MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBPUSD Bulls in Driver’s Seat

Price Signal Summary – GBPUSD Bulls in Driver’s Seat

• A bull theme in S&P E-minis remains intact and this week’s pullback appears to be a correction. Last week’s gains confirmed a resumption of the uptrend, marking an extension of the bull cycle that started in October 2022. The Eurostoxx 50 futures uptrend remains intact and this week’s move lower is considered corrective. Resistance at 4380.00, May 29 high, was cleared last week and key resistance at 4434.00, May 19 high, has been pierced. A clear break of this hurdle would represent an important bullish development.
• GBPUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. The rally last week confirmed a clear break of 1.2680, the May 10 high and a bull trigger. This strengthens bullish conditions - 1.2680 was a key M/T hurdle for bulls and opens 1.2849. USDJPY rallied last Friday and has traded to a fresh trend high this week. Price has breached 141.60, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Jan 16 high. The break reinforces bullish conditions and confirms a resumption of the uptrend, maintaining the bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A strong rally last Thursday in AUDUSD reinforced bullish conditions and confirmed an extension of the bull cycle from May 31. The pair cleared key resistance at 0.6818, May 10 high. This reinforces bullish conditions and opens 0.6921 next, the Feb 20 high.
• The bear cycle in Gold remains intact. The yellow metal breached trendline support last week, drawn from the Nov 3 2022 low. The trendline intersects at $1973.5. The break of this line reinforces a bearish condition and marks a resumption of the downtrend. WTI futures remain below resistance at $75.70, the Jun 5 high and the outlook remains bearish, despite the recent recovery. The pullback from $75.70 reinforces a bearish theme. Support at $67.21, May 31 low, has recently been pierced.
• Bund futures traded higher Tuesday. For now, gains are considered corrective. Resistance at 134.77, the Jun 12 high, is intact. A break of this level is required to expose key short-term resistance at 135.85, the Jun 1 high. A strong bounce in Gilt futures yesterday has eased short-term bearish pressure. Gains - for now - are considered corrective and the trend direction remains down. This week’s bearish start to the week confirmed a resumption of the downtrend.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
• RES 3: 1.1095 High Apr 26 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.1054 High May 8
• RES 1: 1.0986 61.8% retracement of the Apr 26 - May 31 downleg
• PRICE: 1.0918 @ 05:43 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 1.0864 High Jun 14
• SUP 2: 1.0827/0804 20-day EMA / Low Jun 15
• SUP 3: 1.0733 Low Jun 12
• SUP 4: 1.0667/35 Low Jun 6 / Low May 31 and the bear trigger

A bullish theme in EURUSD remains intact and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Price rallied sharply higher last week, extending the bull cycle that started at 1.0635 on May 31. A number of important retracement points have been cleared, reinforcing bullish conditions and this opens 1.0986, 76.4% of the Apr 26 - May 31 downleg. Clearance of this level would expose 1.1054, the May 8 high. Initial firm support is 1.0804, the Jun 15 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.3000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 1.2977 0.764 proj of the Mar 8 - May 10 - May 25 price swing
• RES 2: 1.2877 High Apr 25 2022
• RES 1: 1.2849 0.618 proj of the Mar 8 - May 10 - May 25 price swing
• PRICE: 1.2765 @ 05:52 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 1.2680/30 High May 10 / Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: 1.2595/2494 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 1.2369 Low Jun 5 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.2308 Low May 25 and the bear trigger

GBPUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. The rally last week confirmed a clear break of 1.2680, the May 10 high and a bull trigger. This strengthens bullish conditions - 1.2680 was a key M/T hurdle for bulls and opens 1.2849, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode condition reflecting current conditions. Initial firm support is at 1.2630, the Jun 15 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 0.8768 High May 5
• RES 3: 0.8719 High May 23
• RES 2: 0.8669 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8597/8651 20-day EMA / High May 31
• PRICE: 0.8554 @ 06:10 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 0.8518 Low Jun 19
• SUP 2: 0.8477 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.8408 Low Aug 24 2023

The primary trend direction in EURGBP remains down and last Friday’s break lower confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. Initial firm resistance is at 0.8597, the 20-day EMA. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode condition, highlighting a downtrend. The break of 0.8541, Jun 9 and 12 lows, opens 0.8482, a support based on a moving average envelope study and 0.8454, a Fibonacci retracement.

USDJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 144.40 1.382 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 3: 142.84 1.236 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 2: 142.51 61.8% of the Oct 16 2022 - Jan 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 142.25 High Nov 21 2022 and intraday high
• PRICE: 141.81 @ 06:32 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 139.83/138.45 20-day EMA / Low Jun 1
• SUP 2: 137.86 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 137.43 Low May 19
• SUP 4: 136.31 Low May 17

USDJPY rallied last Friday and has traded to a fresh trend high this week. Price has breached 141.60, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Jan 16 high. The break reinforces bullish conditions and confirms a resumption of the uptrend, maintaining the bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 142.51 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Support to watch is at 139.83, the 20-day EMA. A break is required to signal a short-term top.

