3 high. This confirms a resumption of the current uptrend and signals scope for a climb towards $88.35, the Jan 23 high and a key resistance. On the downside, initial firm support has been defined at $83.50, the Apr 3 low and a gap high on the daily chart. Short-term pullbacks would be considered corrective.

WTI TECHS: (K3) Uptrend Resumes

• RES 4: $89.23 - High Aug 25 2022
• RES 3: $87.48 - High Nov 7 2022
• RES 2: $85.01 - High Nov 14
• RES 1: $83.53 - High Jan 23 and key resistance
• PRICE: $82.95 @ 06:49 BST Apr 13
• SUP 1: $79.00 - Low Apr 3 and gap high on the daily chart
• SUP 2: $75.72 - High Mar 31 and gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 3: $72.19 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: $69.13 - Low Mar 27

WTI futures remain in a bull cycle and the contract has traded higher Wednesday, clearing resistance at $81.81, the Apr 4 high. The break confirms a resumption of the current uptrend note that an important resistance at $83.04, the Jan 23 high, has also been breached. This opens $85.01, the Nov 14 high. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at $79.00, the Apr 3 low and the gap high on the daily chart.

GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $2059.2 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 2: $2034.0 - 2.00 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 rally from Feb 28
• RES 1: $2032.1 - High Apr 5
• PRICE: $2018.4 @ 07:14 BST Apr 13
• SUP 1: $1977.0/1971.9 - Low Apr 4 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1934.3 - Low Mar 22
• SUP 3: $1923.3 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $1871.6 - Low Mar 13

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and last week’s resumption of the uptrend reinforced current conditions - the yellow metal cleared former resistance at 2009.7, the Mar 20 high, to post fresh YTD highs. This signals scope for a climb towards $2034.0 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key support has been defined at $1934.3, the Mar 22 low - a break would highlight a potential reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $26.002 - High Apr 19 2022
• RES 1: $25.672 - High Apr 12
• PRICE: $25.438@ 08:00 BST Apr 13
• SUP 1: $24.566 - Low Apr 6
• SUP 2: $23.930 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $23.044 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $22.157- Low Mar 21

Silver remains firm and the metal continues to appreciate, reinforcing the uptrend. The recent break of resistance at $24.637, the Feb 2 high, confirmed a resumption of the bull trend that started early September 2022. The focus is on $26.002 next, the Apr 19 2022 high. On the downside, a key support is seen at $23.930, the 20-day EMA. The trend is overbought, a pullback would be considered corrective.