EURJPY TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 156.79 1.618 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 156.23 2.00 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 2: 155.59 1.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 155.38 High Jun 20
• PRICE: 154.71 @ 06:39 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 153.09/151.61 Low Jun 16 / 15
• SUP 2: 151.41 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 150.04 Low Jun 13
• SUP 4: 149.28 50-day EMA

EURJPY traded sharply higher last week and the cross is holding on to its gains. Price has cleared key resistance at 151.61, the May 2 high and an important bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the longer-term uptrend and the focus is on a climb to 155.59 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is seen at 151.41, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal a short-term top. Pullbacks are considered corrective - for now.

AUDUSD TECHS: Short-Term Pullback Appears To Be A Correction

• RES 4: 0.7029 High Feb 14
• RES 3: 0.6993 76.4% retracement of the Feb - May downleg
• RES 2: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 1: 0.6857/6900 High Jun 20 / 16
• PRICE: 0.6789 @ 06:50 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 0.6753 Low Jun 20
• SUP 2: 0.6728 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6698 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.6610 Low Jun 6

A strong rally last Thursday in AUDUSD reinforced bullish conditions and confirmed an extension of the bull cycle from May 31. The pair cleared key resistance at 0.6818, May 10 high. This reinforces bullish conditions and opens 0.6921 next, the Feb 20 high. Further out, scope is seen for gains to 0.6993, a Fibonacci retracement. The pullback this week is considered corrective. The next firm support lies at 0.6728, the 20-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 1.3585 High Jun 1
• RES 3: 1.3441 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.3361 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3302/3355 Low Apr 14 / High Jun 15
• PRICE: 1.3237 @ 07:54 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 1.3175 Low Jun 19
• SUP 2: 1.3154 Low Sep 15 2022
• SUP 3: 1.3139 Low Sep 14 2022
• SUP 4: 1.2992 50.0% retracement of the Jun - Oct 2022 bull rally

USDCAD traded sharply lower last week, confirming a resumption of the downtrend. Support at 1.3262 has been cleared, the Feb 2 low. Price has also breached an important support at 1.3226, the Nov 15 2022 low. This strengthens the bearish condition and signals scope for a move towards 1.3154, the Sep 15 2022 low and 1.3139, the Sep 14 low of last year. On the upside, firm resistance is seen at 1.3361, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 136.50 High May 11
• RES 3: 135.85 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 134.77/95 / High Jun 12 / 6
• RES 1: 133.88 High Jun 20
• PRICE: 133.57 @ 05:15 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 132.54/18 Low Jun 20 / 16
• SUP 2: 132.12 Low May 26 and key support
• SUP 3: 131.89 1.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 131.21 1.236 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Bund futures traded higher Tuesday. For now, gains are considered corrective. Resistance at 134.77, the Jun 12 high, is intact. A break of this level is required to expose key short-term resistance at 135.85, the Jun 1 high. Support at 132.97, the Jun 8 low, was cleared last week and the break opens 132.12, the May 26 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would strengthen bearish conditions.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Trend Condition Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 117.700 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 117.200 High Jun 6
• RES 2: 116.990/117.010 High Jun 12 / 7
• RES 1: 116.080/394 High Jun 20 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 115.940 @ 05:18 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 115.380 Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: 115.198 1.236 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 115.986 1.382 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 114.815 1.50 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Bobl futures maintain a softer tone and last week’s continuation lower reinforces bearish conditions. Short-term gains are considered corrective. Price has recently breached 116.250, the Jun 8 low and cleared key support at 115.870, the May 26 low. The break of this latter level strengthens bearish conditions and opens 115.198, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance to watch is 116.990, the Jun 12 high. A break would ease bearish pressure.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 105.875 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 105.655/815 High Jun 6 / 4
• RES 2: 105.325/550 High Jun 14 / 12 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 105.185 High Jun 15
• PRICE: 105.025 @ 05:14 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 104.920 Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: 104.883 1.236 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 104.740 1.50 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.695 Low Mar 10 (cont)

Schatz futures remain in a bearish mode. The contract traded lower last week and this resulted in a break of 105.330, the May 26 low and bear trigger. The move confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 104.883, a Fibonacci projection. Note that moving average studies are in a bear mode condition, highlighting a downtrend. Firm resistance is at 105.550, the Jun 12 high.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Bounce Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 97.64 High Jun 1 and the reversal trigger
• RES 3: 96.63/97.06 High Jun 9 / 6
• RES 2: 96.31 High Jun 12
• RES 1: 96.03 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 95.77 @ Close Jun 20
• SUP 1: 93.88 Low Jun 20
• SUP 2: 93.45 1.618 proj of the Feb 2 - 28 - Mar 20 price swing (cont)
• SUP 3: 93.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 92.66 Low Oct 14 2022 (cont)

A strong bounce in Gilt futures yesterday has eased short-term bearish pressure. Gains - for now - are considered corrective and the trend direction remains down. This week’s bearish start to the week confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. The contract has breached support at 94.21, the May 26 low and bear trigger. A continuation lower would open 93.45, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 96.03, the 20-day EMA.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 118.41 1.00 projection of May 26 - Jun 2 - Jun 8 price swing
• RES 3: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 2: 117.33 0.764 projection of May 26 - Jun 2 - Jun 8 price swing
• RES 1: 117.16 High Jun 16
• PRICE: 116.62 @ Close Jun 20
• SUP 1: 114.61 Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: 113.83 Low Jun 8 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 112.48 Low May 29
• SUP 4: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support

BTP futures traded to a fresh cycle high once again last Friday. The contract has recently cleared resistance at 116.36, the Jun 2 high and a short-term bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and signals scope for a climb towards 117.33, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 113.83, the Jun 8 low. A break would be bearish. Pullbacks for now, appear to be a correction.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 4489.00 1.50 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 4474.40 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 4448.00 High Jan 2008 (cont)
• RES 1: 4438.00 High Jun 16
• PRICE: 4373.00 @ 06:31 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 4357.90/4303.00 20-day EMA / Low Jun 7
• SUP 2: 4242.00 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4200.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4150.00 Low Mar 29

The Eurostoxx 50 futures uptrend remains intact and this week’s move lower is considered corrective. Resistance at 4380.00, May 29 high, was cleared last week and key resistance at 4434.00, May 19 high, has been pierced. A clear break of this hurdle would represent an important bullish development and open 4448.00, Jan 2008 high (cont). MA studies are in bull-mode condition highlighting an uptrend. Initial firm support is 4303.00, Jun 7 low.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Bullish And Sights Are on The Channel Top

• RES 4: 4576.72 2.50 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 4556.71 2.382 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 4532.08 2.236 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 4497.21 Bull channel top drawn from the Oct 2022 low (cont)
• PRICE: 4432.50 @ 06:44 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 4381.75/4342.60 Low Jun 13 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4257.39 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4154.75 Low May 24
• SUP 4: 4098.25 Low May 4 and a key support

A bull theme in S&P E-minis remains intact and this week’s pullback appears to be a correction. Last week’s gains confirmed a resumption of the uptrend, marking an extension of the bull cycle that started in October 2022. The focus is on 4497.21, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 2022 low (cont). Initial support is at 4381.75, the Jun 13 low. A firmer support lies at 4342.60, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q3) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $84.56 - High Apr 18
• RES 3: $82.47 - High Apr 25
• RES 2: $80.08 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $77.15/78.73 - High Jun 20 / High Jun 5 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: $76.15 @ 06:55 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: $71.50 - Low May 31
• SUP 2: $71.20 - Low May 4
• SUP 3: $70.06 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 4: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)

Brent futures are trading closer to its recent highs. A bear threat remains present despite the latest gains and the contract continues to trade below $78.73, the Jun 5 high. Scope is seen for a move towards $71.20, the May 4 low, ahead of $70.06, the Mar 20 low. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode position and this highlights a downtrend. On the upside, clearance of $78.73 would alter the picture.

WTI TECHS: (Q3) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: $80.39 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $78.62 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $76.35 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $72.43/75.70 - 50-day EMA / High Jun 5 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $71.37 @ 07:10 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: $66.96 - Low Jun 12
• SUP 2: $64.41 - Low May 4 and key support
• SUP 3: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number

WTI futures remain below resistance at $75.70, the Jun 5 high and the outlook remains bearish, despite the recent recovery. The pullback from $75.70 reinforces a bearish theme. Support at $67.21, May 31 low, has recently been pierced, a clear break would open $64.41, May 4 low. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position highlighting a downtrend. A break of $75.70 would signal a reversal.

GOLD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $2063.0 - High May 4
• RES 2: $2022.6 - High May 12
• RES 1: $1985.3 - High May 24 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $1934.3 @ 07:23 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: $1925.1 - Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: $1903.5 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle
• SUP 3: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle

The bear cycle in Gold remains intact. The yellow metal breached trendline support last week, drawn from the Nov 3 2022 low. The trendline intersects at $1973.5. The break of this line reinforces a bearish condition and marks a resumption of the downtrend. The focus is on $1903.5, 61.8% of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle. Initial firm resistance is $1985.3, the May 24 high. Clearance of this resistance would signal a short-term reversal instead.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Cycle

• RES 4: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.477/26.135 - High May 11 / 5 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $24.492/530 - Low Apr 25 and double midpoint / High Jun 12
• PRICE: $23.075 @ 07:58 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: $22.682 - Low May 26 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $22.284 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally
• SUP 3: $22.157 - Low Mar 21
• SUP 4: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally

A sharp sell-off in Silver yesterday reinforces a bearish theme. The recent pullback means that resistance at $24.492 stays intact for now, the midpoint of a double top reversal pattern confirmed on May 11, and signals the end of the recent May 26 - Jun 9 corrective rally. The trend outlook is bearish and the focus is on a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $22.682, the May 26 low. A break of 24.530, the Jun 12 high, would alter the picture.